FanPost

Thoughts on beating the Yankees

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Like many Tiger fans, I was rooting for the Orioles today. There’s a number of disconnected reasons for this. A Baltimore win would have given the Tigers home-field advantage and I’ve grown tired of watching the Yankees in the postseason. I also really enjoyed watching Earl Weaver’s Oriole teams as a kid and Buck Showalter kind of reminds me of Earl. And maybe the biggest reason was that the Tigers don’t match up very well against the Yankees.

With A-Rod getting the day off, the Yankee lineup for today’s game included 7 left-handed batters. This might seem less than optimal against a Baltimore right-hander with reverse splits that featured an OPS allowed that is more than 100 points higher against right-handed batters. But larger than those numbers in Joe Girardi’s mind was the capability of his left-handed bats and the geometry and wind patterns at the newest Yankee Stadium where his lefties have averaged a home run every 15.2 ABs this year. This preponderance of left-handed bats would also seem to play well against a Detroit rotation that has only right-handed arms and a Detroit bullpen that is not well configured to match up against left-handed batters.

This perception is supported by the numbers. The Yankees had a .343 wOBA and .461 slugging percentage this year against right-handed pitching both of which rank highest in the majors. When we isolate on left-handed Yankee batters against right-handed pitchers at the Stadium, a matchup that will likely be the most common of the series, the slugging percentage jumps up to .539. If you don’t spend your free time studying slugging percentages, .539 is 11 points higher than Prince Fielder slugged for the Tigers this season. The Tiger staff, while 3rd best in the American League with a .303 wOBA allowed to right-handed batters, is a much worse 8th best in the league with a .319 given up to lefties. The news gets even worse when we observe that each of the four Tiger pitchers expected to start in this series allowed a slugging percentage of at least .500 against the Yankees in 2012 over a not insignificant 166 combined plate appearances.

What’s the good news? The first piece of good news is that the efficacy of Justin Verlander’s mix of pitches is invariant to batter handedness with a .266 wOBA allowed to left-handed batters and a .265 wOBA allowed to right-handed batters. In English, this means that none of this nonsense matters when Verlander pitches. He’s going to get guys out and win the game. But you already knew that.

The good news that might actually be news is that Anibal Sanchez is about as close as you can get to a left-handed pitcher for a guy who throws with his right hand. Anibal’s changeup, curve, and slider, which constitute the majority of his pitches to left-handed batters, all graded out at well above average in the AL this year. His curveball, in fact, ranked as the best in the American League on a per pitch basis among starters with at least 70 IP in 2012. His .298 wOBA allowed to left-handed batters would rank 12th among 56 qualified AL starters. This checks in just behind lefty CC Sabathia who is known to be tough on left-handed batters.

If my math is correct, Sanchez is scheduled to start two games in New York. Even with his reverse splits, I suspect that Girardi will attack him with left-handed bats as he did against Hammel today. The Baltimore right-hander acquitted himself quite well by retiring the first 12 batters he faced before finally giving up 2 runs in 5 2/3 innings. I think Anibal has a good chance to succeed in this environment as well. The Yankees hit him hard back in early August, but he was still settling into his new surroundings. If you want some more numbers, Sanchez has allowed only .239/.269/.352 (94 PAs) for the Tigers against lefties on the road this year. You want an easy way to convince people that this is really good? Just tell them that it’s better than Verlander’s .252/.293/.393.



This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the <em>Bless You Boys</em> writing staff.

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