A number of the potential answers to the question "who will manage the Tigers in 2014?" have no major league experience. Rick Renteria, Tim Wallach, Brad Ausmus, and Torey Lovullo have various experiences as minor league managers and major league coaches. But none has managed in the big leagues, let alone a team with a singular goal of a World Series championship. Mike Matheny shepherded the Cardinals to the World Series in only his sophomore season, and many look to this as an encouragement to go with youth. However Matheny experienced significant second-guessing during the World Series, so perhaps more seasoning would help.
So let's take a look who was the winning World Series manager for each season since the advent of the wild card in 1995, and see how youth compares to a gray beard. The first number following each manager is their total years of experience, and second is their years with that team.
2013 Boston Red Sox: John Farrell - 3 / 1
2012 San Francisco Giants: Bruce Bochy - 18 / 6
2011 St. Louis Cardinals: Tony LaRussa - 31 / 14
2010 San Francisco Giants: Bruce Bochy - 16 / 4
2009 New York Yankees: Joe Girardi - 3 /2
2008 Philadelphia Phillies: Charlie Manuel - 7 / 4
2007 Boston Red Sox: Terry Francona - 8 / 4
2006 St. Louis Cardinals: Tony LaRussa - 26 / 9
2005 Chicago White Sox: Ozzie Guillen - 2 / 2
2004 Boston Red Sox: Terry Francona - 5 / 1
2003 Florida Marlins: Jack McKeon - 13 / 1
2002 Anaheim Angels: Mike Scioscia - 3 / 3
2001 Arizona Diamondbacks: Bob Brenly - 1 / 1
2000 New York Yankees: Joe Torre - 20 / 5
1999 New York Yankees: Joe Torre - 19 / 4
1998 New York Yankees: Joe Torre - 18 / 3
1997 Florida Marlins: Jim Leyland - 12 / 1
1996 New York Yankees: Joe Torre - 16 / 1
1995 Atlanta Braves: Bobby Cox - 15 / 6
The first surprise is that many managers are repeat champions, including Joe Torre, Terry Francona, Tony LaRussa, and Bruce Bochy. Out of the 19 World Series, 10 were won by a manager who ended up with repeat titles. Similarly a majority of managers had over 10 years experience at the time of their championship, and the average is over 12 years. But the Tigers tried this approach with Jim Leyland, and Charlie Manuel is not on the radar.
So is there hope for the younger managers? The winning manager averaged less than four years of tenure with his team. Six, or more than 30%, were in their first year with their team including John Farrell this year.
My favorite in the race for Tigers' skipper is Torey Lovullo, but if this analysis has any merit it would be better to find someone with experience. The sample size is small, and Bob Brenly is proof that a rookie can be successful.
One possible conclusion of the data is that Ozzie Guillen should be the next manager and that can't possibly be the answer, can it? I would prefer to conclude that whomever they pick will go on to win multiple championships.
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