FanPost

Does a trade even make sense?

There has been a lot of talk this year of the Tigers potentially making a few deals this month, with the hopes of bolstering their team and returning to the playoffs and then moving on to the World Series. This conversation often turns into who they should pursue and who is worth giving up in order to make a deal happen. Few of these conversations ever stop to ask whether or not a trade makes sense for the Tigers, for this year or beyond.

1. I think it is fair to say that the Tigers are not in first place because, on a player-by-player level, many of the Tigers have underperformed their expectations. We expected Avila to remain a steady hitter and a rock behind the plate, but he has been injured and it appears to have tanked his contributions early on. We expected Jhonny to be steadier with the bat, but he also struggled for much of the season.

Delmon Young is a fat, streaky disaster. We all know of the Cerebus of Crap: Brennan Boesch, Ryan Raburn, and Brandon Inge -- one of whom is gone and two of whom we can't replace with even average players right now. At various times, the back end of the bullpen has been either brilliant or Tums-inducing, and everyone in the rotation not named Verlander has been up and down more than a porn star.

What can we make of that? Well, it means that there are many holes in this team. In an ideal world where we could find reasonable trading partners and prospects to offer, we would upgrade RF, DH, 2B, one SP and perhaps one RP. That's 20 percent of the roster -- including a third of the lineup. That's what we'd need to turn into a solid contender for the World Series, and not just the easy playoff spot coming out of the Central. That doesn't even account for the hope that C and SS remain on the path to improvement (so far, so good) and that QB doesn't completely flame out (or at least not before Dirks can come back).

2. Given the number of holes to fill, acquiring one or two mediocre/rental players would probably not be enough to make a large difference. Let's say we acquire a rental 2B and LF. Are Marco Scutaro and David DeJesus really all that stand between this 2012 team and a Championship? That's unlikely. So why make the deals at all?

3. Because of the seller's market, whoever we acquire will cost us dearly in terms of prospects -- at least relative to the talent we bring in. A 3-star second baseman might cost us a 4-star player, plus several 3-star prospects, for example. While this doesn't matter for the 2012 team, it does matter for the 2013 team and beyond. Why? Because we're not the 2001 Yankees. We can't just buy whoever we want and fill holes with stars from other teams.

4. Prospects turning into valuable players is how the Tigers can build a long-term successful team, and give themselves the best chance to win the World Series every year. Granted, sometimes that means trading prospects for established players (Cabrera) and sometimes it means a drafted player turns into a key piece for your team (Verlander, Avila, Porcello). Notice the return on that trade: Cabrera. There are no Cabreras available this year.

5. With at least some sort of limit on payroll, and with $74 million tied up in 4 players for 2013, we are going to need some of the remaining 21 guys on our team to be relatively inexpensive.
That means either young players we've promoted, or old, terrible players hanging on for one last small paycheck. It also means that, if we want to keep our arbitration players (Max, Rick, Jackson, Coke, Fister), we need to leave some payroll room for their salaries to grow. We won't have that room if we go and get a C+ player with an A- salary like Justin Upton. Also, if we trade away our prospects, we end up with the latter. I do not want to see a 39-year-old in the outfield at Comerica, nor do I want to see an aging second baseman stinking up the joint again next year. If we can't trade for a multiyear solution, it makes little sense to make a deal.

6. How about a moment of realism about 2012. The Tigers are going to sink or swim this year with pretty much what we have. If Avila, Peralta, Fister, Rick, and Max can't keep their act together for the rest of the season, replacing Raburn and Boesch (and perhaps Delmon, depending who they'd acquire) isn't going to do much to help us win the World Series. Would a cheap rental in exchange for a nobody prospect be prudent? Perhaps, on the gamble that things break right for the aforementioned players. But any price higher than that is too dear.

7. And what about 2013 and beyond? There will clearly be some changes around Comerica in 2013. Delmon is likely gone, with VMART back in his DH role. Boesch could be a bench player here, a starter in Toledo, or gone. Raburn is likely to be DFA. Valverde won't be back for the $9mm he's making (but perhaps cheaper, though I bet we fill the slot internally). Turner's arrival, if successful, will make one of the starters expendable, along with some of the SP prospects we may have. And what do we do with Castellanos, if he's ready? Can he play the outfield? Is Andy Dirks for real, or Chris Shelton with a bad achilles? Is QB a myth or the real deal?

8. Look at the potential starters for next season, before any free agent additions.

1B: Fielder
2B: Santiago, unless we upgrade
3B: Cabrera
SS: Peralta, if we pick up the option
C: Avila
OF: Jackson for sure, Castellanos, if he's ready and can play LF. Dirks? QB?
DH: Vmart
SP: JV, Fister, Max, Rick, Turner, Smyly (Crosby, Oliver, etc)
RP: Al, Brayan, Dotel, Coke, Benoit, Below, (if he takes a pay cut and we want him, Valverde)

Throw in some scrub like Scutaro and we're losing some of that potential, cheap pitching depth. Does that help us next year when we need to replace Scutaro? Not really.

Or how about an outfielder? If he's a rental, we're screwed if QB/Dirks/Castellanos don't pan out/aren't ready. If he's not, we've got too many outfielders. The only logical trade is for a cost-controlled, long-term answer in the outfield. We aren't going to get that guy at value in July. We might get that guy, even for good prospects, in December.

9. The key: Castellanos. If he can continue to hit, he has tremendous value. Third basemen are at a premium right now. Unfortunately for him, we have an all-star at 3B and 1B -- the two slots he could have filled for us next year. Now, if he can hit and play the outfield, that's where he will be next year. That would be the ideal scenario.

If he cannot play outfield, we simply have to use him as a centerpiece in a trade for a young OF who is similarly cheap. He does no good to us as a backup third baseman, and he cannot play SS/2B and we have no room for another DH. Either way, this (plus the hope that one of QB/Dirks remains competent or we pick up a moderately priced FA next winter) is our longer-term solution in the OF.

10. The good news: We're set up for long-term success. This team has some dead weight to shed. I think it is safe to say that the Raburn/Boesch express has about come to an end. Delmon Young will soon be free to be a fat anti-semite for some other team. We have several potential starters in the OF (Dirks, QB, Castellanos) and half a bullpen's worth of young talent. We also have 7-8 good starting pitchers, a few of whom are young and could be traded for the right player if need be, while others are more experienced (Max, Rick) and could be moved for cost-control purposes. We have catching prospects who are blocked by Avila.

We have the best 3B in the game, the best SP in the game, the best DH in the game, and one of the best 1B in the game. We have one of the best CF and a tremendous C. That's a good foundation. Let's stick to the plan and not overpay for filler pieces for a shot at a division crown and a first-round loss. Let's not mortgage great prospects -- who can either be called up or used to acquire talented players this off-season -- for mediocre fill-ins or overpriced, overrated players like Upton. Let's go with what we have, perhaps pick up a small piece for a small price, and hope these 25 can pull it together. If not, as the Cubs say, there is always next year. And my friends, next year looks very, very good from here.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the <em>Bless You Boys</em> writing staff.