Victor Martinez injured: The links roundup
by Kurt Mensching on Jan 18, 2012 11:11 AM EST
in Detroit Tigers Links
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PrintRoar of the Tigers | Detroit baseball for strange people.
Sam sums it up best: I’M NOT OK WITH THIS.
Jon Paul Morosi writes:
"Even without Martinez, the Tigers are the most talented team in the AL Central. They have three players who finished among the top 12 in AL MVP balloting last year: Justin Verlander (first), Miguel Cabrera (fifth), and Alex Avila (12th). No other team in the division put a player on that list. In fact, no other team in the division finished with a winning record. The gap between the Tigers and everyone else in the division is large enough that they should win the division despite Martinez’s absence."
The BP First Take: Wednesday, January 18
Daniel Rathman of Baseball Prospectus writes:
Martinez’s absence certainly is not ideal, but that’s mostly because it will require the Tigers to commit two spots to the least-important position on the roster. The average American League DH batted .265/.340/.429 last season, and any of the aforementioned timeshare options should produce above that level for Detroit in 2012. This is not "disastrous news" for the Tigers, as Jon Paul Morosi suggested. It’s a bump in the road—but not one that should prevent Detroit from winning its second consecutive division title.
Loss of Victor Martinez a crisis for Tigers, but there are solutions -- The Detroit News
Lynn Henning writes:
Dave Dombrowski's voice during a Tuesday conference had the tone of a man who had just watched his house burn down.
I'll be honest here. I've listened to Dombrowski speak a lot, whether on TV, the radio, teleconferences, whatever. I do not believe he sounded any different yesterday than any other time.
Who will replace Victor Martinez? Tigers should take shot at Prince Fielder -- The Detroit News
This piece is by Tony Paul. Suggestion 1 is a pipe dream, but 2 through 5 sound about right.
The Victor Martinez Injury And The Rest Of The AL Central -- Baseball Nation
SB Nation's Grant Brisbee writes:
They'll almost certainly sign a one-year stopgap like Carlos Peña, Johnny Damon, or Casey Kotchman, and when the Tigers get one of these options, they'll be exactly what they were: the prohibitive favorites of the AL Central.
Tigers’ options without Victor Martinez -- Beck's Blog
Jason Beck breaks down possible signings into categories (and shows how a blog can be a wonderful sidebar for traditional-format writers).
Victor Martinez injury a big blow for Tigers -- SweetSpot Blog - ESPN
Still, it's a blow for the Tigers -- although as the Cardinals proved in 2011 with Adam Wainwright, there is no such thing as a lethal blow. I do wonder if this makes it even more likely they'll swing a trade for another starting pitcher, as has been rumored. Matt Garza, anyone?
How Can the Tigers Replace Victor Martinez? -- FanGraphs Baseball
Eno Sarris writes:
It’s not the hole of a departing super-star, not any more. His bat can still give the team twenty runs of production at the plate, but his defense and base-running have slowly pushed him down from his five-win peak down to a more average neighborhood. With Alex Avila‘s competence behind the plate, and Gerald Laird in house to be the backup, the Tigers are looking to try and replace about two-and-a-half wins of offense out of their designated hitter position. ... It may not look the same, and Tigers fans will miss Martinez’ smile — and his son, if rehab takes them away from the team — but a little platoon creativity and a timely free agent signing should help them replace his production.
Veteran hitters abound in majors, but all have their question marks -- Detroit Free Press
John Lowe recaps pretty much everything and suggests or shoots down a few options.
Drew Sharp: Tigers should mope for a day, then sign Vladimir Guerrero -- Detroit Free Press
I haven't begun my deeper research but there are definitely reasons to like Vladdy, I agree.
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Vlad has been on the decline since mid-2010
But I’d take a shot with a guy like Carlos Pena or Derrick Lee or Damon, if they would come in on a 1-year deal.
And I think Carlos Lee is in the final year of his deal – a mid-level prospect for Lee, if Houston is indeed willing to eat some salary, could be useful too.
Regardless, I wonder if there might be more than one move coming Detroit’s way.
by CoreyMichaelDC on Jan 18, 2012 11:20 AM EST reply actions
And I have no problems with the link above
It was actually a good piece, which I have never said before about Mr. Sharp.
by Rob Rogacki on Jan 18, 2012 11:27 AM EST up reply actions
You sure you didn't mean Lynn Henning?
He bugs me.
Drink, and Drink, and Drink, and Drink, and Drink, and Drink, and Fight!
by Brand New Hero on Jan 18, 2012 11:45 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Word.
Sharp is an idiot troll.
I'm owner/editor of The Wayne Fontes Experience a deputy editor at Bless You Boys, host the Bless You Boys Podcast and co-host The Knee Jerks podcast.
I simply don't read Drew Sharp
I don’t think that he actually believes what he’s writing all of the time, but rather simply picks positions based on some perceived need to be a “contrarian.”
"Virtually all tactical ploys—the sacrifice bunt, the stolen base, the hit-and-run—operate on average to reduce run scoring." -- Eric Walker
I'd say Vladdy
Pena could work (You’ve gotta over look the low average and look at his on base, guy walks alot). What about Matsui? Any of the others, and i’d say just put someone in house ie raburn dirks in. Either way this sucks…
Country Strong
I like Vladdy too
I think he’s the kind of hitter than DD and Leyland like the most. A guy who puts the ball in play and hits for a good average.
This also begs another question......
.. as to why so many Tiger runners have been injured going from third to home. Martinez and his powerful stats are singularly irreplaceable but a Vlad or Pena(Maybe another Inge at the plate) could work. Get a good 5th starter to make up the games lost by the Martinez injury.
No need to panic
We are still the favorites to win the central. If we have to sign someone I’d go Pena but I’d still rather sign Oswalt to round off the rotation and save the prospects for the trade deadline.
by GoLionsGoTigers on Jan 18, 2012 12:00 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I don't think it is panic we are witnessing.
With a day to let this bad news settle, I think most Tigers fans realize that Detroit will probably still win the Central Division.
However, I think we are all disappointed because we had a legitimate belief that the Tigers were realistic contenders to represent the AL in the World Series… and a day after VMart’s injury we are realizing that a world championship in 2012 is now not nearly as likely.
"All aboard! There is plenty of room."
Brennan Boesch Bandwagon Conductor
If we still believe that we will win the Central
We still have a fine chance in the playoffs. Especially if we have VMart back in August or September in time for the playoffs. Then, the team is no different.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
Except losing Betemit and .400 hitting Magglio
and you can’t expect Inge and Kelly to continue hitting .350, nor perfection out of Valverde, Verlander and Fister.
The team was already a bit worse than the end of last season, before losing Victor. Moves need to be made.
"King of Minutiae"
Maggs
Had 43 AB’s in Sept/Oct when he was hitting 400 and drove in 7 runs and scored 7 runs…in about 5 weeks of play
Betemit had 36 AB in Sept/Oct and hit 278 and drove in 6 runs and scored 5.
It’s not like these two were carrying the team, quit trying to make it look like the sky is falling because we don’t have two part time players that had a decent 5 weeks.
Quit twisting my comments
Did I say the sky was falling? No.
Quit stalking every comment that I make.
"King of Minutiae"
Kinda hard
When you make the same over exaggerated or incorrect comments in every thread.
I tried to leave the “We are a worse team now then the end of last year” thing alone, but you have stated the same incorrect thing about 5 times in the last month. Sorry if I don’t want you to continue to spread inaccuracies or opinions as facts.
How did I twist your comments? I just added additional information to what you said about Maggs and Betemit to allow people to make a complete and informed decision. Just because those facts don’t support your argument doesn’t mean that I am “stalking” you or “twisting” your comments, it just means I am being informative.
I didn’t say you said the sky was falling, I said you were making it look like the sky was falling. I am just as entitled to my opinion on the loss of two part time players as you are.
Overexaggerated? Yeah he is, sometimes
Incorrect, no. We are a worse team than the end of last year. We lost a lot of talent in Maggs, Guillen, Betemit, and Penny (though that last one is debatable). Aging talent, but talent nonetheless, and there haven’t been any moves to replace any of that lost talent yet.
I think it is more debatable than fact
Boesch in RF is better than Maggs in right field at this point in their careers (and last year). Young is a better offensive OF than Maggs as well, at this point in their careers. As sad as it is, Delmon (according to UZR) was a better OF than Maggs last year as well, as was Boesch. And I think it is arguable that Dirks brings more off the bench than Maggs would with improved defense in both RF and LF (than the guys he would be replacing) and a left handed bat. So better offense and better defense equals worse?
Carlos had a good 13 AB in Sept/Oct, but I would expect the same type of offensive production out of Raburn in Sept so to me that is a wash.
Betemit I think his loss is pretty debatable as well. I don’t think even the biggest Inge hater can expect him to hit .177 for another year again. I am not expecting the world out of him but 225 would hopefully be the low end for him…ohh who am I kidding 3B is a crap pile, but the difference between a crap pile and a mess of inadequacy is offset by the improvements in the outfield.
The loss of Penny I would argue is improvement by subtraction. I have been a fairly minority in stating that Penny did what he was paid to do, but that doesn’t mean that we aren’t improved by him not being there. Pretty much anything we put in his place will be an overall team improvement.
So is he incorrect? Arguably yes. Is he entitled to his opinion that we are a worse team? most definitely. Am I allowed to show why I think his opinion is incorrect? I don’t see why not.
I also
didn’t even go into the addition of Dotel to the pen and the benefit of having G$ to provide Avila some much needed rest to overall team improvement.
The loss of VMart changes things a lot, but these arguments by TD1 have been going on for much longer than VMart has been hurt.
you two are kind of made for each other!
by Kurt Mensching on Jan 19, 2012 10:21 AM EST up reply actions
You're overlooking the fact that Peralta and Avila likely won't repeat their 2011 seasons
Young’s UZR was respectable last season, but it was easily the highest of his career. Before 2011, he’s never had a UZR better than -10.0. You have to compare Betemit to Don Kelly moreso than Brandon Inge because we’re (apparently) looking at a platoon there as well. Kelly is better defensively, but I doubt he repeats his offensive numbers this season with increased playing time. Dotel’s addition to the bullpen essentially offsets the loss of AlAl for at least half the season (and I’d be willing to bet he’s out longer than that).
by Rob Rogacki on Jan 19, 2012 11:43 AM EST up reply actions
I don't like this argument about un-sustainable performance
You think Avila and Peralta won’t be as good. Agreed…I’ll see your Avila/Peralta and raise you Verlander, Fister, and Valverde. Heck, Cabrera probably won’t hit .344 again.
I also feel that we’ll see better overall years from Jackson, Boesch, Inge, Scherzer, and Porcello. I think 2B will yield better results by having scrapped the Rhymes/Sizemore experiment. I think Balester is an upgrade over Perry. I think Dotel is more reliable than Alburquerque. I think our #5 SP will be better than Penny.
So yeah, there will be guys that regress a bit, but I think the overall net effect is a wash.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
Exactly what I was trying to say
The loss of a couple of minor role players is not going to make us a worse team, especially since we have acquired people to off set those losses.
The point is that it is arguable either way, and it shouldn’t be stated as fact either way.
Well, I'm not sure that the 2012 Tigers can compete in the playoffs
I think they were overmatched in 2011, and as it currently stands the roster has not improved.
DD signed Dotel, but lost Al Al. The Tigers are hopeful that Boesch can play the whole year, but now VMart is out for a significant portion.
In order to compete in 2012 for a world championship, DD needs to add another intimidating bullpen arm, replace VMart’s production, and find another bat to increase the teams overall production in order to compete with the Angels, Rangers, Rays, Yankees, etc for the AL pennant.
If you think the Tigers have enough offense, then go and look at the Yankee’s offense, or the Texas lineup. And if you think the Tiger’s have a good bullpen for 2012, then again, go and look at the pitchers that the Rangers can call upon.
"All aboard! There is plenty of room."
Brennan Boesch Bandwagon Conductor
Well we have Verlander and they don't
He’s the equalizer.
And don't forget that Verlander was less than Verlander-esque in the 2011 playoffs
Stupid rain.
"Virtually all tactical ploys—the sacrifice bunt, the stolen base, the hit-and-run—operate on average to reduce run scoring." -- Eric Walker
AlAl was less than intimidating in the playoffs
and Dotel has a World Series ring, so there’s that
"I'm a simple man. I like pretty, dark-haired women and breakfast food" - Ron Swanson
by rock n rye on Jan 18, 2012 1:19 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
The Rangers bullpen consists of Neftali Feliz, Joe Nathan, and a bunch of nobodys
I’ll take Benoit and Valverde over their back end any day of the week.
I thought Feliz is in the rotation now?
or are the going to move him back if/when they sign Darvish
"I'm a simple man. I like pretty, dark-haired women and breakfast food" - Ron Swanson
by rock n rye on Jan 18, 2012 1:52 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Ogando won't be able to do what he did in the playoffs over a 162 game span
So his effectiveness will be limited. And I forgot about Adams. I’d still take our bullpen.
I think it is close
With no Al-Al, I think their bullpen is deeper than ours and Adams, Uehara, Ogando, is a really good 7,8,9. I think I like our back end better, but i like their middle inning guys a lot better than ours.
I remember from the 2011 playoff series between the Tigers and the Rangers that...
(1) It seemed as though that the whoever the Rangers brought out of the bullpen, he was capable of striking out the side
and
(2) Every player that the Rangers brought up to the plate was capable of driving the ball out of the ballpark.
I did not feel the same way about the Tiger bullpen nor the Tiger lineup. Furthermore, Verlander was not the equalizer. As terrific as he was in the regular season, he was very average in the playoffs.
As of today, the 2012 Tiger lineup is not as strong as the 2011 Tiger lineup… where the other contenders (Read as Texas, New York, Los Angeles, etc) have all made roster improvements.
So is it just blind loyalty to the franchise that we enter the 2012 season believing that the Tigers can win a world championship? Or do we enter the season concerned that V-Mart’s injury and DD’s lack of moves (to date) will waster a year of the prime years of Verlander and Cabrera?
"All aboard! There is plenty of room."
Brennan Boesch Bandwagon Conductor
Easy now
It seemed as though that the whoever the Rangers brought out of the bullpen, he was capable of striking out the side
This had more to do with our banged up lineup than their pitchers.
Every player that the Rangers brought up to the plate was capable of driving the ball out of the ballpark.
No, you’re just having flashbacks of Nelson Cruz.
Ranger's Roster
The big boppers: Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler, and Adrian Beltre… followed by the likes of Michael Young, Mike Napoli, Elvis Andrus, Mitch Moreland, etc. There are no black holes in that lineup… and that is intimidating in October.
And for 2012 they have the opportunity to add Prince Fielder.
"All aboard! There is plenty of room."
Brennan Boesch Bandwagon Conductor
I know who is in the Rangers' lineup
And yes, they’re good, but their pitching staff leaves much to be desired, especially now without Wilson.
Then rather than giving you my thoughts on the strength of the Texas staff...
I will agree to disagree with you regarding the ability (or inability) of the current 2012 Tigers being prepared/positioned to beat the 2012 Rangers in a playoff series.
"All aboard! There is plenty of room."
Brennan Boesch Bandwagon Conductor
In a 7 game series, it's a toss up
I don’t think that either team is significantly better in that they would win easily. There’s too much chance and random circumstance involved.
I do think that Texas will finish the regular season with a better record, so take that for what you will.
What is the preference? To find a replacement DH? Or to find the best available free agent bat?
Is it to get a DH to replace VMart? Or is it to get a first baseman and put Cabby at DH? Carlos Pena offers a left-handed bat and above average defense at 1B. Vlad is strictly a right-handed DH.
Jim Leyland likes having lineup flexibility… and Vlad doesn’t offer that. While VMart was largely the DH, his presence on the roster meant that the Tigers didn’t have to carry an additional catcher last year.
Ipso facto, with Laird on the roster JL already has less lineup flexibility. Adding Vlad to the roster further reduces that flexibility.
"All aboard! There is plenty of room."
Brennan Boesch Bandwagon Conductor
I think I would take Pena over Vlad in a second
Lower batting .avg, but with more power and a much better OBP. Plus he’s a +defender at 1st, and like you said, left-handed. If we picked him up and added someone like Oswalt for a year, I’d feel pretty good about this season, with V-Mart and maybe Turner ready to go for 2013.
by CoreyMichaelDC on Jan 18, 2012 12:15 PM EST up reply actions
Then the question is this: Does Carlos Pena want to return to Detroit?
If I remember correctly, I don’t think he was pleased with the team when he left in 2005.
(1) JL wasn’t around during Pena’s earlier stretch with Detroit, so that might make a difference.
or
(2) Maybe Mr. Illitch writing a check for $10 million will make him forget any hard feelings he may still harbor for the franchise?
"All aboard! There is plenty of room."
Brennan Boesch Bandwagon Conductor
Lynn Henning has been getting into Tripping Olney's stash
He’s overreacting more than anyone I’ve seen.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
he's definitely dipping into troll territory lately
"I'm a simple man. I like pretty, dark-haired women and breakfast food" - Ron Swanson
by rock n rye on Jan 18, 2012 12:21 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Henning has been listeing too to much sports talk radio
I tuned in today to get the pulse of a certain part of the fanbase. Most of the callers are either “Get Fielder at any cost!”, channeling Lynn Henning’s “Trade for a BIG BAT regardless of cost”, or “Bring back Maggs (or Guillen)!”
The level of discourse hasn’t exactly been high.
I'm owner/editor of The Wayne Fontes Experience a deputy editor at Bless You Boys, host the Bless You Boys Podcast and co-host The Knee Jerks podcast.
If Illich really wants to win now,
he should come up with 9-12 million and try to bring Carlos Pena here on a 1 year deal. Pena is the best bat left on the market whose name isn’t coming with a 7 figure price tag. He could fit right behind Cabrera in the lineup too, and he is a lefty which suits Detroit’s righty heavy lineup. For the past 4 years his batting line has been .224/.354/.475, which doesn’t go back far enough to include 2007, when he had an OPS over 1.000. Obviously Pena won’t reach that number again, but he doesn’t have to. He can provide most of what went away when we lost V-mart by just having a typical Pena year.
Don't forget the "Cabrera Effect"
I don’t know where smokey would bat Pena in the order, but if he bats above or below Cabby he could put up big numbers. We’ve seen time and time again that somewhat competant hitters all of the suddon look great batting within the vicinity of Cabrera.
I don't want Carlos Pena
Pena doesn’t add a middle of the order bat, he doesn’t protect Cabrera, and he doesn’t play second or third.
"King of Minutiae"
how much did Martinez protect Cabrera?
by Kurt Mensching on Jan 18, 2012 12:58 PM EST up reply actions
The difference in IBBs to Miguel was somewhat significant, wasn't it?
The bat in Cabrera’s hands is always a better thing.
Justin can now let the fungus grow back on his shower shoes.
but the walk rate actually went up in 2011
by Kurt Mensching on Jan 18, 2012 1:40 PM EST up reply actions
You would think so...
Miggy had 32 IBB in 2010 and 22 in 2011…however he had 88 total BB’s in 2010 and 108 in 2011 so they were pitching around him much more often before VMart got there then after. In fact he had the highest walk rate of his career, 4.6% higher than his career average.
I stand corrected
It would be logical to me that the decrease in IBBs would be offset by the increase in BBs.
Of course, the IBBs would most certainly be in more high leverage situations. But still, walking 20 more times overall is prettty big.
Justin can now let the fungus grow back on his shower shoes.
I think protection is just the wrong word
It’s more who’s going to make the other team pay if they walk Cabrera? Sounds more like a “Pimp” than a “Protector” to me.
Pena would do the trick
Lots of power, which seems to be what you’d want.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
by David Tokarz on Jan 18, 2012 3:16 PM EST up reply actions
But only a 22% chance of getting a hit
I’m torn on Pena. He’s got power and he can walk. To bat him behind Cabrera, the walks don’t really help that much. As we’re talking about here, we want somebody that can drive home Cabrera and/or the runners in front of him.
I feel like we’re almost better off with Pena’s .355 OBP in the #3 spot and Young’s .290 AVG in the #5 spot. Am I wrong here? I know not all hits are created equal and Pena leaving the yard or lacing a double has merit that shouldn’t be overlooked, but from a simplistic point of view, you usually need a hit to knock in a run (Pena = 22%, Young = 29%) and you need guys on base in front of you to knock in (Pena = 35%, Young = 30%). Seems simple.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
who then?
"I'm a simple man. I like pretty, dark-haired women and breakfast food" - Ron Swanson
by rock n rye on Jan 18, 2012 1:09 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Wade Boggs or Roberto Alomar.
That’s my guess
just about as likely to add those two
as opposed to any of the 5 2bs in the majors that can hit
"I'm a simple man. I like pretty, dark-haired women and breakfast food" - Ron Swanson
by rock n rye on Jan 18, 2012 1:20 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
That begs the question
which available player adds a middle order bat, protects Cabrera, and/or plays second or third.? Also how does the opportunity cost of acquiring this star player compare to that of someone like Pena?
I think we need a big name
Of all the names I’ve heard since yesterday afternoon, I think Pena intrigues me the most. However, I almost feel like we need a big name who’s performance is known more by reputation than by recent results. I really want a batter behind Cabrera that will be on the mind of the pitcher and manager as they face Miguel. Someone like Manny, or Vlad might have a more of a psychological advantage in regards to protecting Cabrera. (I realize that “lineup protection” is a somewhat controversial topic, but……..)
Nobody is going to scare teams into pitching to Miguel Cabrera
Forget the big name, give me the bat that will make teams pay for pitching around Cabrera. Martinez hit .390 last season after Cabrera walks, which was a huge part of the offense’s success.
The BP piece
Easy to say that it’s not that hard to get to average DH production. The problem IMO is that you need above-average production at that spot to offset the sub-contending-stater production we’re likely to get at 2B and 3B.
by KJ@theonlycolors on Jan 18, 2012 1:10 PM EST reply actions
Does anyone know why Damon hit homeruns again?
Because he played in the AL East, a division stacked with bandboxes.
The moment he comes back, it’s going to be a repeat of 2010.
Damon had a better slash line in 2010 compared to last season
His .271/.355/.401 line might make people happy if we weren’t trying to replace Victor Martinez’s .330/.380/.470 line from last season.
He'd make me happy...
If he were five, ten years younger.
If we needed a guy to hit singles every once in a while, I’d resign Magglio.
by metatron5369 on Jan 18, 2012 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
Michael Young
I know there is no chance of this happening but I would love to see Young playing 3rd base and batting 5th for us. I do think the team should wait until the trade deadline and see where they are before trading players like Turner. I would rather see the team go after a LF than a DH. We have a DH in Delmond Young.
Agreed, I think July is a much better time for this team to make trades
First, we have the weak division working for us. 85 wins probably punches a ticket to the playoffs in the AL Central. So, are we capable of winning 85 right now, even without VMart…I think the answer is yes and I’d even predict a couple extra.
Second, there aren’t too many sellers right now. Oakland is selling but they don’t have much left to sell. The White Sox are selling, but probably not to us and I don’t know what I’d want anyhow to fill this need. A couple other teams are selling, but there will be more sellers in July than there are now (although this pesky extra wild card will reduce the number of sellers.)
Third, I think our organization is in a position to improve it’s “farm stock” a lot by July. I don’t think we have too many prospects that are going to hurt their stock. Turner should be fine if he’s in AAA. I don’t think Castellanos was ever for sale, even if he gets promoted to Lakeland and struggles to start the season. If Smyly isn’t promoted to AAA, I think he’ll put up good numbers in AA. (And the Tigers might leave him there for exactly that reason). Beyond that, we have a lot of toolsy prospects that have question marks because they haven’t translated any results yet. Guys like Av. Garcia, Dan Fields, Crosby, Oliver, Santa, Danry Vazquez, Ciriaco, Suarez, and many others have good tools and could get a huge boost in value by putting together a good half season.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
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