FanPost

Thin slicing the Tigers

Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

In addition to baseball, reading is one of my favorite hobbies. Currently, I'm reading a Blink by Malcolm Gladwell. It tells the story of a psychologist who used a method called "thin slicing" to analyze 15-minute conversations between newlyweds and used his observations to predict whether or not the couple's marriage would last with 95 percent accuracy. He did this by looking at subtle patterns in their conversations. (It's an interesting book so far, and it's available for $0.01 on Amazon.com).

Naturally I decided to "thin slice" our Detroit Tigers. By taking a small sample and looking at the subtle patterns, I think we can get a pretty good idea of what to expect in the second half.

First, I had to decide which part of the season would be the best to take the slice from. Since a baseball season has lot of ebbs and flow, we need a stretch that could represent the season as a whole. So not the 6-0 start (as fun as that was), and not the eight-game losing streak (thankfully). I feel that as of the time of writing (July 12), the past three series can be a good representative of the series as a whole.

This stretch best represents the team going forward because the roster is the most similar to what it will be down the stretch (barring any unforeseen trades or more tragic injuries). They've also played a combination of a division rival, one team chasing a playoff spot, and the Mariners, who have failed to live up to expectations this season. With a 5-5 record during the 10-game stretch, which equals their winning percentage on the season, we can also be sure this isn't just an outlier of really good or really bad baseball.

The first, and most obvious pattern from the last 10 games, is the results in games pitched by David Price and Anibal Sanchez compared to Justin Verlander, Alfredo Simon, Kyle Ryan, and Shane Greene. They are 4-0 in games pitched by Price and Sanchez. 1-5 by the other four. WIth Greene recently being called up to replace Ryan, there are four consistencies in the rotation, and one wildcard. Price and Sanchez have been the good kind of consistent, only allowing more than two earned runs only once. Simon and Ryan/Greene have been the extremely bad kind of consistent, never allowing less than five earned runs. Verlander is the wildcard.

The pattern we've seen from Verlander leads me to believe he will have a good second half. The Tigers are 0-2 in his starts, but Justin has shown signs of a return to form. July 5 against Toronto, Verlander pitched four nnings of one-run ball giving the Tigers a good chance to win the game, until the fifth inning when he blew up. According to Fangraphs, there was a 35 percent drop in win expectancy during that one inning.


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In Verlander's next game against Minnesota, we saw vintage JV for 7 2/3 innings, only allowing five hits and one run, posting the highest Win Probability Added of any Tiger at .224. As you can see in his ball/strike chart (courtesy of Fangraphs), Justin did an excellent job staying around the corners and avoiding the heart of the plate.

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This suggests that Verlander is starting to find his groove after making just five starts since returning from injury. His overall ERA in the last 10 games is 5.68, but if we "Porcello out" his fifth inning against Toronto, it would be 1.62. That number would obviously be unsustainable, but down the stretch, if he stays closer to the numbers he put up in 11 2/3 of his 12 2/3 innings, that will give the pitching staff three starters who provide a great chance to win the game.

Despite Verlander's great outing against Minnesota, the final was a Tigers loss because of the bullpen. The team may be given a decent chance to win in three out of five days if Verlander pitches the way his recent pattern suggests, but they will need the bullpen to capitalize on those chances. Recently, Alex Wilson, Bruce Rondon and Joakim Soria have been and will continue to be relied on in close games.

Over the last 10 games, those three relievers have a combined ERA of 9.00. That number may be affected by an outlier, since all seven of Rondon's and Soria's combined earned runs were in the aforementioned game against Minnesota. The alarming pattern is that both have had very bad xFIP numbers in two of their four appearances since July 3rd. Soria posted a 6.46 xFIP against Seattle on July 8, and 4.46 against Minnesota on July 9. Rondon posted a 16.25 xFIP on July 3 and 4.07 on July 7. Neither of them allowed an earned run in either of those appearances, but numbers caught up when they combined to allow seven runs to Minnesota. Wilson was a key part in a decent Tigers bullpen early in the season, but he has also been shaky in recent appearances. He has pitched in four games since July 3, posting a 6.75 ERA and a 5.16 xFIP.

Each of those three three pitchers has made four appearances in the last 10 games, and each has had two good outings based on xFIP and two very bad ones. If this pattern continues, there will be a 50/50 chance the most critical pieces of the bullpen are good or absolutely dreadful.

The Miggy-less offense has surprisingly been the brightest part of the team during our thin slice of the season. The Tigers have scored five runs or more in nine of the past 10 games. Several key players in the lineup have heated up in Miggy's absence. Ian Kinsler and Nick Castellanos in particular are two X-factors who seem to have turned a corner lately. Each player has taken several percentage points off of their K%. Kinsler's has dropped from 13.6 percent on the season to 9.5 percent in our 10 game slice. Castellanos has seen his K% drop from 24.1 percent to 14.6 percent. The decline in K% suggests that each player has been seeing the ball much better which has directly contributed to the high scoring offense in recent weeks.

Improvement from Kinsler and Castellanos, along with Yoenis Cespedes, J.D. Martinez, and Victor Martinez performing close to their career numbers should help keep the offense afloat without Miguel Cabrera.

When I started this post, I was hoping to find something encouraging between the lines. Analyzing our thin slice reveals an offense that has turned a corner, a crapshoot for a bullpen and a rotation lacking depth. What I found was that the offense should hold up without Miguel Cabrera, but Verlander needs to have a strong second half, and they're still an arm or two away from success.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the <em>Bless You Boys</em> writing staff.