The D-Train Wreck

by Ian Casselberry on Mar 26, 2008 6:27 PM EDT in News Comment 2 comments

So if a terrible Spring Training capped off with one final meltdown was enough for Tim Byrdak's services to no longer be required, what's going to happen with Dontrelle Willis after his disastrous outing this afternoon against the powerhouse that is the Pittsburgh Pirates? (Mike McClary already posed this question at The Daily Fungo earlier today, and sent me a fiery text message detailing Willis's meltdown.)

Let's survey the crime scene, shall we? In three horrifying innings, Willis gave up seven runs (six earned), eight hits, and four walks. Against the D-Train, it was all Pirates aboard.

Willis thus finishes the spring with an 8.64 ERA and a 1-3 record. He struck out 12 batters in 16 2/3 innings, but his 15 walks and 16 earned runs wipe out virtually all positive vibes.

Are the Tigers going to send the D-Train to the scrap heap? With the three-year, $29 million contract they gave him just before Christmas, such a decision would be highly unlikely. But sending Willis in for repairs might not be a bad idea. I asked if he was injured earlier this week, but the Tigers apparently thought he was well enough to send him out there today.

Not that you would wish injury upon anyone, but at this point, should we be hoping that a sore arm is the cause of Willis's struggles? Any other explanation could be far more disturbing.

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Willis

Wow, I just wrapped up writing a post about Willis and pretty much said the same thing about him being hurt. Wouldn't that just explain what's going on with him? I really hope it's that simple. If it's that he's just not able to get people out when healthy and in his mid-20s that would be almost irreversible.

by blakelvb on Mar 26, 2008 6:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Funky Delivery

We really can't put much stock in spring performances or spring stats, it's just too small a sample size.

6.19 ERA
16 IP
12 K
6 BB
2 HR

Those are the stats from 3 starts in a row by Justin Verlander on April 16, 22 and 28th. I think we'd all argue that they are not representative of his season last year.

That isn't to say that there isn't a problem and as usual the symptom is walks. Even when comparing these small sample sizes Willis gave up almost 3 times the number of walks. Granted the circumstances are far different since Willis hasn't actually pitched a full game yet, but there is reason for concern.

I think the problem however is delivery. Even Leyland addressed how Willis funky delivery would be ok if there weren't "variations" of it. The good thing about that is if the coaching staff can help Willis tweak whatever is wrong he could become a very effective pitcher. The bad thing is that such a tweak isn't always so easy and Willis will just be a rollercoaster this year...Think Oliver Perez.

If he was injured I think we would have known by now. After what happened with Bonderman last year I don't think the Tigers are going to screw around with pitchers trying to hide injuries or let an obvious health problem derail a $30m investment. I also don't think they would have given him that contract if they thought he was at risk of having some kind of chronic problem.

by amcondor on Mar 26, 2008 7:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs