Framing pitches: Another reason why Avila is awesome, and Laird sucked.

by craggt on Sep 21, 2011 12:08 PM EDT

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15093

Mike Fast has an article at Baseball Prospectus about framing pitches, he breaks it down by the numbers of who is good, who is bad and what makes good catchers good and bad catchers bad. He even has gifs of good and bad technique. The Upshot of the article: Alex Avila is very good, and Gerald Laird was very bad.

According to Fast's numbers Avila is the second best catcher this year at 16 runs saved, just behind the leader Jonathan Lucroy at 17 runs. Avila has also averaged 13 runs/ 120 Games. Avila also saved 9 runs last year while splitting time with Laird.

Laird on the other hand is terrible, he averages -15 runs/120 Games, had -12 runs for us last year and -16 runs for us in 2009. So much for the whole "At least Laird is a great defensive catcher" crap.

If we look at this year which is Avila's first full time year and 2009 which was Laird last full time year we see that its a 32 run swing. 32 runs is .1975 runs per game, or to think about what life would have been like with Laird this year, add 0.2 to every pitcher's ERA. Thats huge, and it could be a reason why the Tigers are an impressive 27-15 in one run games.

Its a great article and you guys should check it out, plus its another reason to revel in the awesomeness that is Alex Avila.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bless You Boys writing staff.

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this article is awesome

Having been both a pitcher and a catcher hrough little league, highschool and legion play. I had a coach that used to scream at me and the other catchers for hours about framing pitches and after a while it started making sense. I even watch for it now when I’m watching games and chuckle when I see a catcher making great efforts toward framing pitches.

The one example in the article that shows the difference between really animated catchers and stable motionless catchers also is causing me flashbacks so please excuse me while I go lay fetal in a corner and cry myself to sleep.

Don't Panic!

by 42jeff on Sep 21, 2011 12:47 PM EDT reply actions

This

Is also another reason why Avila is awesome and Laird sucked

Laird couldn’t look that awesome if he were wearing a suit made of duct tape.

Don't Panic!

by 42jeff on Sep 21, 2011 12:50 PM EDT reply actions

Interesting

also good use of a fan post!

Bless You Boys.com

by Kurt Mensching on Sep 21, 2011 1:19 PM EDT reply actions

Awesome article.

I love it!

Drink, and Drink, and Drink, and Drink, and Drink, and Drink, and Fight!

by Brand New Hero on Sep 21, 2011 2:08 PM EDT reply actions

What makes Avila even more amazing

Is that he’s only been catching for a few years, he could get even better at this. I think his pitching staff owes him a few steak dinners, similar to a QB taking care of his offensive line.

by craggt on Sep 21, 2011 3:37 PM EDT reply actions

First of all, this article and the research is absolutely awesome.

I hope they can find a way to account for this kind of thing in catcher WAR, since the defensive component of catcher WAR is pointless right now.

It seems almost absurd that a good catcher can save on the order of 15-20 RUNS over an average catcher, but I’m glad we have a good one.

by rcpratt on Sep 21, 2011 5:23 PM EDT reply actions

I ain't buying

I don’t agree that framing can be converted into runs scored. They have it that each framing manipulation is equal to .133 runs.

From a chef’s perspective, I’ll never understand how Balls and Strikes are cooked into Runs. It’s like trying to turn peas and carrots into a steak diner. It doesn’t matter how well it’s seasoned. It just can’t be done. It shouldn’t even be attempted. It is what it is.

by Keith-Allen on Sep 21, 2011 6:58 PM EDT reply actions

Framing pitches doesn't doesn't convert into runs scored

It turns into runs prevented. Getting borderline pitches counted as strikes instead of balls means more strikeouts, fewer walks, fewer hits, more favorable pitcher counts. There was an article about this on Hardballtalk today and the author of the original article came on to comment and defend his article.

by craggt on Sep 21, 2011 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions

It doesn't covert into runs prevented either

It’s a nice theory, I’ll give it that.

by Keith-Allen on Sep 21, 2011 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't disagree that it prevents runs to some extent...

But ore about how they actually quantify it.

by rcpratt on Sep 21, 2011 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Its not that hard statistically to figure out how much its worth

You simply look at the probabilities of say a hit, or a run, or a strikeout or a walk happening depending on whether the pitch is called a strike or a ball. For example, I don’t have the exact numbers but I believe the average batting average drops to below .200 following a 0-2 count, but it’s much higher if the count is 1-1. If the catcher does a good frame job and gets a borderline pitch called a strike the expected number or runs that the opposing team will score drops, and that drop in expected runs is credited to the catcher. The biggest effect would be a called strike 3 with a questionable pitch with a full count with 2 outs and the bases loaded, you could argue that the catcher saved a full run in that situation.
I’m not an expert in Sabermetrics or statistical analysis, and my knowledge of statistics is limited to a single probability course in college but I believe that the author’s method is fundamentally sound. And while the exact value that a frame job adds is certainly up to debate (as are all defensive statistics because judging defense is inherently subjective) I don’t think there’s any doubt that good framing has value. I don’t think anyone who’s watched baseball can say that they haven’t seen a situation where an umpire’s decision on a single pitch can change an entire game, and thus a catcher’s frame job can change an entire game.

by craggt on Sep 22, 2011 1:44 AM EDT up reply actions

Asked Matt Klaassen about this today because I'm a dork.

Comment From Ryan
Some cool research on BP the other day about the art of framing pitches and how many runs each catcher saves (or allows…) each year. What are the chances we see more of this and maybe work it into WAR someday?

Matt Klaassen:
Just wanted to note this because it is very cool work by Mike Fast (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15093 don’t know if you need a sub or not). I think this is an area where more research is in the offing, and while I don’t know who all in addition to guys like Mike are working on it (and it takes a lot of work at the moment), I imagine that eventually (no timetable) this will be something that people will want to work into total value stats. I’m speaking generally — I’m not the boss here, and I’m not qualified to implement something like that myself.

by rcpratt on Sep 22, 2011 12:46 PM EDT reply actions

I always figured that framing pitches is was unquantifiable

as are several other areas of catching, such as calling a game, “handling” pitchers, and “controlling” the running game, etc. We see All Star selections for catchers based on offensive numbers which I think is foolish because 90% of a catcher’s job is what he does behind the plate, rather than is four AB’s per game at the plate. Like UZR, RAR, and WAR, converting one aspect of a game into runs gets a bit dodgy.

I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!

by Tigerdog1 on Sep 23, 2011 1:16 PM EDT reply actions