PECOTA 2012: Detroit Tigers edition
by Kurt Mensching on Feb 9, 2012 9:01 AM EST
in Detroit Tigers News
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Some of you may know of PECOTA, the Baseball Prospectus projection system. Developed in 2002-03 by Nate Silver -- son of Dr. Brian Silver, who was my favorite professor at Michigan State at around that same time -- the system uses statistical modeling to create projections for the upcoming season.
(His father was also heavily involved in statistical modeling and elections. All I did in his class, however, was read Supreme Court rulings and debate things, which thankfully involved a lot less math. Full disclosure brag: I got a 4.0 in the class and a letter of recommendation from Dr. Silver.)
PECOTA had its up years and its down, sometimes coming back as the most successful system and sometimes not. Nate Silver has since left to model elections for FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times, leaving the system in new hands. Now, Colin Wyers runs the system after making a few tweaks to it. You can read more details at the Baseball Prospectus site.
While you should never trust any one projection system to consistently the most accurate, I still enjoy the PECOTA system. Maybe because it shows up like Christmas in February every year. Probably because of the list of comparable players given back based on stats, position and body type.
Obviously, giving you a full look at the PECOTA sheet for the Detroit Tigers isn't possible because Baseball Prospectus sells the information to subscribers only. But I thought I'd share a few of the fun ones.
Price Fielder -- Norm Cash, Todd Helton, Frank Thomas
A famous Tigers slugger and my favorite player of the 90s. Not the best comparables but not bad.
Max Scherzer -- Pedro Martinez, Jake Peavy
We'll take it.
Adam Wilk: Mark Buehrle
Wait, what?!
Justin Verlander -- Kevin Appier
Wait, what?! Part 2
Delmon Young -- Moises Alou, Carlos Lee
See, Detroit didn't need to trade for Lee after all!
Jose Valverde -- Kerry Wood
I was really expecting to see Al Alburquerque here, to be honest.
Magglio Ordonez -- Al Kaline
Sure Maggs isn't with Detroit any more, but it's nice to see Kaline come back as the best comparable
There's plenty more fun stuff on PECOTA, from Miguel Cabrera's three stolen bases to Brandon Inge's batting average. (Hint: they're about the same.) So if you subscribe, be sure to go download your copy now and check it out. If you don't subscribe, give Baseball Prospectus a look.
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wait, what?! and wait, what?! part 2
hmm… can’t say I see either of those being right
Did we really just sign Prince Fielder? Holllllllllly sh*t.
Picture caption is wrong!
I hate to tell you, but that is not Norm Cash (25)! It is Willie Horton (23), my favorite! The two do not look alike in the least!
haha, you're right
I should have picked up on a key difference or two.
by Kurt Mensching on Feb 9, 2012 12:01 PM EST up reply actions
Actually,
that is Norm playing one of his practical jokes.
Unrelated
but this is the first place I looked to post: I don’t see the list of FanPosts on the right sidebar anymore.. I don’t know if this is the same for everyone but I just noticed it and thought I’d bring it to your attention, Kurt
Chicks dig me, because I rarely wear underwear and when I do it's usually something unusual
I noticed it yesterday as well
Seemed the site was experiencing problems (all the SB sites were) and ever since they stopped having problems the Fanpost on the side have gone away. You can still get to them by clicking the tab at the top though.
Todd Helton and Frank Thomas are Hall of Famers
So I hope that Prince hits like them.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Maybe the HR King will be as well
Prince had Barry Bonds as one of his comparables last year. Given that the 2011 PECOTA also nailed Fielder’s CS and triples at one each, he may have a 73 HR season in his future. It’s interesting that Jason Thompson was one of Fielder’s comparables a couple of years earlier. For their age 22 seasons, JT hit .270/.347/.487 and PF hit .271/.347/.483.
You mean Jason "Rooftop" Thompson, right?
That’s what Ernie used to call him, although I think someone extorted him into doing it. Thompson did once put one on the roof in right in Tiger Stadium, but that kind of lame hyperbole was far below Ernie. And, I have to quibble with what David had to say…I’m not convinced that Helton is a Hall of Famer and I live in Colorado. Too much of his early production was in Coors Field, where they played Arena Baseball until they started freezing the baseballs. The Denver Post used to print the Rockies home-road stats until it became too embarassing. Todd is a nice player, John Olerud Lite would be the way I would describe him, but not a Hall of Fame player.
Yep
That JT. Here’s a WAR comparison of Helton and Walker. Both have pretty severe home/road splits over their seasons with Colorado.
Magg's comp
Maybe, probably similar to Kaline’s offense, but God, even a few years ago when Magg’s sliding catches were much more often, he could never ever compare to Kaline’s Defense and his strong and incredibly accurate throwing arm.
Tracewski on his first days with the Tigers
I was at shortstop one day and somebody hit a ball down the rightfield line. I had already conceded the guy a double. I was just standing there when I saw Al charge the ball and throw. Then it dawned on me what was happening. I started running toward second base, but it was too late. The ball went by me and down into the bullpen and a run scored on the play. It was my fault. I had never seen a right fielder make a play like that. Never. But they gave the error to Al. He actually got an error because he was so good. I felt terrible. I kept apologizing. But Al never said a word.
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