The Storyline For 2008 is Forming

by Ian Casselberry on Jan 8, 2008 3:09 PM EST in News Comment 4 comments

On his blog today, ESPN.com's Buster Olney lists 13 (non-steroid related) top stories for the 2008 season. (subscription) His second story concerns the Detroit Tigers:

2. Just how many runs will the Tigers score -- and will it be enough to prop up their thin pitching staff?

Justin Verlander might win 20 games with the staggering run support he is likely to receive, because there are days when he may allow six runs in five innings and still win by a touchdown; the Tigers may be the latest team to take a run at scoring 1,000 runs. But Detroit will likely be without Joel Zumaya the whole season, and the Tigers desperately need Dontrelle Willis -- whose diminished stuff was noted by NL advance scouts last year -- to be a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter.

So we can see the storyline that people are forming about the Tigers approximately six weeks away from the beginning of Spring Training. Conventional wisdom says they're going to score many, many runs with one of the best lineups we've ever seen. But that pitching staff has some question marks. Jeremy Bonderman and Dontrelle Willis are coming off down years. We're not sure Kenny Rogers can make it through the season fully healthy. Who will be able to replace Joel Zumaya in the bullpen? And if he's able to come back as scheduled, what kind of thrower will he be?

I'm not disagreeing with that assessment at all, but sometimes the national guys have a different view of a team from a distance than the hardcore fans and loyal followers have. So I'm curious what the view is from inside Tiger Town. Do you think the super hitting/so-so pitching expectation is accurate? Or is that oversimplifying the case? Are there any other storylines, perhaps less over-arching, that you see as you look at the current roster? What's being missed?

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In general I think the storyline is accurate. The Tigers offense does look formidable. I think the possibility that a new team (rather than the Yanks or Red Sox) can stake a legitimate claim to "best offense in baseball" is news in and of itself. I can see a legitimate run at 1000 runs scored.

I think the "thin pitching staff" storyline is somewhat overblown. Obviously the pitching staff looks shaky by comparison. Verlander is a staff ace. I think one can reasonably expect to get #3 starter performance (or better) out of Bonderman and Rogers. I think one can also expect to get #4 starter performance (or better) out of Robertson and Willis.

Bonderman had a 3.48 1st half ERA last year. Call me crazy, but I think he finally has an injury-free season and turns the corner this year. If that happens, the pressure on everyone else is greatly reduced. Remember, they got 26 starts last year from Mike Maroth (5.06 ERA) and Andrew Miller (5.63). With better health, we hopefully won't see as many "#6 starter" starts.

The bullpen wasn't great last year, and won't be this year. There are some decent guys in the pen though. Rodney is a pretty good setup man, and Jones is a closer who will make you smash your remote 5 times a year, but will wind up with 40 saves. Bobby Seay and Tim Brydak did some good work last year. The rest of the guys are unspectacular, and you can't count on Zumaya this year.

Bottom line, yes the offense looks volcanic, and the pitching staff looks shaky. Don't forget though, the Tigers had a terrible year health-wise last year, especially among pitchers. Rogers, Bondo, Robertson, Jurrjens, Andrew Miller's struggles, Zumaya, etc. I'm rambling at this point, but I think their pitching staff will perform at least as well as it did last year (not hard to do) and their offense will be better. Don't forget, they DID win 88 games last year...

by ThaWalrus9 on Jan 8, 2008 9:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I agree

All good points, Walrus.

The Tigers have five legitimate major league starters in the rotation and a credible staff ace in Verlander. With the offensive production they're going to get out of their lineup, the starting pitching should be sufficient. The relief pitching looks weak on paper, but there are still several adequate arms available, and the bullpen is the least difficult in-season upgrade to make for a baseball team.

by Brian8603 on Jan 9, 2008 2:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs