FanPost

Tuesday 4/24 Simulation Results (Mariners vs Tigers)

I ran Tuesday's Mariners vs Tigers game through my simulator 100K times. The simulator is pretty accurate for the most part, taking almost everything you can think of in to account. The only hard part about running the simulation the evening before the game is not knowing the exact lineups. Unless there is a major player like Prince Fielder or Miguel Cabrera sitting out it really doesn't matter too much though. Below is the box score output that it spit out along with the most likely 150 final scores. Feel free to take a swag at which final score on the list you think will happen. The simulator says the Tigers will win this game 65.51% of the time with on average with 8.24 total runs scoring. Las Vegas on the other hand says the Tigers will win 63.83% of the time with 8.2 runs scoring on average.

Hitters

Name AB Hits H1 H2 H3 HR RBI BB SO wOBA
Chone Figgins 4.313 1.111 0.782 0.216 0.015 0.099 0.343 0.285 0.979 0.303
Dustin Ackley 4.174 1.04 0.641 0.214 0.09 0.096 0.374 0.314 1.094 0.311
Ichiro Suzuki 4.234 1.247 1.019 0.146 0.031 0.05 0.383 0.182 0.592 0.312
Justin Smoak 4.002 0.926 0.565 0.204 0.006 0.151 0.487 0.312 1.089 0.299
Jesus Montero 3.982 1.001 0.522 0.267 0.006 0.207 0.544 0.216 1.18 0.326
Kyle Seager 3.903 0.987 0.645 0.239 0.011 0.092 0.334 0.204 0.888 0.297
Miguel Olivo 3.843 0.88 0.552 0.179 0.015 0.134 0.359 0.125 1.314 0.276
Michael Saunders 3.665 0.808 0.513 0.182 0.043 0.07 0.298 0.212 0.957 0.269
Brendan Ryan 3.561 0.836 0.585 0.181 0.026 0.044 0.272 0.172 0.855 0.268
Austin Jackson 4.303 1.21 0.826 0.221 0.08 0.084 0.378 0.339 1.063 0.334
Brennan Boesch 4.202 1.162 0.772 0.215 0.02 0.155 0.556 0.309 0.811 0.336
Miguel Cabrera 3.862 1.288 0.722 0.344 0.001 0.22 0.707 0.575 0.541 0.433
Prince Fielder 3.768 1.101 0.656 0.205 0.009 0.232 0.692 0.572 0.707 0.397
Delmon Young 4.02 1.192 0.788 0.248 0.01 0.146 0.566 0.213 0.616 0.347
Alex Avila 3.697 0.982 0.635 0.203 0.03 0.114 0.462 0.425 0.883 0.339
Jhonny Peralta 3.747 1.059 0.695 0.205 0.018 0.141 0.504 0.262 0.596 0.342
Brandon Inge 3.64 0.91 0.577 0.229 0.021 0.083 0.385 0.259 0.692 0.304
Ryan Raburn 3.579 0.999 0.579 0.266 0.026 0.127 0.473 0.216 0.717 0.342


Pitchers
Name IP SO BB Hits HR PC FIP
Jason Vargas 5.651 4.129 1.964 6.596 0.822 92.043 4.672
Brandon League 0.377 0.336 0.082 0.381 0.034 5.801 3.226
Tom Wilhelmsen 0.401 0.381 0.128 0.4 0.039 6.394 3.515
Steve Delabar 0.603 0.532 0.254 0.666 0.099 10.072 4.826
Lucas Leutge 0.291 0.223 0.154 0.339 0.048 5.025 5.396
Erasmo Ramirez 0.243 0.189 0.119 0.279 0.04 4.139 5.236
Charles Furbush 0.633 0.524 0.269 0.773 0.153 10.779 5.962
Hisashi Iwakuma 0.398 0.312 0.201 0.469 0.067 6.855 5.35
Max Scherzer 6.58 6.442 1.314 6.376 0.737 100.61 3.298
Jose Valverde 0.431 0.466 0.122 0.357 0.025 6.649 2.628
Joaquin Benoit 0.367 0.419 0.068 0.308 0.026 5.523 2.392
Octavio Dotel 0.564 0.657 0.132 0.485 0.051 8.693 2.755
Phil Coke 0.227 0.179 0.061 0.219 0.011 3.475 3.044
Collin Balester 0.133 0.134 0.04 0.126 0.017 2.104 3.721
Duane Below 0.552 0.366 0.166 0.587 0.041 8.608 3.745
Thad Weber 0.369 0.287 0.12 0.379 0.036 5.823 3.874


Top 150 Most Likely Final Scores
1 DET 3-2 &nbsp 51 SEA 7-4 &nbsp 101 SEA 9-1
2 DET 4-3 &nbsp 52 DET 9-1 &nbsp 102 DET 10-6
3 DET 2-1 &nbsp 53 SEA 7-5 &nbsp 103 SEA 9-7
4 DET 5-4 &nbsp 54 DET 9-2 &nbsp 104 SEA 8-0
5 DET 4-2 &nbsp 55 SEA 7-3 &nbsp 105 DET 12-4
6 DET 3-1 &nbsp 56 DET 9-3 &nbsp 106 SEA 10-4
7 SEA 3-2 &nbsp 57 DET 8-5 &nbsp 107 DET 10-9
8 SEA 4-3 &nbsp 58 SEA 6-1 &nbsp 108 SEA 10-3
9 SEA 2-1 &nbsp 59 DET 8-7 &nbsp 109 DET 13-1
10 DET 5-3 &nbsp 60 DET 8-0 &nbsp 110 DET 13-2
11 DET 4-1 &nbsp 61 SEA 4-0 &nbsp 111 DET 13-3
12 DET 5-2 &nbsp 62 SEA 7-2 &nbsp 112 DET 10-7
13 DET 6-5 &nbsp 63 DET 10-2 &nbsp 113 SEA 10-2
14 SEA 4-2 &nbsp 64 DET 9-4 &nbsp 114 DET 12-0
15 SEA 5-4 &nbsp 65 DET 8-6 &nbsp 115 DET 11-6
16 SEA 3-1 &nbsp 66 DET 10-3 &nbsp 116 SEA 9-8
17 DET 5-1 &nbsp 67 SEA 5-0 &nbsp 117 SEA 10-5
18 DET 1-0 &nbsp 68 DET 10-1 &nbsp 118 SEA 10-1
19 DET 6-2 &nbsp 69 SEA 8-5 &nbsp 119 DET 10-8
20 DET 6-3 &nbsp 70 DET 9-0 &nbsp 120 DET 13-4
21 DET 2-0 &nbsp 71 SEA 8-3 &nbsp 121 DET 12-5
22 DET 3-0 &nbsp 72 DET 10-4 &nbsp 122 SEA 10-6
23 DET 6-1 &nbsp 73 SEA 7-1 &nbsp 123 SEA 10-7
24 SEA 5-3 &nbsp 74 SEA 8-4 &nbsp 124 SEA 9-0
25 DET 6-4 &nbsp 75 DET 9-5 &nbsp 125 DET 13-0
26 DET 4-0 &nbsp 76 DET 11-2 &nbsp 126 SEA 10-8
27 SEA 5-2 &nbsp 77 SEA 8-6 &nbsp 127 DET 14-3
28 DET 7-2 &nbsp 78 SEA 6-0 &nbsp 128 SEA 11-5
29 SEA 4-1 &nbsp 79 DET 11-3 &nbsp 129 DET 11-7
30 DET 7-6 &nbsp 80 SEA 8-2 &nbsp 130 DET 12-6
31 DET 7-1 &nbsp 81 SEA 8-7 &nbsp 131 DET 13-5
32 DET 5-0 &nbsp 82 DET 9-6 &nbsp 132 SEA 11-3
33 DET 7-3 &nbsp 83 DET 9-8 &nbsp 133 DET 14-2
34 SEA 6-5 &nbsp 84 DET 11-1 &nbsp 134 SEA 11-2
35 SEA 6-3 &nbsp 85 DET 10-0 &nbsp 135 SEA 11-4
36 SEA 6-4 &nbsp 86 SEA 8-1 &nbsp 136 DET 14-1
37 DET 7-4 &nbsp 87 SEA 9-3 &nbsp 137 DET 11-8
38 DET 6-0 &nbsp 88 DET 11-4 &nbsp 138 SEA 10-9
39 SEA 1-0 &nbsp 89 DET 10-5 &nbsp 139 SEA 11-6
40 SEA 2-0 &nbsp 90 DET 12-2 &nbsp 140 DET 12-7
41 DET 8-2 &nbsp 91 SEA 9-4 &nbsp 141 DET 11-10
42 DET 7-5 &nbsp 92 SEA 9-6 &nbsp 142 SEA 11-1
43 DET 8-1 &nbsp 93 DET 12-3 &nbsp 143 DET 14-4
44 SEA 5-1 &nbsp 94 DET 9-7 &nbsp 144 SEA 11-7
45 SEA 6-2 &nbsp 95 DET 11-0 &nbsp 145 DET 13-6
46 SEA 3-0 &nbsp 96 SEA 9-5 &nbsp 146 SEA 12-4
47 DET 8-3 &nbsp 97 SEA 9-2 &nbsp 147 SEA 12-3
48 DET 7-0 &nbsp 98 SEA 7-0 &nbsp 148 DET 15-2
49 DET 8-4 &nbsp 99 DET 12-1 &nbsp 149 DET 15-3
50 SEA 7-6 &nbsp 100 DET 11-5 &nbsp 150 DET 15-1

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