Prince Fielder links: Fans cheer, pundits jeer
by Kurt Mensching on Jan 25, 2012 12:41 PM EST
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A tradition at The Only Colors, KJ told me this was his reaction to the signing. So naturally I had to lead with it.
Flashback: Prince Fielder displays his dad's skill with bat as 8-year-old | Detroit Free Press
Here's an article that ran in the Free Press on June 3, 1992, featuring an 8-year-old Prince Fielder looking well-fed.
Prince Fielder McDonald's Commercial 1992 - YouTube
Pretty good arm on young Prince as he strikes his daddy out in an ad for McDonalds. Prince still looked well fed. Now I guess he needs the veggy burger version.
Cecil Fielder On Prince Heading To Detriot - ESPN video
Prince Fielder's father, Cecil, talks about Prince heading to the Tigers.
Cecil Fielder also among those shocked his son signed with Tigers - JSOnline
Of course, it's been documented that the relationship between father and son has gone downhill since then, although Cecil says here it's improved a bit.
Prince Fielder, Cecil Fielder and the significance of family | HardballTalk
Craig Calcaterra wrote:
Anyway, the point of all of this is that I don’t see a father-son reconciliation as some necessary component of Prince Fielder going to Detroit. And, even though it would be nicer if the two of them had a good relationship than a poor one, I hope that Prince doesn’t get pestered too much about it by virtue of the public’s need to seek closure or resolution of a relationship that, by all rights, shouldn’t concern us.
Prince Fielder's road back to Detroit | The Detroit News
Tony Paul with a nice summary of the good and bad points of the deal, notes Fielder has been quite durable. He plays 160 games a year, average.
Garret reacts like the rest of us: with shock.
Tigers unwise to make such a hefty gamble on Prince Fielder - Cliff Corcoran - SI.com
He doesn't like it either. At $214 million, Fielder's new contract could prove to be a disaster for Detroit. Of course, if Fielder helps lead the team to its first World Series title since 1984 in the next couple of years, some Tigers fans may feel it was a price worth paying.
Staring Up at Prince and the Tigers - Twinkie Town
Our Twins sister site writes:
The Tigers have clearly mortgaged the future to make a stab at a championship in the next two or three years, and the ramifications of this signing will be felt throughout the AL Central for the next decade. And major questions linger about what the club's defense will look like in 2013 when they'll be forced to find room for three players that are best suited for the role of designated hitter.
Here's where I disagree. Anyone who thinks the Tigers have mortgaged their future hasn't been paying attention to the way the Tigers have done business for the past few years. The contract is expensive, but people are not viewing it through the prism of how Mike Ilitch and his team actually operate. Remember when they were supposed to be heavy sellers in 2009, trading Miguel Cabrera just to get out from under his contract? How'd that work out, pundits?
Some exquisite thoughts on the new Prince of Detroit " Walkoff Woodward
Doc Worn works his way through the timeline and implications of the move.
A Princely Sum for Detroit's Shiny New Toy - The Triangle Blog - Grantland
Jonah Keri, using ZiPs figures from Dan Symborski, thinks the Tigers are going to end up on the wrong end of this deal. And, well, by the end that very well might be true. (Hard to worry about nine years down the line, honestly.) But those numbers look a bit low to me in the early years, to honest. And I think the $/WAR figure really should be more of a sliding scale based on that sweet spot that occurs in the mid-80s to mid-90s in team wins. So in the end, I think the value of Fielder's contributions has been underestimated, too.
On $-per-Win Estimates of Baseball Players’ Worth -- JC Bradbury's Sabernomics
This is what I meant in the above. Now I'll tell you, there are various theories on this. Fangraphs and TangoTiger argue that the price of a WAR should be stable, but I really have to agree with Bradbury and others who argue the value changes depending on where a team is in the win curve.
Fielder contract absurd, but does it matter? - SweetSpot Blog - ESPN
David Schoenfield writes:
Yes, this situation will create a logjam in 2013 when Martinez returns with two years and $25 million left on his contract. But I don't think Tigers owner Mike Ilitch cares one bit about 2013 or how much Fielder will weigh in 2020. The contract is certainly excessive and likely to be an albatross by the end of it, but if Fielder helps deliver a World Series title to the Tigers in 2012, I'm pretty sure Ilitch will take your criticism and stuff it inside the crust of one of his pizzas.
Over/under: Prince Fielder's home runs - SweetSpot Blog - ESPN
Schoenfield sets the over/under at 35, citing the fact Tigers left handers haven't had high home run totals at Comerica Park. I don't think the Tigers have really had any left-handed sluggers like this. Detroit hardly even had a left handed batter in a few of those years. Curtis Granderson was as close as it came before Brennan Boesch, who is yet to play a full season. Also: Although other factors may be at work, Miller Park's fences in right field are about the same distance away as at Comerica Park. Slightly further, actually. I'd take the over and go with 38.
2012 Pod Projections: Prince Fielder | FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball
Here's another set of projections with details about how they came to be.
Drew Sharp takes the opposing view? Well that never happens!
It makes absolutely no sense paying two guys who basically are the same player more than $45 million annually. And anyone who thinks Miguel Cabrera "easily" could move to third base or leftfield, do you need a reminder of how badly that played out in 2008?
Rosenberg writes:
Signing Prince Fielder was never the plan. Just last week, I mocked the idea in print. I was going by everything the Tigers said publicly, everything they hinted at privately, and logic. That was my mistake. I'll try not to make it with this team again.
Ditto that one! Rosey won't learn his lesson and neither will I.
Prince Fielder's deal with the Tigers -- Newsday
Ken Davidoff's take:
Of course, it's irrational, in the way that any nine-year deal is irrational, especially for a poor-fielding first baseman. But if everything in life is relative, then I like this deal far more than the Angels' 10-year investment in Albert Pujols.
Detroit Goes for It, Signs Prince Fielder | FanGraphs Baseball
I am shocked -- SHOCKED -- that Dave Cameron does not like a decision by the Tigers. That never happens!
Detroit Tigers' Brandon Inge could be affected greatly by signing of Prince Fielder | MLive.com
We discussed this on the podcast: If Miguel Cabrera does in fact move to third base, what does it mean for Brandon Inge, who seems to be displaced by every major acquisition (Pudge, Cabrera, now Prince). I don't think the Tigers know for sure honestly. But I could see Inge as a late-innings replacement.
Cespedes has the final hurdle cleared to be declared a free agent. I would assume the Tigers' interest has waned, but you never know.
The Tigers’ Confounding Royalty Payment to Prince Fielder — Leading Off - NYTimes.com
This NY Times story that has a bunch of links I didn't even include.
Prince Fielder / Detroit Tigers Reactions Blowout - MLB Daily Dish
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Comments
Count me in the Bradbury camp as well
I think Fielder is a hell of a lot more valuable to Detroit than, say, LA. We’re competitive, they’re not (or not as competitive) and I think evaluating WAR/$ via a sliding scale is better at evaluating how good of a move this is in the short term.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Also
If Detroit signs Cespedes I will devolve into a blubbering mess of a man who emits nothing but fangirl squeals.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
A guy called into a radio show here in Seattle this AM...
He was really excited about this because it would make Brandon Inge available by trade. The host called Inge a “nice player,” but chided the guy a little for his enthusiasm.
I was amused.
DO IT DD
We’ll take Casper back, thank you.
by handsomerob1 on Jan 25, 2012 2:32 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Casper would be nice...
But I would even take a bucket of BP balls, or a bat boy, or heck, even a few cases of beer.
Drink, and Drink, and Drink, and Drink, and Drink, and Drink, and Fight!
by Brand New Hero on Jan 25, 2012 2:47 PM EST up reply actions
Fangraphs
I know from comments on Fangraphs, that its fun for Tiger fans to accuse Dave Cameron of bias, but it just reflects the fact that the front office under Dombrowski does not take a SABR influenced look (or much of one) at fielding a team. I don’t know how we argue that. Even anecdotally, the way DD and Leyland refer to RBIs and “run producers” shows an archaic approach. If you are being honest about the numbers the best you can really come up with is, “halfway in, the contract might not be among the worst in the league.” I don’t know how you could possibly justify it as “smart” if you think about baseball the way Cameron or Tango does.
Am I excited about the next few seasons? Of course. Do I disagree with anything Cameron wrote? The only counterpoint I would make is the fact we are all dead in the long term. But, he’s right. The Tigers got about a four year window to win it all…
I don't think that's true at all
Does this front office take a great deal of stock in the traditional statistics and scouting? Certainly. But I don’t think they totally dismiss the sabermetric. After all, Detroit was one of the first teams to go defense first to exploit that inequity in the market (Laird, Everett, Jackson), they make crafty trades to save money and they arguably value prospects better than any other team in baseball (there’s been a lot of talk about people overvaluing prospects recently.
And I’d say that my problems with the way Cameron is evaluating this trade come from several different fronts.
1) Detroit’s position on the win curve.
2) A problem with how sabermetricians evaluate defense, specifically with concerns that defense is too volatile to depend on. In other words, if UZR or any specific fielding value can vary by 10+ runs every year, and if it fluctuates wildly, why take the risk of going defense first?
3) the role of infield defense on a team that is designed with flyball/strikeout pitchers in the rotation.
4) The fact that we’re all totally convinced that Prince will degrade physically starting now (and that’s the argument he’s making) or even in four years.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
by David Tokarz on Jan 25, 2012 1:49 PM EST up reply actions
I do think that the Tigers completely dismiss "sabermetrics", or almost completely.
In fact, I don’t think that DD or JL have taken time to try and understand the concepts. I think they have a rudimentary, traditional understanding of OBP, and don’t have a clue about wOBA, and don’t care what it means. In summary, I think they are willingly wallowing in ignorance when it comes to forward thinking of statistics.
But despite all that, the Tigers can, and probably will significantly upgrade their OBP in the top three slots in the batting order this year just by moving Miggy to the 3 spot and Boesch into the 2 slot. Boesch was actually a bright spot in the top 3 in the order last year when healthy, and he is why they were just a bit below average overall in the 2, while being among the worst in the 1 and 3 slots. The Tigers got OBP in the 2 slot with Polanco and with Damon, but that wasn’t because of sabermetric concepts. Polanco was a great contact hitter and they see that as being a guy that could move a runner and shoot the gap on the right side with a runner on base. Not a guy that works the count, draws BB’s and gets on base ahead of the big guns. Delmon hitting in the 3 last year tells us all we need to know about their understanding of wOBA. It doesn’t exist.
I also think that they get the idea about AJax leading off, but they don’t have any alternatives from within. I’d bet that Leyland would love to see speed in the 1 slot, and he has a stereotype of a speedy CF in that spot. It’s not about OBP to him. It’s not about OBP in the SABR sense, but more about just getting some hits like they’d have expected from any batter if they were still playing in 1955.
I pretty much agree with Cameron’s take regarding the Tigers’ position on the win curve for the most part. A big offensive boost could put them “over the top”. I totally agree with David regarding UZR, but I think that the emphasis on defense has it’s place but limited impact on WAR. I don’t buy the idea that going “defense first” is a sabermetric idea. I don’t think that moneyball and sabermetrics are the same thing. A club can spend lots of money and still favor a sabermetric approach to scoring runs, and playing defense. Also agree with DT’s point on the value of defense in the Tiger infield, although I think they can do much better with how they’ve used the players that they have. It’s not that we can conclude Prince will decline physically, but the money in this deal is not worth the risk. The odds of him living up to his contract by the end of it are pretty slim, IMO.
I have disputed from the beginning that the Tigers were going “defense first” when they had Laird, Inge, and Everett (the big LIE). DD shot the payroll, with $ 82 million in bad contracts on the books, and they were going cheap, cheap, and cheap. I dispute that there is some sound logic in signing Everett, other than they didn’t have money to spend. Yes, those guys were all good with the glove, but he couldn’t have gone any cheaper at SS than he did. If he had any money, he’d have gotten another Renteria, or Peralta, and he showed what he’d do when he had some budget to work with. If DD gave a rat’s arse about defense, we would not see Peralta being signed, Raburn at second, or Delmon on the roster.
I probably think about baseball in a very similar way to the SABR analysts, and I love Tango and Cameron, but I can totally justify this signing, other than the length of the contract. Simply take Fielder’s value, in WAR or wOBA, subtract whatever you lose defensively by moving Cabrera to 3B. I cringed at the thought of Betemit’s glove at 3B (yes, similar to Raburn at 2B) but when the alternative is Inge and Kelly, I don’t think there is anything to talk about. Any hit you take defensively is obliterated by the added punch in the lineup.
There’s another factor at play, here. That is Mike Ilitch. He’ll be 91 by the time this contract expires, if he’s still around. There’s a big factor of “I don’t care, just give me a winner”. Is that short sighted? Yeah, but the dude is 82 years old and he knows you can’t take it with you. His kids won’t starve because of this contract, and he doesn’t need to feel sorry for them having to deal with the contract if it’s an albatross in the latter years. We can only hope that the kids will be as committed to winning as he is.
"King of Minutiae"
But it's a brown fat...
Brought on by cold weather:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/25/health/brown-fat-burns-ordinary-fat-study-finds.html
Fair.
I don’t disagree with any of that, but to play devils-advocate:
I think the Tiger’s front office thought Jackson and Laird would hit, and both those moves plus Everett were more affected by having no money to spend. Anyway, Everett and Laird were replaced with Martinez and Peralta, so if it was an attempt to find value in defense, it was abandoned for “run producers.”
2.) This is true, but is there any disagreement that Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder are poor defenders? Maybe we can’t be specific, but saying this will be a bad infield if it indeed is Cabrera-Peralta-Santiago-Fielder seems safe. No one is advocating going defense first, are they?
3.) This worked for Fielder’s team last year. The Brewers had a bad infield and won a bunch of games. But, I can see your Verlander and Scherzer and raise you a Porcello and Fister.
4.) This, I agree with totally. David Ortiz and Jim Thome would be another good, unathletic DH scenerios. But if we just take “dollars” as a ballpark, Fielder will need to be as good an offensive player as his best few seasons in Milwaukee for the duration of the deal to make the WAR/$ work, right?
I’m just trying to avoid rose colored glasses, but I like the deal better than Pujols or Ryan Howard, or probably even with Texiera. Firstbasmen are expensive, I guess. Probably a good reason not to have two.
But, the point is to win and they should win this season (they should have scored 1000 runs in 2008, but I digress) and, like I said, we are all dead in the long term. Who knows. If they can flip V-Mart for something of value next winter, the deal looks a lot better.
I like arguing, so I'll respond
1) I’m not sure they thought Laird would hit, nor did I think they thought Everett would hit, and while they might have been cheap like TD said, they were also decent. I think that helped.
2) It’s true- they’re bad fielders. But I’m not sure fielding is as valuable as most sabermetricians think.
3) Fister isn’t a GB pitcher- he’s close to neutral. Porcello’s going to suffer, admittedly, but our top two starters are flyball pitchers, and our best prospect leans neutral.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
by David Tokarz on Jan 25, 2012 3:08 PM EST up reply actions
Agree on 2.5 points
maybe 3, depending what you mean in no. 1. My point about Everett is that the Tigers didn’t make any sort of philosophical decision to go “defense first” with LIE. They were stuck with Inge, and went cheap with Laird and Everett. The driving factor behind those moves was that the payroll was totally maxed out. Finding a SS or a C that can also hit is not an easy task, and players that hit at those positions are expensive. Once given some budget to work with, DD actually went “screw defense” and got guys that can hit at the infield positions.
My response to Cameron is to have a look at Ilitch’s age. Yeah, he mortgaged the future somewhat, or at least risked the future, but he’s being realistic about how long he might be around to enjoy his money.
One point to add to Cameron, is that you can add WAR at the back of your rotation, and it doesn’t mean diddly in the playoffs. So, going from an 86 win club to a 91 win club, if done that way, doesn’t help in the post season.
"King of Minutiae"
Arguing!?!?!
Who is arguing?
I agree that D might be over-valued, and, hey, the Tigers infield defense wasn’t good last season, either. I’ve talked myself down from the panic a little. If Cabrera can field passingly at third for a few seasons (GULP), he will add enough WAR from position adjustment to really make the WAR/$ passable, maybe even positive. And there’s at least a decent chance that Fielder holds up better than (shaky) precedent suggests.
Fister was 1.48 gb/fb last season. 1.36 for his career and trending toward grounders all three seasons. Its not extreme, but its there.
Fister's GB/FB ratio's
Year Age Tm GB/FB
2009 25 SEA 0.67
2010 26 SEA 0.87
2011 27 TOT 0.90
2011 27 SEA 0.85
2011 27 DET 1.01
3 Seasons 0.85
MLB Averages 0.80
Source B-Ref.com
I went to fangraphs
My assumption is b-r counts line drives and fangraphs doesn’t?
Apparently, yes
Actually, his K% has increased last year. If he can keep increasing like he did last year, he’ll be a respectable K pitcher by 2023.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
Hey
We might have a good defensive first baseman by then too.
by handsomerob1 on Jan 25, 2012 4:24 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Feh
Cameron forgets that roster spots have value too- getting 4 WAR out of one spot as opposed to getting 4 WAR out of two spots.
And at the same time, if we consider the price of wins as determined by the market, isn’t everyone dumb for bidding large amounts of money for Fielder (anything over the $125 million that their projections say)? Essentially, I question their interpretation of market value for players that can produce lots of WAR from one spot.
Granted, this is a messy, and kind of hasty argument.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
by David Tokarz on Jan 25, 2012 3:13 PM EST up reply actions
The fangraphs writers
hate every big deal and I think it is in large part because of your first sentence in reference to Cameron. The increasing marginal value of single player WAR is very often overlooked.
Market-value
The Prince Fielder AAV is right on par with other excellent offensive first basemen like Pujols, Tex, Gonzalez and (not as excellent) Howard.
the market for players seems to consistently come in at a higher rate than their estimates
They may view this is overpaying, but another view would be that their estimates are an unrealistic analysis of the market.
by Kurt Mensching on Jan 25, 2012 4:25 PM EST up reply actions
This is a real good point.
Are they really the "Blue Book" authority on player values?
"But the point is, finger-pointing is just what sports fans do when something doesn't go right." -- Kurt Mensching
by RealityIsOptionable on Jan 25, 2012 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
The whole defense equation may just work out in the Tigers' favor
So putting Miggy at 3B most days means we take a defensive hit vs Inge/ Kelly.
But now, we have Delmon at DH and Raburn goes to LF.
That upgrades defense in LF and at 2B, two positions.
Even assuming that UZR/ 150 is accurate in the number of runs allowed over 150 games- and I think it’s far from spot on, Raburn was a minus 20 to 22, Delmon a minus 3 to 10 the last two years, and how bad can Miggy be? Betemit was as bad as it gets, save for Reynolds (his new teammate) at about a minus 20. My guess is that Miggy is definitely negative, but not minus 20. So our overall defense improves.
Of course, the assumption here is that if we didn’t get Fielder, we’d have gotten Damon or some other DH type to replace Victor. If Delmon was headed to DH anyway, then this argument doesn’t start.
"King of Minutiae"
It's TD's wishful thinking
I’m guessing that DH will be quite a rotating door this year. Unless there are major changes in the roster, you’ll see DY get some time there,. Cabrera, Fielder, and Raburn will probably be regulars in the DH spot as well.
Against LHP, you might see Inge at 3B, Cabrera at DH.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
With the Tigers current roster,
rotating three or four guys through the DH slot seems like the best way to play it.
by knucklescarbone on Jan 25, 2012 7:04 PM EST up reply actions
I think lots of guys pulling some DH duty is a likely scenario.
For one thing, I don’t see Miggy playing 162 games, nor 150 games for that matter, at 3B, even if he is the primary 3B now.
"King of Minutiae"
50-60 games at 3B
is my estimate… the rest will be him and Prince splitting time at 1B/DH
Did we really just sign Prince Fielder? Holllllllllly sh*t.
I wouldn't hate that.
The possibility of an injury occuring at 3B scares the shit out of me.
Too early to tell.
The Tigers may not be done tweaking the roster, although I think they just withdrew from the Cespedes sweepstakes (just a hunch). But they could be looking to upgrade in LF one way or another, preferably with a better fielder with a decent OBP and some speed. That is what I would like to see, anyway, although Delmon may be difficult to trade.
by knucklescarbone on Jan 25, 2012 7:01 PM EST up reply actions
Depends on what they'd have done without Prince
If they’d have gotten another DH type- say Damon, that blocks Delmon from DH.
If Delmon goes to DH now, they need a LF’er, and they have Dirks and Raburn, or some combination of them.
"King of Minutiae"
Raburn in LF
Just a question Dog? Is Raburn really a better outfielder than Young?
Raburn is more groan inducing with his stupidity
but I think Delmon has a lot less outfield ability in general.
Without getting into UZR and the like
Delmon’s committed 32 errors in 703 career games. Raburn’s committed 44 in 502.
For what it’s worth, Raburn’s OF stats are 18 errors in 345 games, only a slightly worse rate than Delmon in OF. Raburn’s time at 2B has not been kind to him.
"Virtually all tactical ploys—the sacrifice bunt, the stolen base, the hit-and-run—operate on average to reduce run scoring." -- Eric Walker
He also has more range than Delmon
I think anyways, way to early to do a search to verify my hastily made assumption.
Any indications, information out there
about what other teams had been offering for Fielder?
Rooting for Tiger stripes, not pinstripes
by JerseyTigerFan on Jan 26, 2012 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
....
what other teams had offered Fielder?
Rooting for Tiger stripes, not pinstripes
by JerseyTigerFan on Jan 26, 2012 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
Apparently the Dodgers were about $50 million shy of our offer
Saw that on Twitter earlier but can’t remember who said it.
by handsomerob1 on Jan 26, 2012 2:54 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Or 2, or 3...
April 5th can NOT come fast enough!!!
I've thought all along the window for the Tigers started in 2012 and was open for 4-5 years
I spent most of my time on the old DetNews site predicting this, and started predicting it at the end of 2008. It was all about Mr I being an owner willing to spend, having two possible HOFers, and the pitching and talent on hand syncing up.
I’ve stated many times that the Granderson/Edwin deal was ALL about syncing up talent. Letting Polanco go was the same. By the time Verlander/Cabrera were hitting their 4 to 5 years primes the talent DD let go in 2008 and 2008 would be past their prime or at the end of it.
Could anyone have predicted the Tigers signing Fielder? Nope. But Mr I’s methodology and being able to spend was part of the prediction.
I’ve also long said that the surest way to NOT win was to try and win both now AND later. See: the Tamp Bay Rays. Fine organization, fine talent. But they never go in enough to make a push while they have their talent sync’ed up. They are trying to do both, win now and later. Sorry, doesn’t work. The Tigers have two possible HOFers and have done a nice job getting impact talent around them. In the draft, via trades, and FAgency. They have their window, and unlike the Rays who will keep reloading but won’t get over the top … the Tigers using all avenues of excellence will get there.
We’ve got a 4-5 year window. Luckily we have an owner who recognizes a team with two possible HOFers on it needs a budget commensurate with helping them win.
Of all the Detroit Tigers fans throughout their history, it just might be the best time in history to BE a Tiger fan. For the first time, we will have a core group that wins more than one World Series.
The starters have sync’ed up, some All-Star talent has revealed itself from the farm system, and we have HOF talent leading the way. Unlike every other generation of Tiger fans that came along who could say “we won one, but could we have won more?” This generation of Tiger fan will finally get a multiple World Series winner.
If your parents didn't have any children, chances are you won't either
2011 was a premie
Honestly, who could predict every single team in the Central would be so horrible?
But if it helps you to think I’m “wrong”, have at ’er.
If your parents didn't have any children, chances are you won't either
I don't see a single reason why the Tigers, without making external moves, would be better in 2012 than in 2011
No stars on the way up, no huge payroll savings to make moves, just no factors that stand out to indicate 2012 is “the year”.
In fact, even after tearing down the payroll after the 2009 season, which is why they traded Edwin and Granderson, and let Polanco go, they still had the same payroll when it was all added up, because they signed Valverde and Damon. They’ve been trying to win every single year.
Until this trade, the 2012 team was no better than the 2011 team. In fact, losing Victor made it worse. It was never about 2012. They had to make adjustments on the payroll after not making the playoffs in 2009, just as DD told us, and they did so.
"King of Minutiae"
I know you don't see a "single reason" T-Dog
Young players can’t improve in your mind. No problem, but wrong.
Also, I said at the time when DD traded Gamer/Edwin and let Polanco go that DD was sync’ing up his talent and it would all come together in 2012. Called it almost 3 1/2 years ago. Saw what we had, what their ages were, and predicted the progressions.
Voila, here we are heading into 2012, and things look pretty good.
Educated guesses based on DDs moves, taking into consideration what kind of owner Mr I is, and knowing the talent was sync’ing up for this coming season. I know T-Dog you don’t think there’s any difference between Justin Verlander in 2008 and Justin Verlander in 2012. After all, they were both on the roster, right? But there is a difference, just as there is a difference between hten and now with Scherzer, Porcello, Boesch, AJax, Avila, et al.
Trading Gamer and Edwin when he did was smart of DD. Same with letting Polanco go. He garnered more talent that sync’d up with what he had on hand. Both in terms of money and prime talent years.
Back in late 2008, it was predicted that the window would be open in 2012 and last about 5 seasons. Seems that is going to happen. Whether you like how the prediction came about is meaningless. The prediction appears to be more than true.
If your parents didn't have any children, chances are you won't either
Let's get a grip on reality
and not twist my words.
“Young players can’t improve in your mind” really?
“No difference between Verlander 2008 and 2012” really?
Not even remotely similar to anything that I’ve ever said. Nothing like setting up an imaginary strawman to argue with.
3-1/2 years ago, Scherzer wasn’t even in the picture, nor 2-1/2 years ago.
You hadn’t even heard of Boesch, and you had no idea how quickly Porcello would get to the majors 3- 1/2 years ago.
Here’s the reality:
After the 2009 season, Ilitch was not about to authorize an increase in the payroll beyond the $ 135 million that they were already spending. Even if DD let all the free agents walk and replaced them with minor leaguers, payroll was still going up due to contract increases and arbitration increases. He HAD to clear payroll to replace anyone. He had four players worth their contracts that had any value at all. Cabrera, Verlander, Edwin, and Granderson. He extended Verlander, kept Cabrera, and traded the other two.
Polanco was replaced by Sizemore, then Rhymes, then Santiago and Raburn. How’s that looking now?
Granderson was replaced by AJax. How’s that workin out?
Porcello gonna do better in 2012 than he did in 2009? And that’s gonna open a big window? Hardly.
DD had to make an adjustment on the payroll. It’s exactly what he said to us, and exactly what he did. He bought himself some wiggle room, took a hit with a .500 team in 2010, and when the bad contracts came off the books, he immediately got Benoit and Victor and the Tigers were instant contenders in 2011.
You talk about 2012 as if there was something magical about that year. There never was. It’s another year on the calendar that the Tigers are trying to win as much as possible. DD and Ilitch have been in “win now” mode from day one.
"King of Minutiae"
Actually, this is pretty dead on
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
by David Tokarz on Jan 25, 2012 5:59 PM EST up reply actions
If you are going to get a grip on reality.
Please do not squeeze to hard. I bruise easily.
"But the point is, finger-pointing is just what sports fans do when something doesn't go right." -- Kurt Mensching
by RealityIsOptionable on Jan 25, 2012 6:02 PM EST up reply actions
You really have an issue with someone disagreeing with you, huh?
Your opinion is always “reality”. M’kay.
Keep saying DD is “negligent” and other superlatives. I see the moves DD made, and why.
What can I say?
If your parents didn't have any children, chances are you won't either
No issue, just pointing out the facts
and I haven’t said DD is negligent this winter, or last winter, or last summer.
"King of Minutiae"
You have definitely used "negligent" and "DD" in the same sentence since the season ended
Or at least referred to DD as possibly being negligent by the end of the offseason.
by handsomerob1 on Jan 25, 2012 7:58 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
usually preceded by "would be"
as in leaving Inge/ Kelly to start at 3B.
Yep, I’d say that all day long.
"King of Minutiae"
Proof
I think they would be
and you can include some players with major league experience as well, excluding the core group of starters. The Angels, for example, have an abundance of infielders and there is no way on earth that they could even ask for Turner or Castellanos in exchange for Callaspo or Izturis.I think that DD is just being negligent by failing to address the team’s needs.
by handsomerob1 on Jan 25, 2012 8:01 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah
You call DD negligent a lot.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
by David Tokarz on Jan 25, 2012 8:22 PM EST up reply actions
you can rub some frost from the freezer
but Mr Optionable has plenty of snow of his own
by Kurt Mensching on Jan 25, 2012 6:36 PM EST up reply actions
It is melting
Not going to be a good Winter Carnival. :(
"But the point is, finger-pointing is just what sports fans do when something doesn't go right." -- Kurt Mensching
by RealityIsOptionable on Jan 25, 2012 7:12 PM EST up reply actions
you should still have plenty
despite 37 degrees today, I know we’ve still got plenty. but yeah, this has got to be a hard year to do statues with the constantly changing temp.
by Kurt Mensching on Jan 25, 2012 7:19 PM EST up reply actions
Were you saying this
before or after you decided that Mr I was taking all his money and screwing the Tiger fan by not signing the big name to take them over the top? Seems you were saying that they were doing things to prevent the Tigers from winning just a few days ago, but at the same time you were saying that everything they had done was preparing to make a contender in their 2012 window? Something doesn’t sync up.
Unless you take an extremely pessimistic view of Fielder's production, I strongly doubt this will be the worst contract at any point.
For example, Ryan Howard’s extension (in which he is getting paid more than Fielder per year to be a below average player) goes up until 2016. I’d also be surprised if Pujols’ deal isn’t much worse by 2017.
I know “not the worst deal in the world” is faint praise, but criticism of this as a historically bad contract (or even particularly bad as far as megadeals go – even without the hindsight of Crawford and Werth bombing in 2011, this is likely better than any of the huge contracts handed out last season) is overblown. Fangraphs can complain about how the deal will not have surplus value, but they themselves have published articles stating that the only long term deals that ever have are Pujols’ old contract and Miggy’s current contract so far.
So I guess that what I’m saying is that unless you’re the Rays and can magically get your superstar players locked up for the foreseeable future for well under market value (seriously, Matt Moore and Evan Longoria must love playing in Tampa more than they love money), this is the price to pay for elite talent.
It’s not good long-term, but it’s certainly not crippling either. And it’s obviously amazing for the next ~4 years.
by thepartybird on Jan 25, 2012 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
5 years ago people were saying that our window was only 2 or 3 years
and that we had to win now. The Tigers have built a championship caliber team that should compete until they decide not to. Some people neglect to realize that we have some great young talent in the pipe-line. 4 years from now, Jacob Turner and Nick Castellanos will only be 24-25 years old. Danry Vazquez will only be 21 years old. It will just be the beginning of another new era then, not the end of a 4 year window.
I read Fangraphs sometimes and the home team bias there is pretty heavy. When they done crowdsourcing for defensive ratings, Boston players got about 10 times more voters than the average team. Their power rankings were quite biased towards Boston also because of the preseason votes.
Sabermetricians sometimes forgets a fundamental tenet of economics
That the “value” of something is fundamentally “whatever somebody is willing to pay for it.”
The newer SABR-type statistics and comparison tools are incredibly valuable, but people (and organizations) sometimes make decisions for reasons other than the standard cost/benefit analysis system. It doesn’t make those decisions “wrong,” it just means that you can’t measure the success or failure or value using the toolset on which you’ve come to depend.
I drive a nicer car than I “need.” I’m sure that a sabermetric analysis of my car purchasing decision would chide me for overpaying for my car’s value over a replacement car…but I enjoy it. What can I say, I like leather seats, a sunroof and a turbo. If my goal in buying a car were to get from point A to point B in the most cost-effective manner possible, then I’d have failed miserably. But it wasn’t, and I didn’t. Reviewing every baseball decision on how it affects wins or other on-field behavior makes the same mistake.
Baseball teams do not exist to win championships. They don’t even exist to win games. They exist to make money and/or massage the ego and/or enhance the brand of their owners. Championships and even game wins are tactical objectives, not strategic goals.
Sometimes, teams will hold onto a declining “fan favorite” player1 or bring in an overpaid “marquee” player in order to keep fan butts in seats and branded apparel on bodies. Sometimes, an owner will say “Damnit, I just want to win, I don’t care if I’m overpaying, get me that damn trophy.” Since he’s the one deciding on the value of the trophy to him, he’s the one who can decide if the contracts necessary to win it were “worth it.” Yeah, you may say he overpaid, but unless you can guarantee that he’d have won that trophy with his lower-cost, more SABR-friendly team…he’d probably say that he made the right decision.
1 – Say hi to the nice people, Brandon Inge
"Virtually all tactical ploys—the sacrifice bunt, the stolen base, the hit-and-run—operate on average to reduce run scoring." -- Eric Walker
by johnmoz on Jan 25, 2012 3:58 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I still like many of the tradional stats
An RBI or Run beats a walk in every game that has ever been played in the history of the game. Winning the game is about putting runs on the board, not how many walks or strikeouts you collect. It’s no coincidence that the same players are usually at the top of RBI leader board every year. There is a RBI skill. Just because Tom Tango hasn’t learned how to measure that skill doesn’t mean that it doesn’t exist. RBI’s is not completely team dependent either, because each player contributes to the team. Some players contribute to the team more than others.
I follow sabermetrics closely, but not religiously. I think sabermetrics rejects reality. St. Louis and SF have won the last 2 World Series, but sabermetrics doesn’t know how to recognize that. The sabermetric community would “rather look good and lose than look bad and win.” Credit the quote to White Men Can’t Jump.
For me, Prince Fielder means: “We goin’ Sizzler, we goin’ Sizzler”
by Keith-Allen on Jan 25, 2012 5:19 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Heh
RBI correlates strongly to slugging percentage. So yeah, there is an RBI skill. It’s called “hitting for power on a team where people get on base ahead of you”.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
by David Tokarz on Jan 25, 2012 6:00 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
So, once again...
Austin Jackson is the catalyst of the Tigers’ offense
by handsomerob1 on Jan 25, 2012 7:59 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
There is a difference between using stats for their look back on an achievment
and using them for their predictive value looking forward. And that’s the biggest difference between sabermetrics and traditional statistics. Players have a certain number of at bats, and they enjoy a certain amount of success on a given team depending on their level of skill, level of luck, number of opportunities they had to be productive, and the level of skill of their teammates.
The RBI skill isn’t different from the hit skill. The guy who gets the most hits, especially certain types of hits, will get the most RBI, all other things being equal. Tango has a better grip than almost anyone on the probability of a player getting an RBI in a given situation because he has taken every imaginable factor into account. Of course it’s not completely team dependent. The primary factor is the skill of the player, followed by the number of opportunities that he has, which largely depends upon what his team mates do.
As it pertains to Fielder joining the Tigers, there is just no way it can be a negative thing, money notwithstanding. So he’s not worth $ 214 million, not worth his contract by the time he’s 38. So what? Lotta freakin good that money is gonna do Mr. Ilitch when he’s pushin up the daisies! At least he’ll be buried with a world championship to his name!
"King of Minutiae"
He could be worth $200 million easily
There might not be any surplus value in his contract, but that’s what you get from a Free Agent with track record that is HOF worthy. 9 years from now, Prince Fielder will be well past 500 HR’s, and might might be chasing Bonds, ARod, or Pujols for the All-Time HR record.
I totally agree with this
There are a multitude of ways that a player can add value. Pretty much, I think he has to add enough value to make the Tigers champions in order to cash in on the full value of the contract.
"King of Minutiae"
You think this signing guarantees a Championship?
just to clarify. I usually like what you have to say and hearing you say that we are definitely gonna win the World Series would make me feel better about this deal.
Rooting for Tiger stripes, not pinstripes
by JerseyTigerFan on Jan 26, 2012 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
Why are my posts double posting
and leaving off the body?
The rest of the post said that I generally trust your opinions, Tigerdog, and would feel much better about this deal if you said we were certainly going to win the World Series.
Rooting for Tiger stripes, not pinstripes
by JerseyTigerFan on Jan 26, 2012 2:46 PM EST up reply actions
There's no double post and the body is there
Apparently this Fielder business has made you crazy.
by handsomerob1 on Jan 26, 2012 2:55 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
sabermetric stats tell you what the eye can't easily see
and challenge “reality” in good ways.
Sabermetric writers, on the other hand, can sometimes take things a little too far. I consider myself a sabermetric follower, but I’d rather my team conduct its business like Detroit and win like Detroit, rather than be stuck looking up in the standings forever like the Mariners
by Kurt Mensching on Jan 25, 2012 6:35 PM EST up reply actions 5 recs
Yes, that's what I like about Sabermetrics.
It adds another perspective. I’m glad that it’s around too. It’s popularity is becoming universally accepted, and I think that helps the traditional managers and GM’s get the upper hand strategically. It’s good to know what the competition is going to do before they do it. I think sabermetric run teams are too predictable and lack the flexibility to be successful.
Theo Epstein on line one for you
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
by David Tokarz on Jan 25, 2012 8:29 PM EST up reply actions
That line worked last year
He’s with the Cubs now. All sense goes out the window with them.
by handsomerob1 on Jan 25, 2012 9:04 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think that's unfair
The Red Sox are a saber-inclined team. I’d love to be them (not their fans, mind you). Same with the Rays, who do some beastly things on a minuscule budget.
The problem is that making moves like “sign underperforming 3 WAR player and two 2 WAR role players in the offseason, profit” model is the “sabermetric” one. In reality, while you can make good moves like that, it doesn’t matter if you’re missing something really important (like how Oakland is missing a middle of the order masher- they can’t afford one and are having some problems developing one too. Good pitching though.)
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
by David Tokarz on Jan 25, 2012 8:29 PM EST up reply actions
Out of curiosity, which others teams are considered saber-inclined?
by syper17 on Jan 25, 2012 8:39 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
Hmm
Blue Jays (I think), Red Sox, Padres, D-Backs, Cubs, Rays, Rangers (maybe- I can’t remember), Cleveland, Seattle and Oakland.
A lot of em are small markets, which hurts, but there’s some success stories in there (Sox, D-Backs, Rays).
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
by David Tokarz on Jan 25, 2012 9:31 PM EST up reply actions
The Mets too
Sandy Alderson is the mother of moneyball sabermetrics. He’s the one that built the A’s franchise into greatness before Billy Beane swooped in and stole all the credit.
Good call
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
by David Tokarz on Jan 26, 2012 1:12 AM EST up reply actions
Blue Jays are extremely saber.
Their GM is a sacred cow for Fangraphs.
by thepartybird on Jan 25, 2012 9:39 PM EST up reply actions
Jeff Lunhow, new GM of the Astros, is a big sabermetrics guy
and is hiring like minded consultants from the saber community.
I don’t want to confuse sabermetrics with “Moneyball”. The latter is a philosophy for team building with a limited budget. Inexpensive players with less expensive attributes such as solid defense and on base ability are targeted. But a winning team still needs a few mashers, and just because a club stocks up on guys with a big stick doesn’t mean they’re ignoring sabermetrics.
"King of Minutiae"
Exactly
There is a big difference between moneyball and Sabermetrics. The Moneyball concept uses sabermetrics to evaluate actual value to try to find bargains on players. They are basically trying to find the best player on a small budget, and with baseball being what it is hope that all the chips fall the right way and they win big (Tampa does a really good job getting the chips to fall).
However, you can still use Sabermetrics to build a high payroll team, the Red Sox. They use sabermetrics not to try to find bargains, but to find the best players available at each position and then make a push for them. They aren’t looking for cheap players, they are looking at the best players.
The difference is fairly subtle but it is a big difference (if that makes sense…).
The Tigers probably have the 2 best players
It didn’t happen by dumb luck or sabermetrics either.
Boston’s won a few championships because of Manny Ramirez’s 10 year / $200 Million contract. Would a modern sabermetric run team of given Manny Ramirez that deal 12 years ago? I don’t think so. I think this Prince Fielder deal is no different.
by Keith-Allen on Jan 26, 2012 10:31 AM EST up reply actions
A sabermetric oriented team (Theo's team)
Handed out some pretty massive contracts: Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, JD Drew. So what’s your point?
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
by David Tokarz on Jan 26, 2012 10:40 AM EST up reply actions
Looking at it saberly...
Manny was a better player 12 years ago than Prince Fielder is now…
During Manny’s time in Boston he average 4.25 WAR per year (34.2). Figuring a 5 mil per WAR that comes out to 171 million, over 8 years (he was only with Boston 7.5 years) so they definitely got surplus value out of Manny if you look at it Sabermetrically.
Since Fielder has average 3.9 WAR since he became a full time player, we can only hope that he performs at Manny’s level of play for the time he is in Detroit.
As a side note, Manny also averaged 4.7 WAR in the 7 years before he got to Boston and signed that mammoth contract.
Due to inflation,
$200 Million back then is like $246 Million now.
by Keith-Allen on Jan 26, 2012 11:11 AM EST up reply actions
So he would be slightly below value
Saberly, at the time of the signing if he had maintained his WAR averages he still would have been surplus value, even with his reduced WAR he was still only slightly below WAR value, about 0.65 WAR over paid.
But would a modern saber inclined team give give Manny that same 10 year deal
or Fielder a 9 year deal? I still say no. Fact is the Tigers got Fielder, and not the Cubs or BlueJays.
by Keith-Allen on Jan 26, 2012 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
In other words,
Fielder was still available in the FA market at the of January because he scared away the Sabermetric run teams. In that article, Dave Cameron said something like there is no shortage of good 1b’s, so he’d only pay that much for player in a position of scarcity, like SS or 3b. How much value does Fielder because he plays 1B? About -12.3 RAR or 2 WAR.
Going back to what I said before, the sabermetric teams would rather “rather look good and lose than look bad and win”.
by Keith-Allen on Jan 26, 2012 12:05 PM EST up reply actions
That should be
How much value does Fielder lose because he plays 1B? About -12.3 RAR or -2 WAR.
by Keith-Allen on Jan 26, 2012 12:08 PM EST up reply actions
Question
Do you notice a common theme in all those saber heavy teams? Like the fact that they all have smaller budgets, and those who don’t (Cubs/Sox) are rebuilding or have a 1B?
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
by David Tokarz on Jan 26, 2012 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
That's a very good point.
I didn’t notice that. Thank you Professor Tokarz.
With Manny coming off the years he did
and the expected performance to continue, yeah they might because through Sabermetrics he was valued at that (actually he was valued at more than what his contract was if you average his WAR for his career), and he finished his time in Boston being close to the value of his contract. Using Sabermetrics Fielder isn’t worth the amount he got, which is why a non-Saber team got him and probably overpaid for him.
I would also contest what you said about “the Tigers have the 2 best players”. The Tigers may have the two best offensive players (Jose Bautista and Albert Pujols might disagree with that statement), but baseball isn’t just about offense. Defense (while in my opinion is over valued by Saber guys) is still an important part of the game and neither Fielder nor Cabrera are good at defense, as a matter of fact they are actually pretty bad at defense.
Looking at total picture there are at least 10 guys that can be put into the argument of best player with Cabrera, and probably 20 with Fielder. It all depends on what you are looking for.
I don’t see where you are disagreeing with me or what argument you are trying to make. Are you really just arguing to argue? I never said the Tigers were a Sabermetric team, I never said the Fielder signing was a Saber decision. I just said there was a difference between a Sabermetric built team and a Moneyball team. I also stated that at the time of his signing it is arguable that Manny was a good Saber signing. If you want to debate my opinion on that then I will be happy to, if not then I would appreciate it if you quit trolling me.
Verlander and Cabrera are the 2 best players
Prince is great, and in an elite class, but not one of the 2 best.
Oh, you think I'm trolling you?
I was just trying to have a friendly conversation. Just talking talking baseball. I’ll leave you alone for now on. Bye..
Yes
You were trolling. You kept asking the same question over and over without trying to make a point other then I was wrong without anything other than your question as backing.
The whole converstation was based on the difference between Saber and Moneyball and if the Red Sox were a saber team. You came in with Manny, to which we discussed how he could be defined as a Saber signing 12 years ago, and somehow you jump to we have the two best players in baseball and that has nothing to do with saber!!! What does that have to do with anything discussed in this string?
The Cubs are rebuilding and the Jays are on a budget
Who cares what their GM thinks?
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
by David Tokarz on Jan 26, 2012 4:30 PM EST up reply actions
I thought teams like them were the favorites to land Fielder
but Fielder held out for the best deal. If he was on Ebay, the buy it now button was a 9 year deal.
the red sox are also a team that spends ungodly money
that alone is reason to want to be them.
I’m not sure I’d want to be the Rays in the long run.
by Kurt Mensching on Jan 25, 2012 8:51 PM EST up reply actions
You can be a sabermetric team and spend ungodly money
It kinda helps.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
by David Tokarz on Jan 25, 2012 9:31 PM EST up reply actions
*insert comment about sabermetrics not understanding market forces and the value of a roster spot*
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
by David Tokarz on Jan 25, 2012 9:32 PM EST up reply actions
I find that sabermetrists typically don't understand market forces
They also usually undervalue roster spots. In their minds, 5 WAR from 3 players is equal to 5 WAR from one guy.
There you go.
by handsomerob1 on Jan 25, 2012 9:35 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Here's another cool link
A frequent commenter at Detroit Bad Boys might have been the first person to ever issue an intentional walk to Prince Fielder. The link is his father’s (and coach, at the time) account of the experience.
by handsomerob1 on Jan 25, 2012 2:38 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Haha, that's awesome.
Drink, and Drink, and Drink, and Drink, and Drink, and Drink, and Fight!
by Brand New Hero on Jan 25, 2012 2:54 PM EST up reply actions
his durability so far is a good sign
I know heavier players tend to break down earlier in their career… but I heard today that he’s only missed something like 13 games in 4-5 years? Not bad at all
Did we really just sign Prince Fielder? Holllllllllly sh*t.
A lot of that isn't even relevant to the deal.
Mo Vaughn is probably the most prominent and striking example in those discussions and he broke down when he was about 35, I think. If Fielder hits like Mo Vaughn until he’s 35, I think the Tigers will live with the year or two of a highly paid dead weight. Sounds a lot like having Magglio and Guillen on the roster, really.
Of course, it’s a lot more likely that he’ll slowly decline starting at around year 3 and bottom out around 2 wins at age 37, which is significantly better for the Tigers.
Adam Dunn is the only horrifying scenario that I can think of, and Fielder, for all of his extra weight, is definitely a far superior athlete to Adam Dunn, not to mention the fact that Dunn profiles as an entirely different hitter than Fielder anyway – Fielder is a very good contact hitter for someone who swings as hard as he does.
by thepartybird on Jan 25, 2012 3:28 PM EST up reply actions
Here is my opinion.
I understand that as far as WAR goes he is only a 3 win difference over VMart. What Prince does do in the post season is gives you another bat that can carry you through a series.
And he's A THREE WIN UPGRADE OVER VICTOR MARTINEZ
That’s pretty freaking awesome- especially if we can play Martinez/Fielder/Cabrera.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
by David Tokarz on Jan 25, 2012 3:14 PM EST up reply actions
If Miggy somehow played 3rd...
…and be 8 wins better than ingey.
Some guy on Fangraphs came up with a pretty stat.
Miggy is so much better with the bat than the best 3B this year by value (Longoria – Bautista played 3B like VMart played catcher last year) that he could be an unbelievably awful 30 runs below average and still be more valuable than Longoria.
I’d think the realistic projection is probably 20 runs below average or slightly better. Porcello will probably pull his hair out, but he’ll have the best lineup in baseball supporting him on the other side.
by thepartybird on Jan 25, 2012 3:39 PM EST up reply actions
Have him DH during Fister and KidRick's starts.
Obviously he needs to get in shape. That is the first and foremost.
But, we could have him play 3B for the starters with higher K rates. Could cost JV a no-no at some point this season but would make up for it offensively.
This gets to what I was thinking
The log jam at DH/1B doesn’t really exist in 2012 because VMart is gone, but it does in 2013. This gives us the luxury of easing Cabrera into third, giving him the days off at 3rd when we feel like we want better defense/give him a break/whatever. If he turns out to be adequate at third, great. If he doesn’t, we have an entire year to figure out the best way to move forward.
If he's competent enough to keep there...
Then he’s probably only between 10 and 20 runs below average. That’s usually the range of the worse defensive third basemen each year, not counting outliers. Worse than that and managers don’t keep players there. That actually adds between one and two wins to Cabrera alone and then you get the the WAR increase from Inge/Kelly to Fielder (4 to 6).
As much as a 7 WAR swing if Cabby is passably awful. But, I still don’t believe this is ship is gong to sail. More likely is V-Mart getting traded by this time next season, right?
Hmm, a VMart trade sounds like it could work, but...
I really don’t think he is getting traded, unless the Tigers really get fleeced and/or have to take on most or all of the remaining 25 million. He’s coming off of his 400th knee injury.
But hey, I happen to know that the Astros will be in sudden need of a DH.
by thepartybird on Jan 25, 2012 8:34 PM EST up reply actions
Especially considering they have one major league hitter
Who will be gone next year.
"I believe in a good kick in the ass. This— I believe. " -- Walker Percy
I tweet about stuff sometimes @jackhitts.
Can we pick WHEN we get our three wins?
I’ll take October for $ 23 million, Alex!
"King of Minutiae"
by Tigerdog1 on Jan 25, 2012 6:03 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
One interesting thing about a nine-year contract
Is that you’re paying somebody in 2020 with 2011 dollars. $214 million nine years ago is $264 million today, thanks to inflation.
Of course, the converse is that you’re paying somebody in 2020 for their production in 2011, but we knew that already.
"Virtually all tactical ploys—the sacrifice bunt, the stolen base, the hit-and-run—operate on average to reduce run scoring." -- Eric Walker
Absolutely
Miguels deal right now looks pretty good.
If your parents didn't have any children, chances are you won't either
Yes it does!
and I’d extend him if we could.
Miggy gets 22 mil per, Prince gets $ 23.5.
Between the two, I’d take Miggy by a little bit. He might not want to extend, and become a free agent when he’s a bit older, but he mightn’t mind another $ 50 mil or so being tacked on.
"King of Minutiae"
Tough to think about, but he'll be similar to Pujols
When Cabrera hits the market after 2015, he’ll be 32 and considered one of the best hitters in baseball. Sounds just like a guy that got 250M. I don’t think he’ll be a Tiger in 2016. Enjoy it now.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
What I data I would like to see is additional club revenue per playoff game
How many playoff games does Detroit need to win over the next nine years to make Fielders contract moot?
"But the point is, finger-pointing is just what sports fans do when something doesn't go right." -- Kurt Mensching
by RealityIsOptionable on Jan 25, 2012 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
Interesting.
I’m curious as well.
Drink, and Drink, and Drink, and Drink, and Drink, and Drink, and Fight!
by Brand New Hero on Jan 25, 2012 3:34 PM EST up reply actions
Rough estimate I've seen
Is something like $2 million per home playoff game. It’s actually more complex than that, since gate (but not concession) revenues from games 5-7 in an LCS or World Series are split evenly between the two teams after the league takes a cut instead of just going to the home team.
"Virtually all tactical ploys—the sacrifice bunt, the stolen base, the hit-and-run—operate on average to reduce run scoring." -- Eric Walker
Awesome. Thanks.
That’s a butt load of money if you make the playoffs consistently.
Drink, and Drink, and Drink, and Drink, and Drink, and Drink, and Fight!
by Brand New Hero on Jan 25, 2012 3:54 PM EST up reply actions
The biggest impact of a playoff run is the number of season tickets sold
or anything else that leads to more season tickets being sold. That’s something you can’t exactly quantify, because there are several factors that go into a fan’s decision to buy a season ticket package.
Signing Prince will have an immediate impact on ticket sales. We might get some idea in the coming days how that’s going. Tigers getting out to an early lead and keeping it then helps walk ups throughout the season.
"King of Minutiae"
I'm willing to bet that season ticket sales will do well this week
And that’s where the real revenue is in attendance. Trying to make money on "walk ups’ is tricky business. If your team isn’t in the race in September, ticket sales disappear (unless they’re already sold as season tickets.) Even being an optimist, if your team is up in September by 8 games, tickets sales disappear. Season ticket sales are really, really important. When a season ticket holder doesn’t want to go to a game in September (that’s already paid for) they give it away or sell it cheap. Somebody gets a good deal on the ticket, goes to the game, and spends $50 bucks on $3 worth of beer and food.
I bet the Fielder signing just sold maybe 200,000+ season ticket packages. Maybe? Each of those tickets averaging about $30 each…tack on the additional money for food/beer/products, and the contract should be offset by well over a million a year, just at the gates. Then you’ve got jerseys, licensing…yada yada yada.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
They did this for the Cubs in the case they signed Prince on MLB Network.
It was if they signed Prince to a short term/higher AAV contract. Cannot remember exactly but it wasn’t a crazy number.
Doesn't that assume
Tigers would not have made the playoffs without Fielder?
Rooting for Tiger stripes, not pinstripes
by JerseyTigerFan on Jan 26, 2012 1:22 PM EST up reply actions
I didn't explain that very well
Obviously, you’re paying a 2020 salary out of 2020 revenues, so it’s not like inflation comes into play there.
Where it does come into play is the idea for what would be market rate for that player would be affected by inflation between now and 2020.1 Assume that $23.7 million/year is what his services are worth today — that’s like $29 million in nine years.
1 – And I’m just assuming that baseball salaries grow with the CPI — which I can’t believe is right, but don’t have time to research right now.
"Virtually all tactical ploys—the sacrifice bunt, the stolen base, the hit-and-run—operate on average to reduce run scoring." -- Eric Walker
It comes down to one thing: Illitch doesn't care much about marginal money
He’s got it to spend and he wants the trophy.
Pre-salary cap days, the Red Wings would sign whoever they wanted. They often needed to get to the Finals just to break even…and he did it anyway.
Exactly
Fielder is the Hasek signing of the Tigers. Win now. Don’t care what it costs.
"Virtually all tactical ploys—the sacrifice bunt, the stolen base, the hit-and-run—operate on average to reduce run scoring." -- Eric Walker
Win now and win later and then just keep winning and winning and winning.
That’s what the Red Wings have been doing.
Value
Maybe I’m just thinking like an 82 year old billionaire, but it would seem to me that the value of the contract really rests entirely on whether or not the Tigers win a World Series sometime in the next few years.
Considering that World Series championships are about a once-per-generation event in Detroit, $200 million doesn’t really seem to be that expensive. I understand that here are economic considerations and although there are business-like elements in sports, it is not a profit driven enterprise like a stock market listed corporation with shareholders to answer to. Emotion plays a big part in sports. Interesting to hear Cecil say that Ilitch also wanted the young Prince.
Let’s hope it pays of with a ring!
If he died and we won the next year I think he would still be happy.
It is so awesome to have a guy who owns a team in a city he actually cares about. We have seen this with the Wings and now get to reap its benefits with the Tigers.
Spending his money on the Wings
"Virtually all tactical ploys—the sacrifice bunt, the stolen base, the hit-and-run—operate on average to reduce run scoring." -- Eric Walker
Pretty much
The NHL salary cap might be the best thing to happen to the Tigers since 1984/7 (take your pick, old timers).
by handsomerob1 on Jan 25, 2012 11:27 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
He was younger then.
He may not have felt the urgency. I’m not old enough to say, but I’d imagine there is a big difference between how you feel at age 65 and at age 82.
by St Barth Tiger on Jan 26, 2012 1:29 PM EST up reply actions
3b matters
The Tigers allowed the third most balls in the 3b zone among AL teams last year. The two teams above them were well configured to defend at that position with Toronto leading the majors in +/- and Cleveland faring well using that metric as well as leading MLB in RZR.
I like Phil Coke's Brain's entry today
http://philcokesbrain.wordpress.com/2012/01/25/you-are-the-1/
Especially the “Come at me bro!” meme.
"I believe in a good kick in the ass. This— I believe. " -- Walker Percy
I tweet about stuff sometimes @jackhitts.
We all understand that
9 years and $214 million is a gigantic contract. For whatever reason, the pundits must emphasize that they all know this too and that Detroit and its fans are ignorant to it. However, what if the Red Sox, Yankees, or the Cubs would’ve done this? No way do they get blasted like everyone has been. When the Yankees gave A-Rod that contract, yea sure there were people against it, but the national media loved the move because…well…they’re the Yankees. In addition, we all know that Cabrera and Fielder are below average fielders, but the same goes for A-Rod and Derek Jeter. Jeter has been below average for about the past 5-7 seasons on defense compared to other shortstops. But since his name is Jeter, he automatically wins Gold Gloves that are undeserved, and makes all-star teams because of his name. But since ESPN praises players like Jeter, every time he makes a good play, they must play it over and over and over because he’s Derek Jeter. Look, this is not to say that Jeter is worse than Cabrera or Fielder, but we are still more than capable of winning the whole thing with a below average defense. Unfortunately, this probably means that we shop V-Mart next season for either pitching or speed since I’m not sold on Austin Jackson’s ability to be a consistent lead-off hitter. It’s not like he didn’t see good pitches to hit last season, but he strikesout on fastballs more than anyone I’ve seen in a long time. This season, I hope he gets on base since pitchers are gonna be more than willing to pitch to him than our new 3-4 combo. GO TIGERS!
Oh yea...and about Brandon Inge
For whatever reason, a few seasons we let Mr. Inge hold leverage against us, even though a season in which he hits .250 would be considered a huge success. Yet, we gave him a big contract considering he’s a defensive player only. Basically, he’s a defensive replacement when we’re up 1 or 2 runs late in a game. But we decided to pay this guy $30 million to do it. Furthermore, we let this guy bitch about not wanting to play catcher and only wanting to play 3B and get away with it. Leyland needs to tell him to shut up and know his place on the team. Who cares if he complains? If he starts becoming a headache in the locker room, send him to Toledo. A player like Inge should never hold a team hostage, and should never be able to complain to the point where he gets his way since he’s above average defensively, but can’t hit the Mendoza line. Sorry, had to get that off my chest.
Great signing for Detroit
Prince is da bomb
Vegas odds say Tigers now a 4 to 1 fav to win Series
He’s always open. He catches a lot of balls. He’s un-guardable, no matter how old he is
Although the Cubs are 6-1 (at least that's what I saw on the Worldwide Leader last night)
So I wouldn’t use that as evidence of anything.
by thepartybird on Jan 25, 2012 8:47 PM EST up reply actions
That can't be right
Can it?
"I believe in a good kick in the ass. This— I believe. " -- Walker Percy
I tweet about stuff sometimes @jackhitts.
It probably is
Easy money for Las Vegas bookies from delusional Cubs fans.
by handsomerob1 on Jan 26, 2012 7:47 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
It Still Comes Down To Pitching and Defense
Verlander will be 29 this season
Fister and Schnerzer will be 28
Turner, Oliver and Porcello are all a lot younger than those three.
Assuming that the Tigers can keep all those pitchers for the next 6 years and they continue to perform near to or above what they did last season the Tigers should be just fine for a good portion of Fielder’s contract assuming the bullpen is solid. Valverde and Benoit are the only two over 30.
Fielder just needs to produce over his contract like he has in the past
Per 162 games over the last six seasons.
Games 160
HRs 37
RBI 106
and that will work. Though I would like to see him up his OPS.
The option to DH of course will help towards the end of his contract.
Miggy WAR stats at 3B is good
I hope Miggy will think this is a challenge and exceed our expectation.
Boesch
I am so pumped the last two days like everyone else!
A couple of points: Assuming Cabrera bats 3rd and Fielder 4th, isn’t #2 slot in the Tigers lineup the best place to hit in all of baseball. This really helps Boesch (or Young) who is a free swinger to see more strikes/good pitches to hit. It also is a boost to Young (or Boesch) in the 5 slot because their will be often be runners on base so he will also get pitched to.
My next question is what happens to the plans for Nick Castellanos? Put him back to SS or assume that Cabrera is short-term at 3rd and headed for full-time DH once Vmart’s contract expires? Or move Castellanos to 2nd? I have no idea but am wondering what you all think?
The amount of money and years for Fielder blows my mind, but who cares it is Illich’s money not mine. Having those two back-to-back should make for an incredible season.
continue to assume Castellanos is actually a corner outfielder.
by Kurt Mensching on Jan 25, 2012 6:33 PM EST up reply actions
this
but Miggy can’t play 3B forever… hell, it remains to be seen if he can play it at all anymore. at some point he’ll have to transition to full time DH if him and Prince are both still here. Castellanos still has some developing to do, so we can worry about that when he’s ready to contribute at the big league level
Did we really just sign Prince Fielder? Holllllllllly sh*t.
Boesch says he wants to hit 2nd
He thinks there won’t be any more RBIs to be had if he hits 5th.
by handsomerob1 on Jan 25, 2012 8:04 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I wonder if Skip is going to actually bat Avila somewhere other than at the bottom of the order.
Seeing as he was, you know, the Tigers’ second best hitter last year.
And Young should not be anywhere near the heart of the order on either side. Some people have said that he will get a ton of fastballs while hitting in front of Cabrera, but why would anyone pitch aggressively to a guy who hacks at everything? Boesch got on base to an above average .341 clip – I think he’s the guy for the 2 spot.
by thepartybird on Jan 25, 2012 8:57 PM EST up reply actions
I'm guessing you see it like this:
Jackson, Boesch, Cabrera, Fielder, Young/Peralta, Avila, Peralta/Young, DH/LF, Santiago
That’s R-L-R-L-R-L-R-?-S…Nice staggering.
I’d guess you’ll see Young at 5 and Peralta at 7, but it all still depends on how the DH/LF/3B situations shake out. The Tigers haven’t officially announced their intentions.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
Hell, the Tigers haven't officially announced the Fielder signing
Let’s make it that far first.
by handsomerob1 on Jan 25, 2012 11:42 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm very much looking forward to that press conference
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
It's an in person presser, and the Tigers haven't even announced the contract yet
so the news of a presser is a leak at this point.
"King of Minutiae"
That has been mentioned here before.
By the time he is ready for the bigs his defensive skills might be better suited for the outfield.
Apparently he is a growing lad.
by knucklescarbone on Jan 25, 2012 7:06 PM EST up reply actions
I swear I read on this site...
…that scouts were saying he might be too “something” to play 3B. Tall? Lanky? Something along those lines, and suggested a position change is in order.
Either way, if he can rake like we think he can, he’ll find a position. We aren’t going to hamstring out best hitting prospect into one position simply because there’s a hole at the MLB level. He’ll go wherever his bat and body play best. If we need to get another 3B (in a few years) to bat 9th, so be it. Hell, someone might emerge. I had never even heard of Boesch before he decided to become a stud. Maybe there’s another guy in our system waiting for a chance.
That said, there is no way Cabrera plays 3B for more than a few years, if at all. He could stand in that circle they used to cut in the grass for Magglio and let Jackson get everything hit outside the circle.
While i'm a fan of the Prince signing (even if by the end "it's an albatross")
where does this leave castellanos? Is he trade bait (doubtful)? is he going to push Martinez out early (put Castellanos at 3rd, Cabrera at 1st, and Prince at DH) ? does he play in left field? just wondering what BYB thinks.
while I am a fan of sabermetrics, obviously, here's some accounting that shows why I don't mind the Tigers making a move like this
AL Central team wins 2006-2011:
Detroit: 519
Minnesota: 507
Chicago: 497
Cleveland: 470
Kansas City: 436
As long as the goal of the game is winning, I’d say the Tigers have done that. The Tigers also have the most wins for the past 5 seasons, and the past 3 seasons.
and the next few seasons look like they'll be pretty fun
5 years from now, as long as Dombrowski doesn’t leave us to become the MLB commish or something, I’m sure the GM will find a way to wriggle his way through things.
by Kurt Mensching on Jan 25, 2012 8:13 PM EST up reply actions
Surprising that we have the most wins
Considering that we have 1 division crown and Minnesota has 3 during that span.
by manic in Detroit on Jan 25, 2012 9:21 PM EST up reply actions
we were within one turned double play, one HBP, etc, of that being a 2-2 tie.
by Kurt Mensching on Jan 25, 2012 9:30 PM EST up reply actions
And a bad weekend in '06 from it being 3-1 Detroit
by handsomerob1 on Jan 25, 2012 9:31 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yup
The Twins have gotten exceedingly lucky.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
by David Tokarz on Jan 25, 2012 9:33 PM EST up reply actions
Their karma failed last year
and they are unlikely to be close enough in September to be a problem this year. Just that they come through if they have the chance (except against the Yankees).
by manic in Detroit on Jan 25, 2012 10:32 PM EST up reply actions
There's another example
The flyout that Kelly lost in the ceiling. Cursed Dome of doom.
Talking about these nightmares is the first step in therapy.
by manic in Detroit on Jan 25, 2012 10:57 PM EST up reply actions
There WAS a HBP
but the bass turds didn’t call it!
The most useful thing Brandon Inge has done in his life and he never got credit for it!
"King of Minutiae"
Something worth thinking about
The Tigers TV contract expires about 2/3rds of the way through the contract. If Prince has helped make the Tigers a major contender for that duration, and therefore the TV ratings are considerably higher than when this current TV contract was signed, the Tigers could wind up being able to deal with a relative albatross contract the last few years by virtue of their spike in revenue.
What bugs me?
I keep hearing on TV,Radio & News stations,that the Tigers are only the fourth best team in the A.L.(behind Texas,Angels,and Yankees).Personally,I think we are much better than the Yankees (we proved this much last year,w/o Prince) and at the very worst there is a two or three way tie for first with Texas and Detroit being #1 and Angels being #1(a) at best.We may have lost Victor,but we gained his production + some,while giving our young starters another year closer to becoming 100% productive,ie.Max,Rick and now Fister.Not to mention a healthy Boesch,Avila,and Delmon Young.(givin he is not traded away at some point).Last but not least,I am almost possitive that whomever our #5 starter is this season,will contribute much more to our teams success than last years #5.(unless we re-sign him):(
Cory Smith
Tigers are just traditionally
a team that gets less love from the national media. It’s not worth worrying about. Pundits don’t decide championships, games do.
Well
Unless we’re talking about college football…
by metatron5369 on Jan 25, 2012 9:34 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
one poll is coaches, and one is media
combine them, and add a computerized formula.
2/3 of it is opinion polls.
"King of Minutiae"
I thought the BCS got rid of the media poll
Something about how the AP pulled out because they felt the poll was having an undue influence on how the game was being played.
"I believe in a good kick in the ass. This— I believe. " -- Walker Percy
I tweet about stuff sometimes @jackhitts.
Correct... sort of
The AP poll is not part of the BCS formula. However, there is another one called the Harris Poll that is apparently made up of Bugs Bunny, Ozzie Guillen, the gay couple from Modern Family, and some media guys.
by handsomerob1 on Jan 26, 2012 7:50 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Texas got no national media
until they got in the World Series and Nolan Ryan and Bush became photo-ops.
by manic in Detroit on Jan 25, 2012 10:46 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know where you've been hearing that.
ESPN was proclaiming the Tigers as all but a total lock to win the World Series last night.
by thepartybird on Jan 25, 2012 9:02 PM EST up reply actions
ESPN is setting us up
in case Boston gets in the playoffs this year.
by manic in Detroit on Jan 25, 2012 10:40 PM EST up reply actions
Whew. My head is still spinning...
I get back to the states from a 21 day tour in Asia and get greeted with this awesome news.
Wow. Just…wow.
(Un)Official President of the Team Jacob Turner Fan Club
Yet Another Movie Blog
by DetroitTigersGeek on Jan 25, 2012 8:54 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Imagine if this news had broken on day 2
And we were already 3 weeks into discussing it. Then your mind would be blown sideways.
by handsomerob1 on Jan 25, 2012 9:06 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I would have lived in an Internet cafe
If that had happened. Thankfully, the FO saved the exciting stuff for the times when wi-fi won’t cost this poor college kid ridiculous amounts of cash!
(Un)Official President of the Team Jacob Turner Fan Club
Yet Another Movie Blog
by DetroitTigersGeek on Jan 25, 2012 9:48 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
DTG, sorry to be a stalker
but the Asia tour piqued my interest. I followed your profile to your blog, and sure enough, you go to Calvin!! I sang in Capella for a year and a half myself, culminating in the Europe tour of ’08. Just had to make the Dutch bingo!
The only Tigers fan in Honduras.
Great move
Now sign Edwin and Cesepedes and make him a 2B..
Is Palanco available.
He still would be better and any 2B we’ve has since he left.
Who's Palanco?
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
by David Tokarz on Jan 26, 2012 1:14 AM EST up reply actions
leo palanco
i think he made my coffee yesterday?
Just to even things out a bit, here is how we celebrate at MGoBlog: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FM6im0588OU
I’m so stoked about Prince back in Detroit!
I had tigerblood in my veins long before Charlie Sheen went crazy.
Go Tigers!
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