Some of you may know of PECOTA, the Baseball Prospectus projection system. Developed in 2002-03 by Nate Silver -- son of Dr. Brian Silver, who was my favorite professor at Michigan State at around that same time -- the system uses statistical modeling to create projections for the upcoming season.

(His father was also heavily involved in statistical modeling and elections. All I did in his class, however, was read Supreme Court rulings and debate things, which thankfully involved a lot less math. Full disclosure brag: I got a 4.0 in the class and a letter of recommendation from Dr. Silver.)

PECOTA had its up years and its down, sometimes coming back as the most successful system and sometimes not. Nate Silver has since left to model elections for FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times, leaving the system in new hands. Now, Colin Wyers runs the system after making a few tweaks to it. You can read more details at the Baseball Prospectus site.

While you should never trust any one projection system to consistently the most accurate, I still enjoy the PECOTA system. Maybe because it shows up like Christmas in February every year. Probably because of the list of comparable players given back based on stats, position and body type.

Obviously, giving you a full look at the PECOTA sheet for the Detroit Tigers isn't possible because Baseball Prospectus sells the information to subscribers only. But I thought I'd share a few of the fun ones.

Price Fielder -- Norm Cash, Todd Helton, Frank Thomas
A famous Tigers slugger and my favorite player of the 90s. Not the best comparables but not bad.

Max Scherzer -- Pedro Martinez, Jake Peavy
We'll take it.

Adam Wilk: Mark Buehrle
Wait, what?!

Justin Verlander -- Kevin Appier
Wait, what?! Part 2

Delmon Young -- Moises Alou, Carlos Lee
See, Detroit didn't need to trade for Lee after all!

Jose Valverde -- Kerry Wood
I was really expecting to see Al Alburquerque here, to be honest.

Magglio Ordonez -- Al Kaline
Sure Maggs isn't with Detroit any more, but it's nice to see Kaline come back as the best comparable

There's plenty more fun stuff on PECOTA, from Miguel Cabrera's three stolen bases to Brandon Inge's batting average. (Hint: they're about the same.) So if you subscribe, be sure to go download your copy now and check it out. If you don't subscribe, give Baseball Prospectus a look.

The Detroit Tigers announced the games that will be televised and on the radio during the 2012 spring training.

TV Dates:

March 14 -- ESPN
March 19 -- ESPN
March 20 -- ESPN
March 21 -- Fox Sports Detroit
March 29 -- Fox Sports Detroit
March 31 -- Fox Sports Detroit
April 4 -- Vs. Toledo Mud Hens -- Fox Sports Detroit

Other games may be picked up by the MLB Network, but those seven are the bare minimum.

Radio dates:

March 3 -- 97.1 FM
March 4 -- 1270 AM
March 5 -- 97.1 FM
March 9 -- 1270 AM
March 10 -- 97.1 FM
March 11 - 97.1 FM
March 17 -- 97.1 FM
March 18 -- 1270 AM
March 25 -- 97.1 FM
March 31 -- 97.1 FM
April 1 -- 1270 AM

As out-staters know, you may or may not get these games on your affiliated stations. (I know I don't get them in Marquette).

As you probably heard, the MLB playoffs were set to expand to 10 teams in the upcoming season. Each league would have two wild cards play each other in a single game. They'd both officially be playoff teams -- cha-ching go the extra merchandise sales -- but it would be sort of akin to requiring a Game 163 to make the big boy playoffs with their multi-game series.

(Baseball for NFL fans, I like to think of it. Yeah, I'm cynical, so what?)

That plan seems to be on hold for now.

ESPN.com's Jayson Stark wrote yesterday:

Wednesday was supposed to be the day the commissioner's office finished a proposed schedule for the 2012 postseason and shipped it to the players' association for consideration. But sources told ESPN.com that deadline wasn't going to be met -- not because talks have broken down, but because fitting two extra wild-card pieces into the postseason puzzle has proved to be more involved than the commissioner has been willing to acknowledge.

The commish and the players union must agree by March 1 in order for the playoff expansion to happen.

Stark lays out plenty of details that have to be figured out. A key problem is the schedule. With the end of the season and the start of the World Series already locked in, there's not a lot of wriggle room. The last day of the regular season is Oct. 3 and the start of the divisional series is currently Oct. 6. In between, the wild card round must be held, and it may be necessary to play make-up games or even a 163rd game to decide who makes the playoffs or who wins the division. (Stark reported because there's such a huge gap between winning the division and being a wild card team, ties in the standings will now be settled on the field and not by formula even if both teams are already in the playoffs.)

Game times must be set and travel days may be re-arranged to make it all work, but nothing has been settled yet, Stark reports.

However, Starks wrote:

Despite the numerous complications, all parties describe the two sides as making a serious effort to make these changes work for this year. But the various hang-ups have turned out to be so difficult to resolve that one source said this week: "I really don't know if this is going to get done.

So I guess we should all keep an eye on this going forward.

The Tigers report Victor Martinez had microfracture surgery on his left knee and had repairs to his MCL and meniscus on Friday. Dr. Richard Steadman is optimistic Martinez will be ready for ACL reconstruction surgery in 6 to 8 weeks.

The Tigers' press release states:

The preliminary surgery on Friday went well according to Dr. Steadman and he is optimistic Martinez will be ready to undergo ACL reconstruction surgery on his left knee in approximately six-to-eight weeks. The Tigers continue to expect Martinez to be sidelined for the 2012 season.

Martinez injured the knee roughly two weeks ago while doing an off-season workout.

"It's amazing. Because every lineup I've written down so far, (Miguel) Cabrera and (Prince) Fielder are in that lineup."

Tigers manager Jim Leyland has had a happy couple of days in filling out imaginary lineup cards. This is the one he recited during the Tigers' press conference held today to announce the signing of Prince Fielder:

1. Austin Jackson (RH)
2. Brennan Boesch (LH)
3. Miguel Cabrera (RH)
4. Prince Fielder (LH)
5. Delmon Young (RH)
6. Alex Avila (LH)
7. Jhonny Peralta (RH)
8. ?
9. ?

Continue reading this post »

There were two major questions that people were asking after news of Prince Fielder signing with the Tigers came out. We could make assumptions -- safe ones it turns out -- but we didn't have answers before today. The first: Does this deal get done without Victor Martinez being injured? Answer: No. The second: Was this deal hatched by Mike Ilitch? The answer appears to be that he didn't hatch it but he a played a big part in it.

During the press conference today, owner Mike Ilitch, CEO/President/GM Dave Dombrowski and agent Scott Boras all shed angles on the story. Piecing those angles together, this is the rough timeline we get. It may not be quite perfect as not everyone recited their activities in perfect running diary form. But this seems reasonably close.

January 11 -- Prince Fielder is renewing his wedding vows with his wife Chanel. Agent Scott Boras said that because of this, he and Prince were not ready to begin any discussions about contracts around this time.

January 12-13 -- Somewhere around here, Victor Martinez injured his left knee while doing lateral movement drills. His right knee slipped, and his left knee absorbed too much weight, tearing the ACL.

January 16 -- Dombrowski receives word that Martinez has had an MRI in Florida and will likely need surgery and miss the season. Fans and team alike are hit by a punch to the gut.

Continue reading this post »

Prince Fielder will be introduced by the Detroit Tigers in a press conference set for 2 p.m. today at Comerica Park.

Those of you out of state or at work might be wondering how you can see Prince Fielder introduced in the Old English D.

Fox Sports Detroit plans to stream the press conference, and it should also be televised on Fox Sports Detroit as well as the MLB Network.

You can use this thread to discuss it while it's happening.

We'll have a story about it here and links to FSD's archive of it when they post it, as well.

The Tigers officially announced what we all already knew: They have signed Prince Fielder through 2020. The press conference is set for 2 p.m.

Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski said in the press release:

"Prince Fielder is one of the premier offensive players in the game of baseball and we are extremely excited to add an all-star caliber player like him to our lineup.

"The addition of Prince is a testament to the organization's continued commitment to fielding a championship club."

MLB.com's Jason Beck has an update on the money end on his blog.

Details of the contract are also coming out in the report - $23 million in each of his first two seasons, followed by a $24 million annual salary for the ensuing seven years. He also has plenty of incentives: $500,000 for AL MVP with $1 million if he's a repeat winner, $200,000 for second thru fifth place, $100,000 for top 10, $100,000 if he's an All-Star starter, $50,000 for a reserve spot, and $100,000 each for a Hank Aaron award, Silver Slugger, Gold Glove, or Sporting News or Baseball America postseason All-Star honors.