Some intriguing trade possibilities

by TigerFanInAZ on Jan 23, 2012 4:46 PM EST

Good afternoon everybody. I have been reading the posts on this site for months and have finally decided to join in the conversation. BYB is by far my favorite site. There aren't any trolls here like some of the other sites.

What I want to talk about is replacing Victor and the 5th pitcher. The free agents are lacking and I wouldn't touch most with a ten foot pole. There are too many questions with these guys. I am thinking about trades that could help the Tigers. A.J. Burnett and Carlos Lee.

Burnett needs to leave New York. He is a head case but you can't deny his talent and the fact that the Yankees want to get rid of him. I think a change of scenery would do him wonders. It wouldn't cost us any of our best prospects and Mr. I can afford half his salary.

Lee is in the final year of his contract and is still a reliable hitter. He can still hit 30 homers and drive in 100 runs. He doesn't strike out much and has an excellent eye. Lee is on a horrible team that is rebuilding and I think a pennant chase would bring out the best in him.

Let me know what you guys think. Enjoy.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bless You Boys writing staff.

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AJ Burnett is contracted for $16.5 million a year over the next two seasons. He is a head case and he has been a below-average starter the past several years. Not worth it. At all.

Carlos Lee will cost $18.5 million next season. He’ll turn 36 next year and hasn’t hit at a high level since ‘09, which itself was a marked down year. He is clearly in decline and could well have a terrible season. He’s been in the NL since 2005 and he’s a right-handed hitter, and we need guys who are good at hitting righties. He’s not as bad an idea as Burnett, but the downside definitely outweighs the upside in this case.

by Seth9 on Jan 23, 2012 5:04 PM EST reply actions

Lee's floor isn't too low

With his career, and a decent bounce back in 2011, I’m willing to write 2010 off as an outlier. He’s been on a crappy team for years and he’s been content to just lose and get fat. Give him a change of scenery in a contract year…put him behind Cabrera and in front of a decent hitter like Avila, and I think the guy will go .280+ / .350+ / .450+ and that’s really pretty close to what we could realistically expect from Martinez.

Lee’s floor is probably .270 / .330 / .430. His ceiling is .320 / .390 / .510. I’ll take the chance on anything in between if the price is right. The Astros would probably eat a decent amount of contract if we gave up a decent prospect. If we took most of the salary (and it’s rumored that we’re getting half or more of Martinez’s back), we wouldn’t need much more than a C-level prospect.

The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981

by momotigers on Jan 23, 2012 5:46 PM EST up reply actions

I disagree with your premise

Lee’s floor is not nearly as high as you claim. He’s getting older and he’s been regressing. The generally optimistic Bill James projection has Lee hitting .274/.333/.455, which is right in line with your floor. Furthermore, it is not unreasonable to assume that Lee would not benefit from a move to the American League, as Lee has been a fastball hitter first, which is good for the NL, but not necessarily the AL. And all these issues would exist if we were merely signing him for $18.5 million, which would be a strain on our payroll. Instead, we’d have to trade for him, which means giving up something reasonably substantial in terms of prospects. All things considered, he’s not worth the cost relative to a cheaper free agent like Damon.

by Seth9 on Jan 24, 2012 2:01 PM EST up reply actions

The Tigers are going to score less this year

So .. they need to prevent fewer runs.

Kinda sounds simple, I know. But the options availabe to replace Victor are none and none. The Tigers and their obvious budget constraints this year aren’t going to find a guy to hit .330 with over 100 ribbies who also makes ‘em pay when they walk Cabrera. Ain’t gonna happen.

Based on that, it appears DD did a smart thing. He went after run prevention to replace Victor by trying to entice Oswalt to pitch in Detroit. Didn’t work. I love the idea, as many others here did as well … and Oswalt was an elegant solution to losing Victor.

I’d like DD to continue with this kind of thinking and get Cespedes in Detroit to play LF. The Tigers might have to overpay, but there is some value that many might not be considered. What if AJax repeats his awful year? Cespedes would be a ready-made CFer for ‘13. Also, in the name of run prevention Cespedes would do a fine job in LF moving Young to DH. Sure, Cespedes could probably use some MiLB seasoning in ’12. But defense rarely takes a day off, and since replacing Victors run production doesn’t seem possible, again we’d be looking at run prevention. Which Cespedes in LF would contribute to over having the defensively-challenged Young out there. What I’m saying, is even if cespedes hits 250/310/400 his first season, we’ll still have CF insurance moving forward and much better defense in LF.

No reason to sign a has-been to DH. Make the outfield more athletic.

If your parents didn't have any children, chances are you won't either

by Singledigit on Jan 24, 2012 2:30 PM EST up reply actions

What about the budget constraints?

by jeremy j on Jan 24, 2012 2:58 PM EST up reply actions

ask Prince about those constraints

by Thorpac on Jan 24, 2012 3:28 PM EST up reply actions

Lee is intriguing indeed, but it all depends on the price

But of course, there remains about a zero-percent chance this will happen. It’s much more likely we get Damon or another FA.

And as for Burnett, HELL NO!

"Goaltending is a normal job, sure. How would you like it in your job if every time you made a small mistake, a red light went on over your desk and 15,000 people stood up and yelled at you."
-Jacques Plante

by DetroitSports on Jan 23, 2012 6:04 PM EST reply actions

Houston would reportedly pay half of Lee's salary

but he’d still cost $ 9 million

"King of Minutiae"

by Tigerdog1 on Jan 24, 2012 2:59 AM EST up reply actions

I'd do Burnett

No, seriously. He got flat out victimized by a crappy home run rate. Granted, I’d make the Yankees friggin pay tons of cash, but I’d take Burnett.

As for Lee, also a yes.

"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz

"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching

by David Tokarz on Jan 23, 2012 8:19 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

Agreed

Burnett if the Yanks are paying and Lee would be a nice addition. I would however bet a huge amount of money that Lee is unwilling to approve a trade to Detroit.

by rif23 on Jan 24, 2012 8:53 AM EST up reply actions

Burnett might be interesting out of the pen too...

If the Yanks are picking up most of the tab, then I think Burnett would help us some as a starter initially and later as a reliever. If/when the kids are ready, Burnett just might be able to reinvent himself in the pen. He still has decent stuff which might play up for an inning or two.

by BayesLaw on Jan 24, 2012 11:29 AM EST up reply actions

I rather take a flyer on Harden

He’ll be cheap and perhaps even healthy for a month or two. When he breaks, give one of the kids a chance. If all of the kids fail, get an arm at the deadline.

The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981

by momotigers on Jan 24, 2012 12:19 PM EST up reply actions