Fanshots

Le Nombre Magique Jeu

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Images

#TeamWhen >>> #TeamIf

Results by Pitcher through 50 Games

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Results-through-may-29
LARGE IMAGE
Smyly starts 2-5; Porcello starts 8-2; JV starts 7-4; Max starts 8-3; Sanchez starts 4-4; Ray starts 1-2 The Tigers are 10-6 in one-run games.

This Miguel Cabrera .GIF is amazing

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Cabreracleto1.gif.opt_

Jeff Sullivan captured an amazing .GIF of Miguel Cabrera hitting a baseball. If you can find out why this .GIF is hilarious, then you will laugh as hard as I did. By the way, you can read his article by clicking this link here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-temporary-solution-to-miguel-cabrera/

Tigers ZIPS projections

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Tigers-depth

Full article available here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-zips-projections-detroit-tigers/

Ban on Home-Plate Collisions?

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Mlb_g_avila-ross01jr_300x200

After Alex Avila was removed from the game on Thursday, it up-rose the question on whether or not the MLB should place Bans on Home-Plate collisions.

Wiki graffiti: Justin Verlander owns the A's

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Owner

With 31 consecutive scoreless innings against Oakland in the playoffs by Justin Verlander, it seems pretty accurate.

Tigers and Indians Expected Wins for the Rest of 2013

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Win-expectation
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Bill James has written about the Log 5 method (The Log 5 method Wikipedia page gives a reference) for computing the chance of a team with a winning percentage of p playing a team with a winning percentage of q. The formula gives the chance of a team winning as p(1-q)/(p(1-q)+q(1-p)). I used the MLB standings before play on August 24 to calculate the chance the Tigers or Indians would win each remaining game. Summing these gives the expected number of wins each team will get for the remainder of the season. Detroit is expected to win 20 or 21 more for a total of 95 or 96 wins. Cleveland is expected to win 19 more games and finish with 88 wins. This agrees well with the Baseball Prospectus results from randomly playing out the rest of the season 10,000 times. (On average the Tigers win 96 and the Indians win 87 using that method.)

Of course this has flaws. You should perhaps use the expected number of wins a team should have using one version of Pythagorean wins instead of actual wins. Day to day the pitching match up matters more than the teams records. The Tigers for instance will face Harvey today in New York and the Mets probably win more than 46% of the time behind Harvey. It doesn’t account for a major injury or trade that could change these win percentages. However, this should reassure Tigers fans who are still worried even though Detroit has a 6 game lead. The lead should grow despite Cleveland’s slightly easier schedule.

Results of Series for the Tigers

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Series-results

I noticed a few days ago that the Tigers were under performing their expected wins based on the runs they had scored and the runs they had allowed. The difference is even greater when you consider how many runs a typical team with the Tigers offensive numbers would have scored. There are many possible reasons for this. Maybe the Tigers have their hitting concentrated in too few players. Maybe their bullpen has not held small leads. Maybe the Tigers have just had more bad breaks than usual in a season. I decided to compare run differentials series by series. Maybe a few blow out games that the Tigers won skewed things. I did find five series where the Tigers scored more runs and still lost the series. I found no series where the Tigers scored fewer runs yet won the series. 5 does seem like a lot when you consider that you can’t have flipped results in swept series or a split series. However, since I did not investigate other teams this may in fact be a typical number, or at least a typical number for good teams.

See the image bigger.

El Juego Número Mágico

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Lou-whitaker

I'm just going to leave this riiiiiiiiiiiight here.

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