Ever since I got myself involved with pitching mechanics several years ago and the Tigers acquired Max Scherzer, I knew that he was always going to be somebody for me to analyze even when I thought I had nothing else to look at. Max has never been what anybody would ever call "mechanically sound." Throughout every step of my own learning I've pretty much used Justin Verlander as my template as being pretty darn good mechanically, and Max Scherzer as the opposite. I've analyzed them both into the ground, but today there is one thing to look at, and that is Max Scherzers change-up.

In terms of Pitch Values and PitchF/X values, Max Scherzers change-up is a lot worse than it was comparative to last season where he had his best change-up of his young MLB career. Those two seasons are where I'll draw my comparison from and generate my conclusions.

Above is all the most relevant data. I used full season data up through August 13th of each season so the data set is at least comparable in pitches throwing (count)

Constant between the seasons is the spin angle. Spin angle in itself is not an incredibly useful number for what we're looking at, but in what we're doing its useful in making sure the PItchF/X is identifying the pitch correctly. Which it is.

The other stuff is all different. Most notably is the difference in velocity between the two seasons. It can be believed from this difference alone that it is the soul cause of the problem that the "Vertical" is showing us, and that is that the ball is not staying down like it was.

By it's nature, the changeup is thrown from the same arm action as a fastball. It's the nature of the grip that causes the pitch to be off speed. So the interesting data says that Max is throwing the change with a higher spin rate, but the ball is not slowing down as much.

So what's the probable cause of the difference in velocity? The answer I believe based off the PitchF/X data is that Max is overthrowing the changeup. Simple but probably true. One other thing you can find in the rest of the data is that Max has added a couple mph's onto his main fastball. While it has made his fastball more effective, attempting to use that same arm action with the change up is rendering it less effective. It just appears that 200 extra RPM's on the spin rate isn't enough to overcome that velocity difference.

Normally I am never against a pitcher adding velocity. But in this case it is effecting Scherzer's changeup too much. He needs to either regain that effectiveness on the changeup, or pick his spots better when deciding to throw it.

2011 Data

2012 Data