Salesman extraordinaire Justin Masterson makes his pitch. via multimedia.heraldinteractive.com

The baseball player market is a tricky economy, but you can still apply some simple financial concepts to it, like the axiom "Buy Low, Sell High." In baseball, this means you trade players at the peak of their perceived value, and acquire them when they are underrated (see Ortiz, David).

When evaluating prospects and young players, you need to look at potential value as well as past performance. For example, Kason Gabbard produced well for the Red Sox in 2007, increasing his perceived value. However, few scouts or other baseball people saw him as anything more than a fringe major league player or a 5th starter. Gabbard was traded as part of the Eric Gagne deal (a strange case in which both teams were selling high on their players). Between injury and regression, Kason didn't impress this year (5.14 FIP, only 56 innings pitched), and the Sox didn't miss him. So let's talk about another player who has raised his value.

Playoff hero, bullpen stalwart - it's tough to imagine Justin Masterson's stock rising any higher. By contrast, it's quite easy to see it fall. As I've previously mentioned, going by FIP and BABIP, Masterson's 2008 debut was rather lucky. There is a fair chance that his performance (runs allowed) will fall into line with his peripherals (balls in play, walks). On the other hand, with improved control, he could become an even better pitcher.

In terms of ceiling, few scouting sources believe he'll be a top of the rotation starter, or a closer. Soxprospects.com writes Masterson could be "a #3 starter or dominant set-up man." John Sickels sees Masterson as a #3 starter if his changeup improves; he also believes Justin has the skills and mentality to close.

Considering his ceiling and his peripherals, I think that Masterson is a good candidate to trade. Among starters, Bowden has about the same ceiling, Buchholz has a higher one, and we still have Beckett, Dice-K, Lester, and Wake. Among relievers, we have Daniel Bard and his overpowering fastball rapidly approaching the majors. More importantly, reliever performance is quite variable from year to year, with dominant set-up men one year being atrocious the next (see Betancourt, Rafael and Balfour, Grant). We already have some good set-up candidates in the pen (Manny Delcarmen, Ramon Ramirez, Wes Littleton) so Masterson isn't desperately needed there.

The danger is that we hold on to Masterson, he regresses, and becomes either a mediocre starter or a poor middle reliever. All the value that he accrued this year is lost. Undoubtedly the Red Sox are a good enough team to survive that possibility. But if Masterson can bring a great return now, like the catcher of the future, then I would definitely go for it.

What do you think? Is it time for the Red Sox to cash in? Should we sell high on Masterson, or should we hold on to him?

Jason Varitek and his agent Scott Boras discuss their negotiating strategy. Image source: Boston Dirt Dogs.

The Red Sox have a problem behind the plate. Jason Varitek, our starting catcher, had a .313 on-base percentage, and only threw out 22.22% of base runners. Our backup, Kevin Cash had a .309 OBP, although he at least played good defense.

As we all know, hitting by Red Sox catchers was very poor this year. Varitek had only two months in which he got on base more than a third of the time. You might argue that catchers across MLB were terrible at hitting and getting on base, and you would be right. Unfortunately, there are some exceptions to this, and we faced two of them in playoffs: the Rays' Dioner Navarro (.349 OBP) and the Angels' Mike Napoli (.374 OBP, 20 HR).

More to the point, the Red Sox are not like most teams. They have a high payroll and the highest ticket prices. It's not unreasonable to expect more than mediocrity from behind the plate.

Randy outlined the available free agent catchers a while back, and they are generally as bad as Tek or worse. So let's take a look at some of the prospects and young players who might be available in trade.

First off, we can surmise that some players won't be discussed. Russell Martin is not available. Matt Wieters, Baltimore's young catcher, should also be off the table - he'll be a centerpiece of their rebuilding process. Geovany Soto just won Rookie of the Year for a contending team, so he's going nowhere. Leaving these people out, there are still some promising hitting catchers out there.

Jeff Clement - Major-league ready for two years, Clement is nonetheless blocked in Seattle by the veteran Japanese catcher Kenji Johjima until 2011. The 25-year-old has scorched in AAA the past two years, hitting .275 / .370 / .497 with 20 HR in 2007 and .335 / .445 / .676 with 14 HR in 2008. He hasn't shown much success in the bigs, as of yet, with a .237 / .309 / .393 line in 219 AB. Clement underwent arthroscopic surgery recently, but he's expected to be 100% by spring training.

J.R. Tolkein Towles - 24 years old, lacks good power, but hits well in the minors. Like Clement, he hasn't found success in the majors just yet (.188 / .288 / .323 in 186 AB). John Sickels compared him favorably with Geovany Soto before the season started, liking Towles' athleticness and potential.

Bryan Anderson - Blocked at C by Yadier Molina, who is signed cheaply through 2011 ($7 million 2012 option). Blocked at 1B by some guy named Albert Pujols. Turns 22 this December. Hits well, gets on base, lacks power. After his promotion to AAA this year, he hit .281 / .367 / .369 in 235 AB.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia / Taylor Teagarden / Max Ramirez - Texas has three catchers who are ready to step in at the major league level. I'm not going to spend much time on them, since we've discussed them elsewhere. Teagarden is the best regarded of the bunch, as he is polished defensively and hit well in his MLB callup (1.205 OPS in 16 games). Ramirez had strikeout issues in AAA and the majors (29.2% K-rate) but had a 1.096 OPS in AA. Salty's defense has been questioned, and he hasn't performed superbly with bat.

Louis Marson - Marson exploded onto the prospect scene with a .849 OPS this year at AA, largely driven by his .433 OBP. He doesn't have great power (.391 career slugging in the minors), but his on-base skills are pretty good (.370 career OBP in the minors). He'll turn 23 next year, and he's in Philadelphia's system. Sickels gives him a C+, and doesn't think too highly of him.

Of these guys, I like Anderson, Salty, and Teagarden the best, but any of the above would be cheaper, and quite likely better, than a full season of Varitek at >$6 million.

What do you think? What is our future at catcher, for 2009 and beyond? Show your essential leadership skills and intangibles: comment below, and answer the poll.

With speculation that the Red Sox may end up breaking the bank for Mark Teixeira, it's time we discussed how valuable he really is.

Dave Cameron goes into this subject on Fangraphs.com. Estimating that Tex is a worth an additional five wins above a replacement-level player, he comes up with the following values:

If Teixeira is a +5 win player, and we use the $5.5 million per win projection for off-season spending, that gives us a $27.5 million figure for 2009. Again, we’ll factor in a 10% discount off of his current value for the safety of a long term deal, and that gives us something like $24.5 million for Teixeira. Teams are more comfortable giving longer deals to hitters than pitchers, so let’s pencil him in for a 7 year, $171 million contract.

Pretty incredible, huh? How many of us would have valued Tex so highly?

I have some issues with these figures. First, Cameron bases the offensive value of Tex (+3 wins) on the last two years. Why is that significant? Well...

OPS+
2003: 102
2004: 131
2005: 144
2006: 126
2007: 150
2008: 151

Over the last two years Tex has put up the best overall offensive numbers of his career. Ages 27-28 is when most players start to peak, and Tex is now 28. It's not wholly unreasonable to project Tex based on his age 27 and 28 seasons, but we should keep in mind that he's had less spectacular seasons as recently as two years ago.

Another issue is that Cameron does not plan for any age-related decline in Tex's performance. Most players begin to decline offensively after age 32. A 7-year deal would pay Tex to age 35. It's a little optimistic, to say the least, to expect Tex to 1) hit as well as he has in his career years, and 2) to hit that well over seven years.

Since we're talking Manny money here (>$20 million per year), how does Tex compare with Manny at age 28? Manny also had career  years at age 27 and 28 (OPS+ of 173 and 186, respectively), but he had been much more consistent, prior to that. His first season with more than 90 games (1994, age 22), he had a 125 OPS+. Thereafter he had four years of 144-147 OPS+.

For my money, Tex is a much more comparable hitter to Jason Bay. Their career OPS+s are very close - Tex is 134, Bay 131. Manny is a career 155 OPS+ hitter.

Turning to defense, no one would dispute that Tex plays a mean first base. However, so does Kevin Youkilis. According to the Fielding Bible's Plus/Minus, Youk edges Tex +25 to +22 over the past three years (2006-2008). Teixeira's defense is not worth as much to the Red Sox, who can keep Youk at first, as it is to the Yankees or Angels, both of whom have holes at the position.

I'd revise Teixeira's value downward, especially for the Red Sox. Since we receive no marginal gain in defense (and might even suffer by replacing Lowell with Youk), a fairer value for our team might be +3 wins, or $16.5 million a year. I'd throw some money on top for inflation, and offer a competitive rate of $18 million a year.

All this said, the best part about signing Tex would be hurting the Yankees and the Yankees West (LAA of A). New York faces the long-term prospect of a declining offense, as their stars age and their young players fail to hit (see "AAA" Melky and "No-Walk" Cano). Tex could help them, although he'd block Posada / A-Rod / Jeter from moving to first. The Angels, meanwhile, would have given up the promising Casey Kotchman for nothing more than a Red Sox draft pick. Moreover, they'd still be down a power hitter. In the end, Theo may decide that kneecapping our playoff competition might be worth overpaying for Teixeira.

So, to the big question: What do YOU think Teixeira is worth? Answer the poll, and leave your thoughts in the comments below.

The Red Sox announced today that ticket prices for 2009 would be frozen at their 2008 levels. According to the press release, this is the first time in 14 years that ticket prices have not been raised. From the article:

"John Henry, Tom Werner, and our ownership always try to look at our business through the prism of the Red Sox fans who have stepped up to higher prices each year for several years," said Lucchino. "We are taking this step to arrest the growth of season ticket and individual game ticket prices to ensure the great and distinctive Fenway Park experience is a viable option in 2009 for as many citizens of Red Sox Nation as possible."

I think someone realized that both attendance and revenues would decline (and there would be a PR backlash) if ticket prices rose in the midst of a serious recession.

According to Sports Illustrated and other sources, the Oakland Athletics (!) traded for Matt Holliday today. The players going to Colorado are not yet known.

This is huge news, and very surprising to me. Presumably Billy Beane means to sign him long-term, because otherwise all the A's will be holding come 2010 will be a couple of draft picks. Holliday should cost nearly $20 million per year, and is undoubtedly looking for a LONG deal. More info as it comes in.

IF Holliday is locked up, it deprives the Red Sox and Yankees (and Angels, and everyone else) of a young power hitter who plays good defense. It also affects how much Jason Bay will get in an extension from Boston, or on the open market if we can't resign him.

According to Alex Speier's blog on WEEI.com, Jason Bay is interested in discussing a contract extension with the Red Sox. At present he is due to hit the free agent market in the 2009 offseason (along with Matt Holliday). From the blog:

“It’s a situation where he’s loving Boston. It’s a great club and a great organization,” said Nez Balelo of Creative Artists Agency. “He’s a quality player, and I’m sure (the Red Sox) recognize that. Whatever they want to do, I’m sure that we’re all ears.”

I think it's worth talking. Bay has proven he can hit in Boston, and in the playoffs. Overall, he hit .286 / .373 / .522 with 31 HR between Boston and Pittsburgh. His .302 Equivalent Average was fourth best on the team, behind Drew (.314), Youk (.313) and Manny (.310).

The only knock on him is defense: an .821 RZR in his limited time in Boston. His arm isn't great, and he doesn't have great range (or plays balls too tentatively). Some of that may be unfamiliarity with the Green Monster.

Contract talks would probably start around $16 million a year for 5+ years. What say you, OTMers? Deal or no deal?

via www.voanews.com

November 4th, 2008, perhaps the most historic day in U.S. History. Today, the hopes and dreams of millions of Red Sox fans were realized, when Most Valuable Player (MVP) candidate Dustin Pedroia was selected as MVP in the Internet Baseball Awards. The results were called by Baseball Prospectus around 10am on Tuesday.

From Tallahasee to Portland (both coasts), 1,400 voters fired up their high-speed internet connections, told their mothers not to disturb them, and placed their votes. When the dust had settled, one man was Dustin the competition. Pedroia made history by being only the second player to win IBA MVP the year after he was rookie of the year. The first was former Red Sox Nomar Garciaparra.

The contest was fierce, especially in battleground basements, but in the end, Pedroia's superior organization and fundraising proved pivotal. Curt Schilling's prominence on EverQuest was cited by analysts as a critical factor. Advocacy by non-partisan sources may have also played a role. Pedroia was second in first-place votes to Joe Mauer(408 to 423), but he gained a clear majority in second place votes (319-240). Overall, Pedroia won by 12,963 points to Mauer's 11,416. Grady Sizemore placed third with 7,871 points.

Other Red Sox players were also in voters' consideration, both for MVP and for other awards. Kevin Youkilis placed sixth in the MVP race (6391 points). Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka were third and fifth, respectively, in the Cy Young race. Among rookies, Jacoby Ellsbury was fifth for the Rookie of the Year award. And Terry Francona was third in Manager of the Year award voting.

Congratulations to all the Sox players nominated, to Dustin Pedroia and to the other winners, and to all the brave people who voted in the IBA elections.

via media.philly.com

I'm noticing a pattern in World Series victories.

2003 Yankees vs. Florida Marlins - Marlins win (NL)
2004 Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals - Red Sox win (AL)
2005 White Sox vs. Houston Astros - White Sox win (AL)
2006 Detroit Tigers vs. Cardinals - Cardinals win (NL)
2007 Red Sox vs. Colorado Guys blessed by god Rockies - Red Sox win (AL)
2008 Rays vs. Phillies - Phillies win (NL)

Do you see it? Look closely. Give it a minute. Squinch your eyes up, and look for the sailboat, I mean pattern. Have you found it?

Alright here goes. When the American League is represented by Sox, White or Red, it wins. When the American League is represented by someone else, the National League team is victorious.

Given this conclusive and indisputable evidence, an immediate solution presents itself: the rest of the league should collude to ensure that a Sox team makes the World Series. To do otherwise is to allow the dreaded prospect of National League Victory. And that, frankly, is un-American. Or at least, un-American League.

To be serious for two sentences, Congratulations to the Phillies and their fans! Your team played well and knocked off a tough foe. Granted, that the clock struck midnight and B.J. Upton, Carlos Pena, and Evan Longoria all turned into pumpkins undoubtedly helped (a combined 8 for 57 in the series, with 1 extra-base hit). Such things happen to Cinderella teams, though.

via digitalderek.typepad.com

The Hank Aaron award recognizes offensive contribution and is decided by fan vote. See here.  Kevin batted .312 / .390 / .569 with 29 homers. He was 6th in league BA and OBP, 3rd in SLG, and 4th in OPS. He was 3rd on the team in Value over Replacement Player with 55.8, behind only Pedroia (62.3) and Jon Lester (58.2), and 2nd in Equivalent Average (.313), behind only J. D. Drew (.314). In the NL, Cubs' third baseman Aramis Ramirez won the award.

Congrats Youk! You deserve it. And I would be remiss in my duties if I didn't add this: How do you like that, Mel?