Looking into the future

by Muttcutts on Jan 25, 2012 7:39 PM EST

So, 2012 is looking like it's going to be pretty sweet. 2013 on the other hand. Ruh-roh. Let's take a look at the numbers.

V-Mart jumps back to $15M for 2013 & 2014

Arbitration (Super 2) increases for:

Andy Dirks (?)

So how do we afford all of these salary increases while paying Cabby, Prince and Verlander over $60M? Well....

My guess is the Tigers will cross their fingers that Jacob Turner, Drew Smyly or Casey Crosby will be ready to be a reliable big-league starting pitcher in 2013. Thus, I think a trade of Max Scherzer or Rick Porcello next off-season is inevitable, preferably coming off of strong seasons (reload the farm system). I would hold on to Fister as he will be going into his first arb eligible off-season next year.

Of course, the Tigers could do the unthinkable and trade Cabby for a King's ransom, but I hope/pray they do not do that. Delmon Young will be gone. So will Brandon Inge via buyout. Jhonny Peralta can be bought out, but we'll see if he can come close to his 2011 all-star season. Papa Grande will most likely be gone as well. Perhaps Benoit can step into the closer's role for the final year of his contract. Either way, it will be very tough for the Tigers not to stay below a $130M payroll moving forward. Hopefully, they can find enough league minimum youngsters via trades that can fill some of the holes investing in 3 players will inevitably cause. The cupboard is pretty bare down in Toledo, so I would bank on a big trade involving one of our starters.

I love the Prince Fielder signing, but like many others fear it will be an albatross in 3-4 years without a reloaded farm system to consistently fill in the holes.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bless You Boys writing staff.

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Simple

Valverde, Inge, Young, and Raburn are off the books. That’s $24 Million that we won’t be spending right there.

by Keith-Allen on Jan 25, 2012 7:57 PM EST reply actions

Forgot about them

I was only thinking about the extra space this year compared to his $130MM payroll. But adding that to it next year makes it more reachable. Plus Dirks and Pauley are replacement level anyhow, and Kelly could be considered so also.

by Let's do this! on Jan 25, 2012 8:03 PM EST up reply actions

That means we could go full-Yankee...

…and sign another ace pitcher to a $24 mm contract!

/ducks

by Thorpac on Jan 25, 2012 8:04 PM EST up reply actions

Yes, it may be difficult to keep them all around

But before the Fielder signing, the Tigers payroll was going to be around the $78MM mark. That’s $59MM less than 2008’s payroll and $55MM less than 2010’s payroll. Is it smart to have half of your payroll in three or four players? No, not at all. But it’s not really going to kill them when it comes time to re-signing these players. With the exception of Scherzer, none of those listed players will get a pay raise that could make you hesitant or make the Tigers not sign them through their arbitration years.

Where we may get into a mess is when Verlander becomes a free agent. Re-signing him will be expensive, as well as Cabrera. But until we get to that point, I’m not at all concerned.

by Let's do this! on Jan 25, 2012 7:57 PM EST reply actions

$78M?

Before Prince, the payroll was approximately $109M. We saved 75% of Vmart’s contract this year, so he only counts for 3.75 and we add in Prince at $24 so we wind up with a payroll of over $120M with a few roster spots to fill.

Justin Verlander – 20
Doug Fister – 0.45
Max Scherzer - 3.75
Rick Porcello – 3.1
David Pauley – 0.45
Phil Coke rlp – 1.1
Colin Balester - 0.45
Daniel Schlereth – 0.45
Octavio Dotel – 3
Joaquin Benoit - 5.5
Jose Valverde closer – 9
Austin Jackson - 0.45
Brennan Boesch – 0.45
Miguel Cabrera – 22
Victor Martinez – 15
Young – 6.75
Alex Avila c – 0.45
Jhonny Peralta ss – 5.5
Ryan Raburn – 1.5
Ramon Santiago – 2
Don Kelly - 0.9
Brandon Inge – 5.5
Gerald Laird – 1

by Muttcutts on Jan 25, 2012 8:17 PM EST up reply actions

I stand corrected

Stupid me forgot to include the bumps to players… my bad.

by Let's do this! on Jan 25, 2012 8:54 PM EST up reply actions

A lot of these guys will be getting modest raises at best

Don Kelly will still probably be under $1 million (and maybe even gone, depending on how someone like Worth does this season).
Dirks and Pauley might not even get raises. If they do, it will be in the thousands.
Phil Coke will probably make about the same, possibly more. Relief pitchers don’t really get rewarded in arbitration.
Scherzer, Fister, and Porcello’s salaries will likely depend on how they perform this season, but I doubt they get astronomical raises. Remember that as good as Fister was last season for us, his W/L record was still crap, which may be used against him when it comes to salary.
Jackson and Boesch will probably get small raises, but nothing serious (unless Boesch puts up 40/120 this season, which could happen).

Avila is really the only one looking at a huge jump in salary, and with $25 million coming off the books (with the possibility $9M more in Dotel and Peralta), I think they will be able to afford it.

Detroit4Lyfe

by Rob Rogacki on Jan 25, 2012 9:13 PM EST reply actions 3 recs

That's kinda what I was trying to also say...

But I think I’m still getting over the Fielder signing hangover…

by Let's do this! on Jan 25, 2012 9:48 PM EST up reply actions

I'm sorry, the only thing I comprehended from that comment was...

Boesch puts up 40/120

drooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooools

"Goaltending is a normal job, sure. How would you like it in your job if every time you made a small mistake, a red light went on over your desk and 15,000 people stood up and yelled at you."
-Jacques Plante

by DetroitSports on Jan 26, 2012 6:36 PM EST up reply actions