Bless You Boys: All Posts by Patrick OKennedy

Is Andy Dirks the best outfielder in the American League?

2013-06-19T11:00:10Z

So I’m doing a routine stat search on fangraphs.com for some data on outfield defense, and I happen to notice that one of my favorite Tiger players is atop the leaderboard. I checked my search criteria- 2013- American League- Outfielders- Qualified. Yep, that’s right. Sort by UZR/ 150, and it’s- Andy Dirks, with a plus 32.9.

Now, if you’re not familiar with advanced defensive metrics, UZR stands for "Ultimate Zone Rating" and the UZR/ 150 is supposed to tell us how many runs a player would save, or cost his team over the course of 150 games as compared to the average fielder at the same position.

UZR takes into account all sorts of things. A full primer is here in the fangraphs glossary.
Basically, they use real play by play data recorded by Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) regarding the zone that a ball is hit to, the speed and trajectory of the hit, and whether an out was recorded by the fielder. They add, or subtract, points for errors, and assign values for arm strength for outfielders and double play values for infielders.

UZR is the defensive version of runs created. The runs are not actual runs saved, but by taking each play made by a fielder and plugging it into the average baseball situations, it gives us a number that should measure the value of the fielder's performance in terms of runs. It's the defensive component of WAR (Wins above replacement). In my view, it's the weakest link in WAR.

Anyway, there on top of the list is our own Andy Dirks, not exactly known for his defensive work, rated number one among all outfielders in both UZR at 9.7, and UZR/ 150 at 32.9. So I decide to resort the data by all fielders, and Dirks is still on top of the chart in UZR/ 150, although the Orioles’ Manny Machado is on top of the UZR list with a plus 14.6.

Now, any Tiger fan who has been watching Machado playing in the current series and the recent series against the Tigers can see that the kid is something special in the field.

Next, I look over to the other popular defensive metric, which is Defensive runs saved (DRS). This is the creation of Bill James, author of "The Fielding Bible". And there on top of the charts is- Andy Dirks, with a DRS of plus 10 runs. That’s pretty close to the UZR calculation of 9.7 runs saved. And once again, he is second in the league among all fielders to Machado. Coincidence?

Now, if you know anything at all about UZR, or if you read the conclusion to the linked story that I posted above from the fangraphs’ glossary, then you know that small samples with defensive metrics can be extremely unreliable. Ideally, you have two seasons’ worth of data, or at least one season where all the data seems to be telling you basically the same thing.

I have a preference for UZR/ 150 over UZR because it evens out the amount of time that a player is on the field. Despite his brilliant glove work, Dirks is not in the starting lineup every day like Machado. In fact, when the Tigers start a right handed hitter in left field, they’re more likely to use the great Don Kelly as a defensive replacement than Dirks.

When we’re dealing with smaller samples, such as we are just over 65 games into the season, I would not take these defensive metrics too seriously. In fact, I still like to look at stats such as Revised Zone Rating (RZR) and the number of Out of Zone (OOZ) plays to get an idea of a fielder’s efficiency.

RZR measures the percentage of plays that are hit into a given zone at the position, and provides the percentage of those that are turned into outs. A ball is credited with being in the zone if 50% or more fielders at that position make a play on the ball. The accuracy of the zone and whether a play is made is very accurate.

What is not accurate about RZR is that there is still a chance that one player at a given position might have a disproportionate number of balls hit harder, or hit to the far edge of the zone, whereas another player might have more balls hit right at him. It doesn’t adjust for defensive shifts, and as with all statistics, that randomness will even out over a large sample of data.

Over a full season’s worth of data, you can get a pretty accurate idea of how efficient a player is within his zone using RZR. it's even good for range up to the median range point of players at that position.

Out of zone plays are not a percentage, but rather just a raw number of plays that a given player makes outside of that calculated zone. Every player makes at least some OOZ plays. For example, Jhonny Peralta is a player who is very reliable within his zone, but has limited range when tested. Sure enough, he led the league last year in RZR, and was dead last in OOZ among qualified shortstops in the American league.

A look at the RZR ratings for outfielders so far this season is a good news/ bad news scenario for Tiger fans. Dirks is eighth in the league with an RZR of .939. So he records an out 94% of the time within a zone where half of all outfielders make the same play. Some of the ones he does not make could be due to positioning, but again, that will even out over time.

The bad news is that Torii Hunter is dead last, 31st out of 31 on the list, with an RZR of .819. Now, I’ve watched Hunter for the past several years living out here in Orange County, and I have no doubt that he has lost a couple of steps this year. I think he is playing deeper than he did in Anaheim, and that could be due to the change in parks, or due to the change in his body. Magglio Ordonez played deeper and deeper each season toward the end of his career. Hunter ranked fourth in UZR in 2012, fifth in DRS, 20th in RZR, and tenth in OOZ plays.

Checking on OOZ, Hunter is 20th and Dirks is 27th of 31 qualified outfielders. I can believe that. Neither one has made a lot of spectacular plays that I’ve seen. Dirks would rank higher on this list if he played every game.

Before I leave the page, I’ve got to see how the other Tiger outfielder is doing. Austin Jackson, I happen to recall, was among the league leaders defensively in 2012. He was eighth in RZR, third in OOZ plays, twelfth in DRS, and UZR/ 150. That is among 32 "qualified" outfielders.

This season, Jackson has missed a month on the disabled list, so he doesn’t have enough innings to be qualified. I reset the innings to 300 (he has played 340) and now he’s on the list. Jackson ranks 44th of 47 outfielders with a negative 22.7 UZR/ 150. His UZR is minus 4.9, meaning he is five runs below the average outfielder, and minus 4 DRS. In OOZ, he is dead last with just 15 out of zone plays.

At this point, I’m in complete disbelief with respect to any of these numbers. Okay, Jackson has missed a month, so he’s not going to make as many plays as a guy who has played 200 more innings. But he doesn’t look like a below average outfielder to me. Well, with 95 games or so left to play, he can make up those four or five runs and then some, and I fully expect he will.

For what it’s worth, Andy Dirks has not committed an error in the outfield this year, so his fielding percentage is 1.000. If you find fielding percentage to be reliable, that makes one of us.

And thus concludes my venture into the small sample of defensive metrics after only 65 games this season. I’m very happy to see Andy Dirks on top of the list of outfielders in the American League. But I take it with a grain of salt. I thought it would make a better headline, and a better story than just writing about advanced defensive metrics.

So much for small samples. And so much for defensive metrics. For now.

More Roars

•Tigers 5, O’s 1: Max reaches 10-0 | GIF: #MaxFace

•Austin Jackson’s return revs the engine

-Tiger bullpen could be better with better usage

•Kurt: Maybe Leyland has a bleeping point

•Links: Porcello is improving

Tigers bullpen news: Better usage could lead to better results

2013-06-18T11:00:09Z

On a team with the best rotation in major league baseball, and a lineup that ranks second in the league in runs scored per game, much of the criticism of the Tigers this year has been directed at the bullpen. The master plan to replace their veteran closer with an unproven rookie failed miserably. Their response was to bring back the veteran who failed them at the most critical time last season.

Tigers president and general manager Dave Dombrowski deserves some criticism for the failures of the bullpen this season, as much as he deserves credit for putting together such a powerful rotation and lineup. Last year’s bullpen ranked tenth in the league in bullpen ERA, and he did nothing to fix it. Nothing, that is, other than to hope that some of the pitchers they had improved and stayed healthy.

In fairness, the Tiger bullpen has taken some hits in the personnel department this season. Octavio Dotel, their most effective reliever last season, and a critical seventh inning set up man, has been injured and may be out for the season. Al Alburquerque has taken a walk on the wild side and been demoted to the minors where he still puts runners on base at an unhealthy rate. Brayan Villarreal , Jose Ortega, and Bruce Rondon also have been erratic in their short time with the Tigers, and are back in Toledo.

The Tiger bullpen has actually performed better as a unit this season than they did last, relative to the rest of the league. The bullpen ERA, however, is up from 3.79 in 2012 to 3.93 this season through Sunday's games. Their WHIP has remained steady at 1.31. The BB rate is up, despite removing the wild and crazy guys, from 3.49 to 3.79 per nine innings. The strikeout rate is also up from 8.50 to 9.59 per nine innings, same as their starting rotation.

The home run rate, despite the well documented struggles of Valverde, has dropped as Joaquin Benoit has corrected the issues that made him the most homer happy reliever in the league last season. Nothing stands out in the ground ball rate, nor the home run per fly ball ratio, as being much different from last year.

Sabermetrically speaking, Tiger relievers rank sixth in the league in FIP, third in xFIP, and fifth in WAR. Those numbers, together with a BABIP of .301, might suggest that they have been somewhat unfortunate, and that 3.90 ERA might be due for some adjustment in a favorable direction.

One number that jumps out at you is the decline in save percentage from 71% to 61%. We don’t really need to go into why that is, do we? The reason that the bullpen is drawing a lot of ire from fans is the same reason that they’ve blown more saves this year. After all, there is nothing more frustrating than letting a game get away that you thought was in the bag. Never mind the lack of run scoring in the late innings. When a save is blown, fans will blow up and the bullpen, especially the closer, will get the blame.

So, we have the best rotation in the world, and a lineup that produces plenty of runs, even if they’re not evenly distributed, but we have a bullpen that was mediocre last year, and hasn’t seen much improvement as a unit this year. Where can the bullpen be improved? Where does it need to be improved?

A look at the individual performances year to date, using Fangraphs, shows that Drew Smyly and Joaquin Benoit stand out as the most valuable members of the Tiger bullpen. Smyly takes Dotel’s place among the top ten relievers in the league, ranking eighth in WAR. Benoit is close behind at No. 11, both with a WAR rounded off to 0.8. Smyly also has the best FIP among Tiger relievers.

Smyly’s splits show that he has pitched 24.2 innings in low leverage, 9.2 in medium, and only 4.1 innings in high leverage situations. He strikes out one of every four batters, just over one per inning. He holds hitters to an average of just over .200 in all situations, and actually has pitched better with men on base. It’s pretty clear that he should be given a more important role in the bullpen.

Despite their wild streaks, Bruce Rondon and Al Alburquerque did not allow a home run, and that is a trait that both pitchers have taken with them from the minors to the majors, and back down again. There is a lot to be said for that. If a pitcher puts runners on base, but doesn’t let them score, then who cares? In fact, Al Al is right behind Smyly with an FIP of 2.36 to Smyly’s 2.31, and he has a WAR of plus 0.4 in just 14 innings of work. Not bad for a wild thing.

Phil Coke is has been worth half a win, despite being frequently misused in general relief as opposed to his ideal role mainly as a LOOGY. Coke’s LOB percentage is just 53.1%, meaning that almost half of the runners that have been on base have scored. That’s an indication of misfortune.

Darin Downs also has a positive 0.3 WAR and some good numbers, except that he has allowed three home runs. Those mistake pitches are what kill a relief pitcher, regardless of the role in which he is cast. FIP doesn’t like home runs. Downs actually has pitched 25.1 innings to Coke’s 19.2. Both have made 19 appearances thus far. Doesn’t seem like it, does it?

Luke Putkonen, Evan Reed, Ortega, Villarreal, and Rondon have all pitched less than ten innings this season, but suffice it to say that all but Reed are walking too many hitters to be considered for anything but a middle relief role thus far.

Alburquerque and Rondon were issuing free passes at the rate of about 8 per nine innings. It’s a good thing they kept the ball in the park with all those runners on base.

And then, there’s the closer. Jose Valverde has been one of the worst relievers in the league, with a WAR of 0.4 runs below replacement level. We broke down his performance using Pitch f/x here, and it’s pretty clear that the problem is that his split fastball is getting killed when he throws it in the strikezone. His fastball is still effective, but how effective a one-pitch closer can be is questionable. If he is used at all, and I suggested that he not be, then he has to ditch the splitter.

So what the numbers and the rankings show, in this limited sample size, is a bullpen that could be in the top third, but because the worst relief pitcher has been used in one of the most high leverage roles, and one of the best relievers has been used in relatively unimportant roles, the actual runs scored (as indicated in ERA) are in the middle of the pack, and the save percentage is near the bottom of the league due to Valverde’s implosions.

We’ve analyzed (and over-analyzed) Valverde’s performance and his role as the closer, to the point where that horse is dead and turned into glue. He remains in the role that draws the most attention, and the most ire when things go wrong. It’s something that has to be addressed.

Until Dave Dombrowski addresses the closer issue by either addition or subtraction, and he will, and as long as Jim Leyland continues to use his relief pitchers in roles that they are not ideally suited for, then the bullpen will continue to perform at a less than optimal level. Valverde should not be closing games. Smyly should play a more important role. Coke should be used mainly as a LOOGY. We hold these truths to be self evident. But to the one guy that matters, apparently they’re not.

More Roars

•Tigers 5, O’s 1: Max reaches 10-0 | GIF: #MaxFace

•Austin Jackson’s return revs the engine

•Kurt: Maybe Leyland has a bleeping point

•Links: Porcello is improving

Joaquin on the Mound

2013-06-18T01:50:18Z

Joaqin on the mound

Giant saves are what you take
Joaqin on the mound
I hope our pen don't break
Put Joaqin on the mound
Let’s get it together
With Joaqin on the mound
We could wait forever
For Joaqin on, Joaqin on the mound

Walking batters left and right
No Joaqin on the mound
Splitters smashed all freaking night
No Joaqin on the mound
Pitches never touch the ground
No Joaqin on the mound
this guy can’t get no one out
Get Joaquin on, Joaquin on the mound

Some may say
El Papa stands in our way
They say
Look at the price we pay
Each day
Jimmy thinks he’s o kay
No way
We might as well play- Joaquin

Giant saves are what you make
Joaqin on the mound
I hope our pen don't break
Joaqin on the mound
Let’s get it together
With Joaqin on the mound
We could wait forever
For Joaqin on, Joaqin on the mound

Some may say
I'm wishing my days away
No way
And if it's the price I pay
Some say
Tomorrow's another day
He’ll stay
I may as well play

Keep it up, keep it up

Five Aces give Tigers the best rotation in MLB

2013-06-16T11:00:06Z

Tigers fans are being treated to a truly dominant collective performance of the Detroit pitching rotation in 2013. What we are witnessing this season is a rotation that features five of the fifteen, possibly the ten best starting pitchers in the American League right now.

By almost any measure, from WAR to ERA to FIP, the five starting pitchers who toe the rubber in rotation are dominating opposing hitters game after game. There simply is not another team in major league baseball that can boast five quality starting pitchers like the Detroit Tigers have this season.

A look at the ranking of starting pitchers in the American League reveals the following through Friday's games:

Ranked by WAR, Anibal Sanchez and Justin Verlander rank first and second in the league. Max Scherzer and Doug Fister rank fourth and eighth, giving Detroit four of the top eight and three of the top four starting pitchers.
Ranked by ERA, all four of those starting pitchers are ranked in the top 15 in the league for this season.
Using fielding independent pitching (FIP) as a measure, Sanchez leads the league, while Scherzer, Verlander, and Fister rank 4, 5, and 6, giving Detroit four of the top six starters. Rick Porcello comes in at 14th for the season.
Porcello ranks 19th in the league in WAR, and 14th in FIP.
Using xFIP, which is park adjusted Fielding Independent pitching, all five Tiger starters rank in the top ten in the league.
Porcello has emerged as one of the best starters in the league in the past two months, ranking 15th in the league in ERA for May and 13th in June, and coming in at ninth in FIP during May and fifth in the league in June.

When you consider that there are fifteen teams in the league, each using a rotation of five starting pitchers for a total of 75 starting pitchers, the above rankings aren’t merely good, they are staggering.

As a team, the Tiger rotation leads the league with the most wins, the fewest losses, and the most innings pitched per game.

The Detroit rotation easily leads the league in ERA, and they’re blowing away the field with an FIP that stands one full run per game below the second place Texas Rangers. The WAR is also quite lopsided, with the Tigers’ 13.2 on top, and the Rangers a distant second at 8.7. That’s like a WAR between the USA and Grenada.

If all that is not enough, what the Tigers are doing with their strikeout rate is also pretty amazing. The major league record for most strikeouts in a season was set in 2003 by the Chicago Cubs, who fanned 1.404 batters. That averages out to 8.67 K/ 9. Of course, that's in a league where pitchers bat, rather than designated hitters.

The Tigers are on pace to shatter that record as a team, with a ratio of 9.56 strikeouts per nine innings. Over a full season at that rate, Detroit would whiff 1563 batters, breaking the record by 159, over 11 percent more K’s than any team in major league history.

The American League record for team strikeouts in a season was set in 2012 by the Tampa Bay Rays, who fanned 1.383 batters, with a ratio of 8.53 K/9. The Tigers were second in the AL, tied with the Yankees, and also second in AL history in 2012 with 1318 strikeouts. Detroit had a K/9 ratio of 8.29. The Tiger rotation led the league at 8.19.

This year’s Detroit Tiger rotation has a 9.56 K/9 ratio, which matches the team’s strikeout ratio. Normally, a team brings in strikeout pitchers in the late innings (calling Al Alburquerque), but the Tigers feed their opponents nine full innings of whiff sandwiches.

Take a deep breath, sit back, relax and have a look at how the Tiger pitching staff, and the rotation in particular, are carving up opponents. The rotation averages a quality start, which is something no other team is doing, and they’re striking out more than a batter per inning, which has never been done over a 162 game season.

Add the run production of more than five runs per game, which ranks second in the majors, and we might be witnessing something historic this season. Now, if the Tigers can just spread out those runs efficiently, and find a few good men to save the fantastic work of their starting pitchers, there is really nothing that can stop this team.

More Roars

•Tigers 4, Twins 0: Porcello still Rick-rolling

•Overanalysis: Rick Porcello's progress

•Leyland sticks with Valverde as closer

•World Series winners and their closers

•Kurt: I (bleep)ing want Smyly to close!

Octavio Dotel could be done for the season

2013-06-15T11:00:06Z

If you're looking for in house options to solve the Tigers' bullpen issues, don't ask Dotel. Or at least, don't count on the 39 year old journeyman reliever to be back any time soon, perhaps not at all this season.

Jason Beck at MLB.com reports that Dotel continues to be bothered by soreness in his right elbow, and his season is now in question. Beck quoted Tiger manager Jim Leyland

"I don't know what's going on with Dotel," manager Jim Leyland said. "I think he's just trying to see if he still has it. Hopefully he still has something left in the tank,"

Dotel was the Tigers' most effective relief pitcher in 2012, appearing in 57 games with an ERA of 3.57, an FIP of 2.30, and a WHIP of just 1.07. He struck out 9.62 batters per nine innings and walked fewer than two per nine frames. Dotel's FIP was the fourth lowest in the American League, and his WAR of 1.5 ranked seventh, both tops among Tiger relief pitchers.

Dotel holds the distinction of having played for more teams than any player in the history of major league baseball, suiting up for 13 different teams in his 13 seasons. His second season with the Tigers this year represents only the second time he has spent consecutive seasons with the same team in the past ten years. He has recorded over 100 saves in his career, a number surpassed only by Jose Valverde among Tiger pitchers.

The Tigers signed Dotel to a contract that paid him a salary of $ 3 million for the 2012 season with a team option worth $ 3.5 million for 2013, which was exercised by the club after the World Series last year. He was expected to be a major part of the Detroit bullpen in 2013.

Dotel has pitched only 4.2 innings this season, allowing 7 runs on ten hits and four walks to go with four strikeouts. He clearly wasn't himself when he was placed on the disabled list on April 23, retroactive to April 20. He was transferred from the 15 day DL to the 60 day DL on June 8, which cleared a spot on the 40 man roster for Jose Alvarez.

Dotel will turn 40 in November, so any serious injury could raise serious questions about his career. Neither Dotel nor the team has ruled out a return this season, but the inflammation in his right elbow is not going away. The Tigers could use an effective Dotel, but they can't count on him at this point.

More Roars

•Tigers 4, Twins 0: Porcello still Rick-rolling

•GIF: Prince slides, hilarity ensues

•Leyland sticks with Valverde as closer

•World Series winners and their closers

•Kurt: I (bleep)ing want Smyly to close!

Jose Valverde to close for now, Jim Leyland says

2013-06-14T22:08:06Z

Well, it's official. Tiger manager Jim Leyland's solution to the Tigers' closer dilemma is to stick with the status quo.

MLive's Chris Iott tweeted these comments from Leyland's pregame media session:

Leyland: "We're going to use Jose Valverde until we decide Jose Valverde can or can't do it or we've got somebody else better."
— Chris Iott (@Chris_Iott) June 14, 2013

Jim Leyland: "This basically boils down to everybody can tell me I'm bald but nobody can tell me how to grow hair. That's how I see it. …
— Chris Iott (@Chris_Iott) June 14, 2013

Jim Leyland: "'Hey, Jim, you're bald.' 'No (expletive). How do I grow hair?' 'Well, I have no idea.'"
— Chris Iott (@Chris_Iott) June 14, 2013

After Leyland's rant at the mere suggestion that he changed closers simply because Valverde has been abysmally ineffective recently, we should not be surprised.

Valverde has saved nine of twelve opportunities this year, for a 75% save rate. He features just two pitches, a four seam fastball and a split finger fastball. Opponents have a slugging percentage of .944 and an OPS of 1.260 against his splitter, which is his "strikeout" pitch. Against Valverde's fastball, opponents have slugged just .229 with an OPS of only .464.

Whether Valverde will continue to throw the splitter, or whether he'll just become a one pitch closer is something we'll have to wait to find out.

Leyland added:

We have nine blown saves, and Valverde has three of them.

Of course, a "save" can be blown any time in the seventh inning or later. Joaquin Benoit has not blown a save, and several others have not had a save opportunity yet this season.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

More Roars

•Phil Coke’s Brain: Who’s Your Closer?

•Leyland (bleep)ing wants to know that, too

•John: Leyland could learn from Leyland

•Dombrowski: No trades on the horizon

•Friday’s links: All the Valverde you can take!

Tigers rumors: Closer trade talks all quiet, says Dombrowski

2013-06-14T01:47:15Z

Help may not be on the immediate horizon for the Tigers' ninth-inning issues with closer Jose Valverde. At least that's what Tigers CEO/general manager Dave Dombrowski told media today in Midland, as reported by Hugh Bernrueter of MLive.com. At the same time, Dombrowski hinted that Jose Valverde was merely going through "a rough 10 games",

Dombrowski told MLive:

"Papa Grande has had a rough 10 games, but he was solid before then," Dombrowski said. "His velocity is still good. Yesterday, his fastball was up to 94, 95.

"People always talk about getting a dominant closer. There are very few dominant closers out there. You can exchange a lot of closers and get the same ups and downs with each one."

Now, that sounds like a far cry from the doom that is portrayed by many reports of the Big Potato's demise. The Tiger GM, who was in Midland scouting the farm system, home of the Low-A Dodgers affiliate Great Lakes Loons, went on to say,

"As a GM, you’re always talking to other GMs … that’s kind of your responsibility. But in our situation, talks don’t really get serious until the trade deadline."

Dombrowski is taking some heat from fans and the media following the latest implosion by closer Jose Valverde. After all, it was Dombrowski who shunned the idea that Valverde needed to be replaced with a veteran closer in the off season. It was Dombrowski who provided manager Jim Leyland with rookie Bruce Rondon, and the current cast of relievers in the Tiger bullpen. And it was Dombrowski who brought back Valverde when Rondon didn't step up and claim the job in spring training.

Actually, it was very much out of character for Dombrowski to not supply the major league team with a veteran closer. In every season since 2004, Dombrowski has always had one free agent closer on the roster. First, it was Ugueth Urbina, then Troy Percival, Todd Jones twice, Brandon Lyon (who lost the job in spring training to Fernando Rodney) and finally Valverde.

This time, though, Dombrowski let Valverde become a free agent and his designated replacement was Rondon, who had yet to throw a pitch in the major leagues.

He did make a similar move once before, when he allowed Placido Polanco to leave as a free agent after the 2009 season without so much as an offer of arbitration, and installed Scott Sizemore at second base. Sizemore had yet to play a game in the major leagues at the time, and we all know how that turned out. Not until last summer was that problem rectified, when Dombrowski swung a savvy trade for Omar Infante as part of the Turner for Anibal Sanchez deal.

It was Dombrowski who sounded confident in the bullpen plan during the winter, much moreso than Jim Leyland. The Tiger manager openly doubted every pitcher in his bullpen except possibly Rondon. Now that Valverde is struggling, he made clear in this rant that he had little confidence in anyone else to do the job.

Perhaps Dombrowski is merely telling us the reality of the situation. Fact of the matter is that there are few dominant closers, and we were fortunate to have had Valverde for three seasons, during which time he led the major leagues in saves.Teams who have a dominant closer aren't in a hurry to trade them just yet, signalling to their fan base that they're running a white flag up the pole on the season in June.

Perhaps Dombrowski also has more confidence in some of the other relief pitchers on the Tiger roster than his manager does. But according to at least one report from Danny Knobler, Dombrowski is actively looking for a closer.

Danny Knobler ‏@DannyKnoblerCBS 12 Jun

Tigers didn't need a Valverde blown save to remind them that they still need a closer. They've been looking hard, and will keep doing so.

I would be very surprised if Dombrowski wasn't scouring the major leagues, making calls in search of a closer.

Perhaps we will have to continue to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune and ride the Valverdecoaster for a while longer. I would like to see an internal move made in the interim, but it's very likely that, even if Valverde stabilized for a while, or say Joaquin Benoit or Drew Smyly could step into the closer's role, the team will still add another bullpen piece, and maybe a corner outfielder before the trade deadline. There's too much risk in not doing so, and that's a risk that Dombrowski calculated in the winter.

There is no doubt that the Tigers are hell bent on winning a World Championship for owner Mike Ilitch, and that having a reliable closer is currently one essential missing piece of the puzzle.

More Roars

•Royals 3, Tigers 2: Valverde, Coke cost Tigers ‘W’ | GIF

•Phil Coke’s Brain: Who’s Your Closer?

•Patrick: Try Bruce Rondon or Joaquin Benoit

•Rob: Think outside the box -- Darin Downs or Luke Putkonen

•Thursday’s links

Leyland: Who the (bleep) should I be closing with?

2013-06-13T19:00:06Z

Matthew B. Mowery of the Oakland Press tweeted this on Tuesday night, quoting Jim Leyland on the Tigers' closer situation.

Having said that about Valverde, this was Leyland's quote from the other day, on his 9th-inning options for #Tigers

"Who do these fans think we should be closing with? I don’t understand this. When I read (stuff) like this ... and there’s nothing wrong with the article. I don’t understand who they think we should be closing with.
"So I’m asking that question — who the (bleep) should I be closing with?

"They want some rookie kid? I mean, I don’t understand that.
"Stuff like that boggles my mind. It doesn’t upset me. I was just reading this. Talks about Valverde being the best closing option, and talks about the fans. It has nothing to do with me liking Valverde. Who the (bleep) should I close with? Who do you want me to close with? Ortega? Rondon? Smyly? I mean, who the (bleep) do you want me to close with? When I put Coke in the game, and they say ‘He can’t get a right-hander out.’ You want me to close with Coke? I don’t know what the (bleep) these people want. Sometimes, it boggles my mind."

We can hear the tone of the skipper's rant here, and it's pretty clear from the context that he doesn't feel that he has many viable alternatives to using Valverde as the closer. Most Tiger fans, and writers, would beg to differ.

We can't tell for sure exactly which article Leyland was referring to, so I'm going to step up and claim responsibility. I believe that I was one of the first, if not the first writers to call for Valverde's head on a silver platter, and I cited Mr Leyland's refusal to be flexible as one of the reasons a change had to be made. In an article that ran on BYB June 8th. While we're at it, I'd like to take this opportunity to welcome the members of the main stream media as well as the Tiger blogosphere to my bandwagon.

I'd also like to invite Mr Leyland to hop aboard. We have a seat saved for him. He can even have the driver's seat if he likes. We'll give him a senior citizen discount. Aw hell, just hop on. The view is much clearer from here. We'll drive this wagon out of the forest so you can see the trees.

To answer his question, I wrote this piece this morning, offering the most obvious solutions. Rob Rogacki wrote this more creative article, suggesting some outside the box solutions. Phil Coke's brain suggested a very methodical approach and even put it in a diagram for Mr. Leyland.

Taken all together, there's Joaquin Benoit, Bruce Rondon, and Drew Smyly. Then, there's Darin Downs, Evan Reed, and Luke Putkonen. They all have a few things in common. For one, they're not Jose Valverde. That means that they're not the status quo. They all have more than one effective pitch that they can throw in any situation. None of them throws an 85 MPH splitter belt high with regularity. None has allowed five home runs already this season, and none has blown three games that the Tigers had in the bag.

It's not that I don't appreciate the predicament that Mr. Leyland finds himself in. He made it clear to us last January during Tigerfest that he didn't like the options on the Tiger roster should rookie Bruce Rondon not be up to the task, as reported here by Kurt on BYB.

We have guys that can close a game, but I'm not sure other than potentially Rondon whether we have guys that can potentially close every game. In other words, Cokey can save a game, Benoit can save a game, Dotel can save a game, but I'm not sure if any of those guys can hold up day after day, physically or mentally, and I think that you have to be careful with that." (via Beck)

Leyland went down the list, name by name, discounting everyone but Rondon, while Dave Dombrowski was discounting Brian Wilson and others based on the fact that the closer job was not available in Detroit.

This isn't Leyland's best rant since he took over the reigns in Detroit. That distinction goes to his rant after Jason Grilli was traded- and once again, Leyland was the last one to clue in to the fact that his pitcher was toast- and had the audacity to criticize his former club.

Jason Beck had the full story of Leyland's most epic rant, all cleaned up for those with sensitive ears. This was the best part in my book. It's worth another read, if only for nostalgic purposes.

"Grilli should worry about Colorado. I mean, if Jason Grilli had done a better job, he'd still be here. I don't want to hear any weak [stuff] from Jason Grilli. But that's not any concern of mine now either, because he belongs to somebody else. My concern is the guys out there that are talking weak [stuff]. And they'll know about it today."

So, we can probably rule out Grilli as the answer to the skipper's question. He won't be back in Detroit any time soon. Not as long as Leyland is here. Besides, he's doing just fine in PIttsburgh, where he has the most saves, and the highest WAR of any relief pitcher in the majors this season.

For the moment, it sounds like we can rule out everyone else, too. Everyone that is, except Jose Valverde, the proven closer. Not to worry, though, Mr. Leyland is prepared for the criticism, and he's up for the challenge, as he also told us at Tigerfest.

"It's not going to be easy," Leyland said. "They're going to fire me about five times again this summer, but I don't mind second-guessing. I think that's healthy."

You have to give it to the skipper. He can predict the future pretty well. Now, if he'd just pay a bit more attention to the present...