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Mathematical projections have their utility and limitations when it comes to predicting human performance on a baseball diamond, but for a fanbase doing its damnedest to look ahead after an awful 2015 season, the Detroit Tigers' 2016 Steamer projections offer a glimmer of hope.
Steamer, a projection algorithm created by Jared Cross, Dash Davidson, and Peter Rosenbloom, has quickly become one of the more popular baseball projection systems, in part because of its early release and ease of access. People far smarter than myself can point you towards the relative strength of Steamer compared to other systems like ZiPS and PECOTA, but this offers us an early chance at projecting 2016 performance with the roster as its stands.
To start, let's look at the current position players in the system. Steamer has both standard projections and per 600 plate appearances (termed Steamer600 on FanGraphs). Here are the standard ones for players still on the 40-man roster (sorry, Josh wilson).
| Name | PA | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | wRC+ | WAR |
| Miguel Cabrera | 613 | 34 | 1 | 27 | 87 | 94 | 2 | .314 | .398 | .534 | .932 | 152 | 4.2 |
| Ian Kinsler | 652 | 33 | 5 | 14 | 80 | 66 | 10 | .269 | .318 | .410 | .728 | 98 | 2.8 |
| J.D. Martinez | 558 | 28 | 2 | 25 | 71 | 81 | 4 | .273 | .330 | .486 | .816 | 119 | 2.3 |
| Nick Castellanos | 552 | 28 | 4 | 15 | 61 | 65 | 3 | .269 | .321 | .431 | .753 | 104 | 1.2 |
| James McCann | 304 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 29 | 31 | 2 | .255 | .291 | .371 | .663 | 79 | 1.2 |
| Anthony Gose | 552 | 21 | 6 | 8 | 60 | 50 | 27 | .246 | .311 | .355 | .666 | 83 | 1.0 |
| Alex Avila | 152 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 1 | .225 | .331 | .366 | .697 | 94 | 0.8 |
| Victor Martinez | 567 | 28 | 1 | 17 | 68 | 74 | 2 | .290 | .351 | .448 | .799 | 115 | 0.8 |
| Jose Iglesias | 86 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 3 | .279 | .326 | .363 | .689 | 89 | 0.3 |
| Dixon Machado | 310 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 26 | 5 | .241 | .293 | .321 | .614 | 68 | 0.3 |
| Tyler Collins | 299 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 32 | 33 | 5 | .251 | .307 | .395 | .702 | 91 | 0.2 |
| Rajai Davis | 357 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 42 | 33 | 20 | .255 | .301 | .384 | .686 | 86 | 0.2 |
| Wynton Bernard | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .271 | .311 | .375 | .687 | 87 | 0.0 |
| Bryan Holaday | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | .237 | .279 | .339 | .618 | 67 | 0.0 |
| Jefry Marte | 33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | .248 | .303 | .400 | .703 | 91 | 0.0 |
| Steven Moya | 61 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 1 | .243 | .277 | .432 | .709 | 90 | 0.0 |
| Andrew Romine | 223 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 18 | 8 | .239 | .291 | .309 | .600 | 64 | 0.0 |
Highlights!
- Man, Steamer does not like Jose Iglesias. Despite hitting over .300 last season, the All-Star shortstop is projected for just 0.3 WAR.
- If we're trying to find a replacement for Rajai Davis, Wynton Bernard may be a viable candidate. Steamer only projects him for seven plate appearances, but in their 600 PA projections, Bernard actually outperforms Davis.
- Dixon Machado's .293 on-base percentage would be tough to stomach over a full season.
- 1.2 WAR from Nick Castellanos? Sign me up.
- You don't necessarily expect any computer to project a 35+ homer season for anyone not named Mike Trout, but 25 dingers seems like a low bar for Miguel Cabrera and J.D. Martinez to clear.
Now, the pitchers.
| Name | W-L | ERA | SV | IP | HR | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | FIP | WAR |
| Justin Verlander | 12-11 | 3.78 | 0 | 206.0 | 26 | 1.25 | 7.46 | 2.58 | 4.09 | 2.5 |
| Anibal Sanchez | 9-8 | 3.85 | 0 | 147.0 | 18 | 1.24 | 7.68 | 2.54 | 3.91 | 2.1 |
| Daniel Norris | 7-8 | 4.29 | 0 | 123.0 | 16 | 1.38 | 7.53 | 3.72 | 4.47 | 1.0 |
| Matt Boyd | 7-7 | 4.3 | 0 | 115.0 | 18 | 1.32 | 6.98 | 2.78 | 4.6 | 0.7 |
| Kyle Lobstein | 6-7 | 4.62 | 0 | 100.0 | 12 | 1.44 | 5.2 | 3.06 | 4.66 | 0.6 |
| Randy Wolf | 5-5 | 4.44 | 0 | 81.0 | 10 | 1.38 | 6.27 | 3.04 | 4.5 | 0.6 |
| Bruce Rondon | 3-3 | 3.63 | 28 | 65.0 | 6 | 1.28 | 9.64 | 3.86 | 3.61 | 0.5 |
| Al Alburquerque | 2-2 | 3.94 | 1 | 45.0 | 4 | 1.35 | 8.76 | 4.02 | 3.89 | 0.2 |
| Blaine Hardy | 3-3 | 3.76 | 3 | 55.0 | 6 | 1.31 | 7.61 | 3.27 | 3.99 | 0.2 |
| Ian Krol | 1-1 | 3.85 | 0 | 25.0 | 3 | 1.34 | 8.43 | 3.77 | 4.02 | 0.1 |
| Jeff Ferrell | 1-1 | 4.13 | 0 | 20.0 | 3 | 1.32 | 6.55 | 2.64 | 4.3 | 0.0 |
| Michael Fulmer | 0-0 | 4.28 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1.34 | 6.99 | 2.95 | 4.33 | 0.0 |
| Tom Gorzelanny | 1-1 | 4.04 | 0 | 30.0 | 3 | 1.36 | 7.98 | 3.82 | 4.21 | 0.0 |
| Shane Greene | 0-0 | 3.86 | 0 | 10.0 | 1 | 1.28 | 6.83 | 2.35 | 4.02 | 0.0 |
| Guido Knudson | 0-1 | 4.14 | 0 | 10.0 | 1 | 1.38 | 7.74 | 3.82 | 4.24 | 0.0 |
| Angel Nesbitt | 0-1 | 4.48 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 1.44 | 6.65 | 3.78 | 4.56 | 0.0 |
| Kyle Ryan | 2-2 | 4.18 | 0 | 35.0 | 4 | 1.35 | 5.56 | 2.46 | 4.27 | 0.0 |
| Jose Valdez | 1-1 | 4.24 | 0 | 15.0 | 2 | 1.37 | 6.85 | 3.19 | 4.37 | 0.0 |
| Drew VerHagen | 2-2 | 4.09 | 0 | 40.0 | 4 | 1.39 | 5.98 | 3.05 | 4.22 | 0.0 |
| Alex Wilson | 3-3 | 4.12 | 6 | 65.0 | 8 | 1.35 | 6.36 | 2.8 | 4.31 | 0.0 |
| Neftali Feliz | 3-3 | 3.99 | 2 | 55 | 7 | 1.34 | 7.25 | 3.29 | 4.4 | -0.1 |
Highlights!
- I deleted Alfredo Simon's projection from the table. Sorry, not sorry.
- As expected, Justin Verlander is projected to be the Tigers' most valuable pitcher, but Steamer is high on Anibal Sanchez as well.
- I would take numbers like that from Matt Boyd. Daniel Norris? Hopefully he's a bit better.
- If Neftali Feliz is going to offer up below replacement level performance, he should not be tendered a contract.
- Bruce Rondon: lockdown closer.