Doug Fister is Still Due for a Regression to Mean

Seattle Mariners blogger Casey McLain examines Mister Fister's 2011 season and concludes that we should expect some regression going forward.

4 months ago Tracker83 8 comments 0 recs |

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he probably could have come up with the same conclusion in a lot less words!

Bless You Boys.com

by Kurt Mensching on Feb 3, 2012 1:33 PM EST reply actions

Fister took a step forward

He gots four pitches and lot of movement. This was great trade with Fister at minimum wage and you got a #3 guy with a potential being #2. I think he outpitch JV in the playoff and those two lineups Tigers face were no joke.

by Barry2 on Feb 3, 2012 6:03 PM EST reply actions

Maybe he's right, but . . .

. . . Fister is still a relatively young player, and young players can improve rather than regress to the mean.

by rea on Feb 3, 2012 7:21 PM EST reply actions

The Jones factor

What the story leaves out, of course, is the impact of working under the tutelage of pitching coach extraordinaire Jeff Jones. Breaking down last season, we get

Knapp 2011 regime: 6.85 K/9, 3.48 BB/9, 4.39 ERA, Tigers 45-40

Jones 2011 regime: 7.10 K/9, 2.63 BB/9, 3.67 ERA, Tigers 50-27

The Jones regime walk rate of 2.63 would have ranked best in the AL for the full 2011 season. The Knapp regime walk rate of 3.48 would have ranked worst in the AL.

by GWilson on Feb 4, 2012 2:13 PM EST reply actions

Not exactly a valid point or something you can claim as fact

Correlation does not equal causation.

by TartanElk on Feb 4, 2012 2:49 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

correlation does not imply causation

but it does get pitching coaches fired

There’s a story about some of the changes Jones made to Fister’s pitch selection at

detroit.tigers.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110919&content_id=24915934&vkey=news_det&c_id=det

by GWilson on Feb 4, 2012 3:32 PM EST up reply actions

Maybe he was lucky on line drives, but it's not outside the realm of possibility

that he has just developed a knack for keeping guys off balance and getting lots of weak ground balls. Throughout the second half he was commanding four pitches and his ability to miss barrels on both sides of the plate with his two seamer/cutter combo was impressive.

He’ll most likely regress some, no doubt, but going forward I think he’s a legitimate #3 on a good staff most years and a #2 the “lucky” years.

by BayesLaw on Feb 4, 2012 8:21 PM EST reply actions