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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

Tigers' Matt Garza talks with Cubs progressing?

Its been awhile since we heard anything on the Matt Garza front. But we've got a little more smoke blowing out of the Chicago media.

David Kaplan of CSN Chicago wrote today:

Excellent baseball sources have confirmed for me tonight that the Cubs are down the road in discussions with the Detroit Tigers to send Matt Garza to the Motor City in exchange for a package of prospects.

In case you, like me, wondered what the heck "down the road" means, he clarified on Twitter:

When I say "down the road" on trade talks with the Tigers for Garza I mean that talks have progressed far beyond the initial stages.

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus added:

Heard Tigers are open to talking Jacob Turner, but far more reticent when it comes to 3B Nick Castellanos.

Star-divide

Last week, we heard reports that Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski wasn't "shopping" Jacob Turner. I highlighted Lynn Henning's story, but MLB.com's Jason Beck wrote a similar story saying the Tigers weren't pursuing starting pitchers.

I noticed in the comments section, and maybe I should have addressed it, that people seemed to take this to mean Dombrowski wouldn't trade Turner. But he very clearly didn't say that. There's a difference between calling up fellow GMs to ask what they'll give you for Turner, and listening to their suggestions of trading a veteran player for Turner. It's possible Turner could be traded still, but he's not being actively marketed.

That said, I still don't feel like the Tigers are going to be moving Turner and others for Garza. I mean, I'm not always right -- despite what Big Al tells you at the start of every podcast. But this suggested trade possibility just doesn't smell right to me given Dombrowski's history. Maybe it gets done if the Cubs accept less than Turner, but I just don't see how you could justify trading Turner for Garza when he's just not necessary at this point.

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2 years of Garza + $20MM, for 6 years of Turner at probably less than $10MM

I confess … I don’t get it.

Why in the hell would the Tigers make such a move? Unless they ‘know’ something about Jacob.

Justin can now let the fungus grow back on his shower shoes.

by Singledigit on Jan 9, 2012 10:15 PM EST reply actions  

IF Turner is as good as Garza, he'll cost quite a bit more than that

He’d hit $ 10 mil in his fifth year, having spent $ 12 mil in the 2 years previous, depending on the timing. That’s that good pitchers get paid.

"King of Minutiae"

by Tigerdog1 on Jan 10, 2012 1:14 AM EST up reply actions  

Dejesus,Maholoum, & Turner

The cubs may have 3 guys THAT I WOULD have perfered be in Det.

by Wolverine119 on Jan 10, 2012 2:41 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

What is not to get?

Garza is a proven MLB pitcher, a rock-solid, consistent, playoff-proven veteran. He has little to no potential to become an ace, but he’s also unlikely to flame out.

Turner, is cheaper yes, and has more upside, yes. There’s also a strong chance (objectively, you could call it probable) that he’s no better than a replacement-level 5th starter, at best.

The Tigers, if they want to improve their immediate prospects of winning a title, need to spend money and make these kinds of deals.

I’m not going to do flips about Garza, but he’s a guy that is almost surely going to give the Tigers a much better chance of winning the 30-35 games that he starts than Turner or whatever replacement-level option they will throw otherwise. AND he’s probably a significant upgrade over Scherzer or Porcello in a playoff series.

Given what happened in the Cabrera trade, you’d think fans would give Dombrowski a little more faith, but some people just can’t let go of Smoltz.

by lankownia on Jan 10, 2012 2:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Disagree

I honestly don’t think that Garza gives us much better of a rotation than just letting Turner pitch as our 5th starter right now. Why give away a lottery ticket?

If you want my honest opinion, we should go after a stop-gap one year replacement (Brad Penny type) and let Turner have at least a full year at triple A.

by Ohio Tiger on Jan 10, 2012 3:29 PM EST up reply actions  

To be fair

We wouldn’t be giving away a lottery ticket, we would be trading it. To take that analogy to an absurd and meaningless extreme: Anytime you want to trade a $5 bill for a lottery ticket,you let me know.

by rif23 on Jan 10, 2012 3:34 PM EST up reply actions  

good analogy

Lotto tickets are more often than not worthless and a stupid investment.

by lankownia on Jan 10, 2012 3:59 PM EST up reply actions  

We do have a winning lottery ticket here

We just haven’t cashed it in yet. We can take a lump sum, which doesn’t pay out nearly as much, but is the equivalent to getting Garza. Or we can collect the full amount in monthly payments for next 15 years.

by Keith-Allen on Jan 10, 2012 4:25 PM EST up reply actions  

You're comparing Matt Garza to Miguel Cabrera

I shouldn’t even need to illustrate why that is wrong.

by Rob Rogacki on Jan 10, 2012 4:46 PM EST up reply actions   2 recs

turner

all you guys thinking turner is the next verlander…scratch that..he cant throw anywhere near 100 mph..he can’t hold runners on 1st base….if you’re waiting on turner to be the next stud…verlander will be 32 by then…the time to win is now…i say make the deal

by paul wall 1962 on Jan 13, 2012 5:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Meh

That’s really the only way I can respond to this trade…

"Goaltending is a normal job, sure. How would you like it in your job if every time you made a small mistake, a red light went on over your desk and 15,000 people stood up and yelled at you."
-Jacques Plante

by DetroitSports on Jan 9, 2012 10:16 PM EST via iPhone app reply actions  

I'd do Turner and fringe pieces, maybe

But that’s a big maybe. I also trust this front office with it’s decision making.

"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz

"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching

Contributor, Bless You Boys

by David Tokarz on Jan 9, 2012 10:27 PM EST reply actions  

when it comes to trades

Our front office has earned the benefit of the doubt

by rif23 on Jan 10, 2012 8:39 AM EST up reply actions  

that seems to be true

if the TIgers traded Turner, I’d sell on his future.

by Kurt Mensching on Jan 10, 2012 9:26 AM EST up reply actions  

Maybe the Cubs are trying to dump some salary on us

Alfonso Soriano and Matt Garza for a package of prospects, not including Turner or Castellanos.

by Keith-Allen on Jan 9, 2012 10:38 PM EST reply actions  

Interesting angle - Soriano is owed 54M for the next 3 seasons.

I don’t think the Tigers would take on much of Soriano’s contract, especially if we are interested in Cespedes. It’s a curse and will cripple just about any team that takes it on except a really big budget team.

However, if we’re content with DY in LF this season at 6-7M, there’s no reason we might not be willing to trade DY for Soriano and put Soriano out there for 3 years at 7M per year. That would keep the Cubs about as competitive this season and give them 15M of flex in 2013 and 2014. Couple that with the prospect(s) they would get from the Garza end of the trade and they’d probably be in better shape in 2013 and certainly in 2014 when Garza would be gone anyhow. If I’m the Tigers, I wouldn’t give up Turner or Castellanos in this deal, but I’d part with Smyly and Crosby.

Tigers get Soriano, Garza and about 30M for Soriano’s 54M remaining salary
Cubs get Young, Crosby, Smyly and perhaps a few lower-level guys. (And 15M in salary relief per Soriano)

I think the deal actually helps both teams. However, Cubs might be able to get more for Garza.

The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981

by momotigers on Jan 9, 2012 10:58 PM EST up reply actions  

The more salary the Tigers take on

The less they would ultimately give up in prospects. I’d take on more salary if I were Mr. I in order to keep the farm system relatively safe.

by Rob Rogacki on Jan 10, 2012 10:24 AM EST up reply actions  

Say YES to D. Young/prospects for A. Soriano/Garza...

I spoke with several Cubs fans just after Christmas who loved the idea of getting D. Young and pitching prospects from the Tigers for Matt Garza, A. Soriano and cash…

As noted, here and on previous BYB threads, the Cubs would get payroll relief and the Tigers would get Garza and better speed and top of the order hitting with same defense as D. Young or R. Raburn in A. Soriano for a little more money without decimating the Farm system.

by Boomer Dog on Jan 13, 2012 9:05 AM EST up reply actions  

I'd really like to hang on to Smyly if Turner goes...

but I don’t see that happening if this deal goes through.

I’d love this deal if they could do a Smyly/Crosby/Collins type of deal, but I’m sure it starts with Turner. Where it ends will decide whether I’m on board.

by BayesLaw on Jan 9, 2012 10:41 PM EST reply actions  

My guess

If it goes dwn its…..Turner, Crosby, Brantly, & Fields… I still dont like it though

by Wolverine119 on Jan 10, 2012 5:55 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Wolverine

If DD were to make THAT trade, I’m afraid I’d have too walk to Detroit and strangle the freakin’ nimrod. WAAAY too much (IMO, of course).

by timot on Jan 10, 2012 10:41 AM EST up reply actions  

I like your thinking

The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981

by momotigers on Jan 9, 2012 10:59 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd like to add Smyly into your list of "untouchables" for a Garza deal...

Maybe DD can mix in some snake oil and get the Cubs excited about Andrew Oliver… he is the left-handed starter that the Tigers should be willing to move out of the Crosby/Smyly/Oliver bunch.

How about Oliver, Fields, Schlereth, and Avisail Garcia? Those are four young players the Tigers should be willing to deal for a player that they don’t need.

"All aboard! There is plenty of room."
Brennan Boesch Bandwagon Conductor

by trross1200 on Jan 9, 2012 11:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh jeez

If you’re going to talk trade, at least take one moment to put yourself in the Cub’s shoes. Four tainted prospects do not equal one decent prospect.

Oliver can’t find the strike zone and still doesn’t have enough reliable pitches. Schlereth can’t find the zone either. Both might somehow “get right”, but I think (and the Cubs know this too) that it’s much more likely they’ll just wind up on the list of countless guys that have good enough arms to pitch in the bigs, but could never make it because pitchers in the bigs actually have control.

Fields and Garcia are also in the same boat. Both have tons of tools, but just haven’t been able to translate into results. Both of them strike out way too much, which makes me think everything looks like a fastball to them. Sadly, a lot of them aren’t. Maybe they’ll develop some pitch recognition to go with their tools, but it’s much more likely that they’ll just wind up on the list of countless guys with lots of tools but an inability to handle good pitchers.

The Cubs can get MUCH, MUCH more than a package of these four for Garza.

However, if you’re right, I’ll be stoked.

The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981

by momotigers on Jan 9, 2012 11:31 PM EST up reply actions  

I guess you did a better job of proving my own point...

Matt Garza is not a player that the Tigers need in order to compete in the AL Central in 2012. With that, I don’t think that the Tigers should have to give up anything that the organization really values… like premier prospects (read as Turner, Castellanos, Smyly, etc)

"All aboard! There is plenty of room."
Brennan Boesch Bandwagon Conductor

by trross1200 on Jan 10, 2012 12:12 AM EST up reply actions  

They May Win The Central

But we want the World Series Too. And I don’t see Turner, Castellanos, Smyly, etc doing that for us this year, but Garza, yes he could really help us get there this year.

by TigersFan1957 on Jan 10, 2012 12:44 AM EST up reply actions  

Do you believe that Garza would have helped the 2011 Tigers?

Because with roughly the same roster, I’m not sure how he puts the 2012 Tigers over the top.

What I remember seeing in the playoffs was a Tiger’s team that needed another impact bat in the lineup, and another intimidating arm out of the bullpen. Without that, the 2012 Tigers probably won;t do any better than the 2011 variety.

"All aboard! There is plenty of room."
Brennan Boesch Bandwagon Conductor

by trross1200 on Jan 10, 2012 2:12 AM EST up reply actions   2 recs

bingo

It wasn’t the starting pitching that hurt the 2011 Tigers at all – it was the lack of any reliable bullpen depth and missing another bat. Too many easy outs in the lineup.

The Tigers didn’t need a Matt Garza last year, they needed just a bit more hitting.

Random nonsense at @Baroque97

"It is a mistake to try to look too far ahead. The chain of destiny can only be grasped one link at a time." --Sir Winston Churchill (1874 – 1965)

by Baroque on Jan 10, 2012 3:47 AM EST up reply actions  

Tigers In 2011

The Tigers finished 2011 fourth in all of baseball ( AL & NL ) in Runs Scored behind Boston (875), Yankees (867), Texas (855), Tigers (787).

The Tigers finished 2011 seventeenth in all of baseball in least amount of Runs Allowed (out of 30 teams).

This team scores enough runs to win, they just need to cut the amount of runs given up. The pen was worn out by the post season, Avila was tired, Boesch, Victor, Young were sore or injured. Our team is/was not loaded with a lot of easy outs. We had bad luck with weather too.

There was alot more to it than what you posted.

by TigersFan1957 on Jan 10, 2012 11:40 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree that the bat would have helped

However, you can win games by limiting runs as well. In one of our losses to Texax, we lost 3-7. A bat may have helped us score over 7 runs, but it’s more likely to limit the other team to <3 by adding a pitcher than it is to score >7 by adding one bat. In the last loss, we surrendered 15. Some additional SP depth might well have limited damage in that game. In our four losses to Texas, we surrendered 3, 7, 7, and 15 runs.

I’m not saying I advocate a farm-gutting trade to the Cubs. I’d probably favor any trade that involves prospects not named Turner or Castellanos, but I could be on board with a Turner-based trade as well. Garza would certainly help our post-season chances in both 2012 and 2013 more than anyone in our system.

The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981

by momotigers on Jan 10, 2012 8:05 AM EST up reply actions  

I agree with you 57

Any time you can add a proven major league starter to your team you alway improve your ball club.There is also the chance that someone could get injured.By getting Garza the Tigers would be setting there sites on a World Series Crown.I say make the trade and go for it Verlander and Cabera are in there prime.

by swish330 on Jan 10, 2012 5:22 PM EST up reply actions  

Brantley, Smyly, Dirks, Oliver

If young Theo says “no” … then so be it.

Justin can now let the fungus grow back on his shower shoes.

by Singledigit on Jan 9, 2012 11:13 PM EST reply actions  

Turner, Castellanos, Young for ...

Garza, Castro, Soriano and $20MM?

Justin can now let the fungus grow back on his shower shoes.

by Singledigit on Jan 9, 2012 11:24 PM EST reply actions  

Yes.

Tired of generic music??? Exterminate All Rational Thought is here to help!

by Siggzilla on Jan 10, 2012 12:26 AM EST up reply actions  

Castro is a bit tainted now

pending an ongoing criminal investigation. Do not want.

by norman.leroy on Jan 10, 2012 1:26 AM EST up reply actions  

a criminal investigation doesn't taint his ability as a baseball player

I’d take Castro on this team in a heartbeat

No longer the Founder, President and CEO of the Ryan Raburn Fan Club

by tigers22 on Jan 10, 2012 8:19 AM EST up reply actions  

true

but being incarcerated kind of hinders the ability to be a productive member of the team. Just ask Ugeth Urbina about that.

"I'm a simple man. I like pretty, dark-haired women and breakfast food" - Ron Swanson

by rock n rye on Jan 10, 2012 9:35 AM EST via Android app up reply actions  

haha he's not about to be incarcerated

he just pulled a Big Ben and he’s a pro ballplayer… they’ll turn a blind eye

No longer the Founder, President and CEO of the Ryan Raburn Fan Club

by tigers22 on Jan 10, 2012 10:15 AM EST up reply actions  

Video games

Told me that I could trade Schlereth, and Wilk for Albert Pujols. Any particular reason we didn’t get that done? God, Dombrowski, you are an awful GM.

by TartanElk on Jan 10, 2012 1:02 AM EST up reply actions  

I have a feeling that that much money may not actually exist

Simply due to pizza sales. Though, I admit sometimes Little Caesar’s sounds good enough to buy that much. Then I sober up.

What is that anyway? Like 500 billion? Or am I way off?

by TartanElk on Jan 10, 2012 1:35 AM EST up reply actions  

Don't forget the most anticipated feature

NUH-UH! I SAID SO. THERE ARE SOME FACTS THAT EXIST THAT I DON’T HAVE RIGHT NOW BUT IT’S TOTALLY TRUE mode

by TartanElk on Jan 10, 2012 1:36 AM EST up reply actions  

Correct spelling mode is OP.

I have a grand idea: let's win a game.

by 13194013 on Jan 10, 2012 3:32 AM EST up reply actions  

Give Me Garza

We can get Garza for an unproven Turner??? Do it in a second. However I wouldnt throw in any other big name prospects. Maybe Oliver and Turner.

by BennieBladesFan on Jan 10, 2012 12:23 AM EST reply actions  

Question

What did Tampa Bay get when they traded away Garza and how does that compare to our prospects?

by amaizian on Jan 10, 2012 3:01 AM EST reply actions  

Cubs traded

Hak-ju Lee, Chris Archer, Sam Fuld, Brandon Guyer, and Robinson Chirinos. The trade gave Tampa three of their top 12 prospects for 2012 including a top 30 guy in Lee. also gave catching depth with Chirinos and outfield depth with Fuld.

by bdlugz on Jan 10, 2012 7:19 AM EST via Android app up reply actions  

Yeah. He keeps getting traded to cheap teams as he gets more expensive.

The Twins trading Garza was a mistake on their part, but they did get Delmon Young back (who had pretty good value as a post-hype prospect in 2007).

The Rays were busting with pitching, as they always seem to be, and Garza was beginning to get expensive. Their budget is never too big, so they got a haul for him and simply slid some another of the pitchers from their droid factory into the rotation.

The Cubs are looking for way to trim payroll and stockpile for 2013 and beyond in a year when they won’t compete. We trade Granderson for the similar reasons and he was the furthest thing from a problem.

The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981

by momotigers on Jan 10, 2012 8:24 AM EST up reply actions  

as long as it's not Turner AND Castellanos

I guess I’d be on board. Although I really don’t see the point in parting with Turner for another SP.

But I’m on board with what most of you have already said. I’d love it if there was a way to put together a package that didn’t include either of Turner or Castellanos, but I don’t see that happening.

No longer the Founder, President and CEO of the Ryan Raburn Fan Club

by tigers22 on Jan 10, 2012 8:23 AM EST reply actions  

It's a timing thing with Turner

If the Tigers really want to win in 2012, Turner probably isn’t your best choice for the rotation. First, there will certainly be a learning curve. The best you can probably expect is a repeat of Porcello’s rookie season, not Verlander’s. Second, I bet Turner is on about a 160-170 inning limit next season. With a shaky front of the bullpen, you’d much rather have Garza eating 200-210 innings than leaving that extra 40 innings to the middle relief. Third, you can just about lock in Garza’s numbers. With Turner, his ceiling next year is probably those numbers while his floor is a question mark every fifth day. Finally, Garza slides in at #2 or 3 and pushes Scherzer and Porcello back – he makes us much stronger at 3-4 rotation spots.

The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981

by momotigers on Jan 10, 2012 8:29 AM EST up reply actions  

I agree with what you're saying

but I don’t think we are in a situation where we should only be trying to win in 2012. I like how we’re built for the next 2-4 year window and Turner can definitely help us in that time frame.

No longer the Founder, President and CEO of the Ryan Raburn Fan Club

by tigers22 on Jan 10, 2012 10:17 AM EST up reply actions  

Like, years 3 and 4. But Garza helps more in years 1 and 2

I also think that if we use Turner, DD will try to extend Garza for a year or two beyond arbitration. I’m thinking he offers 3/36 or 4/50. The really sews up our rotation for a long time, but still leaves us flexibility to trade the relatively cheap guys (Fister, Scherzer, Porcello) if we need to readjust our roster.

The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981

by momotigers on Jan 10, 2012 10:29 AM EST up reply actions  

yeah, I still agree with you

but I also think Turner’s ceiling down the road is better than Garza’s

No longer the Founder, President and CEO of the Ryan Raburn Fan Club

by tigers22 on Jan 10, 2012 10:49 AM EST up reply actions  

I think they're close, but I'll agree

I guess what we’re both saying that, “Man, it would suck to lose Turner”.

The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981

by momotigers on Jan 10, 2012 11:43 AM EST up reply actions  

haha exactly

No longer the Founder, President and CEO of the Ryan Raburn Fan Club

by tigers22 on Jan 10, 2012 3:50 PM EST up reply actions  

per a Henning retweet

(which maybe someone else can link too as I cannot while using the lovely SB Nation app) Epstien looking for quantity and Turner is off limits. So Oliver, Smyly, plus 2 might get it done. That changes my view of this trade a little bit, but I have no idea why the Cubs would do it

"I'm a simple man. I like pretty, dark-haired women and breakfast food" - Ron Swanson

by rock n rye on Jan 10, 2012 9:20 AM EST via Android app reply actions  

Porcello's Arbitration?

Could this rumour be in any way related to Porcello choosing arbitration? Can a team come to an agreement with an arbitration eligible player and then deal him?

by grath on Jan 10, 2012 10:11 AM EST reply actions  

It wouldn't make sense to package Porcello in this deal

Even with him choosing Arb, he is still going to be very much under his free agent value.

by wilsonm24 on Jan 10, 2012 10:20 AM EST up reply actions  

I think it makes perfect sense

The Tigers get a better pitcher in Garza for the next two years (and will spend about 4-5M more per year for the quality). The Cubs get a lesser pitcher and save money, but one that they hope will develop into a good pitcher in the years when the Cubs are more competitive.

It would actually be a decent deal for both teams straight up. It aligns the productive (and expensive) years of each pitcher with the competitive years of each team. I wouldn’t give them much past Porcello, though.

The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981

by momotigers on Jan 10, 2012 10:34 AM EST up reply actions  

If I was the Tigers

I would much rather trade Turner in this type of deal than Porcello. Turner is still an unknown at the ML level, and his small appearances in the majors to this point haven’t shown that he is ready or given any indication that he will be any better than Procello is right now.

Porcello is better than Turner right now, so if the Tigers are making a move to improve the most for the next two years, keeping Porcello and moving Turner is more beneficial to them.

by wilsonm24 on Jan 10, 2012 10:43 AM EST up reply actions  

You're right, but there's a lot of opportunity cost involved here

Garza would cost about 18M more than Turner for the next two years. He’d cost about 10M more than Porcello. That’s a 8M difference that could be spent elsewhere. We also lose the opportunity to develop our own young, inexpensive pitcher with the #5 spot. The ability to put a kid in the #5 spot will hopefully benefit the team far beyond 2 years.

And do we really need the 5-man rotation that would come from a Turner trade? If you like our playoff chances today, remember that we don’t need to be 5-deep in the playoffs. If you don’t like our playoff chances, we should work on getting that 5th starter.

Here’s a projection by trading Turner
Verlander, Fister, Garza, Scherzer, Porcello. (Depth unknown, but no Turner)

This rotation looks spectacular on paper. It should cruise through the AL Central and the least effective guy heads to the bullpen in the playoffs.

Here’s a projection by trading Porcello:
Verlander, Fister, Garza, Scherzer, #5 (Choices include Turner, Oliver, Smyly…etc)

This rotation is rock-solid through 4, but lacks a proven quantity at #5. We may struggle every fifth day unless somebody takes charge of that spot. The season will probably feature a few less wins, but it’s a good rotation and is certainly still the best in our division. The future still looks bright and we are about 4-6M richer per season. In the playoffs, the kid at #5 heads to the bullpen.

I like the second scenario better – although having one of the best 1-5 rotations in baseball is tempting.

The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981

by momotigers on Jan 10, 2012 11:59 AM EST up reply actions  

At the same time you are developing Turner in the 5 spot

You could be developing Porcello in that same spot. Procello is far from a finished product.

Going along with your projected rotations
Verlander, Fister, Scherzer, Porcello, #5

That rotation is going to be just as capable of winning the central as your rotation. Except, we are even cheaper than with Garza and we still get to keep Turner. There is no real benefit to a Porcello/Garza trade except we get a minimal improvement from one starting pitching spot.

How much that improvement is I think is debatable. Garza had a career year which saw his hr/9 cut in half, his ground ball rate increase by over 5% from his career average, and his k/9 1.5 higher than his career numbers. While all of Porcello’s numbers have steadily (if not quite as quickly as some would hope) improved over his three years in the Majors.

There is also a decent chance that a move back to the AL will hurt Garza.

To me that slight improvement isn’t worth the additional cost. Trading Turner improves slots 3-5 in your rotation, trading Procello improves one slot.

by wilsonm24 on Jan 10, 2012 12:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Could DD have Garza replacing Porcello?

With Rick going to the financially devastated Mets in a David Wright salary dump. With Wright at 3b, and mostly repeat performances from the rest of the lineup, you can print the WS tickets. Who would I give up for Garza? That’s answered by who I’d trade for David Wright then….both short-term additions to win it all right now.

I got a sneakin suspicion that both Smyly and Crosby are going to be studs and Turner could be a dandy too. Billy Beane is said to be enthralled with Jacob but not enough to lessen his demands for Castellanos and others. There’s the rub. The more I think about it, the less I want to part with any of them but if I had to choose one it would be Turner with Strieby and another low-level prospect or two… take it or leave it.

by BLACK BART on Jan 10, 2012 10:41 AM EST reply actions  

Number 2 spot

just heard that if we get Garza, he will take the number 2 spot in the rotation. Lets hope we have better ofers from someplace else. I dont think garza is a good fit in our system.

by Rustyj517 on Jan 10, 2012 11:42 AM EST reply actions  

I'll always remember the 2011 off-season as "The winter of Garza."

Garza and the Tigers have broken up and gotten together again more times than Burton/Taylor.

You kids, go ahead and give it a Google.

Justin can now let the fungus grow back on his shower shoes.

by Singledigit on Jan 10, 2012 1:55 PM EST reply actions  

Just don't understand

I don’t understand why Turner keeps coming up in this trade talk for Garza. The Tigers have held onto him for so long and kept him off the trade table for so long, so why now? Why for a .500 pitcher? I understand that Turner is an unknown at the ML level, but looking at Garza’s career stats, I’m not impressed.

I say we stick with Turner and give him a shot at the fifth spot in the rotation during Spring Training. Even if he struggles next year, he can use it as a learning experience as he watches the top three pitchers from the bench.

Mine own mind is mine own church.

by Michael Litzner on Jan 10, 2012 2:34 PM EST reply actions  

Roy Oswalt is still out there

Pay him $12MM for this season, with another $12MM option with a $2MM team buyout.

Hang on to Turner.

Oswalt is trying to rebuild value, he’ll make 30 starts next year. He’ll answer the bell with a broken wing and a broken heart.

The upside is tremendous. The guy at his best could win 20. At his worst? Brad Penny … so what.

Justin can now let the fungus grow back on his shower shoes.

by Singledigit on Jan 10, 2012 3:31 PM EST reply actions  

i've heard this a lot

and agree with the logic. but some guys just don’t want to take their money. at different points i’ve read where both oswalt and kuroda seemed less than enthused about a possible tiger stint. just because it makes sense on our end doesn’t mean it makes sense on theirs.

by atlantatiger on Jan 10, 2012 5:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Garza is not the answer

Clearly, we need a left-hander for the 5th spot in the rotation or we will go 0-162.

/MLive’d

by Rob Rogacki on Jan 10, 2012 4:47 PM EST reply actions  

AND SIGN PRINCE FELDER !!!11!!111!!!!

"I'm a simple man. I like pretty, dark-haired women and breakfast food" - Ron Swanson

by rock n rye on Jan 10, 2012 5:32 PM EST via Android app up reply actions  

Well,

IF DD HAD SIGNED PUJOLS, THEN WE WOULDN’T NEED FIELDER

Detroit Tigers: 2011 AL Central Champs

by cabby4mvp on Jan 10, 2012 7:16 PM EST up reply actions  

BUT

PUJOLS PLAYS 3RD, WHICH IS CLOSE TO 2ND

Detroit Tigers: 2011 AL Central Champs

by cabby4mvp on Jan 10, 2012 10:13 PM EST up reply actions  

HOW DO WE KNOW? HAS HE TRIED IT?

BESIDES THE (cough) besides the defensive downgrade, what are the downsides?

by lesmanalim on Jan 10, 2012 10:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Do I really have to go through all of them?
  • Leyland batting Prince Fielder 8th
  • Leyland batting Prince Fielder 9th
  • Leyland batting Gerald Laird 2nd
  • Leyland batting Ryan Raburn 2nd
  • Bunting
  • Leyland still putting Brandon Inge at 3rd
  • Gene Lamont
  • Leyland getting stressed out from all of the lineup conundrums, finally snapping, and actually killing an umpire
  • Prince Fielder eating so much food that it causes a rift in the clubhouse, eventually leading to Gerald Laird and his family attacking Fielder, Cabrera, and the rest of the Venezuelans
  • Prince Fielder eating so much food that Mr. Illitch goes bankrupt
  • Gerald Laird in general
  • Someone lets Jason Verlander out of his cage and we see no more Cy Youngs
  • MLive troll invasion that rivals the zombie apocalypse in the TV show The Walking Dead
  • Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera participating in hot dog eating contests and realizing that, hey, they’re pretty good at this, which leads to them retiring from baseball and joining the competitive eating circuit
  • More Shannon Hogan

    But hey, we might score like a gazillion runs, so I’m all for it.
  • by Rob Rogacki on Jan 10, 2012 11:45 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

    BTW, some context

    Matt Garza, 2011
    FIP: 2.95
    xFIP: 3.19

    2010
    FIP: 4.42
    xFIP: 4.31

    2009
    FIP: 4.17
    xFIP: 4.14

    So this could be the Cubs trying to sell high. Alternatively, it’s possible that Garza’s made a hell of an adjustment. Granted, if we could put together a package of fringe top 100 prospects from the back end of our system, that might be appropriate value.

    "You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz

    "I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching

    Contributor, Bless You Boys

    by David Tokarz on Jan 10, 2012 6:57 PM EST reply actions  

    we covered some of this in an earlier post

    he did make an adjustment, and there’s a solid possibility he could repeat it. On the other hand there’s no guarantee of such.

    by Kurt Mensching on Jan 10, 2012 8:40 PM EST up reply actions  

    He made the best adjustment of all!

    2010 – pitched in the AL East
    2011 – pitched in the NL Central

    by Brion on Jan 11, 2012 2:26 PM EST up reply actions  

    With the Cards, Reds, and Milwaukee in it, the NL Central was no cakewalk for pitchers. I would guess it was tougher than the AL Central was.

    My degree is worthless

    by Godd Till on Jan 11, 2012 3:08 PM EST up reply actions  

    Why stop at just Garza?

    If we give up Turner for Garza, I say we include Cubs prospect Javier Baez in the deal too. He can play short, 3B, and 2B. I’d give Turner and plus only if we can work out another top prospect from the Cubs in.

    by rob1689 on Jan 10, 2012 8:01 PM EST reply actions  

    The cubs are rebuilding

    and trying to horde their prospects. It goes against their rebuilding to give up prospects in any trade at this point.

    by wilsonm24 on Jan 10, 2012 8:29 PM EST up reply actions  

    My $0.02, FWIW

    I was driving home from work today and the guy on the radio was talking about how they are close to re-signing Kerry Wood, but they also quoted Kerry as saying, basically “not so fast with this Matt Garza thing, it’s not so far along and no sure thing they even plan to trade him”.

    why yes, I'm slightly drunk at the moment

    by Mark in Chicago on Jan 11, 2012 8:46 PM EST reply actions  

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