FanPost

TigerDoc616’s Offseason Plan

Count me among those who are not totally convinced exactly what Al Avila's comments really mean. We have several things we do not know, chief among them is what the new CBA holds for luxury tax level and whether or not any penalties will be reset or not. Last CBA basically whipped the slate clean, meaning in the first year, teams only paid 15% tax even if they exceeded the tax threshold the previous year. So those rules are critical to know how the Tigers will approach the off season. The other critical issue is what Mr Ilitch has instructed Avila to do, or has he handed the team to his son, Chris.

So, going to operate under the following assumptions. 1) Tigers have to lower payroll to at or below the tax threshold. 2) Want the team to be reasonably competitive. The rules of the game state this, plus what fun would this be if we held a fire sale? 3) The luxury tax threshold will increase to $200M for 2017. That may be a reach, but there is almost no way this will not go up for 2017, just don't know just how much, but $11M seems conservative. 4) Player costs are included, and we will assume this to be $12M, and thus the tax threshold for this game will be $188M. 5) Going to use Baseball-reference.com for payroll data, like them better than Cott's. They have the Tigers pegged at $220.9M picking up all options and filling out the full roster. That means we need to cut $32M from the payroll to meet the $188M level.

Arbitration-eligible players

Here, we keep all of these guys. All reasonably affordable, all controllable. No reason to non-tender any of them. These increases on these players is included in the $220.9M 2017 payroll as estimated by Baseball-reference.com

Contract options (pick up or buy out)

Here, I let Cameron Maybin go for that $1M buyout. As much as I like Maybin, he was oft injured and not worth close to $9M given that. Plus, have to cut somewhere. Seems like a good place to start. Could pick up that option and look to move him elsewhere, but risky given the injury history and $9M salary. K-Rod is a bargain at this level, and we need a good bullpen if we are going to contend. Plus, he has been a positive influence on the younger relievers, especially Rondon. And with Jimenez potentially ready for the big leagues, he could be a big help in his development. Potential savings of $8M

Pending free agents (re-sign or let go)

Other than possibly signing McGehee to a minor league deal, I would let all of these guys go. These contracts are not included in the $220.9M figure as they are free agents

Free agents/Trades

HAVE to get rid of dead weight here, and we know three guys who have to go: Pelfrey, Sanchez, and Lowe. Their contracts total $30.3M for 2017. This won't be easy. First, Sanchez. Move him to Philadelphia. They have a very low payroll and could use a veteran starter. They will lose Jeremy Hellickson to free agency and otherwise have a young starting staff. A veteran presence will help here. They have only $24M committed for 2017 so they can take this contract on. We also send them Buck Farmer, and all we ask in return is someone with a pulse. Our goal is to clear salary here, so we don't need to net much of anything in return. We will also have to agree to eat some of his salary. My guess is we can get away with eating $4.8M, netting a savings of $12M.

I then trade Lowe to another team, and for that, I pick the Colorado Rockies. Another low payroll team that could use some bullpen help. It would give Lowe a low risk place to resurrect his career, and give the Rockies a tradable piece at the deadline if he does. Would package him with a young prospect, give them the choice of pitching vs position. A Dominic Ficoccielo or a Zac Shephard, maybe even Dean Green. All decent prospects but not super stars. Offer Colorado something for taking on Lowe's $5.5M salary. On the pitching side, offer Tyler Alexander or Austin Kubitza. Kubitza a bit older, advanced and RH, where Alexander a bit younger, not as far along, but LH. Would not be opposed to one hitter and one pitcher off this list either if they take Lowe. Getting a hitter, a pitcher, and a veteral bullpen guy that they could flip at the deadline is a pretty good return for them. Would want either David Dahl or Raimel Tapia. Both young talented OF, but with strike zone issues. Both have some speed as well and could be used to improve depth in the system for OF, including CF. Net savings $5.5M.

So we are up to $25.5M savings so far, $7.5M short. Next, I try to move JD Martinez, as much as that hurts me to do it. His contract will be way easier to move than just about any other player on the roster. And given he will be a free agent after 2017, he won't likely be resigned by the Tigers if their goal is to reduce payroll. He is due his big pay day. Here is where you score some prospects for the future, but you look to fill your CF position voided by not picking up Maybin's option. JD is scheduled to make $11.75 M next season, so you are looking at $4.25M or less in return. My move here is to go to the Dodgers and ask for Andrew Toles. 24, who hits the ball hard and can run like the wind, but has had a lot of personal issues in the past. Joc Petersen appears cemented in CF in LA as well. JD can slot in RF with Kendrick in LF. Dodgers can use Puig as the 4th OF or move him elsewhere. I would also ask for one other lower level prospect from the Dodgers as well. This gives us two prospects, and the Dodgers get an all-star caliber RF with pop in his bat. JD could really help the Dodgers make a run at the World Series in 2017 so this should appeal to them. Since Toles is pre-arbitration eligible, he costs us little over the league minimum, but for rounding sake, this deal nets us $11M savings.

Note how I did not move Pelfrey. He would move to the pen and be a spot starter in case of injury. We could move his $8M salary though we likely would have to eat part of it. But so far we saved $36.5M in salary, more than meeting our goal of $32M. That would leave us about $4.5M to shore up other areas if needed. The one area we need to address is the back up catcher spot. We could go with Hicks, he is a defensive first catcher but if we are going for any free agent this is the spot. The sexy pick here is to go get Alex Avila. As you mentioned in the contest, signing him for $3M would work. Al is on record he did not want the Tigers drafting him in the first place, and likely would prefer his son plays elsewhere. But the Mrs. Avilas might just win Al over, as well as the grandkids. Could re-sign Salty as well, he won't command more than that $3M either. I could go either way, and not sure it really matters that much. James McCann is the starter, and a solid defensive back up catcher would really help here. I'll go with Alex Avila given superior defensive work. So final net salary savings is $33.5M, easily meeting our $32M goal, and that puts payroll around $187.4M. That also leaves us a little wiggle room to add someone for the bench if needed.

So my 25 man roster would look something like this:

C: Alex Avila and James McCann

IF: Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, Jose Iglesias, Nick Castellanos, Victor Martinez (DH), Andrew Romine, and Dixon Machado (out of options)

OF: Justin Upton, Steven Moya (out of options, time to find out if he can do this), and two more, take the best two out of the following group: Andrew Toles, Jacoby Jones, Anthony Gose, Tyler Collins. The last two are out of options, so if they don't make it, you try to find a minor trade for them or DFA them and if they elect free agency, so be it. Could also include them in any of the trades above if need to sweeten the deal. But if you do, then you are going to find some OF to sign to minor league deals and compete for spots on the roster.

SP: Justin Verlander, Jordan Zimmerman, Michael Fulmer, Matt Boyd, Daniel Norris.

Bullpen: K-Rod, Shane Greene, Justin Wilson, Alex Wilson, Bruce Rondon, Kyle Ryan, Mike Pelfrey. Going to say Joe Jimenez is going to start in Toledo, but he is likely the first up in case of injury.

There is almost no way you can cut $32M in salary and NOT take a hit to your competitiveness. But given the injury issues we had last year, a decent year health wise this team could give it a run. You make up JD's production with Upton hitting like he did at the end of the season and further development of Nick Castellanos. You hope Moya can hit at least as much (or little depending on how you look at it) as Upton did early in the season. Plus, he has little to prove by playing in the minors. Time to play him or trade him. You have Jones and Toles who should be able to hold their own offensively and defensively. And you cross your fingers, pray to God, make sure Jobu has plenty of rum.

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