The Tigers' roster will grow some time after Sept. 1. If history is our guide, it will not grow by much. There will be no difference makers. All of the call-ups may not arrive on the same day.
Tigers manager Jim Leyland has often said no one sits around on his team. If there's not a compelling reason to make an addition when major league active rosters expand on Sept. 1, then a player wont' be added.
So, there wont be a lot of additions, and they'll be targeted to specific needs.
An important history lesson, via TigerDog1, by the way:
Last year's call ups: Turner, Dirks, Rhymes, added Marte (a surprise), activated Guillen and Al Al from DL, then Santos and Worth called up when MiLb season ended. They put Boesch on the 15 day DL a few days later.
2010: Weinhardt, St. Pierre, Sizemore, DFA'd Enrique Gonzalez
2009: Wilkin Ramirez, Dusty Ryan, Eddie Bonine, Casey Fien, Brent Dlugach, activated Bonderman from DL, called up Hollimon and put him on 60 day DL, Galarraga, Larish, Kelly. Quite a few that season.
They have called up a catcher, at least one pitcher, and an infielder every year that Leyland has been in Detroit. One season, the infielder was Hessman (3B)
The Mud Hens' and SeaWolves' seasons both end Sept. 3, by the way, and neither will be making a playoff run this year. So some of the additions may not join Detroit until then.
With that in mind, I'd make my annual analysis of the situation. Four or five players seem most likely to be added to the active roster. There are a few players that have interesting story lines who seem like longer shots. But it's hard to rule most of the eligible players out entirely.
So for all my thoughts, keep reading.
I ranked players on the 40-man roster from most likely to lease likely to be added to the active roster.
Most likely to be added (near 100%)
Bryan Holaday -- He's a catcher. He's on the 40-man roster. While this sort of breaks Leyland's rule about playing time, it does fit the need for an emergency catcher. He's already been called up once this year. He's as near a lock as I get.
Ryan Raburn -- You know him. You love him. He's your whipping boy. He's going to be back (though I guess not technically a Sept. 1 call-up, there's no room to bring him back until the rosters expand), this time spending most of his time in the outfield where he really ought to be. (Despite certain much-replayed home-run assists, he's really not any worse than most of Detroit's OF contingent. He's been hitting in Toledo. If he can continue to have hot Septembers as he had in the past, he could be an important addition. If he hits like earlier in the year. he's not going to be seeing much playing time (we hope).
Probably going to be added (50-75% chance)
Danny Worth -- Depending on Miguel Cabrera's health, he's either extremely essential or just kind of essential. But he does give the Tigers a little pinch run / defensive replacement flexibility, and they do like to bring him up any chance they get. I'm just not 100 percent on this one. But I'm close.
Don Kelly -- I'd expect the Tigers to find a way to add him to the 40-man roster to make this happen. There seems to be room to make it happen, as there are 22 pitchers on the roster and not all of them are must-keep.
Duane Below -- The left-hander probably never should have been sent down in the first place. Drew Smyly can fill his role in the bullpen if Doug Fister is healthy, so there appears to be no place for him despite the fact he spent most of his season in the MLB. But it's hard to picture the Tigers not bringing the long-man from Britton back. So I'll put him on the cusp with the category below.
It's hard to say (around 25-50% chance)
Al Alburquerque -- If he's healthy, the flame-throwing right-hander seems like a likely addition. However, he is working back from a significant elbow injury and already took a break to see the Tigers' doctors in Detroit. If he's really feeling 100 percent, it seems like a no brainer. But if he's not, then the conservative side of things might be better. So I think of him is as probably with an asterisk.
Luis Marte -- He had a 3.63 ERA in Detroit earlier this year. He's striking out 8.7 per nine innings in Toledo. However, he's also walking quite a few. He's one of a trio of somewhat similar pitchers who could get the call.
Bruce Rondon -- I previously thought the right-hander would get the call. I'm not so sure now. I keep forgetting about Luis Marte.
Avisail Garcia -- Lynn Henning seems certain he'll the outfielder will up. Chris Iott isn't as sure. Iott brings up a great point comparing the splits of Castellanos and Garcia. If Detroit is looking for a player who can hit right-handers, Garcia might not be it.
Luke Putkonen -- Has been called up repeatedly. I see no reason for a call-up, yet ...
Adam Wilk -- Same situation. The pair probably won't be called up, but it's possible either could just to add depth to the bullpen.
Shouldn't be added (less than 25% chance)
Nick Castellanos -- Again, you could make the argument his splits show he could be a useful addition. But he's got a ways to go still in playing right field. He's not really hitting for a lot of power. He's probably going to be taught a thing or two by MLB pitchers. It's far better to assign him to the Arizona Fall League and think about 2013 instead.
Andrew Oliver -- I'm pretty sure he won't be added, but I'm not completely confident about that. So hedging by bets, I'll bump Oliver's chances up slightly. He does relieve better than he starts, but there doesn't seem to be any place for him.
Daniel Schlereth -- Yes, he's back to pitching in minor-league games. No, I don't want to see him in Detroit any time soon.
Won't be added (near 0% chance)
Casey Crosby, Tyler Stohr, Matt Hoffman, Jose Ortega -- Actually if Kelly is added, I could see Ortega removed from the 40-man roster.
Hernan Perez -- His brief MLB debut was only due to the need to have an infielder on the active roster while one was away from the team for a few days.