Poll: Where should Al's son bat? The Story of Alex Avila

Promoted to the front for discussion -- Kurt

As we all know, Alex Avila had a huge break-out year last season and was one of the reasons why the Tigers ran away with the AL Central Division. One of the most intriguing things about his season though, was his spike in OBP, which was .389. One of the most controversial topics about this surge was that he spent almost half of the season batting 8th. He did move up to the 6th and 7th spots as the season progressed, but many people felt that he should of been batting at the top of the order.

The disturbing part is that Avila scored just a measly 63 runs (19 of which were from home runs) despite reaching base 191 times. He scored just 23% of the time that he reached base. The American League average for the 8th batter is 32%.

Here's a table that compares Scoring %'s (runs-hrs) / (hits+walks-hr)

I do find it troubling that he scored just 44 times out of 191 scoring opportunities. The low Scoring % isn't Avila's own fault. I blame the guys batting behind him; Raburn, Inge, and AJax for the most past. They strike out too much and are less efficient in moving up base runners. Together they are rally killers.

Avila's OBP wasn't padded by 2 out situations either. He had a .405 OBP with no outs, a .414 OBP with 1 out, and with 2 outs his OBP was .352.

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/9/2012.

Avlila's weakness is that he strikes out a lot, and when he tries to be aggressive, he strikes out even more. His strength is being patient, working the count, waiting for a pitch to pounce on, and taking the walk if he doesn't get that pitch. He thrives with or without men on base, with less than 2 outs. With a man on 3rd base with less than 2 outs, his OPS is a staggering 1.130, but with a man on third and 2 outs his OPS is 0.600.

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/9/2012.

By some measures, Avila's success doesn't look sustainable either. He had a .366 BABIP, which was well above his career BABIP average of .329. So some regression to his batting average may be on it's way. Regardless, he could still be more productive if his approach to hitting stays the same and his spot in line-up improves.

Now back to question that burns in everyone's mind, Leyland's line-ups.

Last season, I understood part of the reason why Avila was batting in the bottom of the order. There actually was some strategy behind it. Victor Martinez was already in the DH spot, so if Avila got hurt during a game and VMart had to catch, we'd have no DH and the pitcher would be need to bat. If the pitcher has to bat, you want him batting at the bottom of the order, not anywhere near Cabrera, or in the heart of the order.

Once VMart got hobbled and couldn't catch anymore, it was even more important to keep Avila healthy. We couldn't risk him getting injured on the base paths. So batting him down in order also made some sense because he wouldn't need to run the bases nearly as much. Less base running kept Avila healthy enough to play nearly every game after the All-Star break.

This year is a different story now that we have a real back-up catcher with Gerald Laird. So the question is where should Avila bat?

Batting 1st: His OBP would be optimized. Would his legs hold up though? Is it worth risking his health? I think we're trying to win games here, not just avoid injuries. So if AJax doesn't bounce back, Avila would be one of my top candidates for this spot. Cespedes will be a top option too if we can land him.

Batting 2nd: He could do some serious damage here with both his patience and his power. He'd give the pitcher hell if the lead-off guy is already on base. He can take a walk and set the table too. At a minimum, he'd work the count and insure that the pitcher doesn't have an easy 1st inning. With his power, we could immediately put runs on the board before the meat of the order comes up.

Batting 3rd: His patience would get tested here because nobody wants to put him on base and face Cabrera next. He'd probably be hitting in 2 out situations more often, which is something he's not good at yet. Boesch done extremely well batting 3rd last season. Delmon Young done well production wise here also. We could move Cabrera up to the 3rd slot as well. So we're not short on guys that can bat 3rd.

Batting 4th: This means Cabrera would be batting 3rd and he'd still have a few big bats behind him.

Batting 5th: He has better legs than VMart's, so this could make some sense.

Batting 6th: Behind Cabrera and VMart. Great spot for RBI's.

Batting 7th: Only if we're trying to save his legs again. The guys behind him likely won't be playing small ball.

Batting 8th: From MLive: "Leyland is senile. He wants Laird to bat 8th on Avila's days off, so Avila bats 8th too."

Batting 9th: Pass. This spot belongs to Inge, Raburn, Kelly, Santiago, Laird, or AJax.