FanPost

Re: What's the Tigers ideal batting lineup

This was my response to the last post (http://www.blessyouboys.com/2013/12/21/5232328/whats-the-tigers-ideal-batting-line-up), just figured I would post it as a new thread. Maybe more people would be able to see it and weigh in.

Vs. RHP

1. Austin Jackson (0.349 career OBP and 112 wRC+ vs. RHP)
2. Alex Avila (0.362 career OBP and 120 wRC+ vs. RHP
3. Miguel Cabrera (0.388 career OBP and 150 wRC+ vs. RHP)
4. Victor Martinez (0.368 career OBP and 120 wRC+ vs. RHP)
5. Torii Hunter (0.332 career OBP and 111 wRC+ vs. RHP)
6. Andy Dirks (0.333 career OBP and 104 wRC+ vs. RHP)
7. Ian Kinsler (0.337 career OBP and 102 wRC+ vs. RHP)
8. Nick Castellanos (0.328 OBP and 0.781 OPS vs. RHP in AAA in 2013)
9. Jose Iglesias (0.325 career OBP and 78 wRC+ vs. RHP)

This lineup would also keep the Righty/Lefty/Right/Lefty combo going through hitters 1-7. Although, I doubt that Ausmus will hit Avila/Cabrera/Martinez in the 2/3/4 spots due to speed and double play ability that was previously discussed. So you could also pencil Dirks in the 2 hole and Avila in the 6. I also foresee Don Kelly (0.295 career OBP and 78 wRC+ vs RHP) and Steve Lombardozzi (0.305 careerOBP and 79 wRC+ vs. RHP) getting occasional spot starts at 3B and SS, respectively. Castellanos and Iglesias will need occasional days off and Kelly and Lombardozzi are atrocious against LHP (28 and 58 wRC+, respectively)

vs. LHP
1. Rajai Davis (0.354 career OBP and 112 wRC+ vs. LHP)
2. Ian Kinsler (0.384 career OBP and 138 wRC+ vs. LHP)
3. Miguel Cabrera (0.435 career OBP and 160 wRC+ vs. LHP)
4. Victor Martinez (0.369 career OBP and 121 wRC+ vs. LHP)
5. Torii Hunter (0.358 career OBP and 126 wRC+ vs. LHP)
6. Nick Castellanos (0.392 OBP and 0.803 OPS vs. LHP in AAA in 2013)
7. Austin Jackson (0.332 career OBP and 95 wRC+ vs. LHP)
8. Jose Iglesias (0.323 career OBP and 99 wRC+ vs. LHP)
9. Bryan Holaday (0.342 OBP and 0.777 OPS vs. LHP in AAA in 2013)

You could argue either way that Davis or Kinsler should lead off in this situation. Since Kinsler has more power, I would prefer to bat him in a position to drive in the most amount of runs. In addition, Alex Avila should rarely (if ever) start against LHP (0.306 career OBP and 74 wRC+ vs. LHP with 0.227 OBP and 25 wRC+ last year)

Historically, these are the amount of plate appearances seen over the course of the season for each spot in the order (as per Bill James at http://www.billjamesonline.com)

1st: 767 PA, 259 with men on base
2nd: 749 PA, 323 with men on base
3rd: 732 PA, 351 with men on base
4th: 714 PA, 363 with men on base
5th: 697 PA, 333 with men on base
6th: 680 PA, 314 with men on base
7th: 661 PA, 304 with men on base
8th: 643 PA, 293 with men on base
9th: 625 PA, 288 with men on base

We can prorate these to determine an average OBP and wRC+ for each lineup. For mathematical purposes, we have to use wRC+ projections for both Castellanos and Holaday. Last year, Castellanos had a 3% higher OPS against LHP. He is projected to have an overall 95 wRC+ this year. So we will estimate that this will be an OBP of 0.304 and 92 wRC+ vs. RHP and an OBP of 0.322 and wRC+ of 98 vs. LHP. Holaday was 16% better against LHP. He is projected to have an OBP of 0.289 and wRC+ of 72 for the season and we can estimate that he will have an OBP of 0.335 and wRC+ of 83 against LHP.

Projected lineup vs. RHP: 0.345 OBP, 111 wRC+
Projected lineup vs. LHP: 0.359 OBP, 116 wRC+
League Average (AL): 0.320 OBP, 97 wRC+

Given that 29% of all plate apperances in MLB were against LHP last year, the total weighted results of the above lineups would be:

Projected Lineup vs. all pitching: 0.349 OBP, 112 wRC+.

For a reference point, last year the Red Sox led the league in OBP at 0.349 and wRC+ at 115. The Tigers were second at 0.346 and 113.

So barring injury, seems like losing Prince Fielder, Infante, and Peralta will have a minimal impact on the offensive capabilities of this team while upgrading the team tremendously with regard to defense and speed.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the <em>Bless You Boys</em> writing staff.

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