My take on the Prince Fielder Signing
by Glenn DuPaul on Jan 30, 2012 12:45 PM EST
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I write my own blog called Baseball's Economist, feel free to check it out. My latest post deals with the Tigers monster free agent signing. Let me know what you think
The Detroit Tigers came out of nowhere Tuesday, and signed baseball’s number 2 free agent, Prince Fielder to a massive contract. The Mariners, Nationals, and Rangers were all rumored to be front-runners in the race for the first baseman’s services, but in the end it was Detroit who swooped in to win the race. Fielder’s father, Cecil, played six and a half seasons with the Tigers, where he hit 245 home runs for the franchise. His son will now reside in Detroit for the next nine seasons, and make an incredible $214 million ($23.7 million AAV). Is the hefty first baseman worth such a monster contract and does he have the ability to put the Tigers over the top in a loaded American League?
My weighted average projection based on Prince’s last three seasons, is that Prince will be a 5 fWAR player for the next two seasons. Then I simply assumed Prince would decline by a half a win per seasons once he turns 30. Using linear-dollars per WAR to calculate the dollar value of this production (with a 5% inflation rate), I came to the conclusion that a simple projection of Prince’s worth over the course of this contract would be $184 million. Thus, the Tigers overpaid for Prince by $30 million if you assume he’ll decline in the same way a major leaguer with a typical body would. That last assumption is critical in this analysis, because Prince is not your average major leaguer; he is 5’11” and 268 pounds. Fangraphs did an insightful analysis of how heavier players decline, and based on that graph it seems as though Prince could decline much quicker than projected, and be worth even less than $184 million. Fielder might be a $23.7 million player now, although I’m not sure he is (for example: in 2010 he wasn’t close to being worth that type of money), but 4,6, 9 years from now? It’s ridiculous to think he would be. Thus, financially this was the wrong move for Detroit, but they have the talent to win now, and this factor brings up a whole new set of questions.
The fact of the matter is that the Tigers know this contract will end up being an albatross, they know Prince won’t be worth it in the end, but they don’t care. If Prince Fielder can bring a championship to Detroit; that could be enough in their front office’s mind to justify this contract. The Tigers were as good as any team in the league last year, in which they reached the ALCS. Detroit sat back all off-season and watched the Angels sign Albert Pujols and CJ Wilson, the Rangers sign Yu Darvish, the Rays make super-prospect Matt Moore a member of their starting rotation, and the Yankees acquire Michael Pineda and Hiroki Kuroda. They also lost their third most productive hitter, Victor Martinez for the entire 2012 campaign. Detroit essentially had to make a move, to give them a chance to compete against the premier clubs in the A.L.
Last season Martinez hit a wOBA of .368 mainly at DH, which produced an fWAR of 2.9. That’s a large chunk of production missing in the middle of the Tigers’ lineup, which Fielder can now seamlessly fill. In even his worst season, Fielder amassed a better wOBA and fWAR than Martinez did last season; thus replacing Martinez with Fielder will help the Tigers overall. Now Detroit has the option to move Miguel Cabrera to 3rd base and let Fielder play first. Cabrera has 389 career games at third with a DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) of -30 and UZR/150 of -4.5, which isn’t horrible, but those games were played a long time ago when he was in better shape. A possible strategy would be to start the very inconsistent Brandon Inge at 3rd and have Cabrera DH. If Inge can perform at his 2010 All-star level (2.1 fWAR), then the Tigers will be a very good team in 2012.
The 2012 Detroit Tigers will have a lineup that includes, Cabrera, Fielder, Alex Avila, Jhonny Peralta, Austin Jackson, and Delmon Young. Their rotation boasts Justin Verlander, Doug Fister, Max Scherzer, and Rick Porcello. On paper, it looks as though the Tigers are set to match their 2011 win total of 95 wins (48.5 fWAR), but are they really? I aggregated FANS projections to give a fairly accurate projection for fWAR of the 2012 Tigers, of 49.6. The projected team total fWAR of 49.6 makes the Tigers, a 92-98 win team in 2012. Thus, even though the Tigers will lose Martinez in 2012, the addition of Fielder is enough to make them a playoff team and World Series contender. Prince Fielder’s legacy in Detroit will be defined on whether or not he brings them a World Series, because if he does not, an overpaid fat 36 year-old first baseman will be all that’s remembered.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bless You Boys writing staff.
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Illitch saw an opportunity to make some noise
and he ran with it. There comes a time when a team needs to push all its chips forward and go all in. We have 2 potential hall of famers smack dab in the middle of their primes. We play in an extremely winnable division. The goal for this team even before Prince was not to simply win the Central, it was to win a pennant.
Signing Prince gives us a deadly lineup and the best 3-4 hitting combination hands down. Our window for winning a world series opened last season, and even if we don’t win; you won’t be able to say we went down without putting up a fight and doing everything possible to raise one of those flags in Comerica Park.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." -Rogers Hornsby
by InLeylandWeTrust on Jan 30, 2012 1:02 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
^This^
Sums it up for me. Both Miggy and Fielder are fairly athletic big men, they should have 5 dominating years together. Can’t ask much more than that.
Baseball Geek
by StorminNormanCash on Jan 30, 2012 5:43 PM EST up reply actions
The only fact is that your analysis is completely one sided.
Prince Fielder has never had any health problems. He’s averaged 160 games a year. Since 2006, he’s been the most durable player in MLB. Link to Fangraphs chart from 2006-2011.
Prince Fielder is also just 27 years old. He’s one the youngest great players to ever hit the free agent market. His contract is no different than other contracts that have players signed until their 36 years old.
Adrian Gonzalez will be making about $21.5 Million until he’s 36 years old.
Mark Teixeira will be making $22.5 Million until he’s 36.
Ryan Howard wll be making $20-25 M until he’s 37.
Joen Mauer will be $23M until he’s 35.
For all we know, Fielder will have MVP type seasons for the next 4 to 6 years in the Tiger’s line-up. Being in one the best American League line-ups will only help. Fielder might accumulate 50 fWAR by the time this contract is up and he might be seeking another multi-year contract when he’s 36.
Heavy players decline faster? How is that? Those graphs don’t tell you what is declining besides their fWAR. Is the playing time declining due to injures or poor performance? There is a world of difference.
The main concern is that Fielder’s health will decline, but until that starts to happen, any regression analysis is worthless due to that it’s a fact that he’s been the most durable player in all of baseball for the last 6 years.
The analysis shouldn’t be pigeonholing Fielder for being heavy either. Being that I’m a heavy person, I think it’s very discriminating and distasteful. Callously calling people fat is pretty ignorant also.
The analysis and research should try to be more productive and focus on other great HR hitters,such as
Hank Aaron,
Babe Ruth,
Willie Mays,
Ken Griffey Jr.,
Sammy Sosa
Barry Bonds,
Jim Thome.
If you study the HR frequency numbers, power doesn’t decline at all. In some cases, the HR % actually improved well into the players mid to late 30’s. Bonds and Sosa can be excluded if you like, but still this group of players hit homers at about the same frequency through-out the prime of their careers. The only variable was the amount of Plate Appearances that they had each season. Prince Fielder’s health history makes him a great candidate that he won’t decline much before the age of 36. He could be right on track to join these guys in 600 Home Run Club before he’s 40 years old.
The other fatal flaw of your analysis is that fWAR diminishes the value of a 1B or DH with it’s replacement and positional values. Fangraphs will try to tell you that Ben Zobrist is as valuable as Albert Pujols. That’s albatross of absurdness. Zobrist is a fine outstanding player, but he’s not even close to being HOF worthy in real world.
This is what fWAR is doing to you:
Fangraphs will make you believe that offense is only about 25% of a players value (less or more depending on the player). In reality, a players offensive value is probably closer to 90% than 25%. fWAR is terrible when comparing one position like SS to a different position like 1B. It’s like comparing apples to oranges. When you compare apples to apples and oranges to oranges, then fWAR works a little better. Fangraphs is making progress, but they are slow to make changes; even when they know if something is blatantly inaccurate, such as UZR with a less than 3 year sample size.
When it’s all said and done with this contract, the Tigers will have spent $214 Million, but they might have 10 straight play-off appearances, and have a world series or 2 under their belts. So how bout dem apples?
by Keith-Allen on Jan 30, 2012 4:16 PM EST reply actions 7 recs
Damn!
Outstanding post!
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." -Rogers Hornsby
by InLeylandWeTrust on Jan 30, 2012 4:22 PM EST up reply actions
That .gif is hysterical
Great find.
by Rob Rogacki on Jan 30, 2012 4:35 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I weigh 300+ lbs...
and I have only missed 2 days of work in the last 5 years. I’m also willing to bet my job is on par with the physical demands of a baseball game.
Do I see myself calling in more in the future because I’m heavy? Nope.
Great reply Keith.
My only issue is assigning a dollar value to war. A player like prince appeals so much more to the average fan therefore creating a greater buzz than some like joey votto. as old and crazy as Mr. I sounded at the press conference he does have a solid understanding of who fills the seats at the park. Brain matters had a nice post on this over the weekend and Forbes had a nice article on the illitich family and their assets.
by syper17 on Jan 30, 2012 5:05 PM EST via iPhone app reply actions
In all honesty, I stopped being interested when I saw the phrase "I simply assumed"
Then I simply assumed Prince would decline by a half a win per seasons once he turns 30.
Did we really just sign Prince Fielder? Holllllllllly sh*t.
My take on the Prince Fielder signing
is that it is totally awesome and really gave me some excitement just waiting for the season to start. I been having a rough winter so thank you Mr. I for giving me a wonderful distraction.
As noted up-thread, Fielder is the most reliable guy in the big leagues over the last 6 years. He won’t hit for average like Cabrera, but he adds a lot of power. Although Comerica goes on forever in center, I’m sure Prince will find the right field bleachers and Kaline corner quite accessible. This is the guy who used to hit monster shots in batting practice at Tiger Stadium on a regular basis as a 12 year old. He totally belongs here. Expect 30-40 homers and 110 RBI for the next 9 years. Same production from Cabrera. Sheesh! Martinez was a great player and hit for average and was a tough competitor, but Fielder is another type of player entirely. Specifically, he’s the three run homer type of player. Maybe next year we have all three of Fielder, Cabrera, and Martinez! You kiddin me? With the rest of our lineup. And we do have a bunch of faster young guys to be the rabbits, like Voesh, AJ, Dirks. Fielder’s only 27! I have no problem seeing why it was totally irresistible for Mr. I. Thank you, thank you, thank you Mr. I. That’s my take on the Fielder signing. Thank you, thank you, thank you Mr. I. Awesome.
"Greatest Tigers first baseman of all time"?
I expect he’ll be very good indeed, but he has a long way to go to top Hank Greenberg.
Won't be better than Miggy either
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." -Rogers Hornsby
by InLeylandWeTrust on Jan 31, 2012 6:39 PM EST up reply actions
We got a great combination of hitters in a row, except we still need someone who is going to set the table by being able to get on base leading off. Austin Jackson is not that player, at least the last couple years, and I have serious doubts that he ever will be. Hopefully, they can sign Cespedes to fill that role, and move Jackson down to the bottom of the order, or maybe even trade him.
I'd be excited about Cespedes if we signed him
And I hope we do, but I don’t believe that the scouts project him as much of an OBP sort of guy.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
Cecil Fielder's numbers dropped at age 33.
Despite his size Prince seems to be in better physical shape and more a harder worker than his father so I expect him to put up 30 to 55 hr until age 34 – 35. And who know what salaries will look like then.
disregard the "more"
change the wording and forgot to delete it
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