FanPost

Detroit Tigers Off-Season Transactions

This off-season presents an interesting case for the Tigers. If we stand pat and simply resign our key players and fill in with some complementary players, we stand a chance to repeat what happened this year. However, we also have the ability to sign a big name or two, theoretically increasing our chances of making it to and winning the world series. According to Mike Ilitch, we can't maintain a payroll like the Yankees or Red Sox, but he also said, "I want to be in a position to make one or two additions, and generally, they’re pretty big additions."

In this post, I'd like to address the possibilities of what the Tigers might decide to do. This won't simply be, "ZOMG GO AFTER CC AND WILSON AND REYES AND EVERYONE ELSE," but rather, it'll be an attempt to make a measured and semi-educated guess about what Dombrowski, Ilitch and Leyland may decide to do. So, what do I think the Tigers might do? Well, grab yourself a snack and some drinks, I've written a book for you. Take the leap of faith and follow me after the jump.

I'm going to take this post in steps to make it a bit easier to follow. We'll cover the players I feel are likely to just be let go, non-tendered, extended, etc. After this, we'll go position by position.

NOTE: I'll preface this work by saying that guessing the number of years and the money a player will get isn't my strong suit, but I'll make as best an attempt as I possibly can to be as logical and reasonable as I can be.

The goodbyes: This is a short list inhabited by only two players: Ordonez and Guillen. After the past two seasons of Guillen being hobbled by injury after injury, it's almost a certainty he won't be offered a contract by Detroit. From 2009 - 2011, he's only played in a total of 177 games, just barely over a full season. In those three seasons, for the sabermetrically inclined, he's put up a total of 0.2 fWAR. His slash over that time span is .253/.323/.735 (Avg/OBP/OPS). It's respectable, but not great. The caveat is that the bulk of that line comes from a fairly productive 2009 season. Simply put, Guillen's habit for finding the DL isn't one the Tigers can afford to put up with anymore. I expect that he'll find a minor league deal this off-season, but it won't be with Detroit.

Magglio is a similar story. Unlike Guillen, he has been a productive and somewhat valuable player over the past few seasons. He's shown stretches of his former greatness, but at times, he's also just looked...old. I fully believe that this was Maggs' last season, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the Tigers wait and see how his ankle injury heals and maybe sign him for a year to a "thank you for your contributions" contract. Personally, I don't think this would be a smart idea, it'd be a waste of a roster space. Yet I know what Ordonez has done for us over the years and we know how loyal Dombrowski can be to his players.

Non-Tenders: This is solely the realm of Brad Thomas and David Purcey. I don't think the Tigers will tender him a contract, but I could see them as being interested in signing him to a minor league deal. If this is what happens, don't expect to see him in the big leagues unless the Tigers bullpen is just that injury depleted or he completely overwhelms the minors. We all know what Purcey did. He's not coming back.

Free Agents: I'm separating this group from Guillen and Ordonez for one reason. While I personally believe the careers of those two are over, it also wouldn't be surprising to see some team take a chance on them for a year.

Now this list is a bit more sizable, including the likes of Brad Penny, Joel Zumaya, Ramon Santiago and Wilson Betemit.

Brad Penny is simply going to be let walk. There's no need to entertain notions of requesting his services another year. He did EXACTLY what he was signed to do this past off-season, but that doesn't mean the results warrant a second year.

Joel Zumaya is an interesting case. I feel as if the Tigers would feel they have so much time and money invested in him that they won't just let him go. I fully expect him to sign a minor league deal with every single incentive you can possibly think of to keep himself in shape and his arm healthy. He's said he wants to remain in Detroit and if true, a minor league contract is his best bet to returning to the majors.

Now Santiago is the situation in which I feel many of you will disagree with me. I think the Tigers should let him go. This season, Ramon earned $1.35 million. Re-signing him as a free agent is only going to cost more money and more years for a utility infielder when we should invest in. A .263/.323/.685 line from 2009-2011 does no make a great case for keeping him around. His UZR/150 also gives the impression of a player who's an average fielder at 2B and SS. Even though it has a small sample size warning attached, FanGraphs UZR/150 data would imply that Danny Worth is a VASTLY superior fielder at 2B. Simply, his skill set isn't hard to find and not one we have to spend millions of dollars on.

Finally, we come to Wilson Betemit. This was a tough one for me to decide on. If the Tigers go after Aramis Ramirez or Jose Reyes, then Betemit is no longer needed. However, if they do no go after Reyes or Ramirez, in this thin free agent market, I would expect to see Betemit brought back. Betemit's skill set is that of a above average to good hitter with a questionable glove at best as a -14.1 UZR/150 at 3B will attest. His ability to hit for some power is reason enough to warrant bringing him back. I'm thinking that if they do resign him, it will be simply as a stopgap until Nick Castellanos is ready, likely at the end of 2013. Something in the range of 2 years/$7-8 million seems about right.

Arbitration: I think this will be the year that Dombrowski finally has an arbitration case. The Tigers will likely want to keep him around for a season but not want to commit the money - or time, necessary for a multi-year contract. The allure of his status as a #1 draft pick still remains and I think that the Tigers would like to see what they have in Delmon over a full-season. His hitting lines are almost useless to quote as no one has any idea what his true ability is. Personally, I think his talent lies somewhere between his 2010 and 2011 campaigns. Nothing jaw dropping, but at least above average. If he goes to arbitration with the team, expect a salary somewhere in the range of $7.5-9 million.

Extensions: There are two candidates for extensions this offseason, one more likely than the other: Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello. Scherzer is our pitcher most likely to get an extension.This past season saw what Max is truly capable of, flashes of ace potential, but likely a 2 or 3 starter. In 2011, Max posted an 8.03 K/9 and a 2.58 (!!!) BB/9. However, he had a problem with the long ball with a 1.34 HR/9. He posted a 4.43 ERA and a 4.14 FIP, but if he can get his home run problem under control, you can likely see both of those numbers slide back down into the 3's. I think that an extension in the range of 4 years and $27-30 million seems like a good start. This covers his 3 years of arbitration and buys out a season of free agency.

Rick Porcello is quite the enigma. During the course of the 2011 season, he showed the promise of a #2 starter that many scouts saw in him, yet he also showed that perhaps his ceiling is that of a third starter, but likely a fourth. Porcello posted a career high 5.14 K/9 and a 2.27 (!!!!!!!!!) BB/9. Backing up his reputation as a ground-ball pitcher was his 0.89 HR/9. With an ERA of 4.75 and a FIP of 4.06, that FIP is the best we may ever see from him unless he gets an improved infield behind him. I see his off-season going two ways. One, is that he gets extended, somewhere in the range of 3 years and $22-24 million. More likely, the Tigers pick up his option and give him the season to show his worth. At the end of 2012, Porcello is either going to get extended or traded. He'll either finally prove his talent or frustrate management enough that they'll try and trade him off while he's still young and has potential value.

Now we reach the fun part of the post. We get past the team obligations and move onto team needs. We'll work our way around the infield first, then the outfield and finally come around to the pitchers. Let's begin.

Catcher: You might be asking, "Why do we need another catcher? We have Avila," well, that's exactly my point. We have Alex Avila and that's it. We've seen what catching seemingly every single game this year has done to him. Now that it's been revealed his knees (shocker) are bothering him and they're going to a doctor to have them examined, it's time to think about finding him a backup. Personally, I'm scared of only carrying Avila on the roster next year and having him get injured, there's no one to back him up. Martinez could catch, but if something were to happen, there's no way he can catch a significant portion of the season.

This leaves us with three options. First, resign Omir Santos and keep him on the 25 man roster. Second, find a trade partner willing to part with a moderately okay hitting backup with decent defense. Third, sign a free agent. In free agency, I think we have four options. Josh Bard is our first contestant. Below average with the bat and questionable behind the plate. I'd pass on bard. Second, Brian Schneider. Again, he's a liability with the bat, but his value comes strongly from his game calling and defensive ratings. I would definitely look into Schneider. Third is Jose Molina. Being a Molina, you know his game calling and defense is definitely worthwhile. He's also the only one of these 3 who can be considered anywhere near respectable when he bats. Once again, I'd take a chance on Molina. Finally, I have an interesting idea: Ryan Doumit. Per MLBTradeRumors, Pittsburgh is expected to decline his options for 2012 and 2013. I've been a fan of his for the past few years with absolutely no rational basis. He might be a little bit expensive for a backup, but he's an average to below average defensive catcher with an above average bat. He's the most tantalizing option out there, but also the most unlikely

What do the Tigers do?: Likely resign Omir Santos for a year at under a million dollars.

First Base: Nothing to see here folks, move along. Although, I admit, if Ilitch wants to bring in a big name player or two, I could see him doing something crazy (and stupid) such as making a play for Prince Fielder. Otherwise, we know who's manning first until at least 2015.

What do the Tigers do?: Nothing.

Second Base: This is one of three spots I could see a significant player being brought in. There are two options here in my mind. The first is Brandon Phillips. A career .272/.322/.756 hitter, Phillips provides both power and exceptional fielding at second base. He doesn't walk or strike out a ton and is good for about 20 HRs, 80 runs, 80 RBIs and 15-25 steals a season. In his career in Cincinnati, he has accumulated no less than 3.3 fWAR in a season, putting himself somewhere between a starter and a perennial all-star player.

The second player I have in mind is Aaron Hill. The former first round pick of Toronto has been inconsistent in his short career both wowing and frustrating management. This resulted in a trade to Arizona for the struggling Kelly Johnson this past season. A slightly above average fielder, Hill's (potential) value is all in his bat. He has a similar slash line compared to Phillips. His traditional counting stats are also in the same range, except he'll steal only about 5 bases a season.

The problem with both these players is the following: Both have a club option for 2012. Phillips' is more likely to be exercised, while a deal for a contract extension at a lower cost is more likely for Hill. If we can't get a shot at either of these two, expect a platoon of Raburn/Worth/Rhymes. I think Rhymes and Worth would be the best choice, personally

What do the Tigers do?: If Phillips is available, sign him whatever it takes, say, 5 years about $80 million. If Phillips is unavailable, accept the platoon and see if anything comes up at the trade deadline.

Shortstop: It's sign Reyes and move Peralta over to third or no move at all. Personally, I think this is one of the players Ilitch wants to sign. I don't know how I feel about it. He's an amazing player, but such an injury risk.

What do the Tigers do?: Make a run at Reyes. 6 years/$100 million (Honestly I don't know how to peg this one. His perceived worth is so volatile. I think $16 million a year is the starting point, but he won't get the Carl Crawford money he wants. Possibly 5 years/$100 million)

Third Base: This is an easy position. You either resign Betemit or take on Aramis Ramirez, but only if Jose Reyes is not signed by the team. Aramis Ramirez, for those who don't know, is Wilson with a much better bat. He's below average defensively, but perhaps not as bad as Betemit. Ramirez is a career .284/.342/.842 hitter. You can also expect 25 HRs, 80 runs, 85 RBIs and maybe a steal or two during the year. The problem is that Ramirez would cost too many years and would leave no place for Castellanos to play when he's ready. He also would not readily accept a reduced role, although he might be willing to DH part time with Victor.

What do the Tigers do?: If they sign Reyes, they'll slide Peralta over to third. If not, expect to see Betemit back at the aforementioned 2 years/$7-8million.

Outfield: Likely our three outfielders are going to be Delmon, Austin and Brennan. I think they'll stick with those three and then flesh out the outfield as the season goes on. It also wouldn't surprise me to see them go after a player such as Ryan Ludwick, Michael Cuddyer or Josh Willingham.

What do the Tigers do?: Stick with who we have and pick up a bat at the trade deadline if need be.

Starting PItching: This is one position that is really difficult to decide how things are going to play out. I feel as if the Tigers might be tempted to slot Jacob Turner into the rotation. Personally, I don't think he's ready to take on a full-time role. I say leave him in AAA until June-July and then assess his abilities at that time. I think this the other position besides shortstop that the Tigers might go crazy on. If the Tigers are feeling particularly randy this off-season, they might be tempted to go after C.C. Sabathia. I don't feel that'd be the best investment, but hey, it's not my money. No, my money is on C.J. Wilson. Wilson has had success over the past two seasons and I feel that with another good year could really solidify himself as a true ace. Wilson will strike out his fair share (8.3 K/9), but also walk a few (2.98 BB/9). However, he does NOT give up home runs (0.64 HR/9), even in the bandbox that is Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. The Tigers also would be willing to give Wilson somewhere around the $100million he wants.

The reason I believe the Tigers go after Wilson is Porcello. I believe Detroit go into the season hoping to be pleasantly surprised by Rick, but expecting less than stellar results. Personally, I feel as if 2012 is going to be Rick's make or break year with the Tigers. If they sign Wilson and Porcello tanks, you trade him off to a team willing to take a chance on a young, promising talent who may just need a change of scenery. This way, you don't have to spend next off-season searching for a pitcher in a not-too-exciting free agent class and you already have Turner to take his spot.

What do the Tigers do?: I think that they'll sign Wilson to a deal of around 5 years/$90million. As a long shot, if he's on the market, the Tigers may make a run at Roy Oswalt.

Relief Pitching: This is perhaps the Tigers greatest need in my mind besides second base, however I feel it's going to be ignored. I have absolutely no faith in Schlereth or Perry. The problem is, there isn't a whole lot out there. I think the only good option is Javier Lopez from the Giants. He strikes out a few, walks a decent amount but like Wilson, doesn't give up home runs. Over the past 2 seasons he's stranded close to 80% of runners. His ERA this past season was 2.72 with a FIP of 3.16. His 2010 season was just as good.

What do the Tigers do?: I expect to see this bullpen back in action. Maybe Brayan Villareal or Luis Marte come up, but I expect that pretty much it's going to be identical. Unfortunately. I am not inspired, but hope to be pleasantly surprised.

Closer: Once again, you may wonder why I have to address this, Jose is a good closer. He was perfect in save opportunities. I, however, do not think our fate should rest with Valverde. I don't view him as a "true" closer, but rather a very good reliever. I don't think we need to go over his numbers, we know what he did. The problem is that he's perhaps getting lucky as a .247 BABIP might suggest being about .04 points off of the league average. His strand rate was slightly up from his career averages, but nothing to be to concerned over. The biggest reason I feel that Valverde needs to be replaced is his ability to manage non-save situations. A closer is theoretically supposed to be your best reliever and your best reliever should be used in the highest leverage situations regardless of whether or not it's a save.

I propose that the Tigers go after Jonathan Papelbon. He would definitely be an expensive upgrade, but his ability to come in and shut down the game regardless of the situation would be a valuable asset to the Tigers. The problem is that I and I'm sure Dombrowski wouldn't enjoy paying $11-13million a season for a reliever.

What do the Tigers do?: Likely pick up Valverde's option and shop for a closer next season.

So, now that we've gone through the positions, how do I feel that next season's roster is going to look like? Well, dear reader, if you've made it this far that is, I won't leave you hanging. I'll go through the roster and give each players salary where known, and expected as need be:

C: Alex Avila (About $500,000-600,000)

1B: Miguel Cabrera ($21million)

2B: Ryan Raburn/Danny Worth ($2.1million and about $400,000 respectively)

3B: Jhonny Peralta ($5.5million)

SS: Jose Reyes ($18million)

LF: Delmon Young ($8million)

CF: Austin Jackson ($500,000) I can't quite interpret if he'll be super-two eligible or not

RF: Brennan Boesch ($500,000)

DH: Victor Martinez ($13million)

BENCH:

3B: Brandon Inge ($5.5million)

C: Omir Santos ($500,000) Not quite sure of a good estimate

Utility: Don Kelly ($500,000)

STARTING PITCHING

Justin Verlander ($20.1million)

C.J. Wilson ($18million)

Max Scherzer ($7million)

Doug Fister ($450,000)

Rick Porcello ($1.344million)

RELIEF PITCHING

Joaquin Benoit ($5.5million)

Al Alburquerque ($400,000)

Duane Below ($420,000)

Phil Coke ($1million)

Ryan Perry ($450,000)

David Pauley ($450,000)

CLOSER

Jose Valverde ($9million)

TOTAL ESTIMATED 2012 PAYROLL: $140,164,000

TOTAL 2011 PAYROLL: $106,953,000

If Mr. Ilitch really does want to sign a big name or two, increasing the payroll by about $20million should certainly be feasible. Playoff money should help a bit too. It's a little above the payroll range of 2008-2010. Under my plan, the Tigers would have about $20million coming off the books at the end of the year between Inge, Raburn, Young, Santos and Peralta. Raburn, however, is conditional upon whether the Tigers want to resign him as he'll be going into his final year of arbitration.

NOTE: I had initially forgotten Victor on the roster somehow. The payroll may seem high, but if Ilitch does get the one or two big names he was talking about, this is probably close to what it would have to look like. If you take off C.J. Wilson and sub in Jacob Turner or another Brad Penny type starter, expect the payroll to be in the $120-$125million range.

I apologize for the novel everyone, but I figured that if I was going to undertake something of this sort, I'd be as thorough as possible. I didn't want to do this half-way. Hopefully you guys find the work put into this worthwhile and respectable, even if you don't agree with all of the details.

Please feel free to point out any glaring grammar or math errors so I can fix them. I double checked all my work but there's still a chance I'm off.

SOURCES:

www.fangraphs.com

www.baseball-reference.com

www.mlbcontracts.blogspot.com

Beyond The Box Score's article on Catcher Defensive Ratings

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the <em>Bless You Boys</em> writing staff.