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Grading the Tigers: Starting Pitchers edition

Can't wait to get a full season of this in Detroit.

Somewhere back in, oh, October and November I guess, I started the yearly Grading The Tigers series. Sometime about two or three weeks later, I got tired of writing the series and never returned to it. (Whoops).

With pitchers and catchers reporting in nine days, I guess I have to get those grades finished up soon, huh? So I'm going to do it in accelerated form rather than the up close and personal look I used before.

Today we'll do the starting pitchers: Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello and (re-hashing) Brad Penny. Incompletes are issues to Phil Coke, Andy Oliver, Jacob Turner, Duane Below, Doug Fister and Charlie Furbush.

Star-divide

Justin Verlander: A+

I could go into all the stats and this and that and the other. But If you don't give the pitching triple crown winner, AL Cy Young and AL MVP the best possible grade, what is the point in grading?

Max Scherzer: B-

Scherzer was sent to the minors to fix a mechanical issue in 2010 and came back gangbusters. In 2011, he was never quite as bad as he was the prior year but was never as good either. He was second on the team in ERA and strikeouts, but you still came away feeling a bit disappointed. If 2011 proves to be just a hiccup and Scherzer rebounds, Detroit's rotation is going to look pretty solid in the upcoming year.

Rick Porcello: B-

I know a lot of people look at Porcello and they shake their heads about how he has failed to live up to the hype or whatever big dreams people pinned on him after a hot start in 2009. Or they see an ERA of 4.75 and they are definitely not happy. But if you look closer at the year's numbers and what you probably should expect, you might be surprised. For Tigers pitchers who were in Detroit the full season, he trailed just Verlander in quality start percentage. By game score, his best game was as good as Scherzer's, his average score and worst score just about the same. His peripherals mostly looked solid too. There's room for improvement. He has to find a way to go deeper into games, and hopefully find a consistent strikeout pitch. But he's not awful by any measure and could take a nice step forward in 2012.

Brad Penny: C-

Some people thought I gave him too high of a grade when I did this the initial time. And I guess there's some level of grading on a curve going on. But let's face it. It's not easy to find a starter who's going to give you nearly 200 innings of work. Penny was good enough to stick with the club all year and actually had some terrific games on occasion. He's far from good, but he was good enough to stick around. Most fifth starter-types can't say that.

Doug Fister: Inc

He's awesome. Had he started enough games in Detroit, he's obviously be an A. Great ERA, pitched with poise, everything we're looking for really. I wouldn't expect him to have a 1.79 ERA in 2012, but I mean, who actually expects that? No one, right? I also don't expect him to regress to the 4.40 figure that's been floated by some systems. He seems fine to me.

Phil Coke: Inc

Coke gets a bum rap, I think. And I've said it many times. He was actually a solid fifth starter at the time of his injury in late May, though there were already rumblings about moving him back to the bullpen. But during the month of May, he has his best strikeout to walk ratio and a 2.89 ERA.

Andy Oliver: Inc

He has the tools but he can't seem to keep his head straight when he's in the big leagues. Ultimately I still think he's a reliever if he ever does calm down and figure it out.

Jacob Turner: Inc

Those two starts were fun, right? Other than that whole "everyone gets to steal for free" thing. There's still work to be done, but it will be interesting to see how he looks in Spring Training and whether the Tigers decide to send him for one last year in the minors.

Duane Below: Inc

He's local.

Charlie Furbush: Inc

He's with Seattle

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I'd agree with all of these

Bill James projects Fister to have a 3.70 ERA. I’ll definitely take that.

Did we really just sign Prince Fielder? Holllllllllly sh*t.

by tigers22 on Feb 10, 2012 1:43 PM EST reply actions  

Nice grades

And I agree with all of them completely.

Porcello seems to me as though he is going to be one of those guys that ends up on another club (either trade or just allowed to leave eventually as a FA) and is going to be a very good #2. At which point we will hear all the people come out of the wood work and complain about him not doing that in Detroit and how Detroit coaches suck…blah blah blah. When really, because he doesn’t have that strikeout pitch he is so dependent on defense that his traditional stats are so much worse than what he is actually doing.

by wilsonm24 on Feb 10, 2012 1:53 PM EST reply actions  

Fister

2.85 max He’s very good!!

by dulaineharris on Feb 10, 2012 2:19 PM EST reply actions  

low 3s seems possible to me

wouldn’t want to go any lower, per se. I mean, I guess he could do it, but I wouldn’t expect it. Especially with detroit’s de-emphasis of defense.

by Kurt Mensching on Feb 10, 2012 3:40 PM EST up reply actions  

EARNED Run Average

If errors keep cropping up in the infield, that wouldn’t concern Fister’s ERA, unless you are only talking about balls that the guys can’t get to.

I see the glass as half full— our fielders will get there in time, but then they will boot them.

Jesus don't love me, no one's ever carried my load. I'm too young to feel this old. - Caleb Followill

by Nich on Feb 10, 2012 3:45 PM EST up reply actions  

I think the fear with Cabrera at third isn't him making errors

it’s him not getting to balls, period. Same with Prince at the other end and Peralta up the middle.

by Kurt Mensching on Feb 10, 2012 4:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Exactly

You don’t get charged with an error if you can’t get to it in the first place.

by HawkeyeEdward on Feb 10, 2012 5:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Agree

Big butts don’t move very fast. I’m not sure how fast our SS and 2B will be either. Batters hitting into those holes are going to give us fits all season. Guess we’ll just have to out hit other teams in those games.

by Parrothead Mike on Feb 12, 2012 12:30 PM EST up reply actions  

and if teams are going to stack their lineups with lefties

that should cut down on the number of balls hit to the hole on the left side of the infield. Just a theory. We’ll see how it plays out.

"King of Minutiae"

by Tigerdog1 on Feb 12, 2012 12:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Just the other day I noticed these grades were missing in the sidebar.

I’m a tad worried about Ground Ball Rick in 2012, but then again I’ve seen two pictures of Miguel in the off season and I think he’s been working on some things. Like dripping twenty pounds, which is going to help his playing third.

"Some guy told me I should walk with the Lord. I'd rather walk with the bases loaded" Ken Singleton

by NCDee on Feb 10, 2012 4:44 PM EST reply actions  

Starters

Verlander is Verlander. Will he be as good as last year? Who knows but he will still be very very good. If Fister can hold that era at 3 he will be very good. Sherzer and Porcello are the question marks for me. I believe if they keep the Tigers in the game and can put out 7 innings a start they will be ok. As far as a 5th starter goes who knows? I do think it should be a left hander to start. Below maybe. My fear is that they will bring Turner up to early. As far as Miggy at 3rd I am still ok with him at 3rd. I know he was the hitter in Fla. but he couldn’t have been that terrible at 3rd or they would have moved him to the outfield.

by LarryLive on Feb 10, 2012 5:37 PM EST reply actions  

What about best man winning in Spring Training?

If Turner is clearly the best option after 5 or 6 starts in Florida, would you still leave him down?

The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981

by momotigers on Feb 10, 2012 8:15 PM EST up reply actions  

6 innings

6 innings would be great, anything more would be a plus. bringing in dotel to pitch the 7th…so if we can get a solid 6 from the starters, tigers could win a 100 with their bats!

by paul wall 1962 on Feb 11, 2012 2:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Max has potential. trade Rick

.Max can be more consistence he can win 17 to 18 games and be a #2 guy. I am a fan of Porcello and really like his sinker. I don’t like his strikeout ratio. With our infield of Raburn, Cabrera and Fielder, I feel sorry for the groundball pitcher. We should trade him for an equivalent K pitcher

by Barry2 on Feb 10, 2012 6:00 PM EST reply actions  

Just Yesterday DD was talking about how our defense could easily be upgraded
“If we choose, we can play a very good defensive club,” Dombrowski said.

Brandon Inge can play third. Danny Worth, if he makes the club out of spring training, can play second base. Ramon Santiago can play shortstop. Don Kelly and Andy Dirks can play leftfield.

Coupled with catcher Alex Avila and centerfielder Austin Jackson, “That’s a very good defensive club,” Dombrowski said. “But I don’t think we’d win as many games as our offensive club would.”

Souce: Freep:Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski: Strong defensive lineup is an option

by Keith-Allen on Feb 10, 2012 6:18 PM EST up reply actions  

DD is a good poker player

I think was being positive about the Tigers D.

by Barry2 on Feb 11, 2012 8:20 AM EST up reply actions  

Porcello has the talent to develop a strikeout pitch.

The Tigers system first got their paws on him during a period where the team was about to emphasize defense (Adam Everett was the SS when Rick made his big league debut, etc.) so he was (rightly or wrongly – I think it was a colossal mistake) turned into a groundball pitcher in defiance of the scouting report that pegged him as a power arm. This is why he developed a sinker instead of a good breaking ball. He definitely has the talent to turn into a league average or better strikeout pitcher and I think we’ll be seeing it very soon. Remember, he’s just now going into his age 23 season. Most big-league bound pitchers are in AA or AAA right now.

by thepartybird on Feb 10, 2012 6:31 PM EST up reply actions  

It's not just having a strikeout pitch.

He needs to locate better up in zone so that he can get into more 2 strike counts 1st. Thus he needs to be more of a fly ball pitcher.

Here’s a list of 2 strike count PA’s vs K’s

                              
Rk PA SO
1 Justin Verlander 566 250
2 Max Scherzer 453 174
3 Rick Porcello 334 104
4 Brad Penny 322 74
5 Doug Fister 140 57
Team Total 3046 1115

null

by Keith-Allen on Feb 10, 2012 7:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Good stats

Also, Porcello didn’t show any K% ability in his (limited) minor league time.

The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981

by momotigers on Feb 10, 2012 8:18 PM EST up reply actions  

The Tiger rotation overall was very average with Verlander

the rest of the gang was below average, IMO. So, I think these grades are a notch high for all but JV.

Scherzer and Porcello were in the bottom half of the league in FIP, ranking 32nd and 27th, respectively of 42 qualified starters. Penny was dead last (as he was in ERA and WHIP).
They were very fortunate to have timely run support and a lock down back end of the pen to deliver pretty much 100% of the games where they handed over a lead in the seventh inning or later, so they were all able to rack up some nice win totals, including Penny.

They need to be better. The rotation was a weakness on the team in 2011 and it’s a weakness going forward in 2012, by comparison with other playoff clubs. I still think they are the key to the season.

I do think that Kid Rick gets a bum rap because of the way he was hyped when he first came up and the expectations set by a great rookie season. I think he’s not an ACE but is still potentially a solid No. 2, as is Max and Fister in a good season. There is a lot of talent in this rotation, but they’re still very young and developing. If they ever click together, they could be lethal.

"King of Minutiae"

by Tigerdog1 on Feb 10, 2012 9:45 PM EST reply actions  

The fact that we had 4 starters

amoung the 42 qualified starters is a very strong point in their favor, and should be factored into their ranking. If they aren’t pitching then no matter how good their stuff is it doesn’t mean squat.

by wilsonm24 on Feb 10, 2012 10:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Very good point

I believe Fister would qualify also if you added up his starts in DET and SEA. Getting him in the rotation could be the biggest addition since opening day’s roster last year, including Fielder. We’ll be fortunate to have all our guys remain that healthy for the 2012 season.

"King of Minutiae"

by Tigerdog1 on Feb 10, 2012 10:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Agree

Sherzer and Porcello were slightly below average and as such warranted C grades at best. But certainly all these guys on still on the upside of their career trajectories and the potential of having them meld simultaneously could indeed make the rotation quite lethal.

by Craig Unruh on Feb 10, 2012 10:09 PM EST up reply actions  

What's your idea of average?

To me, average in MLB is that half the league is better and the other half the league is worse than you. There are 30 teams and 150 starting rotation slots to be filled. Anything in the top 75 would at least be average for SP’s. Rick Porcello and Scherzer probably rank in top 50 -70, which should make them above average. But if you can name 75 better starting pitchers, then go right ahead and call them below average if you like.

by Keith-Allen on Feb 11, 2012 5:03 AM EST up reply actions  

I don't think comparing them to qualified is really the proper thing here

Players who are not good enough to get the innings to be qualified should be included in the pool you’re grading against. A lot of teams tried several fifth starters who were not good enough to stick around. The Tigers themselves tried several fifth starters who were not good enough. That Brad Penny managed to outlast them and keep collecting innings says something about Penny.

So in my world, a third starter isn’t a “C” for average, just like a fifth starter isn’t just above failing. You have to adjust everyone up.

by Kurt Mensching on Feb 10, 2012 10:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Gotta have a cutoff point somewhere.

I know what you’re saying, especially when it comes to comparing guys at the back end of the rotation. But you can’t go too far below “qualified” or the sample size gets smaller and smaller. You also get FIP averages both ahead of and behind Rick and Max as you lower the innings qualifier. At 140 IP, the pool goes from 42 to 52, but they still rank 28 and 32 on the list, and Penny is still dead last. 130 IP gives you 55 starters.

The averages are somewhat less valuable to the team as the innings are lowered, because some other guy has to make up those innings.

"King of Minutiae"

by Tigerdog1 on Feb 10, 2012 10:21 PM EST up reply actions  

How about comparing it to a pool of 70?

14 teams, 5 starters…the league, in theory, should have 70 SP. Porcello and Scherzer’s 32nd and 27th get them in the top half…C+ and B-. Penny’s 42nd puts him in D+ range. Basically, he passes for turning in all of his assignments and not dropping out.

The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981

by momotigers on Feb 11, 2012 12:11 AM EST up reply actions  

Select "starters" on fangraphs and you get a list of 69 AL pitchers

Kid Rick is 34th, Max 41st, and Penny 65th in FIP.
So, Rick is right at the median, Max a little below but probably still average, and Penny at the bottom of the heap. Plus, we need a fifth stater.

Just saying that we need some starting pitchers to step it up this year. There were things working for them that would point to a regression if all else were equal this coming season. Not that wins are the ultimate measure of a pitcher’s performance, but I’d gladly take a repeat of the W totals from the rotation this year, without question.

"King of Minutiae"

by Tigerdog1 on Feb 11, 2012 12:57 AM EST up reply actions  

Fister average?

Fister was stunning and pitched better than Verlander at times. I think we have two aces if they keep pitching like that. The other pitchers need to crank it up a few notches.

by lklein on Feb 12, 2012 9:08 AM EST up reply actions  

seen Thursday

JustinVerlander Justin Verlander
@BradPenny what time is it there? Tuesday?
9 Feb

by lesmanalim on Feb 10, 2012 11:24 PM EST reply actions  

Brad Penny had a few gems for sure. One that sticks out was in Tampa. The matchup was Brady Penny VS David Price, Miguel Cabrera was out on maternity leave and it was in the middle of like a 16 game streak. You could tell Leyland was raising the white flag and playing the B Team to give the veterans a much needed day off. Brad ended up throwing 7 shut out innings and the Tigers won 2-0. I think this game may have been the start of “the streak”

by j6takish on Feb 11, 2012 10:50 AM EST reply actions  

My memory sucks, it was 2-1…6.1 shutout innings….and Cabrera was in the lineup

by j6takish on Feb 11, 2012 10:59 AM EST up reply actions  

"Miguel Cabrera was out on maternity leave"

Well, that would explain the subsequent weight loss, but I think you mean paternity leave.

by rea on Feb 11, 2012 11:08 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm really, really, really excited

to see an entire season of Doug Fister in Detroit. I’d forgotten how crazy his stats were — yes, small sample size of 70 innings, but still… 1.79 ERA, 0.839 WHIP, 5 BB/57 K (!). For the whole season, though… 2.83 ERA, 1.063 WHIP, 37 BB/146 K, 11 HR in 216 IP. Me likey!

by frisbeepilot on Feb 11, 2012 11:28 AM EST reply actions  

Throw this stat in the mix for Fister

in his major league career, some 69 starts and 448.1 innings, Doug Fister has allowed six stolen bases. SIX! A six foot, eight inch right handed pitcher has allowed one stolen base every 75 innings! The mind boggles.

"King of Minutiae"

by Tigerdog1 on Feb 11, 2012 11:38 AM EST up reply actions  

Grades

Tiger starters ranked 6th in the AL in FIP. If we take out JV, the remaining starters as a group would have ranked 11th and ahead of the Red Sox. Only Verlander, Fister, and Coke contributed better than AL-average FIPs as starters. Unfortunately Coke was victimized by the second worst LOB% in MLB among the 158 starters who threw at least 70 innings.

by GWilson on Feb 11, 2012 2:01 PM EST reply actions  

If you take out Verlander, then you take out the best pitcher from every team.

What you also should do is update each team’s roster, especially the top 3 teams in FIP.

1st White Sox. Remove Mark Buerhle or Edwin Jackson.
2nd Oakland A’s. Remove Gio Gonzalez, and Trevor Cahill.
3rd Seattle Mariners. Remove Doug Fister and Michael Pineda.

The Tigers. Remove Brad Penny and add Doug Fister for a full-season.

Now Recompute.

by Keith-Allen on Feb 11, 2012 5:45 PM EST reply actions  

No Penny

I think that alone will improve the starting pitching. Brad’s heart just didn’t seem to be in it, and he just couln’t deliver.

Hope he does great in Japan.

by lklein on Feb 12, 2012 9:09 AM EST reply actions  

The Japanese are very into concensus and teamwork

You don’t tell your catcher to bug off over there, or you will be very unpopular.

by manic in Detroit on Feb 12, 2012 7:51 PM EST up reply actions  

He ate 200 innings

That’s a lot of innings not thrown by Schlereth or Perry.

I hated his speed, he didn’t always show sportsmanship, but he was a great pick up.

3 BF was one of my favorite Detroit Tigers seasons- right until the end.

by HighOPS on Feb 12, 2012 8:45 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions  

ok 181, still better than I thought

3 BF was one of my favorite Detroit Tigers seasons- right until the end.

by HighOPS on Feb 12, 2012 8:47 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions  

Exactly

As much as I couldn’t stand watching Penny pitch…he was a FIFTH STARTER.

If he were any good, he wouldn’t be a fifth starter. He did a perfectly acceptable job being what he was.

"Virtually all tactical ploys—the sacrifice bunt, the stolen base, the hit-and-run—operate on average to reduce run scoring." -- Eric Walker

by johnmoz on Feb 12, 2012 11:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Tired of this argument...

You can do your job, but do it poorly. Penny was dead last in ERA among qualified pitchers in the MLB. Acceptable would have been a sub-5.00 ERA.

by Gran-the-Man on Feb 13, 2012 9:41 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Health, another key factor

Keeping a healthy 5-man rotation will be important regardless of who is pitching well or not, especially if it’s our 1-3 starters. Being able to bring in another starter(s) for a few weeks to a month could be the key to the season if something happens to any of our first 5 starters. Of course this could give opportunity to Turner or, as in the past, spot starts for Coke, Below, or ?.

Here’s to a healthy Detroit Tigers in 2012!!!

by Parrothead Mike on Feb 12, 2012 12:42 PM EST reply actions  

Penny

was the worst starting pitcher in MLB last year, don’t see how he gets a C grade, should be a D-

by dereks1970 on Feb 12, 2012 5:47 PM EST reply actions  

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