Yoenis Cespedes: Tigers one of six teams pursuing the hardest
by Kurt Mensching on Jan 13, 2012 12:07 PM EST
in Detroit Tigers rumors
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PrintAlthough some already have began the rending of garments, we still continue to move forward in our tracking of Yoenis Cespedes as the Detroit Tigers (presumably) continue their vigil until the Cuban outfielder becomes a free agent.
There is actually very little real news that has occurred since our last update. So we'll start with that news, and proceed to the rumors portion of our day.
The news is, we still don't know when Cespedes will be granted free agency. Initially, that was thought to come in the latter half of the winter meetings, or during the Christmas/New Years holiday, or maybe January 15. But we really don't know. As Lynn Henning puts it, government red tape and politics are getting in the way.
So while that is sorting itself out, Cespedes will be playing baseball in the Dominican Republic's winter league. ESPN Deportes reports:
Cespedes (was) scheduled to make his professional debut Thursday against Gigantes del Cibao, said Luichy Sanchez, who works in Aguilas' front office. Cespedes initially will serve as Aguilas' designated hitter, a source close to the player said.
For the record, Cespedes went 0-for-3 with three strikeouts. Fox Sports' Jon Paul Morosi has no idea why Cespedes is taking such a risk.
Clay Davenport, who has a long history of such things, has crunched the numbers to come up with his expectations for Cespedes. (via Baseball Nation)
And they are:
He looks like he should be a solidly above-average major league player - not likely to be a Hall of Famer and maybe not even an All-Star, but someone who could place in the top third of starting center fielders for the next several years.
Davenport, you might know, is known for the Davenport Translations, in which he makes major league projections based on minor league and international numbers. So Davenport projected numbers for Cespedes based on the Cuban league, which he equates with Low-A in the USA. If you want to look at the raw results, you can find that right here. Cespedes is expected to have a batting average in the 260s, an OBP around .330 and slugging in the 460s. Davenport writes that Cespedes' statistics do not show him making a lot of use of the speed he's said to have.
Another way of looking at is EQA, or equivalent average. Again, it's a BP stat that you don't find at other sites. Cespedes would be expected to have a .260-.270 EQA, while the average center fielder is .269. Cespedes could be expected to have a 4 to 5 WARP when you include everything, which would "put him on the border of All-Star status." He'd have been the 6th best CF in 2011. If you want to put a major league face to what Cespedes might look like, Davenport says to choose the Orioles' Adam Jones. (To tout our FanPosts, here's a suggestion the Tigers trade for Jones.)
So from Davenport, the impression that I get is that it's OK to spend a few bucks on Cespedes.
OK, so all that written, now we can move on to the rumor-iest part of our day.
Six teams are said to be interested in Cespedes: Detroit, Miami, Baltimore, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox and the Indians. The Tigers are frequently included in those, and there's really no reason to believe they aren't going to be a player.
Possibly the chief competition -- the Miami Marlins, who have always been chief competition in many people's minds -- Marlins president David Samson spoke out recently (via MLBTR)
"[The club's pursuit will be] aggressive right to the point of stupidity, but not quite there," Samson said. "We think he's a perfect fit for us, but it has to be sane. [We've been] expressing interest, going to visit, making it very clear to his representatives and to him and his family that we think he should not be anywhere other than Miami. As a Cuban and someone in the DR, it makes perfect sense. We have a perfect position for him to play. It would be great."
So there you have it.
Keep calm and carry on. Sometimes I think Tigers fans have a real inferiority complex. Detroit actually does get free agents from time to time, even ones from Latin America. Maybe Cespedes will end up in Miami, but let's let this play out.
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I say stick with Jackson, Delmon, Boesch
Just because there is a goalie, doesn't mean you can't score!
Cespedes is basically still a prospect
might not be in the majors right away, so it would be more of a future move.
"King of Minutiae"
I keep saying this...it's good to hear it elsewhere
I don’t think it’s a good move at all to put Cespedes on Detroit’s 25-man roster before May 1. Culture shift and climate are going to have an effect on the guy. Let him play in Lakeland for a month before you make decisions about his next step. If he’s killing Lakeland, then he moves to Erie, Toledo, or Detroit (if we have issues to fix.)
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
How Cespedes projects in the major leagues
Clay Davenport wrote this analysis and Ian Casselberry linked it up on mlive. Very interesting and thorough analysis.
Bottom line- Cespedes projects to be a top third CFer in MLB, just shy of being an all star. Better than AJax and much better than Delmon. A good mix of power, speed, and defense, not a .300 hitter.
"King of Minutiae"
Cespedes speaks
Via Rotoworld:
Yoenis Cespedes told Dionisio Soldevila of ESPN Radio that the Marlins, Cubs, White Sox, Orioles, Tigers, Indians were teams that had a lot of interest in him.
So, I guess the news that those six teams are interested comes from the horse’s mouth.
Word yesterday from the Marlins was that they’re willing to make an offer “just short of stupid” to get Cespedes. That might get it done. But you never know. DD is willing to go as far as stupid, such as these infield platoons we’re reading about.
"King of Minutiae"
Stupid is the new Marlins
wait til they try to move Hanley and find that his salary and his tude make him worth nothing.
"King of Minutiae"
Treating this guy like the Second Coming....
…of a Ty Cobb Babe Ruth hybrid! Ridiculous! The money we are talking for this bird would net a decent 2nd and 3rd baseman both! Do that instead!
one itsy bitsy problem with that
there are no second or third baseman worth paying.
by Kurt Mensching on Jan 13, 2012 1:18 PM EST up reply actions
Too bad we can't take our money . . .
. . . and buy a generic 2B or 3B. But no, we have to have somebody in particular.
I really wonder how hard DD has tried to fix 2B and/ or 3B
we hear that he kicked the tires on Prado, and maybe Headley, but Kelly Johnson went cheap on a one year deal back to the Jays, they declined arbitration to Betemit, who is cheap, and far better than Kelly or Inge even if his defense is atrocious, and he never inquired at all on Aramis Ramirez. In fact, I wonder if they aren’t set on Inge starting at 3B again.
"King of Minutiae"
I'm not sure we should be worried about 2B
It should be fine, even if Rabtiago isn’t spectacular. I’m much more worried about 3B.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on Jan 13, 2012 2:00 PM EST up reply actions
3B is the area where the greatest upgrade could be made in the lineup
Trade Raburn and prospects not named Turner or Castellanos for O Dog and Headley.
Yeah, Hudson is over paid with his buyout, but to get Headley at a discount because of taking on the salary would be huuuuge for the top of the lineup.
Head- lee
Head- lee
Head- lee
"King of Minutiae"
The Padres aren't dumping
I know it’s a strange concept and I didn’t buy it at first, but this article is quite good.
I think the Tigers will see what’s around at the trade deadline for 3B. I think we’re perhaps content to re-evaluate our needs in late June, knowing that we should be in the race with what we have.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
Crap?
Nobody said that. Drew Smyly, Rob Brantly, and many other prospects might be very attractive to them. They DO want to dump Hudson, and he’s not one of their top five players by a long shot.
"King of Minutiae"
Ya
soft tossing AA lefties and 23 year old catchers that haven’t played above A ball have a ton of trade value. The Padres aren’t in need of wither of those guys, their farm system is already deep enought that I doubt anyone besides our top 2 interest them at all, Grandal for example is easily a much better catching prospect that Brantly.
Hudson not one of their top five guys by a long shot? who is better Heady, Mayben, Alonso, Lubke….maybe Quentin or Hundly? Maybe i’m forgetting a bunch of guys, but If he isn’t top 5 it’s close.
Hudson is not worth his contract
especially when you include the buyout at the end of this season. $ 7.5 mil for a 2B with a wOBA of .318, wRC of exactly 100, and a UZR/ 150 of negative 3.5 isn’t exactly good value. They definitely would like to dump that contract.
Who’s better on the Padres? Hundley, Headley, Denorfia, Maybin, Venable, all their starting pitchers and half of their bullpen, even after losing Bell and Adams. O Dog is basically a serviceable second baseman these days, but way over paid for the value that he provides. He’d be a decent platoon partner with Santiago for the Tigers. At least he’s an infielder, which Ryan Raburn is not.
"King of Minutiae"
The O-Dog
has been worth more than 8 fwins over the last three season, he is still a 2 win player, you are way overstating the extent to which he is overpayed.
The Padres are alway desperate and dumping somebody
Headley/ODog could probably be gotten for Oliver/Dirks/Brantley/Fields.
ODog isn’t an upgrade. Headley? Practically any MLB 3bman would be an upgrade over what we’ve got now. I think some folks over-value Headley, but again … compared to Inge/Kelly he looks pretty good.
Justin can now let the fungus grow back on his shower shoes.
Hudson had a .356 OBP vs RHP's, and .354 over the past three years
He’s a switch hitter that hits much better from the left side of the dish in terms of getting on base. Santiago hits much better batting right against LHP’s. Presumably, the current plan is to use Santiago in exactly the wrong situations, batting vs RHP’s where he had a line of .245 .301 .361 .662. Flip him around and his stat line was .320 .352 .480 .832 in 2011. AND, no Raburn fielding at second base.
At third base, Headley is the perfect fit. Perfect. Another switch hitter with three years of club control left, and an OBP of .374- best among third basemen in the league with 400 PA’s or better. Perfect. Massive upgrade.
San Diego back loaded Hudson’s contract. $ 11.5 mil is not a bad number for two years guaranteed overall, but they paid $ 4 mil of that last year, and $ 7.5 mil remains. It’s not a massive over pay, but is clearly an over pay. Taking him on would have some value to the Padres, maybe enough to bring the cost of Headley down within reason.
I still believe the fundamental problem here is that DD and JL are stuck on the inadequate players that they have at those positions, starting with Brandon Inge. They think that’s okay, and they don’t realize the value of “on base, on base, on base”, even as obvious as that should be to any observer that’s ever seen a baseball game.
"King of Minutiae"
Funny thing about Headley
Even if we got him, he’d likely just be part of the 3B platoon. I don’t see the Tigers eating Inge’s $5.5 M salary and buying out his 500k option for 2013. At least not for Chase Headley.
Headley is an adequate player, but most baseball fans probably never even heard of him. Most of his value comes from saber stats like UZR and walks. Take those 2 things away and he’s a rather mediocre player. He strikes out a lot, doesn’t hit for power, and has just .269 career batting average.
In 2010, his stat line was very very similar to Brandon Inge’s.
Headley .264 avg .327 obp .375 slg .314 woba
Inge .247 avg .321 obp .397 slg .314 woba
So I don’t know that he’d be a massive upgrade.
In 2012, Headley was better than Inge for 1st 4 months of the season. They both stunk in August, but Inge was much better in September. Most important is that Inge played well in the post-season, when it mattered most.
For 2013, most likely Headley regresses and Inge bounces back some. Inge will still suck vs right handed pitchers which is why he should be limited and be platooned, but he’s adequate vs lefties.
Check Headley's home/away splits
Get that man out of Petco, and I can almost guarantee no regression.
I’d favor trading for Headley, but in this market, I bet the Padres demand one of our top two prospects.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
This
Headley is a career .303/.364/.441 hitter away from Petco. At home, he only hits .229/.319/.336. It doesn’t really make much sense because he’s only hit 6 more homers on the road vs. at home in roughly 2100 career plate appearances over 3+ full seasons. You would think that, with those numbers, that figure would be much higher.
by Rob Rogacki on Jan 15, 2012 10:26 AM EST up reply actions
It's like Petco is a bizarro world for him
His BABIP at Petco is .297 and on the road it’s .374.
Exactly
3B are going for a premium this off season. Even taking on O Dogs contact isn’t going to make them lessen the deal that much. 7.5 million for a 2WAR player isn’t over paying…at all considering 1 win is worth about 5mil or so.
Bottom line is that there isn’t much out there for 2b or 3b so upgrading isn’t as easy as “just going to get em”. The prospects we would give up would hurt a farm system that is still pretty barren after the Florida trade from a few years back.
Honestly, how does either Headley or O Dog fix the top half of the line-up? Ohh they don’t…at all. Since 2B and 3B are the only spots we have that really need filled and if you can’t fix the top of the line-up when you fill those spots then you are just wasting your time.
Some times I think people just want to bitch about DD not making a trade so that when he finally does they can bitch about him giving up to much. Basically, people are just going to bitch no matter what.
This organization doesn't value #1 and 2 hitter skills
It is what it is. Leyland doesn’t care much for OBP. I’m sure DD is aware of OBP and it’s affect on winning games, but as long as we keep Leyland at the helm, DD will focus his attention on the skill sets that DD likes (power arms) and Leyalnd likes (Power bats, RBI’s, and versatility?).
Speed and OBP are what we would typically think of from a 1 or 2 hitter. Our organization has attained very few players with this skill set…via draft or free agency or trade. The only place where we seem to acquire speed is when we sign 17 year old latin players that have glove and speed, but nothing else. I can’t remember adding a strong OBP player through the draft or free agency expect for players where the OBP was a result of other skills (like high batting average or general awesomeness).
It sounds like DD didn’t even consider an offer to some of the players that would profile well as #1 or 2 hitters (Reyes, DeJesus)
I’ve heard talk of finding a player that would allow us to not have Jackson as leadoff, but it’s usually been based on his strikeout numbers (and I personally don’t care how much he K’s if he can get is OBP over .350). It just doesn’t seem like a priority for the team.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
Right
but when replying to the people complaining about the 2B and 3B situation, they also say how important the top of the order is to fix. I am just waiting for them to come up with guys that are available to fix the 2B and 3B situation that address the top of the order.
To this point I haven’t seen anything offered up that does that from the main proponents of the “DD is being negligent” crowd.
They did get Damon and Polanco
PP had a solid OBP more because of base hits, and he was the ultimate contact hitter, which is really a different skill that a lot of managers like in the 2 hole.
Damon sort of hedged their bet on AJax leading off, but fit nicely into the 2 slot when AJax worked out fairly well in his rookie year.
Then, they got weird and moved Damon to the 3 slot, and he performed horribly, when Magglio went down. I do wonder if they know what they’re doing.
"King of Minutiae"
It's no Petco
According to Baseball Reference’s park factor rating, Comerica is consistently around 100, which is average. Petco is usually in the low 90s, indicating that it’s heavily biased towards pitchers.
If you’re more into park dimensions, Petco is bigger than Comerica (by a wide margin) everywhere except dead center field.
Perhaps the hitting philosophies are different too
In a big pitchers park, a hitter really has to put the ball in play more often. It’s about hitting singles or doubles and moving the base runners up more than 1 base at a time. You can’t depend on the long ball to score most of the runs. Walks are less efficient in pitchers parks.
The Tigers have been going after aggressive hitters ever since moving to CoPa. At the old Tiger Stadium, walking and hitting homers was a strategy that worked very well, but I don’t think we have the home run hitters or the ball park to make that strategy work again.
I think the pursuing of aggressive hitters has less to do with the ballpark
and more to do with DD’s general philosophy of how to build a baseball team. We have to take any of the moves R**** S**** made with a huge grain of salt since he was, you know, a moron.
Santiago's problem
is that Raburn crushes lefties.
Over the last 3 years vs Lefties, in 408 AB’s, he has 26 Homers, .282 AVG, .355 OBP, and .902 OPS.
Santiago, over 3 years vs Lefties, in 154 AB’s, has 4 Homers, .305 AVG, .351 OBP, and .754 OPS.
But in a platoon situation, you'd still be getting the lesser version of Santiago
If Raburn hits like he can, there is no comparison between he and Ramon. But that doesn’t mean you have to force him into the infield. And if you put him into the outfield, all three of the guys out there hit lefties better than they hit righties.
The ideal platoon seems to be first half Boesch, second half Raburn, both in the outfield. That, or trade Delmon for a real infielder.
"King of Minutiae"
Smyly isn't a soft tosser
His FB is about average for a left hander.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on Jan 15, 2012 6:53 PM EST up reply actions
oh you and your "facts"
"I'm a simple man. I like pretty, dark-haired women and breakfast food" - Ron Swanson
by rock n rye on Jan 13, 2012 2:01 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
the tigers should stop spending money on players and invest in genetic engineering
by jonathan.onne on Jan 14, 2012 5:51 AM EST up reply actions
If it meant we could clone Justin Verlander and have Verlander 2.0 be our No. 5 pitcher, I'd be all for it
"I believe in a good kick in the ass. This— I believe. " -- Walker Percy
I tweet about stuff sometimes @jackhitts.
I would like to land him
but I think most people are just pushing for him for the sake of any deal getting done: this has been a horrendously slow offseason. The fact that he’s already 26 and is going to require some minor league seasoning scares me off.
Chicks dig me, because I rarely wear underwear and when I do it's usually something unusual
Considering his legal situation . . .
. . . this might not get resolved until during the season. He’s asking the DR to expedite granting him residency status—it usually takes a year—and why would they do that?
His waiting period for residency in the DR is apparently up on Jan 15th.
Once he is eligible for DR citizenship, then he can be classified as a free agent in MLB, and they’re all very much aware that this has been coming. He’d then need the work visa to get to the US.
"King of Minutiae"
Him playing right now is riding-in-a-car-with-Suh stupid
Morosi is right. The risk of severely pulling a hamstring, taking a ball off the hand, etc. is much too great to justify whatever additional buzz he could generate.
Not to mention he’s rusty and baseball is a game of failure…so he really could be awesome but suck mightily in a small sample.
How could the hype get any more intense anyway?
Pass
Save the money for a starting pitcher and for the contract extensions that the Tigers will have to do in the next couple of years. Giving a guy who has been playing the equivalant of A ball the kind of money that is being speculated is absurd.
He was also setting HR records
in the equivalent of that A Ball league. He’s considered the best of this generation to come from Cuba. Kendry Morales and Alexei Ramirez have proven to be All-Star caliber players in MLB. If this guy is just as good or better than them, then he’ll be worth $8 million a year easily.
Are you sure he's considered the best of his generation?
I’ve read he’s not the best on his National team.
Do you have any credible source calling him “the best of his generation” in Cuba?
Justin can now let the fungus grow back on his shower shoes.
I believe that's what Kevin Goldstein called him.
on the other hand, as Clay Davenport pointed out, another player in Cuba had even better stats than Mr Cespedes and the same number of HR in fewer at bats
by Kurt Mensching on Jan 13, 2012 3:05 PM EST up reply actions
Goldstein would be a credible source, no doubt about it
I’ve read both sides. Some say he’s got more potential than anyone in Cuba, others say there are guys on the Cuban national team that are much better.
When I read his .333 BA was good enough for something like 42nd best in his league, that sorta made me wonder.
I’m not saying he’ll be a bust. He is supposed to be better than Alexei. And Alexei has had a fine career so far. But, Alexei plays SS. Cespedes, from everything I’ve read, will have to make his impact with his bat. He’s not a ‘poor’ fielder, but I’ve not read a projection for him yet that stated he was GG caliber. Also, that his speed will not translate into an impact number of stolen bases. All that scares me a bit. His bat will pretty much fully determine whether the investment pays off. And at 26, he’s only played at about a High-A level.
If the price tag gets above $50MM over 6 years, do we sign him? I don’t know, that’s one helluva commitment for that kind of risk.
Justin can now let the fungus grow back on his shower shoes.
I'm guessing his glove would play well at a corner
Most of what I’ve read is that he’s more than capable in CF. If that’s the case, he may very well be GG caliber in a corner spot if he can make the adjustment. (And since GG’s aren’t handed out because of defense anyhow, we should just say that he’ll probably be a plus defender from a corner spot.)
I agree that his legs won’t get him many SB on the Tigers – we still have Leyland, right? But I can see some speed being valuable in 1st to 3rd, 2nd to home situations. To me, Boesch’s speed is valuable to the team but he’s not going to put up any meaningful SB numbers.
If the tools are there, and if he adjusts, he’ll have value. If we go with that Adam Jones comp, which seems fair, Jones is projected to make 5.8M in 2012 (Arb2) and probably 8M next year before hitting free agency. Those numbers line up well with the reported Cespedes contract demands. (Of course, Jones is more proven, but perhaps Cespedes has a higher ceiling.)
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
Here's a few quotes:
“He’s a tremendous talent—arguably the best all-around player to come out of Cuba in a generation. He’s a legitimate centerfielder with plus power and speed and is in his prime.” – Kevin Goldstein
"He might be the best to come out of Cuba," said Ismael Cruz, the Toronto Blue Jays’ special assistant to the general manager. "The question for everyone is how much you want to pay for that, and that is up to each team to decide." LINK
One general manager referred to Cespedes’s five tools and said, "All of them are off the charts." Others wonder if he can play center field in the majors, but one scout who has seen him play in competitions in four countries said he had uncanny defensive instincts and played with heart. The scout added that within "a few years, he will be one of the two or three best center fielders in baseball." As for his speed, he has been rated as a 7 on a scale from 2 to 8.
Cespedes is built like a shit brickhouse
He’s 6 foot tall and 215 pounds.
Wilken Ramirez, 6-2, 190 pounds.
I thought that was intentional.
I liked “shit brickhouse”.
by thepartybird on Jan 14, 2012 12:46 AM EST up reply actions
K-A ... thank you for those quotes. Very nice, upon request.
Based on such hyperbole … what would you have the Tigers pay?
I’ve said all along that if the Tigers can sign Cespedes the infulx of talent for the team in ’13 when you combine Cespedes to Turner/Castellanos would be huge.
But is he worth $8-10MM a year? Especially considering he’ll play LF? Could the Tigers do better?
I can’t decide.
Justin can now let the fungus grow back on his shower shoes.
the latest weeble-wobble out of nattering class
said he’s fallen back to being more in the $32m range again. but lord only knows.
by Kurt Mensching on Jan 13, 2012 4:17 PM EST up reply actions
At 5 or 6 years and $32MM?
I’d hope DD is ‘all in’.
That’s a risk worth taking.
Geez, I like the Tigers future. Adding Cespedes would only make it better. At least, the possibilities better.
But at $50MM, I think it starts to not make any sense.
Justin can now let the fungus grow back on his shower shoes.
I really can't even speculate as to what is a responsible amount to give this guy
Sounds like there is no questioning his skills, but whether he can take them to MLB and produce against major league pitching is another story. It’s a big gamble, but could be very much worth it. At a minimum, they’d have a solid defensive CF’er and could deal AJax for another piece.
"King of Minutiae"
Is Aroldis Chapman a fair comp?
I don’t know the answer to this, but I’m tempted to say, “yes”. Chapman had about as much hype and similar amazing tools. It’s hard to compare position players and pitchers, but both were relative unknown quantities with high ceilings. With Miami’s recent quotes, the price might go higher than Chapman, but I don’t think he’ll sign above 45M total.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
Just don't like that deal Ajax for another piece.
The kid plays lights out defense every game.Last year was only his second season in the bigs.He is a keeper in my book.
Like I said below, $7-8 M per year tops
$8 -10 is pushing it. If we had a hole in CF, then it would be worth paying extra for. But for us, he’d likely just be a corner outfielder.
bad examples
I don’t think anybody wants to pay Kendrys Morales or Alexei Ramirez $8million a year these days….
What would Yzerman do?
A freak injury like Kendrys scares you?
He hit a walk-off grand slam homerun, and broke his leg at home plate when the team was celebrating.
Here’s a refresher: MLB.com
Not sure what bad there is to say about Alexei Ramirez. He’s been one of the top 5 shortstops in the game for the last few years.
Both are probably worth 8M as free agents
Kendrys is a little brittle for my tastes. He’s had injuries beyond that freak celebration injury – and he’s a 1B/DH type guy, so the offense he provides has to be taken in the context of the position. I’d still give him 8M/yr if I had a spot for him and it the term was short enough.
And you’re right about Alexei Ramirez. If he hit the market as a free agent today, I’m sure he’d get 5/50 or better.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
Yeah
I’d give Alexi 8 mil a year easy.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on Jan 15, 2012 6:54 PM EST up reply actions
He has more tools and upside than anyone in our current outfield
So. I want the guy. If he’ll take Delmon Young type money, $7 or 8 million a year, then he’s definitely worth the risk. If there’s no surplus value in doing a long-term deal, then I’ll pass. The max offer should be about a 7 year / $50 million contract. . But that’s the limit. Anything more and he could turn into an Alex Rios type nightmare.
I’m content with current outfield situation though. I think we have 3 potential All-Stars with AJax, Young, and Boesch. We also got 2 decent backups with Dirks and Raburn. We can always throw Kelly out there too. There is no reason to panic.
We have just a few weakness on the team and those really aren’t question marks. We know exactly what to expect from those platoons at 3B and 2B. We’ll get some average to above average defense at 3B, some crappy hitting vs Right handed pitchers, and acceptable hitting vs left handed pitchers. At 2B, we’ll get a little bit of everything, good, bad, and ugly.
Our 5th starter will be a showcase of our minor league system. This is where our bread and butter is. That’s home grown starting pitching. A few prospects will emerge and show promise, and those guys will likely get shipped out before the trade deadline to shore up our other wants and needs.
Good point, the platoons aren't really question marks
I agree that 3B is known. It’s not good, but it’s not a question mark either. 2B is more of a wild card to me because Rayburn is so damn inconsistent. However, there’s a known floor at 2B in Santiago. If Raburn sucks in the first half (which seems likely), we’ll simply give Santi the majority of the AB’s and it’s pretty well known what he’ll do.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
2B / 3B Platoons are not good...
The 2B/ 3B platoons may be known…but they are not good.
Need better top of the order OBP players…likely to come from these two positions in the near future given the configuration of the team with current players – unless they are able to replace D. Young with better speed/defense and address 2B/3B simultaneously.
Still like to move D. Young and combo of cash and/or prospects for Prado/Headley/Neil Walker types or surplus players from Angels/Cards/Reds/Etc and add FA LF or ride Dirks/Kelly/Raburn platoon.
Bottome line is need better flow in the order…i.e. ability to drop Jackson to 9-hole.
We know who the platoons are and we know they aren't good
Therefore, they aren’t question marks.
by Rob Rogacki on Jan 14, 2012 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
That's much shorter than what I said...thanks
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
yoenis cespedes
i have to agree with mr.allen,yeah, would be awsome to have but i think were more than capable in the outfield.capable is o.k. too.i get why we have all the hand wringing over 2nd and 3rd base but my take is dd isnt going to go in another direction at 3rd with inge under contract.yes,an upgrade would be great at 3rd but i think im willing to trust dd in seeing how the season goes and adjust at the deadline if needed,he proved it last summer he ll do what hes gotta do to get us better so im willing to be patient and not panic and make essentially lateral signing or trades.i think were fine at 2nd and im sure dd will adjust there if needed also.all this being said id love for dd to sign oswalt i would be happy with that being our only “splash” this off season.
by tigerfaninboston on Jan 13, 2012 3:26 PM EST reply actions
why
is the worry about him. last time i checked, 2nd and 3rd base aren’t the best. below avg would be sayin it best. i think more attention should be paid to these two problem areas. would it be nice to have him…yes. but we have a better then avg outfield!
what players do you think are realistic possibilities for these problems
by Kurt Mensching on Jan 13, 2012 9:53 PM EST up reply actions
Santiago for Brandon Phillips
Inge and Kelly for Longoria. Make it happen, DD.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
I hope you're joking about this
Because Andrew Friedman would have to be hitting crack from a gravity bong to even let it go through his mind that this is a viable trade.
"I believe in a good kick in the ass. This— I believe. " -- Walker Percy
I tweet about stuff sometimes @jackhitts.
Now, we just need to find a scheme to make THAT guy the GM of the Rays!
Which, coincidentally, is also the main plot of the screenplay I’m working on and am planning on pitching to Judd Apatow. Think Pinnaple Express meets Moneyball.
"I believe in a good kick in the ass. This— I believe. " -- Walker Percy
I tweet about stuff sometimes @jackhitts.
Prado, Headley, Maicer Izturis, Callaspo, Polanco, Hudson
and if all else fails, Betemit is better than Kelly/ Inge.
It’s just a matter of what you have to give up for them. I’d part with any prospects not named Turner or Castellanos.
"King of Minutiae"
Yes, but...
Any prospects not named Turner or Castellanos aren’t too attractive to any of the teams holding the players you mentioned.
by Rob Rogacki on Jan 14, 2012 11:25 AM EST up reply actions
I think they would be
and you can include some players with major league experience as well, excluding the core group of starters. The Angels, for example, have an abundance of infielders and there is no way on earth that they could even ask for Turner or Castellanos in exchange for Callaspo or Izturis. I think that DD is just being negligent by failing to address the team’s needs.
"King of Minutiae"
I think DD is doing more than you give him credit for
DD hasn’t really ever been a “smoke before fire” type of GM. He has a history of pulling stuff seemingly out of nowhere. Just because there’s no “TIGERS ARE INTERESTED IN THIS GUY” rumors doesn’t mean DD isn’t trying to upgrade at certain positions.
And if he honestly thinks we’re OK at 2nd and 3rd going into next season, then I will trust the organization’s judgment. I can’t even win the World Series with the Tigers in video games, so I’ll leave the real deal to the professionals.
by Rob Rogacki on Jan 14, 2012 11:40 AM EST up reply actions
Yup
The guy will explore all the options available and then drive fans nuts by making moves that they don’t understand.
Remember the whining after the Doug Fister deal?
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on Jan 15, 2012 6:56 PM EST up reply actions
No, I don't
I remember a lot of “well, let’s see” followed by some “ok this could actually work” followed by “YEAH BUDDY.”
I like what that blogger guy had to say in the second link of yours
by Kurt Mensching on Jan 15, 2012 11:26 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, he's pretty good
The other two? Complete hacks.
by Rob Rogacki on Jan 15, 2012 11:45 PM EST up reply actions
Tigerdog...put yourself in the Angles shoes
You have a really good team on a paper and one good extra UT piece in Izturis or Callaspo. Would you like to trade your proven MLB, IF depth for prospects like Brantley or Smyly? I wouldn’t.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
by momotigers on Jan 15, 2012 9:44 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The Angels want bullpen help.
A club like the Braves or Padres are more likely to be interested in prospect types. San Diego has enough depth in catching prospects, but I’m just using examples.
"King of Minutiae"
Not really
You keep saying Izturis/Callaspo when prompted for the 2b/3b move the Tigers should make. I’m just saying that I bet the Angels stance is that although they seem like extra parts, they’re not for sale…unless you bring something silly to the table.
The Angels bullpen is not bad. It’s not exactly lights out at the end of games, but I think it’s actually a little deeper than the Tigers pen when you consider the 6th inning and situational guys. Regardless, we have zero bullpen depth to trade. I’m not unhappy with our ‘pen, but we’re not sitting on a bunch of extra guys.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
Betemit signed with PIT, didn't he?
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on Jan 15, 2012 6:55 PM EST up reply actions
They were supposedly going after him when they signed McLouth
But they have Pedro Alvarez, and then traded for Casey McGehee after the Brewers signed Aramis. They’d have no use for all three of them.
As far as I’m aware, Wilson is still a FA.
Cespedes
While I am sure the kid is talented I have too ask is he somebody the Tigers really need? Jackson is a talented CF with great speed. Yes he strikes out way too much and he certainly isn’t a leadoff hitter, but I have to believe he can get better at both. In fact I would rather see him hitting in the 7 or 8 hole. My concern is more at 2nd and 3rd. The idea of Raburn and Santiago at 2nd and Kelly and Inge at 3rd scares me more. At a point in time your lineup would look something like this
Jackson CF
Boesch RF
Young LF
Cabrera 1B
Martinez DH
Peralta SS
Raburn 2B
Inge 3B
Laird C
That would just be a loss no matter who they play
Inge 3B
Boesch
Oh well
My typing skills are as bad as the bottom 3 in that line up
No tigers22
I am not saying Laird over Avilla. I am saying that there will be games when the team is facing a real tough left hander and that will be the lineup for that day
I find it funny that you consider that lineup an automatic loss
When it still includes Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Jhonny Peralta, and Brennan Boesch. If this hypothetical game is in August or later, add Ryan Raburn to that list.
Hah
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on Jan 15, 2012 6:56 PM EST up reply actions
I don't believe the Cespedes is really a move for the 2012 team
If I’m the Tigers, I would expect Cespedes to need time in the minors in 2012. The kid needs time to adjust to the culture and the play while the Tigers would need time to see exactly what they have in the kid before know how exactly he’ll fit during the rest of the contract (which looks to be 4+ years). In the meantime, Detroit plays with Boesch, Jackson, and Young. At some point in time, 2013 at the latest, Cespedes replaces Young.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
maybe keith-allen or someone else knows the answer to this,does inge have a buyout in his contract for this season? if so, does anyone know the number? im pretty sure there is a club option for next season,but im hoping theres not! just continuning my thoughts from yesterdays post.
by tigerfaninboston on Jan 14, 2012 11:18 AM EST reply actions
Inge only has a $500k buyout for next season
His $5.5 million is guaranteed this season
by Rob Rogacki on Jan 14, 2012 11:32 AM EST up reply actions
wow
thanks handsomerob1! i know there is a site that gives contact length and $,could someone give me the website add please? thanks all!!
by tigerfaninboston on Jan 14, 2012 9:02 PM EST reply actions
thanks handsomerob1.i saw the website mentioned here on byb last summer and i couldnt remember it !
by tigerfaninboston on Jan 15, 2012 9:42 AM EST reply actions
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