FanPost

2018 40 Man Roster-Time For a Rule 5 Painful Calculated Gamble

I saw an interesting article today about the NYY Rule 5 eligible players and it got me thinking that the Tigers are in a unique spot to do something very bold and has probably NEVER been done in the history of the sport.

TIGERS SHOULD SELECT AND CARRY 4 RULE 5 PLAYERS

Here's my analysis of why and how 2018 could be a breakthrough year for restocking the very depleted and lowly rated Farm System (#25-#30 depending on the publication). The Tigers essentially carried 4 spots with a slew of different players ranging from 4A players to veterans who performed so poorly that the Tigers will have to pay them to go away.

THE ROSTER SLOTS TIGERS CARRIED:

Dixon Machado-He was out of options so the Tigers carried him for the entire year (with good reason) and he will either be playing SS or 2b for them in 2018 depending on what happens with Iglesias and Kinsler. His limited playing time was essentially the same course of action as a Rule 5 selection.

Jim Adduci, Alex Presley, Tyler Collins- these are all 4A players who have contributed this year but have no long term value for the team. The only one that I consider worthy of a roster spot next year is Alex Presley because he is exactly the type of player the Tigers should have been drafting long ago but Mr. I likes his big thundering bats so he signed slugger after slugger. The problem with that approach is you are left with a one-tool player and the analytics department destroys this type of player and as you can see, more and more teams are going this way. The Tigers up until recently had 5 one-tool players (JD, Upton, Miggy, VMART, Castellanos).

VMART- He was signed to a 4 year extension after he was coming off a huge year. However, as the analytics department will tell you, signing a 35 year old to a 4 year extension is a very bad idea and history will tell you that after age 34, the production falls and sometimes is just goes quickly. We all saw this with Magglio Ordonez. They gave him one more year at 10 million and that last year was awful. I loved him but that was such awful contract and for them to go that Well one more time, was just not a good move. VMART is not even a one-tool player anymore. He does not draw walks, he gets shifted so even a basehit is a hard thing for him to obtain and unless the pitcher is throwing under 93, he can't turn on a fastball to hit the occasional dinger. Comerica Park is probably the worst place for any aging power hitter but for him, its even worse because all his power (whatever that means today) is to the deepest part of the park.

The Tigers had a few a guys who scrambled to stay above .200 most of the year (McCann, Iglesias, Collins, Jones, Mahtook) and their veterans are mostly hanging around .260 such as Miggy, Castellanos, Kinsler which is why they are so inconsistent. Now, Mahtook, Iglesias and McCann have turned it around so their averages are at least around .250 and Mahtook .292 (Tiger of the Year) and now made a case to be the CF for 2018.

Depending on the outcome of this August 31 trade deadline, we could see Justin Verlander and Ian Kinsler both depart, the Tigers will be facing a 2018 season that will be laced with turnover. I will make a few assumptions in attempt to clearly state why the Tigers should take this Rule 5 Draft and make it an analytics dream scenario.

ASSUMPTIONS

Justin Verlander, Ian Kinsler, Victor Martinez and Annibal Sanchez will all NOT be back in 2018

ANNALYTICS TIME TO SHINE

If you noticed, Al Avila is way more into the analytics than Dave Dombrowski and he wants to (and has to) build the Farm System up that is seriously devoid of any Top 50 MLB talent and just recently added 3 to the top 100. Al Avila has already made trades with a more long term approach with trading for 18/19 year olds instead of players 1 year away or ready for MLB now. The two 18 year olds have already shown high upside potential so whether or not the Tigers can develop them or not, remains to be seen. The Tigers could have 4 available roster spots open for this long term approach and I am stating that these players (although not ready for prime-time) should possess a few skills that are ready for the MLB.

For example, if they scour the top 6 Farm Systems ; 1) NYY 2) Atlanta 3) Houston 4) Milwaukee 5) White Sox 6) LAD I am positive that they can find 4 players that have at least one skill that's major league ready. In fact, the type of OF Al Avila is looking for should be able to catch the ball, have PLUS speed and a PLUS arm. They can surely find two in the 100+ Rule 5 players that will be available from just these 6 organizations. They should be able to find one left handed 1b who has some power and projects to hit a lot of homers and has at least adequate fielding skills. They should be able to find at least one arm they can hide in the bullpen that has a PLUS arm and can be used in Long Relief.

The Tigers will most likely finish in the bottom ten with a shot at the bottom five which means they will get to choose early and since most do not select even one player, they have a unique and unprecedented chance to draft really young developmental type players who can't be protected because these organizations are so deep that they can't protect them all. Oakland just traded for players who are injured and took a huge gamble that they will come back and if they do, they will come out ahead big time. Its a risk that the Analytics Department scored as package they never could have landed if they were healthy. Think about the Tigers selecting an ARM coming off of TJ that the organization is so confident that no one will select him, that they are not even remotely worried about losing such a highly rated talent. Yankees have one those guys and who knows what the other 5 have in ways of highly talented guys coming off of an injury.

In conclusion, I rather see the Tigers gamble on 4 guys from top Farm Systems that is paramount to stealing at the cost of $200,000 (50k per player now they raised it from 25k) and take a chance in the one year that they can, to see if they can hit the lottery. Again, these area 18-23 year olds instead of 29-32 4A players that give the Tigers an influx of cheap talent that can really help them in 2020.

Below is the list of Yankees eligible for 2018 Rule 5 draft andthe 39 players selected in 2017.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/26105416//

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.mlb.com/210673438-2017-rule-5-drafts-top-3-picks-go-to-padres.amp.html

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the <em>Bless You Boys</em> writing staff.