Extra Bases:

Consider me a bit confused. Sure, we used up a lot of RPs and innings last night, but Timlin, Paps, and Masterson should all be available for usual workloads tonight. Wouldn't mind having a corner IF option (Chris Carter or Jeff Bailey?) brought up instead. This could be just a one or two-day trip for Pauley until such a move happens, I suppose. Could also be possible that the Sox eventually bring up Josh Wilson and use Lowrie at 3B with Cora at SS and Wilson as the backup for the next couple weeks.

via graphics.boston.com

Paul Byrd coming to Boston.

Found this one out by following the livechat on MLBTR.com. 

Byrd has averaged just under 6 IP per start, or for those scoring at home, more than Clay Buchholz. Byrd could be available to start probably Thursday or Friday. Would it be that strange to see him start opposite Roy Halladay instead of Buch on Friday night?

From a baseball perspective, this makes sense. Byrd is a better option for right now than Buch. The Sox will send the Clevelands a PTBNL or cash later this year.

V.

Hmm.

Hmm again. No Papi, Coco leading off?

If Papi needs off, are we sure we couldn't do this?:

DP, Youks, Drew, Bay, Lowell, Lowrie, Ells, Tek, Crisp?

Everyone should feel free to submit their own "better-than-Tito's" lineup to start the thread. Hopefully Papi is just sitting because of Danks being LH. Speaking of which, Coco does have an .884 OPS vs. LHPs this season...still like my lineup better.

Don't know how welcome this will be; I've been watching Brandon Moss and Craig Hansen for the last couple/few years. They've definitely formed some impressions on me, and maybe these would be helpful to you in looking at your new players.

Best of luck to Moss and the Pirates. However, it's a little sad to see him in another uniform.

Brandon Moss. SoxProspects Profile. 

Defense:

Moss is a corner OF, as you well know, has always played a quality LF and RF when he's been up with the Sox. His arm is good enough to make runners think twice about going 1st to 3rd and going home on a shallow fly to RF or LF, though he's probably not going to draw Vlad Guerrero comparisons. He can play either corner well, in my opinion, and if Steven Pearce (a 1B-convert) is going to be out there with him, Moss should probably be given the harder corner in left field and prove himself capable. 

Offense:

Moss's ceiling never seemed that high to me. His upside is probably Trot Nixon circa 2001-2004 (OPS+: 128, 110, 149, 123). Nixon was never really given a chance to figure LHPs out at the ML-level, which is a choice the Pirates will have to make. Platoon him, and he'll probably hit RHPs well enough to start 130-140 games a year with solid production. Give him a chance against LHPs, and maybe he'll figure them out to the point of not being just a platoon OF. Despite my first sentence, he could hang around as a starting OF for the Pirates if given the opportunity. He has the tools to do so, even if he'll probably never be an All-Star.

Unfulfilled potential, thy name is Craig.

Craig Hansen. SoxProspects Profile.

Bad News First:

Hansen seems like the classic million dollar arm w/ ten cent head. He's never met a PA he couldn't turn into a 3-0 or 3-1 count, and he's prone to walks (4.91 per 9). The Sox have tried to straighten out his mechanics (which have been described as an injury waiting to happen), and in so doing straightened out his fastball and taken some bite off his slider. He was encouraged to resume his normal pitching motions recently. I've not often seen him throw his slider for strikes; it's a chase pitch for him most of the time, so his fastball command needs to be very good in order to be effective. I struggle to envision a scenario in which he's consistent enough to enjoy prolonged success in MLB.

The Good News:

The slider is a bonefide out-pitch when everything's going well. Consistency and command for Hansen could lead to him being a top 5 closer in the majors. He's flashed some of that potential with the Sox, and there are several outings in which he seemed to be the Sox best RP aside from Papelbon. He's probably the part the Sox sent to the Pirates that could be most missed, as his impact as a potential shutdown RP could be huge.

In Closing:

These two could be very useful cogs on the Pirates ML roster for the next several seasons. My feeling is that Moss will succeed, and Hansen will either become your best RP or be close to out of the game in the next couple seasons. I'll be rooting hard for both to succeed either way.

FIP is a metric by which pitchers are judged based on how they pitch. Luck, defense, etc. are intended to be eliminated by the use of this metric. It takes into account how well a pitcher strikes out hitters, controls walks, etc. It is roughly analogous to ERA, though a better measure of how a pitcher is throwing.

Sox Starters, Descending order by FIP:

Justin Masterson: 5.16 FIP v. 3.61 ERA

Tim Wakefield: 4.85 FIP v. 3.77 ERA

Bartolo Colon: 4.45 FIP v. 4.09 ERA

Clay Buchholz: 4.18 FIP v. 5.94 ERA

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 4.18 FIP v. 3.04 ERA

Jon Lester: 3.57 FIP v. 3.14 ERA

Josh Beckett: 3.39 FIP v. 4.15 ERA

Comments:

Beckett and Buch have been unlucky. Beckett's 4.7 K/BB should give him a leg up on the competition, but he's been allowing more HRs than he should be (1.09/9 IP) and his BABIP has been a bit higher (.324) than average (approx. .290-.300). I feel like even Buch's FIP is a bit low. He's been unlucky, but he also hasn't been great. He has, however, been better in terms of K/BB (1.91) than lucky Daisuke (1.47). This reinforced my feeling that Daisuke has actually been the harder one to watch on the mound. His % of runners LOB is about 10 higher than the league-average, and that walk rate (5.4 per 9) is downright scary. That particular house of cards could come crashing down any day now.

Masterson has also been very lucky. He's got similar problems to Daisuke, in that his LOB% is probably unsustainable. His HR rate is high, his BABIP is low (.232), and his K/BB makes me want to vomit (1.62). However, he's definitely still young, figuring it out, and his ability to get GBs has helped him out of jams. (I put him in the starter column, as the great majority of his innings are in that role)

Few pitchers match their FIP exactly, and Colon and Lester are good examples of pitchers who have been close enough to their FIP to not be deemed flukes in some way. Lester's FIP indicates that he's been a high-quality starter this season. And what have our eyes and traditional statistics told us? The same thing. Colon has looked like a league-average starter who's was reliable for us when pitching. His FIP indicates the same thing. By just the starters, Colon's K/BB is second-best among his teammates. Lester is actually 9th among 43 qualified AL starters in FIP.

Wakefield is the breaker of all rules, and to try to pin him down based on his FIP is probably pretty foolish. There are no comparisons for him, really. I'd say he might be a bit lucky, but to assume that in reality he's a 4.85 run pitcher seems wrong as well.

Sox Relievers, Descending order by FIP:

Mike Timlin: 4.41 FIP v. 5.34 ERA

Javy Lopez: 4.25 FIP v. 2.51 ERA

Hideki Okajima: 4.01 FIP v. 2.66 ERA

David Aardsma: 3.44 FIP v. 2.75 ERA

Manny Delcarmen: 3.34 FIP v. 4.05 ERA

Jonathan Papelbon: 1.94 FIP v. 2.05 ERA

Comments:

Paps is awesome. His FIP is actually better than last season, despite seeming more human than ever in the last two years. His K/BB is a strong 8.14, and he's done a better job keeping the ball in the park. MDC, similarly, has improved on his FIP from last season (3.85) by also doing a better job keeping the ball in the park and improving his walk rate. 

Oki? Well, the feeling that he would be something between last season and his horrendous start to this one is probably correct. I don't know that he's ever going to get back to how good he was last season; he was phenomenal. His BABIP (.294) is about right/average, and it has produced a somewhat predictable 1.34 WHIP. Surprisingly enough, his LOB% is higher than last season, which should shock most who've seen him let inherited runner after inherited runner score in tough situations this year.

Javy kind of sucks. I don't know how else to put it. 1.33 K/BB and a probably unsustainable LOB% of his own. Timlin, somewhat surprisingly, hasn't sucked as much as we might believe. To my own eyes, he's certainly pitched a lot better as of late, and could be more trustworthy than some (Lopez) in situations. Aardsma is kind of the enigma. His stunning ability to walk a lot of people made me believe his FIP would be higher than it is, but I suppose his second-best on the Sox K-rate (9.38/9 IP) has helped with that. He's also been very stingy with the longball, best on the Sox staff in that department. We'll see how it goes, but he's certainly worth keeping around for next season.

Just to be clear, I wasn't an opponent of the trade.

Sure, I'm going to miss Manny Ramirez pretty terribly, as I think most of us will. Whatever reports came out about his behavior, or phone calls, or anything else, Manny helped us immensely to two World Series wins in his time in Boston. There's nothing to really replace that, and most of his antics were of the entertaining, pain-free variety.

But we're in a new era now. I'd hesitate to call it the Jason Bay era, but it's definitely the no-Manny era. And one of the benefits of the trade (aside from acquiring a more than capable replacement) is going to be extra $$ to use if we want to in the offseason. And to some degree, we might need to wait until then to decide just how the trade went for the Sox. If that $$ (along with other $$ coming off the books, including Curt Schilling) is used towards someone who can help the Sox in a big way, then I'll be satisfied, as I'm sure most of you will as well.

So who're some of the big names available, in spots where we could use help? After all, we're pretty set at LF, RF, 1B, 2B, 3B and CL for at least the next season. CF is probably locked down as well, in addition to SS for better (Lowrie) or worse (Lugo?) So that leaves bullpen and starting pitching, with only one RP option seeming anything near desirable.

Brandon Lyon. 2008: 1.237 WHIP, 33 Ks in 43 2/3 IP

Don't look at me. I said "near" desirable. Lyon is not a classic power bullpen arm: he pitches to contact and doesn't exactly strike out a batter per inning. However, since he left the Sox (and I suppose one could make the connection: since he left the AL), he's been decent with his control and has forced hitters to beat him. Anyone who knows me knows that I've been pissed as hell this season about our RPs propensity to, if not walk a lot of guys, at least gift wrap 3-0 and 3-1 counts for hitters. This makes Lyon of at least marginal interest to me. Unfortunately, he's been the default closer for the D-Backs, and he'll no doubt be overrated because of his accumulation of (to date) 24 saves. However, if he's passed over enough, I wouldn't mind seeing the Sox sign him.

CC Sabathia. 2008: 1.157 WHIP, 166 Ks in 170 1/3 IP

The crown jewel of the 2008 free agent class, Sabathia will no doubt be sought after by most every team with the $$ to sign him. And the Sox do already have Beckett, Dice-BB, Lester, Buch?, and Wake? as possibilities/probables for the rotation next season. But I'll counter that thought with this quote: "Can it be considered an embarrassment of riches if I'm not embarrassed?"

Ben Sheets. 2008: 1.189 WHIP, 123 Ks in 146 1/3 IP

The risk-taking GM might get himself a gem in Sheets this offseason. I have no doubt that his injury history will scare some teams off, and he'll no doubt not be able to command a commitment beyond 3-4 years. When healthy, he's ace-quality. You'd have to think a team with SP depth in the minors will make a significant overture as soon as FA begins. Could it be the Sox?

Brad Penny. 2008: 1.599 WHIP, 47 Ks in 85 2/3 IP

Penny's season has been injury-filled, and those numbers above don't quite represent the pitcher he is. I have doubts that he'd translate to being an ace-quality pitcher in the AL East, but he could be a good #2-type, and his price could be low based upon the year he's had in 2008. Intriguing, if not entirely appetizing.

A.J. Burnett. 2008: 1.437 WHIP, 153 Ks in 151 2/3 IP

Burnett may or may not be a FA, and if he becomes one we may not want to go anywhere close. He'll only opt-out if he feels it would be to his financial advantage, and he's already due $36M over the next three seasons to complete a $55M contract. However, after an up-and-down season (the 1.437 WHIP isn't exactly typical) he could opt out, go somewhere to build value for a season, then look for another big contract after the 2009 season. Consider me semi-interested if that were the case.

.......

Any ideas  of your own of how to spend the extra $$? No doubt, some of it will go to a catcher (Tek or otherwise), but the Sox could definitely be big-time players in FA, and these are the type of guys we might spend that money on IMHO. I left some players off intentionally for different reasons related to signability/desirability, but I'm of course interested to see other suggestions than the ones I've listed above.

via d.yimg.com

Jason Bay, clearly contemplating a move to Boston, eh?

Great. Let's completely jump the gun anyway.

So. the possible parameters of a 3-way deal (I know, dirty):

Sox get: Bay, John Grabow

Marlins get: Manuel, CA$$$$$$H!!!! (Not Kevin)

Pirates get: $hitton of prospects. Jeremy Hermida/Josh Willingham

And of a 2-way deal with the Fish:

Sox get: Hermida/Willingham, some unagreed upon package of prospects in terms of # and type and ability.

Marlins get: CA$$$$$$$H!!!! (Not Kevin), Manuel

For the long-term, I almost want the latter. Hermida has room to improve in the power department (career .835 OPS away from spacious, in empty seats and acreage, Dolphin Stadium). Willingham is already pretty good, though he's missed time this year due to injury . Some of the prospects thrown out there are interesting as well.

If we want a great chance at winning this season, then we need the former. Bay wouldn't replace Manuel, but he'd come close, and he'd give us an improvement on the basepaths and outfield over him. John Grabow doesn't excite. Sue me.

The move (3-way) would also save us some money next season, ostensibly, as we'd be paying Bay 7.5M rather than shelling out 20M to Manuel. The Sox could try to extend Bay, or keep him as a placeholder before trying for Holliday or making another trade in the next couple seasons. I can almost get behind the Pirates deal, so long as the prospects (if any) involved on our end aren't Bowden, Masterson, Anderson, Lowrie, Bard (I really believe in him), Kalish, etc. That might be asking a lot, on my part.

I just re-read all that, and I seem so casual. In all honesty, even with his comments and behavior over the last couple weeks, this is still really difficult to talk about.

MLBTR

MLBTR

Two sentences? Okay.

Addition by addition.

Addition by subtraction.

I'd trust Farnsworth less than Craig Hansen in close situations if he were in the Sox bullpen.

Ignoring all these Manny rumors until something more substantial is reported. No Andruw Jones please.

Next season, our starting catcher is going to be Varitek or a trade-ee/free agent to be named later. Our farm options, in terms of the ones who might be immediately ready, aren't palatable for a couple of reasons. But how about a year or two (or three) down the line?

Pawtucket: George Kottaras (25) and Dusty Brown (26)

Kottaras is an offensive catching prospect. Nothing more (unfortunately) and nothing less. He hits well for a catcher (.811 OPS in 522 MiL games) and has a good amount of power. He's caught 13 of 62 attempted base stealers this season (21%), and his harder-to-measure defensive skills aren't said to be polished. At 25, he's probably as ready as ever for a try at the ML-level, but I doubt he'll hit well enough to make anyone forget he's not very good defensively. Brown has been a slightly better hitter this season, but is at .730 by OPS in his career. He's a bit better throwing out runners (28%), and has better defensive pedigree. When/if Wake retires, Brown would likely jump up and be the backup immediately.

Portland: Mark Wagner (24) and John Otness (26)

Wagner is a defensive catching prospect. 46% of runners thrown out this season, reported to have good catching skills otherwise (plate-blocking, pitch-blocking, etc.). He's a career .819 OPS hitter in the minors, but has struggled a bit in Portland (.758). Soxprospects (first link) has his most favorable comp as Brad Ausmus. Sounds right, all in all. Otness is basically filler at this point. Pretty old for AA, and he's got a decent OBP (.351) but a Lugo-like SLG (.348). Not great defensively.

Lancaster: Luis Exposito (21) and Jon Still (23)

Exposito might be our best all-around C prospect in the minors. His numbers against base stealers (23%) are hardly better than Kottaras, but again, according to Soxprospects.com, his catching tools are far superior. He has 17 HRs between two levels this season, in 303 ABs. The organization clearly thinks highly of Exposito. I take issue with their comp, however (Javy Lopez) as I don't think Javy was ever thought to possibly be a good defensive catcher (please correct me if my memory isn't right). Still's ML future, if he has one, is as a 1B/DH and third catcher. I highly doubt he makes it to the bigs even as a team's backup. Not good enough defensively, though his bat (.865 career OPS, .921 this season) has potential.

Everything below Lancaster is hard to hypothesize about at this point. Many are like Mark Wagner, but weaker offensively. Some certainly have higher potential, but very little experience and numbers for us to go on. If we go with an internal option in, say, 2010, it's likely Wagner would get the call and any offense would be considered a bonus. After that, Exposito is most likely, though he clearly needs refinement of his defensive and offensive skills. Luis definitely has the best chance of all our catching prospects, IMHO, at sticking as a starter in the bigs based on both his offensive and defensive potential. He is bilingual and reportedly (again, Soxprospects.com) very well-liked by his teammates.

Despite high hopes for those two, we could certainly use another potential starter in the system. Any of the Rangers young catchers would be good, and St. Louis's Bryan Anderson (speculation) could be available in the right deal, potentially.

ESPN (Olney) just reported: Casey Kotchman + Stephen Marek to the Braves.

In the very short-term, excellent for us. I can't forsee Teixeira being in tonight's lineup, and Kotchman won't be. In the less short-term, not great. Teixeira adds legitimacy to a lineup that aside from being annoying as crap really doesn't strike fear into anyone.

In the long-term? Well, we'll see if the Angels pony up and try to blow him away with an extension offer this season.