The Tigers shouldn't bother trading for Matt Garza
by Kurt Mensching on Jan 2, 2012 6:00 AM EST
in Detroit Tigers Analysis
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PrintAre the rumors of the Tigers' being interested in Matt Garza, and willing to trade Jacob Turner (and more) for the Chicago Cubs starting pitcher, true? Man I hope not.
Over my holiday break, the Tigers were linked to Garza first casually, and then more seriously.
ESPN.com's Buster Olney reported on Twitter:
Tigers have made it known to other teams that they are willing to trade Jacob Turner in a deal for the right pitcher. That's a big piece.
I've never hidden the fact I don't mind trading prospects for established major league players, so long as you're getting a sure thing in return. (Inasmuch as any player could be considered a sure thing, anyway.) However, my belief is that you've got to get value in return for your prospects, or hold onto them for when you really need them.
I do not see trading Turner (and, again, who knows what other top names) for Garza as a great value grab or a necessary deal at this point.
2011 was his best year in the major leagues, by far. It was also his first in the National League Central. In his prior 100-plus starts, nothing about Garza said front-line starter. He'd come with some prospect hype, and he was always a steady hand in a major league rotation. He was always said to have great stuff. But he hadn't taken any steps toward elite. The result was a career ERA in the upper 3s, and an FIP in the 4s while playing mostly with the Rays in the AL East.
Again, not bad. Not great, either.
However, his numbers in 2011 were terrific: 3.32 ERA, 3.19 xFIP, a career-best 8.95 K/9 and a near-best 2.86 BB/9. His 11.2% swinging strike rate was great, but even better was his jump of 3.7% in swinging strike percentage.
Some will want to say that's due to moving to a worse league -- and I'm sure there's some truth to that.
Fangraphs recently wrote that Garza might be able to maintain his strikeout rate in 2012 and beyond, due in part to changing his approach while on the mound. In short, he throws fewer fastballs and his breaking pitches have batters whiffing.
Matt Garza looks like he could be another legitimate improvement. Is he the 5 WAR stud he was in 2011? No, we can’t just throw out the rest of his career. But there is reason to believe that he is better than he was before. His peripherals entirely support his performance and can be explained by a shift in pitch selection. Of course it’s possible that the league adjusts in 2012, but there is no reason to dismiss 2011 as a fluke.
Another believe in Garza is fellow SB Nation blog Fake Teams. They write:
Garza remade himself in 2011, and I'm buying continued success. Cubs pitching coach Larry Rothschild reportedly encouraged Garza to rely more on his breaking stuff, and new coach Chris Bosio would be wise to continue that philosophy, as his ground balls jumped, his fly balls dropped (as well as HR/FB), and he struck more batters out. His xFIP (3.19) was by far the lowest it's ever been and was 1.12 better than the year previous. Matt Garza's improvement is no mirage.
A side issue with Garza is collecting surplus value. If a top prospect like Turner lives up to half the hype, he'll create a fair amount of value. Garza has two years of team control left with arbitration eligibility. He was paid $5.95 million last season. It does not take a genius to surmise he's going to make at least a million more in 2012, and who knows how much more in 2013.
Again, don't get me wrong here. Garza would certainly produce plenty of surplus value if he kept pitching as well as he did last year. He'd still have some if he pitched like 2008-2009, too. But the question is, just how much value can he create?
So in the end, I guess it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. Unless Turner's trade value has totally fallen out, however, I think the Tigers are better off holding on to him for now. I'd rather save a spot for Turner in Detroit's rotation, or trade him and other prospects for a true, proven front-line starter. Garza, while a nice piece, is an unnecessary acquisition at this time. They have plenty of time before the trading deadline to figure out what they truly need.
(See our sister site MLB Daily Dish for more Garza rumors.)
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If we trade for Garza
Then the message coming from the top is: “We want a world series and we want NOW! Fuck the future!” And my response would be, yeah sure if you could guarantee a world series win then it would be worth the risk, unfortunately you can’t. Plus I don’t like trading for guys following career years, it’s always a risk.
If you can't dazzle them with brilliance baffle them with bullshit
2 me there's still FAs out there...
With #s comparable to Garza’s, Rather than mortgaging the future, I’d like to see them pick up a Oswalt, Joe Saunders (I think he makes pretty good sense) & at least give eJack another go, way better than Penny, like I’ve said b4 the offense was pittiful when Jackson was on the mound, except 4 a few games, he pitched well enough 2 win almost every game he pitched in. Still, there’s been no real miprovement 2 the offense, they could use sumore power &/or consistency, that’s been their achilles heal, the inconsistency, I know it’s baseball & that’s kinda how it is, but these guys are pros & gettin paid.
If we're signing a FA, I'd rather stay away from long term committment
I’m guessing that EJackson gets 4 years; 3 at minimum. Our farm system should be self-sustaining from the SP standpoint, by mid-season. Since we’re on a budget, I’d rather invest dollars in position players, where we are a long way from being self-sustaining.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
jackson seems to be looking for 4 years and $60m
this market seems to indicate he’ll get less. But still, forget it.
by Kurt Mensching on Jan 4, 2012 12:05 PM EST up reply actions
Not a wonder why he got traded 5 times in the past 3 years.
His asking price is just insulting. Some of those teams probably talked to him about a contract extension, then he threw that $15 Million a year figure in their face. Next thing he’s on a plane ride out of town.
I think adding a proven major league pitcher is always a plus.
Plus i am not so sure about Turner.If we can get Garza for Turner and not much else i say make the deal.This is the Tigers window to win a World Series.Plus you can always trade pitching for prospects if it dosen"t work out.
Garza
Thanks for a well researched article. Your points are fair, and I understand your perspective. Only thing I would add is that Garza is probably better, more durable, cheaper (two more years of club control) and younger than anyone who will be available for prospects in the next couple of years. He has nasty stuff, and throws 95mph and that actually improves as the season progresses. If you look at the first four full seasons of other potential 1-2 starters (like Sabathia etc.) Garza is actually better in many respects. Last year after July 29th he didn’t give up more than 3 runs even once. 10 of his 11 starts in that span were quality starts AND the one non-qualifier was 5in, 2 ER and the Cubs beat a Braves team that was still on fire (in August) and yet to nose dive. The horrible ‘11 Cubs won Garza’s last 6 starts through late August and all of September. That included Garza shutting out the WS champ Cardinals and zero ER in beating a power house Brewers team in September. It is also notable that Garza has a 3.49 ERA in the postseason and beat Boston in the playoffs twice including a 1 run effort in Fenway. Turner is a very difficult piece to let go of and I am not saying they should. But if they can stomach the thought you won’t get better than Matt Garza. He is the poster boy for Fangraphs’ skeptics who feel that those metrics don’t always tell the whole story (check debate at the bottom of the article you cited). All that said, I believe you are right on and hit ever valid point with the correct research. But you won’t find better than Garza, there just aren’t many like him. Watched him pitch in Tampa and Chicago and if you see his command, poise, and mound presence you understand. He’s the real deal and still 28. Having seen a mother lode of can’t miss prospects fail, it is worth considering. Todd Van Poppel is the icon of failed blue chips and the Padres Drabek last year is another example. I think Turner is better than most and will be amazing . . . But he still has a lot of work to get where Garza is and will be for the next few years. I like that Garza is not a free agent until 2014.
Garza is a good pitcher but
I think it would be smart to hold on to Turner and see how he is pitching in a few years. We haven’t seen Turner mature fully, and he is only 20 years at this point. 20 years old!! Though he had two bad outings out of three appearances, I remember Justin Verlander going through two bad outings himself when he was called up prior to his rookie season. I would like to see the Tigers focus on long-term stability rather than shoot for the moon. There are reasons the Twins won the central for so many years in the past decade. Though Turner is only a prospect, DD has got to keep him if he wants to maintain the Tiger’s future success.
I like Garza, but I wouldn't give up Turner for him.
Unless the Cubs sign him long-term and then trade him to us. Then they’d need to pay for half of his contract too.
Verlander’s 1st 6 years cost us $26.5 Million total. He’s the benchmark for home brewing starting pitchers. I want all that surplus value before they start making the big bucks. That allows us a financial cushion to make FA acquisitions (like Yoenis Cespedes, Victor Martinez, Valverde, Benoit, and Dotel). We just can’t afford to keep trading top prospects unless it’s for a young impact franchise player like Cabrera or Verlander. Garza isn’t no Verlander.
He's butchering my grammer too
Garza isn’t no Verlander.
Garza getting close to free agency, so you may have him for two years only
Tigers farm system at the upper levels is bad so DD doesn’t have a lot of trading chips so he has the ability to make one move. Turner is also under team control for a while which is favourable. I think Tigers should concentrate on Prado. I think Kurt is right, Tigers would not make a move until they see how the season is going unless something good comes up. With the White Sox blowing up it great to be in the Central.
Do we really need him right now?
I wouldn’t have a problem with a Turner for Garza trade, but I’m not sure it is necessary. I’d rather wait until the trade deadline and get a potentially better pitcher, or know if we need one.
We should have no problem winning our division with our current roster, and if we feel we need to upgrade, do it at the deadline. In the meantime, we may learn that Scherzer and/or Porcello have really stepped up and pitching closer to their potential, leaving a Garza-type move as unnecessary. Or a better pitcher might be made available at that point, if we think we need to upgrade the rotation.
I’d rather just get Kuroda or Oswalt for one year and keep Turner for 2013. Pay them anything they want, as neither is looking for a multi-year.
I'd vote for a deadline move.
That would give us some time to raise the trade value of guys like Dirks, Wilk, Below, and Oliver.
Last season, we might not of been able to get Fister, if we didn’t 1st give Charlie Furbush and Casper Wells some MLB playing time.
This is a good thought
I hate to be over-confident, but I think we’re good enough to be a division leader at the trade deadline. Pitchers will be available then as well and there’s a chance that Oliver will have redeemed some value. I also think that a good half season from a toolsy guy like Av. Garcia or Fields could propel them into strong prospect territory.
I don’t think that Dirks, Wilk, or Below have enough tools to ever have significant value. I’m not sure how much we can raise their value, even if they do well at their respective levels. To me, Seattle’s centerpiece in the Fister trade was actually Martinez, the one guy they didn’t use last year. Wells, Furbush, and Ruffin are all nice supplemental pieces that may help at the MLB level in some capacity, but I believe the deal started around the guy that has a chance to be a good regular.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
That's thinking even further
I wasn’t even looking at guys like Fields or Garcia raising their trade stock. I guess there’s a place for everyone to showcase themselves, like how Francisco Martinez did last year. I think we actually have a lot of guys in the lower levels that could develop into something. That reminds me, I started a prospects fanpost a few weeks ago that I didn’t finish.
Sometimes, the value in deadline deals is taking on salary
As in a rental player.
"King of Minutiae"
Garza, Thanks, but no thanks
I like the idea the Tigers are trying to upgrade their pitching, because you never seem to have enough of it. Especially what the Angles rotation looks like for 2012. And the Rangers and Tampa’s rotation will be good as well. But, I dont think we need to hang the towel out just yet. We still have a chance to bring up our own 5th starter, you never who or how that can emerge. DD has addressed some of our needs which is good. However, I am still have 3 concerns. Lead Off Hitter, Second Base, and Third Base. I realize the market for these types isnt abundant right now. But, as you all know anyone can be traded at anytime. Ask yourself this. Would Inge, Kelly, Santiego, Raburn, be a starter for most baseball clubs? The answer most likely is no. And these guys are going to fill not one but two positions on some sort of platoon basis. Sorry, I dont like it. I think Poly is available again. I dont know what he would cost (yes he’s getting older) but I would think he would be an upgrade at 2nd compared to what we have. Garza would be nice, but the cost is to high. We should concentrate on the more immediate needs.
The circumstances under which . . .
. . . it will make a significant difference to the Tigers that the Angels, the Rangers or the Rays have a better 5th starter are few and far between. Anyone epecting a wild card race? Otherwise, having the best rotation in the division ought to suffice, and the resources we’d spend on a starter could be directed elswhere.
by rea on Jan 2, 2012 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
What does DD have against the FA market for SP?
Oswalt and Kuroda are still available; both comp well with Garza. Both could be signed for a year or two for similar money to Garza. Neither would cost one of the top prospects in baseball.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
I agree on wanting Oswalt
but it is possible he checked in on some of our favorite names and they weren’t interested in pitching for Detroit.
by Kurt Mensching on Jan 2, 2012 10:55 AM EST up reply actions
Aren't Oswalt and Kuroda
looking for deals in the higher than what the Tigers are willing to spend? I thought Oswalt was looking for something in the $7.5-8 million range while Kuroda was in the $10-12 million? I’d like to have either but wasn’t the original plan this offseason to find a cheap, Penny-type who could translate into the pen or become trade bait around the All-Star break to make room for Turner, Smyly or Oliver? If that’s still the plan I’d love to see what the Tigers could get for either of them if they were to promote one of the kids come July.
Take off your white wig, put down your gavel and stop judging...
Well, Garza would average 10M for the next two, so it seems that's within budget
Kuroda will probably sign a tick below 10M average, while I think Oswalt will cost about 12M or more.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
Turner for 2 years of Garza isn't enough
Unless the Tigers ‘know’ something about Turner. But if Turners full potential is as much as ever thought … including Turner in a trade for Garza wouldn’t make sense.
Justin can now let the fungus grow back on his shower shoes.
I would not trade Turner for Garza
- Matt Garza is a good pitcher. In 2011, he was a very good pitcher. But he’s no sure thing to be a top two starter back in the AL. His cost is more like $ 8 to 9 million next year.
- A good starting pitcher- not merely a Brad Penny replacement, would do more to improve the roster than any other acquisition, apart from a top tier third baseman.
- I’d have no problem trading Turner for a solid young pitcher with several years of club control left. Gio Gonzalez would be such a pitcher. But with only two years left of club control, Garza is not worth Turner.
- There are two, and only two prospects in the Tiger organization that I’d have to think twice about trading- Jacob Turner and Nick Castellanos. I’d deal any other prospects in a heartbeat for a starting pitcher, or a starting second or third baseman that would fit at the top of the batting order. That includes Smyly, Brantly, Fields, you name it.
- There are better options available. Kuroda for one, Oswalt for two. They can be signed for one year, maybe with an option, for a bit more money- say $ 12 million, and keep Jacob Turner.
- DD has shown over the years that he doesn’t like to spend money on top free agents. I believe that he was pushed, kicking and screaming by Mike Ilitch, to get Pudge and Ordonez, and there were no real bidding wars for those guys. Every other free agent that he signed was done only after their value dropped. He has never spent more than $ 8 million (Kenny Rogers) for a free agent starting pitcher.
- The Tigers need to make a couple of moves. The roster that they have right now is no better, and is obviously worse than what they finished the season with. Magglio was on his patented .400 hitting streak when the season ended, and Betemit had relegated Inge to backup duty. Not that those guys are the answer, but they produced at a level that the current roster can not be expected to do.
- DD has already whiffed on Kelly Johnson, backed off on Prado and Headley, and proclaimed- foolishly, that we’re okay with two inept platoons at 2B and 3B. There’s been no mention of the ineptitude that the Tigers showed in the top three spots in the lineup in 2011. I hope DD’s allergy to free agency does not prevent him from doing the right thing, but it looks like it may.
"King of Minutiae"
I'd argue that we're not much worse than the end of 2011
Dotel strengthens the bullpen. Laird helps ease catching concerns surrounding injury or Avila’s durability. The Perry trade might help. Losing the 2011 versions of Maggs and Guillen does not make this team worse…it opens two roster spots for more productive players. Losing Betemit might be the only thing that makes this team marginally worse than the late September, 2011 Tigers.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
I should've said "arguably" rather than "obviously"
I don’t think there is much change either way, but if they’re counting on Delmon to replace the good Magglio, that ain’t gonna happen.
"King of Minutiae"
255/303/331
634 OPS. OPS+ was 74
In 357 PAs, 10 doubles 5 homers 32 rbi
I suppose we could cherry pick some numbers out of the mess Maggs put up in 2011, and then say Young can’t replace him. But if Young can’t exceed the above numbers he should be released immediately. Maggs was awful in 2011. Sure, maybe he hit better for a couple of weeks. But the team is better with Young in 2012 than it was in 2011 with Maggs.
The team is essentially the same as it was in 2011. Except in the first half of 2012 we’ll have Fister instead of Coke, and Young instead of Maggs. 2012 looks better to me.
Who will replace Penny? One of the kids, or another option? Either choice is arguably at least as good as Penny.
To me, 3B is the only position on the team that HAS to have an upgrade. I don’t think we can play the 2012 season with the platoon we have in place. Considering the roster has 25 places, that’s not a bad place to be. Only one spot that is unacceptable.
I think our 2B situation can get us through the season. I think the 5th starter can be filled by the 5 or 6 possibles in Toledo and Erie, with a car motor kept running 24/7 if a quick switch is needed. I think we’re going to see Miguel hitting 3rd this year, decreasing the need for a top of the order hitter. Right now, I’d guess we’ll start the season AJax/Boesch/Miguel/Victor…the top 4.
The bottom of the order will be a bunch of solid rbi guys who show some power. Peralta, Young, Avila, Raburn.
To me, the team starting 2012 is slightly better than the team that started 2011. If DD can find a way to pull in a 3B that is at least MLB average, then this team will be obviously better.
Justin can now let the fungus grow back on his shower shoes.
Not sure if DD whiffed on Johnson – it’s more than likely they simply weren’t interested in a high-K, poor defense 2B. Putting a package together for Prado might have not been possible either, since Atlanta wasn’t sold on Delmon for their outfield. And the asking price for Headley sounded high as well, and San Diego might have seriously considered trading him anyway.
My only point is that filling needs is never easy, and to piggy-back off your point, if they can’t improve certain positions in the field, maybe improving the staff is the way to go. Most sites peg Turner’s ceiling at a #2, and maybe they feel Garza could be that #2-type and already has a solid MLB/playoff history to draw on? I love Turner as a prospect, but there’s certainly nothing close to a guarantee that he becomes an ace, let alone has Garza’s career.
by CoreyMichaelDC on Jan 2, 2012 1:11 PM EST up reply actions
Johnson has a career .346 OBP and is an above average defender at 2B
Raburn is as bad as it gets defensively at 2B.
San Diego wants to get rid of Orlando Hudson and his fat contract (7.5 mil with the 2 mil buyout) and I’d take him in a deal for Headley if it lessened the price so as to not include Castellanos or Turner.
Problem with Garza is that he has just two years of club control left, one at 8- 9 mil and one probably closer to 12 mil. Why give up Turner when you can sign a free agent, just as good, for a little more than that?
"King of Minutiae"
Kelly Johnson
I actually think we really wiffed on that one… 2 years 13 mil would have got it done….& then you can saw 4mil off that price tag bc we then go with Worth over Santiago as our MI.. Johnsons “poor” seasons are average…thats a nice floor
by Wolverine119 on Jan 2, 2012 2:00 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I thought he accepted arbitration
was he ever a free agent?
"I'm a simple man. I like pretty, dark-haired women and breakfast food" - Ron Swanson
Kelly Johnson is the big whiffer
Kevin Towers, Arizona’s GM traded him for a good reason.
"Personally, I like contact hitters. I like guys that have good pitch recognition. Strikeouts are part of the game, but if you have four or five or six guys [who strike out a lot] in your lineup, it’s hard to sustain any sort of rally."Source : Fangraphs
We got enough whiffers already. I think one reason why DD traded Scott Sizemore and Casper Wells is because they whiffed too much. We need guys that can put the ball in play more often. I’d like to see our outs be productive as well as our hits. You guys might be thinking On base, On base, On base, but guys like Jim Leyland, want the ball put in play more frequently instead. I hope someday we replace Inge and Raburn, but I want to see them replaced with someone like Martin Prado or Alberto Callaspo. Adding Kelly Johnson ( or Chase Headley for that matter) wouldn’t fix that problem, because those guys strike out a lot too.
One of my many wishes is for wOBA to be fixed, so that it also reflects the negative value of a strike out.
Sizmore
Sure glad that guy is gone….
by Wolverine119 on Jan 2, 2012 3:57 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
It does reflect the negative value of a strikeout
for the most part. The guy makes an out, doesn’t get on base, and is charged with both a PA and an AB. What you may need is some credit for an out that advances a runner, and negative credit for a DP ball.
Some of the most prolific whiffers are virtually a who’s who of the best players that the game has ever seen.
I think that if the Tigers got Prado, he’d probably play 3B, barring any other additions.
"King of Minutiae"
K's also help a pitchers WAR (FIP).
To me, it’s almost common sense that K’s should do the opposite for a hitters WAR. It shouldn’t be one way, but not the other.
We hate guys that strike out a lot
yet Austin Jackson sits entrenched at the top of the lineup. Hmmm…
That's the one thing I hate about AJax
but at least when he K’s in the 1st inning, nobody is on base.
He's not ready
That move would be bad for the Tigers and bad for Turner’s development. If the Tigs just want a No. 5 starter, they can try Below, Wilk, Oliver, Pauley, etc, or they can do a cheap deal for a Paul Maholm type, or trade for Gorzelanny. If they want to upgrade the rotation, they can sign a Kuroda, Oswalt, or even Saunders. They don’t need to rush another top prospect to save a few bucks.
"King of Minutiae"
Moving pauley to the rotation isn't a bad idea.
He ha already been a starter an was a long relief guy, so stretching him out isn’t really a earth shattering move, and leyland basically forgot he was even in the pen.
Maybe that’s why no one puts him on lists of bullpen arms the tigers have. It’s frsjadowing his move to the rotation. Below is another choice, but I think his upside is basically as a reliever and it’s a good time to just move him to the pen.
Tired of generic music??? Exterminate All Rational Thought is here to help!
He should be in the mix if they don't add a SP from outside
Pauley had great numbers in Seattle in the bullpen, not so great as a starter. He could have done much better in Detroit if he had gotten more work, IMO. He went long stretches with no game action and didn’t do well when he finally got his chance. But putting Penny on the playoff roster ahead of him was just wrong.
"King of Minutiae"
As I think more about this I think I'm warming to the idea of getting Garza
or someone else. Remember a few years ago when Porcello was our top prospect and everyone thought he was going to be a top starter for years to come? Yeah about that.
The conclusion I’ve come to from Porcello is that until a prospect really proves himself I’d rather have a sure thing. I’m not sure Garza is that guy but I remember last year I was strongly in favor of including Turner in a package for Grienke, and I still wish we had done that.
If you can't dazzle them with brilliance baffle them with bullshit
Agree
I would have packaged him for Gio this year in a second as well, although Oakland did well to get Peacock and Cole for the Nationals, and I wouldn’t want to give up Castellanos.
by CoreyMichaelDC on Jan 2, 2012 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
Porcello is still on track to be a top starter.
How does a prospect really prove himself? That seems to be a chicken before the egg thing.
I don’t think anyone was expecting him to be an ace right out of the gate. I think some of us knew that he’d be learning as he goes, but he’d at least be a decent rotation filler for his 1st few years. He’s done that for most part, but at times his youth and inexperience gets exposed. Give Porcello another year or 2, and he’ll be that top guy. He’ll be throwing like a veteran pitcher of 10 years when 25 years old.
Depends what you mean by "top guy"
I don’t ever see Kid Rick being an ACE, but a solid No. 2 is certainly possible. He’s not a big strikeout pitcher, but with a bit more confidence, especially in his four seamer, he can be consistently good. It wouldn’t hurt if the Tigers would upgrade their infield defense for him.
"King of Minutiae"
Top of the rotation, a 1 or 2 starter.
Over-all, one of the top 60 starters in MLB. He might even be a top 30 guy or 1 starter for a bad team.
So 6 years ago, you might have traded
Justin Verlander for someone like Mark Mulder or Scott Kazmir? You would of traded an unproven prospect like Zach Grienke too.
Sure am glad DD didn’t pull the trigger on JV for Beckett/Lowell a few years back… I was all for that trade back then.
by syper17 on Jan 3, 2012 10:09 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
Thank you
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Contributor, Bless You Boys
Yup
Looking back, Porcello’s low K rate should have been a significant red flag that people paid more attention to. Instead, they overlooked it.
Actually, Turner’s K rater (below 20% in AA this year) was what suggested to me that he needs more AA time.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Contributor, Bless You Boys
Porcello is decent
He might become good. I don’t think he’ll ever be an ace or even a solid #2 guy. If he can become a #3 SP in a good rotation, that’s respectable. Over-hyped would be my term.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
Kurt
I agree with the general points in your article that we shouldn’t trade away Turner for Garza, but isn’t it possible that we could get Garza w/o trading away Turner? Your article doesn’t seem to address this possibility.
Considering the teams that seem to be interested in Garza, does it look like any of those team would offer a peace more valuable than Rick Porcello? Especially considering that DD has just said that he is keeping Turner…
What would Yzerman do?
well, anything is possible I suppose
They could settle on a Crosby-Smyly package I guess. But from the articles I’ve read, they seem content to stick with Garza at this time if they don’t get the kind of top prospect they’re looking for.
by Kurt Mensching on Jan 5, 2012 10:22 AM EST up reply actions
No
I’m thinking that in hindsight, Porcello should have been sold at the height of his value.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Contributor, Bless You Boys
The deals that I remember being brought up were Halladay
and I’m not sure how real that one was, and Dan Haren, which sounds like it was shot down because Porcello was more or less untouchable.
by Kurt Mensching on Jan 4, 2012 9:36 AM EST up reply actions
I sometimes still look at Dan Haren and get annoyed.
It should’ve been him in a Tigers’ uniform!
I have a grand idea: let's win a game.
Someone recently rated the Tigers rotation without a 5th starter as the 7th best in the majors. Adding Garza, who i think would fall into the 3rd slot, would upgrade that ranking considerably. (His whip has been amazingly consistent for the last four season falling between 1.24 and 1.26.) Generally, expectations for third spot in a rotation are for a league average starter. Garza is better than that just as Verlander and Fister would be better nearly all other aces and 2nd starters. Scherzer and Porcello performed below average last year but still would compare favorably with most 4th and 5th starters and improvement is expected out of both of them. Imagine this rotation under control for 3 seasons. It would likely give the Tigers play in the post season each year. The last time the Tigers were in the post-season two years in a row was 1934-1935 and you have to go back over a 100 years when they were in the post-season three years running. Consistent post-season ball would give the Tigers plenty of resources to deal with the challenges that will face the team after the 2014 season. As much as I hate seeing Turner go, this is a trade that would benefit the Tigers.
Eh
I think we’re fine enough to win the Central without Garza, and Scherzer and Porcello should see an improvement next year.
We went to the ALDS. Even if we plug in Jacob Turner, we can do it again. If we trade Turner, I’d rather it was for a bat (or not at all).
Trade for a pitcher
What we need is a left hander, Garza is a righty and we have plenty of those.
tuscanred
Sign Cespedes
Hold Turner down for the full year. Have Castellanos in Erie by mid-season. Have Cespedes in Erie/Toledo most of the year.
In ST of ‘13, we’ll have a nice influx of young talent. Cespedes in LF to replace Young, Castellanos at 3B, and Turner into the rotation.
That trio will be joining the 2012 Central Division champs, and who knows how much more? AL Pennant winner? WS champs? Anyway ya look at it, it’s a great spot to be in.
Justin can now let the fungus grow back on his shower shoes.
I think Turner should get a couple spot starts
After all, how else are you gonna convince fans to come to the ballpark when we’ve wrapped up the division by mid-August?
Feature Smyly in a couple of starts
Trade fodder for next off season
Justin can now let the fungus grow back on his shower shoes.
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