Detroit Tigers (76-53) at New York Mets (58-69)
Time/Place: 1:10 p.m., Citi Field
SB Nation blog: Amazin' Avenue
Pitching Matchup: RHP Rick Porcello (9-7, 4.52 ERA) vs. RHP Dillon Gee (9-8, 3.60 ERA)
Gee got off to a slow start this season, posting a 3-6 record and 5.68 ERA through May. Since then, he has been excellent, going 6-2 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He has somehow improved since the All-Star Break, putting up a 1.70 ERA in his last six starts. His home run troubles have all but disappeared too, having allowed four dingers in this span.
Gee has improved on his overall numbers from last season despite seeing his strikeout rate dip by over a full batter per nine innings. His fly ball rate has gone up to 37.8%, which plays well in spacious Citi Field. It's a big reason why he's 4-3 with a 2.21 ERA in 11 home starts this season. He has dominated right-handed hitters this season as well, holding them to a .242/.274/.368 line. Lefties have squared him up to the tune of a .293/.362/.471 line.
Porcello hasn't been sharp as of late, allowing 18 hits and eight runs in his last two starts. This is after a stretch where he posted a 2.33 ERA in his previous six starts dating back to July 1st. His loss in his last start was his first since late June, and the first start in which he has posted six or more strikeouts since June 2nd against the Baltimore Orioles.
With as dominant as Gee has been at home this season, it's hard to see the Tigers pulling off the road sweep unless Porcello reverts back to his July/early August form. Having Victor Martinez behind the plate again should help the offense, but the Mets may run wild on his arm.
The Mets scratch across enough runs against Porcello to back Gee to his 10th win of the year.