FanPost

The "fire sale" you want isn't happening

Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

As of Tuesday, the Tigers are 3-7 over their last 10 games and sit 5.5 games back of streaking Cleveland Indians who have won six straight. The Tigers own the third worst record (32-37) in the entire AL. Only the records of the White Sox (31-37) and Athletics (31-39) are worse. Even the national media are suggesting sell-mode for Detroit. So naturally, Tigers fans are shouting from the roof tops, mountains, and...Twitter: "Fire Sale!" I am here to tell you, the "Fire Sale" is not going to happen, and you shouldn't want it happen.

First of all and most importantly, the Tigers, for various reason, only have three tradeable players: J.D. Martinez, Alex Avila, and Justin Wilson.

  • J.D. Martinez could bring a legit, top-100 prospect. Since 2014, J.D. has a .908 OPS. Among outfielders, that places him third in all of baseball behind Mike Trout and Bryce Harper (ninth overall). For comparison, when Yoenis Cespedes was dealt from the Tigers to the Mets, the return was soon-to-be top-100 prospect, Michael Fulmer. Cespedes comes in at #32 overall on that same OPS leaderboard behind guys like Corey Dickerson, Miguel Sano, and Michael Brantley.
  • Left-handed hitting catcher Alex Avila will be highly desired by teams competing for a playoff spot. Left-handed catchers with his 2017 numbers are hard to find. Among catchers with a minimum of 172 PA, Avila leads all of major league baseball with an OPS of 1.038. Avila should make his second career All-Star appearance this July.
  • Justin Wilson has been one of the elite left-handed relievers in 2017. Among lefties making a minimum of 15 relief appearances, Wilson's 1.037 WHIP places him fourth in all of baseball. Wilson also sports a 13.0 K/9. Adding to J-Will's value is the fact that he is under team control through the 2018 season. However, he has been somewhat shaky as of late: Over his last 9 IP, Wilson has allowed 11 hits, 6 walks, and 2 home runs. The Tigers need him to get back on track in order to capitalize on his highest value possible.

Now let's touch on some other Tigers who fans, journalists, and radio personalities have mentioned in terms as being dealt in this fictitious "fire sale" but are almost assuredly staying with the Tigers through the trade deadline.

  • Former Cy Young Ace Justin Verlander is likely to finish out 2017, and probably his career in Detroit. The issue with Verlander is the fact that he is being paid like an all-world pitcher ($28 million in each 2017, '18, and '19) and performing like and number-four or five starter (4.50 ERA, 1.488 WHIP). The Tigers would have to pay down far to much of his salary in order for a trade partner to be willing to take the remainder of his contract. Then, at that point, the return in a trade would be so underwhelming it would not make sense to make a deal. This is in addition to JV being one of the faces of the Tiger franchise and having a no-trade clause. He is not going anywhere anytime soon.
  • Slugger Miguel Cabrera will retire a Tiger. This is obvious to most but let's briefly explain the primary reason. Miggy is guaranteed $30 million per year from 2018 through 2021, then $32 million in 2022 and 2023. He will play the 2023 season at age 40. This contract in untradeable. We will also get into the current market for sluggers when we get to Justin Upton.
  • Victor Martinez's best years are well behind him. Considering his current, unknown health situation, his availability for the remainder of the season/career is up-in-the-air. Regardless, no American League team is taking a DH whom is owed $18 million in 2018 and has the worst slugging percentage of any cleanup hitter in the majors.
  • Third basemen Nicholas Castellanos is not becoming the player he was hyped to be. The breakout season many predicted this year has not came to fruition. He is one of, if not the worst defensive third basemen in the show. He has already committed 13 errors (two short of his season career high) and has posted a -22 Rtot/yr in 2017. Due to his horrid defense, Castellanos' bat will have to carry him throughout his career and right now it's not. He currently has an OBP under .300 and he is barely over .700 in the OPS category. He is under team control through 2019 but the value attached to him has diminished and is highly unlikely to be on the move.
  • Reliever Alex Wilson has been one of the more reliable bullpen arms over the past couple years. Unfortunately, he has been struggling mightily over the last four weeks to a tune of a 7.15 ERA and a 1.588 WHIP. Wilson has shown value in the past and is controllable through the 2019 season. However, it is unlikely a contender will deal for a struggling pitcher to help them get into the playoffs.
  • Left fielder Justin Upton is having a good year but the current market for sluggers and his current contract make him unlikely to be traded. Here is why: take a look at last offseason's free agent outcomes for the premier hitters: Edwin Encarnacion got three years and $60 million, Justin Turner got four years, $64 million, NL Home Run leader Chris Carter: one years, $3.5 million, Dexter Fowler: five years, $82.5 million. Jose Bautista: one year, $18.5 million. The one exception that signed for more money than currently owed to Upton after this season (over $88 million) was Yoenis Cespedes, who signed for four years at $110 million with the...Mets. Due to the unlikelihood that Upton could get $90+ million in free agency, he will not opt out of his current contract. Thus, no other team will want to take on the commitment they would be responsible if they were to acquire Upton.
  • Gold Glove second basemen Ian Kinsler is often mentioned as one of the most likely Tigers to be traded. Those people are wrong. Barring injury, there are very few teams in contention who are in need of a second basemen. (This roster grid from RosterResource.com is a great reference). The Brewers, Rays, and Angels are long-shot fits assuming they are buyers a month from now. Another thing working against a Kinsler trade is a no-trade clause and his demand for an extension to waive it.
  • A trade of slick fielding shortstop Jose Iglesias faces a similar roadblock that of a Kinsler trade: there are not many, if any, contenders in need of a shortstop...barring injury. His Gold Glove caliber defense must carry his career sub .700 OPS and his current .297 OBP. Most teams will not view Iglesias as an upgrade over their current in-house options.
  • Former closer, who complains about his role in the bullpen to the media, while getting shelled in said role, Francisco Rodriguez is not going anywhere. Tiger fans should hope Rodriguez rediscovers his elite changeup again for the next few weeks and the Tigers can flip him for a fringe prospect...or a bucket of sunflower seeds.
  • Tiger's bullpen ERA leader, Shane Greene is an interesting case. While he is currently having a career year, teams will ask their scouts and analytical departments: is this the real Shane Greene? In 2017, he has posted a 1.71 ERA but over the last 365 days his ERA is over four. Because Greene is controllable through the 2020 season, the Tigers may elect to hold on to him in hopes he can be an anchor in the bullpen for the next few years.

Lastly, let's say contract guarantees, no-trade clauses, and player skill level were all of no-concern. Is the Al Avila led front office really who the fans, and more importantly, the owner want making trades in effort to rebuild the franchise from the cellar of the American League? For this reason, if a fire sale actually was possible, you would not want it to happen due the lack of baseball savvy and shrewdness amongst individuals currently pulling the trigger on player transactions.

This front office has proven time and time again of their inferior ability acquire the right players. The list of players who hurt Al Avila's resume in his short time as General Manager is quite extensive: Mike Pelfery, Mark Lowe, Francisco Rodriguez, Mike Aviles, Jordan Zimmermann, and Casey McGehee. Lets not forget about the bucket of old, broken parts he stock piled in Toledo this year or trading away the organization's only major league caliber center fielder, Cameron Maybin, for a fringe prospect and then refusing to address the vacated position afterwards.

This front office has also done a horrendous job with the draft and player development. Outside of Christin Stewart and JaCoby Jones, the organization has no position player prospects worth mentioning. There are only two moves that Al Avila does deserve some credit for: acquiring Maybin in the first place and being a big part of signing J.D. Martinez to a minor league deal when released from Houston. As good as Avila's signing of J.D. has turned out, it does not overcome his failures. It would be a surprise if Al Avila, David Chadd, and this front office were granted another offseason and opportunity to begin a rebuild. In interviews, new team owner Chris Ilitch claims to have a "data-driven, analytical approach" and "cut from the same cloth" as his father. We shall see this winter.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the <em>Bless You Boys</em> writing staff.