Is Rick Porcello self-destructing?

by johnnygre on Sep 25, 2011 5:03 AM EDT

With his erratic play in the last few years, I believe that Porcello is rapidly becoming the successor of Brandon Inge as the most polarizing player in the team. A recent post at fangraphs monitored a top-10 prospect in each organization that saw his stock fall during the season. The Tigers' prospect concerned was Fields and the reason given for his failure was the team rushing him and hampering his development like it did with so many prospects before, mentioning Bonderman and Porcello among others.

The inclusion of these two names sparked a heated debate in the comments (Matt in Toledo also commented) mostly about how Bondo was consistently on the rise until he blew his arm in '07, therfore there was no lack of development on this case. But what about Porcello?

As per Baseball America Porcello was the Tigers top prospect for 2008 and 2009. However his scouting reports from these two prospects lists are quite different. Both mention a four-seam fastball that can get up to 97. But while before 2008 his secondary pitches were a slider and a curveball, prior to '09 he had a sinker he could throw as high as 95 plus a changeup. His slider was gone and his curveball was thrown much less than before. He picked up the sinker at the Tigers advice in order to get quicker outs since he was on a 75-pitch count in '08.

In his first two years in the majors Porcello showed that he is a strong finisher, posting excellent numbers in the second half of the season. In articles I read after the end of 2009 season it was mentioned that his increased use of his four-seamer led to a rise in his strikeouts and helped to better set up his secondary pitches. For last season I could see for myself that in the second half he throwing as hard as 96 after his return from Toledo and this again coincided with his improved numbers.

A story in Tigers.com before the start of this season mentioned that Porcello was determined to become a true 4-pitch pitcher by developing his secondary offerings. Kurt's article about Tigers' starters pitch selection on the contrary showed that Porcello was relying more than ever on his sinker. He is also throwing both his fastball and sinker at much lower velocities (topping out at 92 early in game and 91 later) presumably in order to command them better.

With his over-reliance on his sinker whether by accident or design, Porcello has become the Al equivalent of Charlie Morton of the Pirates, who purposely altered his pitching profile and style to emulate Roy Halladay and uses his sinker most of the time to get groundball outs. That would not be such a big deal for Porcello were it not for the fact that his sinker does not sink much and as consistently as he would like. a comparison of the stat lines of the two pitchers shows the following:

Morton: 28 GS, 2 CG, 1 SHO, 166.2 IP, 178 H (6 HR), 74 BB, 107 K, 12 HBP, 9 WP, 3.67 ERA Porcello: 30 GS, 176 IP, 205 H (18 HR), 44 BB, 100 K, 8 HBP, 12 WP, 4.76 ERA

The fact that Porcello is 14-9 in the season while Morton is 10-10 is entirely due to the superior Tigers offense as Morton is clearly the better pitcher, at least this season.

I firmly believe that in order to rediscover success and fulfill his huge potential Porcello would need to start throwing again at higher velocities and use his complete arsenal, rather than rely on a pitch that he clearly cannot master. Moreover Detroit's defense is clearly not going to make it easy on him if he plans to remain a sinkerballer. An example and possible guide to this path could be one of his newest teammates.

During his time in Seattle with a superb defense behind him, Doug Fister was throwing mostly at 88-90 and getting lots of groundouts. It took one awful start against the Orioles for Fister to alter his style and now he is throwing easily at 92-93 and topped at 94. Whether it is related or not I don't know, but his K rate also jumped and we have all seen how dominant Fister has been in a Tigers uniform.

I got carried away by my thoughts, so I 'd like to summarize in a hurry: Is Porcello self-destructing by virtually giving up on his explosive stuff that made scouts think of him as a "bona fide ace", in order to become a one-dimensional, back-of-the-rotation sinkerballer, just for the sake of getting quicker outs?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bless You Boys writing staff.

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Comments

Here's the problem with Rick

He’s a simple case of too much coaching. Rather than just trust his stuff and allow himself to pitch, Porcello got too much tinkering and changing with his mechanics in addition to his repertoire. He did have that power fastball and good sinker but like it was said above he was told to become more sinker heavy in order to get deeper into games because of the strict pitch limits they had on Rick. I think that in turn forced Rick to throw at a lower velocity so that Leyland didn’t pull him early if he was throwing 93-96 and ran out of gas as he approached pitch 75. If he sat around 88-92 then he would appear to have decent arm strength to get deeper into games but because his mechanics have been thrown so far out of whack he has trouble dialing up the heat on both types of fastballs. Remember the article on before the season on Tigers.com that said Rick was trying to become more like Roy Halladay? That he dropped his slider and added more of a Cut fastball to keep hitter off-balance? Well the problem is you have to become a tireless worker in order to do a major overhaul and you have to have the secondary stuff the Halladay has in order to remain effective.

Take off your white wig, put down your gavel and stop judging...

by Zaref346 on Sep 25, 2011 7:21 AM EDT reply actions

4 words: Give him a defense

Self destructing is bit far. Rick just never found the strikeout pitch he needed. He didn’t have it in Lakeland either. Some said he was urged to get batters out and go deeper into games with contact and the strikeout would be there when he needed it. But it just hasn’t shown up, rather from rushing, coaching, or the real life ability not living up to the scouts’ wet dreams. And if he did throw 97, like they said when he was drafted, I don’t believe he ever got there as a professional player. I’m apt to believe the radar guns weren’t accurate and/or it was exaggeration. He can still be a useful #3 pitcher though, just give him a defense. It’s not a surprise his best year in the bigs was the ear his infield was actually good.

Bless You Boys.com

by Kurt Mensching on Sep 25, 2011 10:43 AM EDT reply actions

If you take away ERA

This is his best year in the bigs. He has more innings, higher k/9 (and more K’s obviously), lower FIP, lower xFIP , W-L equal to his rookie year, is at 2.5 WAR, and a lower SIERA.

He has improved all those numbers for the three years he has been in the majors. I would have preferred he stayed in the minors another year or two (just like Turner should!) but he has steadily improved and by the time he is 25 or 26 he could actually achieve that #2 starter peak I think he was scouted to reach.

by wilsonm24 on Sep 26, 2011 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm still results driven

Maybe I’m the fogeyist sabermetric guy, I don’t know. But ERA and RA tells us what happened and I like that as one of the judgments of a pitcher.

But his improvements in FIP, FIP+, SIERA, whatever you like, tells us that we should expect better in the future. (especially if he’s given some better teammates in the infield!)

Bless You Boys.com

by Kurt Mensching on Sep 26, 2011 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions

Bonderman was a 3 WAR/season palyer before he was injured.

Not seeing how there was any failure there. Rick is still 22. Those comparisons are doing nothing for me.

by rcpratt on Sep 25, 2011 11:34 AM EDT reply actions

Yeah, most of the people commenting on that article (myself included) absolutely reamed that guy for not doing his research.

At any rate, Porcello is a league average pitcher in terms of his peripherals and he’s still 22. I still think he has #1-2 ceiling and a career as at least a very strong #3 looks likely at this point (barring injuries, knock on wood).

by thepartybird on Sep 28, 2011 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Porcello is fine

He’s just 22 years old, fer krissakes. Give the kid a chance to develop. Kid Rick is in just his third season in the majors and he already has two14 win seasons and will now have two years of pitching under the pressure of a pennant race and a do or die game 163, where he pitched brilliantly.

You have to take the velocity in scouting reports with a grain of salt. They are notorious for giving the impression that pitchers throw at a higher velocity than they actually do. A good report will say something like “he has a fastball that sits at 94 and touches 96” rather than giving us the highest number possible, increasing expectations beyond reality. I agree that I’d like to see Rick dial it up and whiz a four seamer by hitters, preferably elevated, more often. In fact, he is forced to do just that when hitters lay off the sinker that he throws low and outside the strike zone. A first pitch strike is critical to his success, and he still doesn’t have the confidence in his four seamer to throw that pitch without getting it smacked.

Rick’s slider is a decent pitch, but it still works off the four seamer. I wish he wasn’t afraid to bust the slider in on the fists of a left handed hitter. Bondo had the same fear- and he had probably the best slider in the league among RHP’s at the time. He then began to throw a change up to lefties- and lefties only. Kid Rick is different from Bonderman in that he came to the majors with four good pitches, and he could throw them all for strikes.

I’m still buying stock in Porcello. I like his poise, I like his presence on the mound, I like his repertoire, and I think he can be a very effective pitcher for a very long time. Oh, and I like his throw down skills.

I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!

by Tigerdog1 on Sep 25, 2011 12:48 PM EDT reply actions

I sometimes forget Procello is only 22.

I have a grand idea: let's win a game.

by 13194013 on Sep 25, 2011 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions

on this at least

we can be 100% in agreement.

by wilsonm24 on Sep 26, 2011 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions

At 22 years old, Porcello has 38 wins before Verlander even got his 1st.

The only Starting Pitchers in the AL with more wins at the age of 22 years old are:

CC Sabathia 43 wins
Felix Hernandez 39 wins

by Keith-Allen on Sep 25, 2011 5:36 PM EDT reply actions

and there were no NL pitchers with more wins at 22

by Keith-Allen on Sep 25, 2011 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Porcello's performance breakdown

In 38 Wins,
2.39 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 3.79 FIP, 6.3 IP per start
241 Innings, 200 hits, 57 BB, 128 K’s, 16 HR’s

In 30 loses,
8.35 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, 6.05 FIP, 5.0 IP per start
152 Innings, 232 hits, 55 BB, 73 K’s, 31 HR’s

In 20 no decisions,
4.03 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 3.97 FIP, 5.8 IP per start.
116 Innings, 137 hits, 22 BB, 72 K’s, 12 HR’s.

To sum it up, when he’s got his good stuff, he’s a tough nut to crack. But when he’s not on, he gets banged up and craps the bed. When he learns how to work his way out of trouble and builds up the arm strength to work deeper into games, he’s going to be one hell of a pitcher.

by Keith-Allen on Sep 25, 2011 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd want to see this for more pitchers before I even speculated on if it's meaningful

When he wins his ERA is worse than when he loses? This is not a surprise, right?

What are AL averages in wins, ND’s and losses?

You know I'm right about this.

by HighOPS on Sep 25, 2011 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions

It should tell you that when things go bad, they go real bad.

By watching him pitch, I know that he panics when he gets into trouble, and can’t settle down. That has much to do with his lack of experience in those situations and being so young.

Some of it has much to do with being the youngest guy on team also. The older players on the team and Leyland won’t let him get too confident and cocky. When there are some younger pitchers around him, that ask him questions, that’s when he’ll start growing more as a pitcher. Jacob Turner might be that guy who he takes under his wing.

by Keith-Allen on Sep 25, 2011 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions