Why Prince Fielder's numbers won't be affected by Comerica Park

by InLeylandWeTrust on Feb 1, 2012 4:21 PM EST

A thought-provoking question arose when the Prince Fielder to Detroit signing went viral. Would Prince Fielder's numbers (more specifically, his power numbers) be affected by the spacious Comerica Park? In short, research suggests the answer would be no.

The most obvious way to begin to answer this question would be by comparing the dimensions of Comerica Park, and Prince's former stomping grounds, Miller Park. As you can see, Comerica Park 's right field dimensions are virtually identical to Miller's, with the difference coming in left field. Comerica's left field fences are further back than Miller Park's. However, field dimensions alone are not the only item that makes up a "hitter's" or "pitcher's" park. Greg Rybarczyk wrote a great article on what determines home run park factors. The article was written in 2007, but still holds true today. Using data collected from 2008-2011, ParkFactors.com created a power ranking of MLB diamonds in terms of offensive production. Miller Park comes in at #10, and is classified as a hitter's park. Comerica, meanwhile, is listed at #17 and is considered to be neutral.

Now that we have the dimensions in mind, the next question to be asked is, where does Prince generally hit the ball? And more specifically, where do his home runs land?

Fielder pulls the majority of his home runs to right field, based off of a scatter plot of his 2011 home runs.

Baseball Reference provides the raw data of Prince's hit location.

From this data, we can see that Fielder is a pull hitter, and does not go the opposite way very often; especially when it comes to where his homers land. This definitely benefits a left handed slugger such as Prince.

Prince Fielder came in 3rd place in the National League when it came to "No Doubt" home runs in 2011, based on a listing by Hit Tracker Online. As we all know, Fielder possesses some of the best raw power in the majors; as evidenced by his 486 foot bomb this past season, which was the longest home run hit since 2009.

31 of Prince's 38 home runs last season would have cleared the walls of Comerica Park. First of all, this data is assuming Fielder would be hitting in Comerica Park for each one of 162 games. Even if that were true, to be able to launch 31 bombs out of Comerica would be down-right impressive. Secondly, those seven landed in various parts of center field. With 420 feet of real estate in dead center, it is safe to assume Prince won't be targetting those areas. A number that should further put this to rest is that Comerica Park's right field extends 339 feet. Prince Fielder's shortest home run to right field in any park last season? 363 feet. Miguel Cabrera's power numbers haven't suffered since becoming a Tiger, and I don't expect Prince Fielder's to either.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bless You Boys writing staff.

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HOW FAR WILL IT FLY???!!

Gosh, I still can’t get that image of Robinson Cano (ah don’t ya know)’s Grand slam! Those TBS announcers were terrible.

In a Tiger fan's world, the Tigers go 162-0 and the White Sox go 0-162.

by Boeschlander on Feb 1, 2012 4:56 PM EST reply actions

Great post

Being able to hit mammoth home runs is the key. Those balls will go out anywhere.

Last year as a team we hit 169 homers. We have a good chance to get 200 this year.

C Avila/ G$ = 25
1B Prince = 40
2B Raburn/ Sant = 20
3B Miggy = 35
SS Peralta = 20
LF Young = 20
CF AJax = 10
RF Boesch = 20
DH ??? = 10

Total = 200
The 2006 Tigers had 203 Homers. So that’s the benchmark.

by Keith-Allen on Feb 1, 2012 9:53 PM EST reply actions

I was thinking to myself a couple days ago

How many other teams have at least 7 players capable of hitting 15 or more home runs (Avila, Fielder, Raburn, Cabrera, Peralta, Boesch, Delmon)?! Should be a fun season in the D for sure

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." -Rogers Hornsby

by InLeylandWeTrust on Feb 1, 2012 10:11 PM EST up reply actions

Too many Hrs

for Avila/Laird but think Boesch will hit more.

by jeremy j on Feb 2, 2012 12:15 PM EST up reply actions

I figure Laird will hit around 5-7, and Avila will hit anywhere from 16-20

But yeah, I think Boesch will hit more than 20 too, assuming he stays healthy

"Goaltending is a normal job, sure. How would you like it in your job if every time you made a small mistake, a red light went on over your desk and 15,000 people stood up and yelled at you."
-Jacques Plante

by DetroitSports on Feb 2, 2012 3:31 PM EST up reply actions

I thought I was low balling the 25 year old All-Star catcher.

His power numbers should be trending upwards until he reaches the end of his prime. Avila might be good for 20-35 Homers by himself for the next 10 years.

by Keith-Allen on Feb 2, 2012 6:10 PM EST up reply actions

I think 15-20 is a more reasonable expectation

Maybe those numbers would jump a bit if he doesn’t play 130+ games a year behind the plate.

Detroit4Lyfe

by Rob Rogacki on Feb 2, 2012 7:58 PM EST up reply actions

Hee hee hee

This is going to be interesting.

"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz

"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching

by David Tokarz on Feb 2, 2012 9:42 PM EST up reply actions

Prince will lose some HRs

He had a 27.9% HR/FB at home last year and a 15.9% on the road. For his career it’s 22.7% to 18.1%. If you like pictures, go to

www.katron.org/projects/baseball/hit-location/

and show hits from Miller Park to display on Comerica Park. Filter the batter to Prince and uncheck all but home runs on the right. Click expand park map to get a good look. The numbers don’t quite match reality as I count 27 blue spots and he only had 24 homeruns at home last year. But if we assume it’s a good approximation then he loses all of his Miller Park homeruns to left and center when he moves to Comerica. If you just want to see the final result check

i496.photobucket.com/albums/rr321/NatsDynasty/Studies/ComericaFielder.jpg

by GWilson on Feb 2, 2012 1:32 AM EST reply actions

Bad Site

When you go from Comerica Park to Comerica Park, it shows that 10 of Cabrera’s home runs were not home runs.

by b.hughes81 on Feb 3, 2012 6:01 AM EST up reply actions

but maybe not as many as it looks like

I tried a few experiments at katron.org and it looks like they may not have moved the left field fence in at Comerica. If you map hits from Comerica to display on Comerica and uncheck all but home runs a large number of the home runs to left fall in a fairly tight band that lies inside the yard in the diagram. At any rate, this looks like a fun tool but caution in interpretation is advised.

by GWilson on Feb 2, 2012 3:29 AM EST reply actions

Interesting link

But to be fair, Prince still hit 107 of his home runs on the road, compared to 123 at home for his career. He has also put up an .897 OPS on the road. I don’t think we’l see any drop off from the big fella.

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." -Rogers Hornsby

by InLeylandWeTrust on Feb 2, 2012 10:27 PM EST up reply actions