FanPost

Finding the value in free agency

Ah, free agency. So much potential, so many dollars, so much need. Sure, there's big names like Price and Greinke, little names like Young, names we can't pronounce like Samardzija, and names we'd rather not remember even existed, like *cough* Alfredo Simon *cough*.

But...where's the value? Who might be a bargain? Who might not cost the earth but be almost as effective?

I decided I'd use a purely arbitrary and numerical based calculation to see if I could find out, and this article is what resulted.

I think we can all agree the Tigers three main needs are starting pitching, relief pitching and left field, maybe not in that order, but I think the consensus would be that those are the areas in need of most focus, so we'll go through them in turn.

How did I do this? Reasonably simply actually.

I looked at the fWAR and salary for last season, along with the projected values for the same two numbers for 2016. Then I did some sums and used a weighted scoring system to decipher the best "value", and I put it in quotation marks because I'm fully aware that value is a very subjective term and means different things to different people. What these lists are NOT trying be is exhaustive in any way, or to say that Player A has a better value score than Player B so therefore we must sign one over the other...no. What it is, is a purely statistical way of getting a little idea, no more than that, of who has been somewhat valuable or not over this two year period.

The Value Score is simply a reverse points order scoring system for both 2015 and '16. For example if someone put up between 0-0.9m dollars per WAR, they got 10 points, for 1-1.9m it was 9 points, for 2-2.9m it would be 8 points and so on.

The 2016 projected WAR comes from our friends at Steamer, while the 2016 projected salaries comes per the FanGraphs crowdsource estimates.

Let's begin by looking at starting pitching:

(Salary figures in millions)

Player 2015 WAR Salary $ per WAR 2016 WAR Salary $ per WAR Value Score
John Lackey 3.6 0.5 0.14 2.6 15 5.77 15
Wei-Yin Chen 2.8 4.75 1.70 2.6 13 5 14
J.A. Happ 3.3 6.7 2.03 1.9 11 5.79 13
Hisashi Iwakuma 1.8 7 3.89 3.3 14 4.24 13
David Price 6.4 19.75 3.09 5.3 28 5.28 12
Jeff Samardzija 2.7 9.8 3.63 2.7 16 5.93 12
Johnny Cueto 4.1 10 2.44 3 22 7.33 11
Bartolo Colon 2.5 11 4.40 1.7 10 5.88 11
Mike Pelfrey 2 5.5 2.75 1.1 8 7.27 11
Zack Greinke 5.9 25 4.24 4 26 6.50 10
Scott Kazmir 2.4 13 5.42 2.5 14 5.60 10
Brandon Morrow 0.5 2.5 5 0.8 4 5 10
Jordan Zimmermann 3 16.50 5.50 2.8 21 7.50 8
Mike Leake 1.7 9.77 5.75 1.9 14 7.37 8
Mat Latos 1.5 9.4 6.27 1.8 11 6.11 8
Yovani Gallardo 2.5 14 5.60 1.7 14 8.24 7
Alfredo Simon 1 5.55 5.55 0.8 7 8.75 7
Bud Norris 0 8.8 n/a 1.5 6 4 6
Mark Buehrle 2.1 20 9.52 1.6 10 6.25 5
Ian Kennedy 0.8 9.85 12.31 2.1 12 5.71 4
Chris Young 0.9 0.67 0.74 -0.1 6 -60 Really
Doug Fister 0.2 11.4 57 1.4 10 7.14 Just
Tim Lincecum 0.3 18 60 0.7 6 8.57 Very
Jeremy Guthrie -0.9 9 -10 0.4 4 10 LOL

Now, of course there is a massive outlier here in John Lackey, because as you may or may not know he had to pitch for the league minimum this year due to some contractual clauses he hit regarding time on the disabled list, so while he may be at the top of this table, it's a little false as he would normally have been on at least a $10 million contract in 2015.

Leaving Lackey aside, it would appear that Wei-Yin Chen offers the most value when you consider the 2015 and 2016 salaries and performance, and I think most of us would be quite happy to see him in a 2016 Tigers rotation. Other unsurprising names to also offer good value are Iwakuma and, despite the hefty salary, David Price. Surprisingly one of the top names, in fact second (minus Lackey) is J.A. Happ, who had a nice under-the-radar year just gone and isn't projected to be too expensive next year. I was a little taken aback to see Zimmermann as low as that but he's still someone I'd love to see Avila go after. But after that, well let's just say some of the names at the bottom of that list are quite scary in terms of what they have been paid for so little production and what they project to still be paid going forward.

There are some free agents not on this list because there are no crowdsourced projections for them, but if you saw the names you would realise why, none of them have more than the remotest chance of being on the Tigers radar in any case.

So, let's move on to the next need, relief pitching.

There are just over 50 free agent relievers on the market, however only 11 of these were deemed worthy enough for a projection, so it's that list we'll concentrate on here.

Player 2015 WAR Salary $ per WAR 2016 WAR Salary $ per WAR Value Score
Mark Lowe 1.2 0.2 0.17 0.5 4 8 12
Darren O'Day 1.8 4.25 2.36 0.7 7 10 8
Joe Blanton 1.1 1 0.91 0.3 4 13.33 8
Ryan Madson 0.9 0.85 0.94 0.4 5 12.50 8
Antonio Bastardo 0.6 3.1 5.17 0 4 n/a 5
Tony Sipp 1 2.4 2.40 0.2 5 25 -7
Joakim Soria 0.4 7 17.5 0.6 7 11.67 -8
Shawn Kelley 1 2.83 2.83 0.1 4 40 -22
Tommy Hunter 0.3 4.65 15.5 0.1 5 50 -45
Jonathan Broxton 0.3 9 30 0.1 4 40 -50
Trevor Cahill 0.1 12 120 0.2 5 25 -125

Well, I'm not quite sure what to make of that, other than the fact Steamer seems very down on any of these pitchers repeating anything like their 2015 production. In terms of projected value I was surprised to see Soria so low but again, much of that is due to his likely high cost, and even though the Tigers now have K-Rod, I wouldn't be too upset to see Soria brought back, as unlikely as it now is.

It was no surprise to see the likes of Lowe, O'Day, Madson, and Bastardo up near the top, but Joe Blanton at third might raise a few eyebrows. Though really it shouldn't considering his dominant run since Pittsburgh put him in the bullpen.

Truthfully I don't see this analysis as being anywhere near as relevant to relievers as it can be to starters or position players due to the nature of WAR being a counting stat, so while it's still interesting, I think we'll move on to the last remaining position of need, left field, and look for a little more meat on the bones there.

Looking at left field gives us another a pool of crowd sourced projections to look at, once more those not receiving one are players you really probably wouldn't want to see as an everyday left field, however it does miss some interesting platoon candidates out.

Player 2015 WAR Salary $ per WAR 2016 WAR Salary $ per WAR Value Score
Ben Zobrist 2.1 7.5 3.57 3.1 14 4.52 13
Yoenis Cespedes 6.7 10.5 1.57 3.1 22 7.10 12
Alex Gordon 2.8 12.5 4.46 3.5 18 5.14 11
Justin Upton 3.6 14.5 4.03 3 20 6.67 10
Chris Young 1.2 2.5 2.08 0.7 6 8.57 10
Rajai Davis 1.8 5 2.78 0 6 n/a 8
Alejandro De Aza 1.2 5 4.17 0.6 6 10 6
Steve Pearce 0.3 3.7 12.33 1.2 6 5 3
Will Venable 1.2 4.25 3.54 0.4 6 15 2
Marlon Byrd 1 8 8 0 7 n/a 2
Kelly Johnson 0.3 1.5 5 0.2 3 15 0
Gerardo Parra 0.4 6.24 15.6 1 8 8 -3
Shane Victorino 0 13 n/a 0.5 7 14 -4
David Murphy 0.3 6 20 0.1 4 40 -40
Matt Joyce -1.4 4.75 -3.39 0.5 4 8 Don't Bother

No real surprises up at the top in this one, and looking at these numbers it's not hard to see why a "mere" super utility player such as Ben Zobrist is so in demand even at age 35. Despite projecting to big free agent deals, Cespedes, Gordon and Upton still fare well in the value they have given and seem likely to give so while these guys will no doubt be expensive, one would have to think, for the front half/two thirds of their contracts at least, they'll absolutely be worth it.

So what has this exercise told us? Hard to nail that down in a sentence or two specifically, and there are some big caveats in projecting value based solely on these numbers I fully accept, but it does maybe help give some semblance of an idea as to who has been worth the money they have been paid and who might continue to be worth the money they are expected to get in the future.

Is it foolproof? God no. Does it mean the Tigers should focus on only those at the top of these lists? Absolutely not. What it is, is just yet another attempted way at assessing performance and value with many pitfalls, but it's intriguing all the same and hopefully presents us all another angle with which to look at this years free agent fun.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the <em>Bless You Boys</em> writing staff.