Why Cabrera needs time at 3B...

by marc27 on Feb 20, 2012 6:00 PM EST

I was against the move of Cabrera to 3B the day I heard about the signing of Prince, even though I loved getting Prince Fielder. My initial reaction was, living here in Green Bay, WI, that I've seen lots of Prince Fielder at 1B, in addition to virtually all of Miguel in his time with Detroit, and I just know that Cabrera is a better first baseman than Prince is defensively. I'm not saying Cabrera is a gold glover there, but he is better than Fielder, and just as importantly is bigger (taller) than Prince is which is a more inviting target. However, given time and thought, some research, I believe giving this move a chance makes sense. Cabrera not only has played the position (3B) before, but Fielder has never left first base, and while he is average to below there, he isn't God awful either. Cabrera also has a third baseman't arm. Even before it was said he was losing, and has evidentally lost weight to accomadate this move, I started to come around to the idea. I'm fairly certain he will never be better than average with somewhat below average range there, but I also believe he can be passable, and combined with his outstanding offense, one of the top "all around" hitters in the game, it will offset any issues he has with the glove. He also has years of experience and shows decent foot work at first and handles ground balls very well. Yes, it's a bit different at 3B, but if he can become a similar version of what Peralta is at SS (little range, makes most all routine plays), then this is a win/win for everyone. I'm still not overly confident that he will be good there with the glove, it's simply that in his particular case, I don't think it will matter at all. He simply must be given time, and not just in spring training, to go through any rough spots he very well may have early on.....

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bless You Boys writing staff.

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Miggy at 3B, Santiago at 2B, Raburn in LF, and Delmon at DH

is better than

Inge at 3B, Raburn at 2B, Delmon in LF, and Miggy at DH

Both offensively and defensively. Assuming Miggy can play a passable 3B, having him there maximizes our team’s potential.

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." -Rogers Hornsby

by InLeylandWeTrust on Feb 20, 2012 10:10 PM EST reply actions

The best defense is a good offense

My question is: How many times are we going to take the opposing starting pitcher out of the game before the 5th inning? We don’t have any holes in our regular line-up. We’re just average at some spots, like at lead-off / CF, but we’ll be the absolute best in majors in almost half of the other spots.

Some people just don’t realize how great this team really is. We got everything, starting pitching, starting pitching depth, a strong back-end in the bullpen, amazing hitting though and through, some late game defensive specialists, and a manager that knows how to utilize an entire roster.

by Keith-Allen on Feb 21, 2012 11:40 AM EST reply actions

How much "time" is enough if the position change does not click?

I agree and think he will be OK (not great) at third BUT what if he still looks really bad at third by:
- the end of preseason?
- a couple of regular season games in?
- Sparky Anderson’s 40 games in?
- the All-Star break?
- the entire year?

Somebody in the organization has to have a time line for this “experiment” and a backup plan for if it does not work out. What is the “time” that the Tigers can give him to settle in at 3rd?

I’m leaning toward the Sparky Anderson theory myself and guessing that it won’t need to come to that. But, if we are 40 games in and there are still issues and we are not leading the division then the outcry is going to be really really loud. So much so that changes will be made to try and experiment with other positions before the all-star break comes up and a move will be needed at the trade dead line.

by Hungry Lion on Feb 21, 2012 2:58 PM EST reply actions

Great question - there are a lot of variables

I’m guessing you’re right about the 40-game mark being a point of evaluation. Even then, even if he’s fairly terrible defensively, it’s tough to decide if a move should be made.

Moving Cabrera to DH probably means having Delmon and/or Raburn in the field more often. Is saving runs at 3B worth giving them away in LF or at 2B? Assuming a more defensive minded player (read as Inge or Kelly) is inserted, is the resulting offensive suckitude worth the number of runs we might save?

Moving Cabrera to DH means more AB’s for Inge or Kelly and more defensive opportunities for Raburn or Young. I really can’t see a situation where putting Cabrera at DH, giving Inge/Kelly a bat and giving Young/Raburn a glove will better the team.

The only circumstance where I see Cabrera moving to DH with our current roster is if he’s struggling at 3B and it seems to affect his offense. If he’s having trouble adjusting AND hitting .258 in the middle of May, we have a problem to address.

The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981

by momotigers on Feb 21, 2012 3:28 PM EST up reply actions

Question for you

Is DH the only option for Cabrera if the 3rd base “experiment” does not work out?

by Hungry Lion on Feb 21, 2012 6:06 PM EST up reply actions

Yes

He’s not going back to LF

Detroit4Lyfe

by Rob Rogacki on Feb 21, 2012 8:13 PM EST up reply actions

Why not back to 1st?

Wouldn’t he be better defensively than Fielder?

by Hungry Lion on Feb 21, 2012 10:30 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

They're basically interchangeable

Detroit4Lyfe

by Rob Rogacki on Feb 21, 2012 10:59 PM EST up reply actions

I don't think left is an ABSOLUTE no either

It’s not like he’ll be blocking Young from getting a gold glove.

by Hungry Lion on Feb 21, 2012 10:37 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

It won't happen

Too much injury risk for him out there. He’s an infielder. He’ll either play there or DH.

Detroit4Lyfe

by Rob Rogacki on Feb 21, 2012 10:59 PM EST up reply actions

Still not totally convinced

There is not some type of back-up plan for a position to play, since they’ll need one for National League parks. But realizing clearly that there is not any other answer. Moving him off 3rd takes his, Fielder’s or Young’s bat out of the line-up in NL parks. This is an experiment that NEEDS to work or it all falls apart, wow!

by Hungry Lion on Feb 22, 2012 9:38 AM EST up reply actions

DH is Victor Martinez's spot

when he comes back.

I don’t see Cabrera or Fielder being moved there because the spot isn’t open.

by Keith-Allen on Feb 22, 2012 10:48 AM EST up reply actions

I'll believe it when it's 80%

If we get past Game 40 and Miguel has played 80% of innings at 3rd, okay I’ll maaaaaybe believe Cabrera is a long-term solution at 3B. If you put a gun to my head right now and ask what the lineup will look like by July it’s…

CF Jackson
RF Boesch
DH Cabrera
1B Fielder
C Avila
SS Peralta
LF Young/Dirks
2B Santiago/Raburn platoon
3B Inge/Kelly

www.mgoblog.com

by Misopogon on Feb 21, 2012 6:27 PM EST reply actions

3B is Cabrera's natural position

Fielding a ball at 3B really isn’t much different than it is at 1B. The main difference is throwing the ball accurately. We got a great infield coach, Rafeal Belliard, that helped improved Peralta’s defense by working on his footwork. So I’m quite confident that Cabrera can go back to 3b and make some minor improvements.

He might make 20-30 errors over a full season, but I think that’s acceptable if he’s making near 95% of all the routine plays.

by Keith-Allen on Feb 22, 2012 11:13 AM EST up reply actions

Is too!

3B is a very different position. The “hot corner” is called such because so many right-hander are pull hitters.

I’ve argued this with the saber crowd for awhile, that range is a bigger deal at 3B than it’s given credit for because the3rd baseman will position himself as far away from the bag as he needs to be to get to a liner down the line. For a guy with far below average range like Cabby this puts the third baseman several steps from where Inge might set up. UZR has a hard time deciding what’s a third baseman’s ball and what’s a shortstops, and ends up biased toward the shortstop, creating what I think is an inflated concept of the SS’s fielding value. A good 3B and a mediocre SS can cover the same ground as two average players. However if you put Cabby next to Peralta you’re opening a large gap in exactly the most likely spot for an infield drive to go.

We saw this in 2008 when Cabrera/Guillen were at 3rd. While you didn’t see a substantial dropoff in total value at 3rd base (used to bring back the Dean Palmer argument) watch what happened to the shortstops:

Renteria:
RngR | UZR-150 | WAR-Fld
2008: -1.5 | -0.7 | -0.8
Career: 1.1 | 0.3 | 3.6

Santiago:
RngR | UZR-150 | WAR-Fld
2008: -0.8 | -1.6 | -2.8
Career: 4.4 | 3.6 | 3.7

Renteria had an even worse year in 2007 when opposite Chipper Jones, whose positive sabermetric fielding value versus what the fans saw on the field with his limited range that year is the case study for fixing the UZR left-side-of-the-infield problem. For our purposes it tells us that a low-range third baseman makes a big difference in overall team fielding.

www.mgoblog.com

by Misopogon on Feb 22, 2012 12:17 PM EST up reply actions

"you’re opening a large gap in exactly the most likely spot for an infield drive to go."

If it was the most likely spot, then why doesn’t every team have someone playing there. In reality, that 5.5 hole is one least likely spots where a ball is hit.

Also, team defenses will do shifts according to the spray charts for each hitter. Tampa Bay is probably the best at aligning their defense. It’s not so much the defensive skill that’s making defenses better, it’s the initial positioning that’s changed. Every team has access to the same charts from Baseball Information Solutions and each team uses that information a little bit differently.

UZR and other zone based metrics are very unreliable. As I already pointed out, players doesn’t have the same initial positioning before each play. (They also don’t have the same pitchers or play on the same playing surface). UZR might get lucky sometimes and look accurate, but it’s really far from it.

by Keith-Allen on Feb 22, 2012 2:43 PM EST up reply actions