Baseball Prospectus publishes top Tiger prospect list
Kevin Goldstein has published his top Tiger prospects at Baseball Prospectus. The top 20 list and the report on Jacob Turner are free, but the other scouting reports are subscriber only. Goldstein sums up the Tiger system "System In 20 Words Or Less: The best team in the American League Central by a wide margin, but that certainly doesn't apply to the farm".
3 months ago
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Curiosity
Out of curiosity, I plotted the Top 10 of BA, BP, Sickels, Tigstown and Fangraphs (sorry to any snubs). The only consensus Top 10s were Turner (unanimous #1), Castellanos (unanimous #2), Crosby, Smyly and Oliver. A total of 16 players showed up on the five lists. I have no idea how this compares with other systems (seems high to me). Just thought it was kind of interesting. (Just not enough to pull be back into blogging. LOL)
No mention of Hernan Perez in any of the lists
yet they put him on the 40 man roster as a 20 year old. And left Gustavo Nunez exposed.
I’d like to know more about Perez and why the Tigers are so high on him.
Mark Anderson loves Danry Vasquez.
"King of Minutiae"
Yeah, he's very "scouty" that way
problem with that and rankings is that you get a bunch of “toolsy” players at the top that are completely unproven. As they move through the system, everything that happens that isn’t perfect knocks their rating down. Give me players that have some scars, some weaknesses that are showing improvement, and that are within eyeshot of being on a major league roster within a couple of years. I have to say, though, that I think Mark does a more thorough job of scouting the players in the Tiger organization than anyone else that puts out the information, that I know of. I just can’t get excited about “rankings”.
"King of Minutiae"
I hate rankings
Rankings are pointless.
by Kurt Mensching on Feb 24, 2012 4:43 PM EST up reply actions
As for Mark
He talks to a lot of people, and obviously sees players himself some times.
He needs to do a better job serving as a check against organization hype and optimism so we don’t get Iorg’d to death.
by Kurt Mensching on Feb 24, 2012 4:48 PM EST up reply actions
To the best of my recollection . . .
. . . guys like Granderson, Boesch, and Avila were not particularly highly ranked prospects.
Granderson and Avila were B-ish
I was high on Avila from the word go. Boesch I’m still skeptical of, but he made some fixes last year.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
by David Tokarz on Feb 24, 2012 5:46 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah
With Avila there was never any question he could hit, the question was how he would develop behind the plate.
What About JJ?
He is putting together a very nice career for himself as a solid starter. I don’t recall him ever be projected to be this good, though I could be wrong.
More JJ
Interesting stat.
Though last season he had appeared in 115 ML games, all as a starter. I don’t think anyone was projecting that from him by the time he was 25 years old.
well, there was certainly a lot of talk about him
he was well known to Tigers prospect watchers and ranked 49th by baseball america overall in 2008
by Kurt Mensching on Feb 25, 2012 6:02 PM EST up reply actions
And didn't Matt call that a big oversight?
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
by David Tokarz on Feb 26, 2012 3:14 AM EST up reply actions
I think the kids with all the 'tools' get shorted in trying to make MLB
Have no proof, don’t even know if this makes sense, but have been thinking it for a while. Or, ever since Wilken failed so miserably. And now that Avisail and Fields are not making heads turn, it further makes me wonder.
In order to make it to MLB you need to have one plus skill, and then make sure your other skills aren’t a negative.
If a kid has power, he’s coached on how to better it and exploit it. If a kid has speed, the same. If a kid has a great glove, he works on making contact at the plate. These are simplistic examples, but you get the idea.
The “5 tool players” are trying to do everything, and are coached to try’n do everything. Guys like Wilkin are never allowed to try and sacrifice, say … power, in order to make contact. They’re coached to have it all, and ultimatelly end up with nothing. It seems the guys who have one plus skill are the ones who make it. They improve their other skills, yes. But they continue to develop the one plus skill they have in order to make MLB.
The guys with the “5 tools” are not encouraged to develop one plus skill(at the expense of their other skills)in order to make a MLB roster.
The 5 tool guys end up being jacks of all trades, but masters of none. And, they flame out.
Just a thought.
If your parents didn't have any children, chances are you won't either
You have to distinguish between "tools" and "skills".
For a position player, they are graded on “THE” five tools, none of which is plate discipline, pitch recognition, or the ability to hit a curve ball. Those are essential things that supposedly can be developed as a player matures. But as we’ve seen, that’s not always the case. Their theory goes that a player has to have the “tools” because they really can’t be developed. I’d say that the ability to hit for power can somewhat be developed, but I get their point with respect to arm strength, speed, etc.
Wilkin never could hit a curve ball and that doomed him. In fact, he was blown away by even average breaking balls at the AA level from RHP’s. There comes a point where you just throw in the towel and figure they’re never going to be able to do it, and the Tigers reached that point with Maybin. Such is the risk in drafting a “toolsy” high school player with loads of “upside” that hasn’t even seen a college breaking ball.
I have nothing against rankings. They’re okay for a reference point and if, like me, you want to see what kind of trade bait we have in the cupboard. When players start getting close to the major leagues, I get more interested.
"King of Minutiae"
Maybin
I don’t think we can say the Tigers threw in the towel on Maybin since they traded him for Miggy. Now the Marlins? They pretty much threw in the towel and it looks like they’ll be made to look foolish for it.
by mattintoledo on Feb 25, 2012 4:26 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
“System In 20 Words Or Less: The best team in the American League Central by a wide margin, but that certainly doesn’t apply to the farm”.
Shouldn’t we be worried about this?
Not necessarily
If your owner is the kind of guy that does his shopping at the market, you don’t need to worry about what you grow on the farm. :)
"King of Minutiae"
Unless you're in a position to do something about it
What good does worrying do?
Wait til October...
The farm isn't that great but
We have no shortage of young talent. Our core for the future includes Verlander, Miggy, Fielder, Avila, Jackson, Boesch, Scherzer, Porcello, Fister, Turner, Castellanos, etc.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." -Rogers Hornsby
by InLeylandWeTrust on Feb 24, 2012 11:39 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, this is important
Plus, I think David Chadd knows the problem and will try to rebuild the system as much as possible.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
by David Tokarz on Feb 25, 2012 1:26 PM EST up reply actions
I've been thinking for a while now that DDs drafts and system are under-rated
There really aren’t that many FAs on the team. The talent has either come directly from the draft or has been acquired using drafted players.
The one glaring failure has been his continuing to draft relievers, and not having one single success with any of them. It’s odd, so many relievers drafted(even using many high picks in one draft for relievers in ‘08)and not a one has distinguished themselves. Not even a mediocre reliever. Trading relievers has yeilded a nice return, but even the traded ones haven’t performed. DDs inability to draft and/or develop a reliever or three has caused him to spend an inordinate amount of money on FAs for the bullpen. While Mr I isn’t frugal with his bucks, after all those draft picks on relievers it probably would have been good if the team didn’t have to spend $18MM on three relievers(Valverde, Benoit, Dotel.)
But … other than the bullpen, this team has been built mostly through the draft. Either directly, or choices used as chips in trades.
If your parents didn't have any children, chances are you won't either
by Singledigit on Feb 25, 2012 12:33 AM EST up reply actions
Not Really
Every team can find something to be worried about in every sport. For now, the mass majority of our talent is under the age of 28. As long as we can get some solid players via the draft or young talent through trades and free agency in the next 10 years, we should be ok. The minute we become a small market team again, we will have to worry about our farm. If we continue to spend like: New York, Boston, and Philadelphia..Those teams have proven that you can build a world championship team with very minimal farmed players.
On another note about this, if the likes of Porcello, Turner, Boesch, Dirks, and Jackson hadn’t progressed so quickly, we would be talking about having one of the best farm teams in the league. Its not our fault that our young players develop so quickly that we can’t fathem sticken them back in the minors again.
No
Part of the reason why our farm system is so thin is because we’ve promoted everyone and/or made trades to get us where we need to go.
It’s a huge if, but if everyone remains relatively healthy, we should be set for the next few years. Of course, V-Mart is already down and Prince Fielder is a once-in-a-lifetime sort of thing.
by metatron5369 on Feb 25, 2012 6:29 PM EST up reply actions
Technically, I believe no
However, they certainly consider age vs. level. Low-A should be about 20, High-A at 21, AA at 22 and the either AAA at 23 or the bigs. If you’re older than that at any level, it seems to hurt your stock, and if you’re 2+ years old for you level, you can almost forget making the list.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
MLB will not allow a club to sign a player before age 16
and the USA has child labor laws that prohibit employment of children.
"King of Minutiae"
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