FanPost

2019 -- is there reason for hope, part 2 -- the position players

This is part 2 of 3. Part 1 dealt with the rotation. As you might guess from the title, this part will deal with the position players.

Frankly, this is both the hardest and easiest place to see optimism. It is hard because the offense sucks. It is easiest because it is easier to improve over this year's terrible performance at the plate. Nevertheless, If the Tigers are going to be respectable next season, they are still going to need a lot of help from the pitching staff and the farm. Again, I'm not going to engage in magical thinking, like Isaac Paredes going all JD Martinez on Triple A and coming up to the Tigers as a power-hitting infielder. I mean, I think we all know that that is not going to happen until 2020. ;)

Recapping the 2018 season a month early, the Tigers have had average or above-average production from 3 positions -- RF, CF and SS (for completely opposite reasons). In both Center and at Short, the positive work has primarily been on the defensive end, while in Right, Castellanos is a great hitter who seems to try hard in the field. While Leonys Martin is gone, JaCoby Jones has been even better on defense, which creates a serious dilemma because his hitting is pretty much unplayable (at this point)

Position by position, here's my thoughts on next season.

1B -- Miguel Cabrera/John Hicks/Jim Adduci/Random vet. Miggy will probably play a lot at Designated Hitter, which is fine, both because he is getting very injury-prone and because he is not a plus fielder at first. Hicks, Adduci or a random veteran will play a lot in the field. I am confident that Miggy will hit, if healthy, although not at his former standards. Neither Hicks nor Adduci is a good first baseman defensively, but both are near-average MLB hitters. Despite Miggy's bat, 1B is a problem -- there is no one in the system likely to provide league average offense at 1B in 2019 unless you move Candelario or Castellanos to first, which creates other problems. Still, some move is likely necessary if Miggy spends his time at DH.

I should note that Josh Lester has had a good year at Double A, (really, a great August) and is only 24.

2B -- Niko Goodrum/Dawel Lugo/Random vet. Although he has cooled off towards the end of the season, hitting an abysmal .172/.265/.310 in August, Niko has been one of the Tigers' best offensive players. Until August, Goodrum appeared to have second base locked down for next season. Niko is a bat-first player at second, which is to say that he looks awful on defense. He also has hit far better when playing outfield or first base than he has at second. If Goodrum doesn't cut it, second base will go to a free agent or Dawel Lugo. Lugo has had his own struggles this season, primarily with the strike zone. His secondary skills collapsed this year, as his isolated slugging dropped to .081, while his walk rate declined from "rarely" to "never." It is almost as if the 2 things are related. Dawel is probably the best defensive option at second, showing good range and good hands in Toledo, but none of that matters if he can't hit a lot better than this. Lugo still has some potential but his window is closing fast.

SS -- Jose Iglesias/Willi Castro. Iglesias has been the Tigers' best position player in 2018, despite starting the season in an awful slump. Never a big hitter, both his OBP and SLG are his highest since 2015, and his defense is both real and spectacular. It is possible he gets traded, and maybe even likely (if he plays well in 2019), but if he doesn't, he is the Tigers' shortstop. If Iglesias is traded, the best internal option to replace him is Willi Castro, who is hitting .324/.366/.562 at Erie since the Tigers acquired him from Cleveland in the Leonys Martin deal. This is a complete reversal of his poor performance in Akron for Cleveland (.245/.303/.350). Only 21, Castro looks to be a good player, although he will never be Jose Iglesias on defense, and he almost certainly needs another year in the minors.

3B Jeimar Candelario/Ronny Rodriguez. Either Candy's slumping, or pitchers figured him out in June. Up to that point, he was crushing the ball (.886 OPS in April, .907 in May). Unlike many Tigers' players, however, Candy hits for power and takes some walks. On this team, his 93 OPS+ is way above average, and his defense is adequate, at least for now. I would not expect any changes. I hope he just pressed and lost his groove when Miggy went down for the year. If Candy struggles or is hurt, I would expect Ronny Rod to be the next option. After crushing the ball at Toledo, R-Rod has been dreadful in MLB. If you were in the mood for hope, he has been a little better the last 2 weeks, and his August numbers are downright adequate.

LF -- Cristin Stewart/Mikie Mahtook/JaCoby Jones/Michael Gerber/Victor Reyes. Can we first start by saying that Victor Reyes needs to spend next year at Toledo? Ok, thanks. Christin Stewart -- he can't play defense, he can't run, he won't hit .300, probably. He has, however, won or is in position to win, 3 consecutive Minor League Home Run titles (he is tied for the International League lead at 22 with Joey Meneses, a 26 year old Phillies prospect who really hadn't hit for power before this year -- and who plays at the IL's best home run hitter's park).

Stewart's assets: On-Base skills and power. Look at that, those are exactly the areas in which this year's team is truly deficient. Stewart's long-awaited arrival will finally answer the question -- is he a quality MLB power hitter, or the second coming of Mike Hessman? If Stewart can't hack it at the MLB level, and I believe he can, Left is up for grabs, with JaCoby's defense competing with Mikie Mahtook's wild inconsistency (1.000 OPS for August, don't ask what it was before then!) giving them the edge over Gerber, who hasn't hit in 2018 and Reyes. If the Tigers' offense is going to improve in 2018, Left Field is where it has to start.

CF -- JaCoby Jones/Jacob Robson/Mikie Mahtook/Daz Cameron/Michael Gerber/Victor Reyes. JaCoby Jones' defense has been so good, it has almost made up for his horrifying hitting. JaCoby's potential is still sometimes displayed (he has great speed, and packs a ton of power), but striking out 115 times before September 1, while walking only 19 times is terrible. He's looked overmatched since April 30, posting OPS's of .592, .546, .608 and .575 for the last 4 months. It all started so well!

As bad as Jones' hitting has been, his defense has made him the Tigers' second-highest WAR position player. He passes the eye test, the numbers test and the "holy shit, look at that play" test. Given what Stewart and Castellanos might look like in the outfield, maybe it doesn't matter if he hits -- someone has to catch some balls.

Mahtook isn't really a Centerfielder, but his bat has come back to life in August. Daz Cameron won't make the team in April, but has the potential to solve this problem.in June or July 2019. Of course, he strikes out even more than JaCoby (and at the Minor League Level).

Robson -- I think he is likely a 4th or 5th Outfielder, but what a season he's had, moving himself right to the edge of the Majors and clobbering Triple A pitching. Of course, he strikes out more than even Cameron.

Jones may improve slightly, Robson and/or Cameron may also help at the plate. One thing for certain -- Tiger Centerfielders will strike out a lot!

RF -- Nick Castellanos -- although Nick should probably be considering a move to 1B or DH, he is likely to be the RF next year. His bat is too good to remove from the otherwise anemic lineup. Hopefully, his second year in Right will be a lot better. If he is forced to move to DH, Robson, Gerber or Reyes are the likely candidates, so let's hope Nick improves on defense.

Catcher -- I've been avoiding this. McCann/Greiner/Hicks/Rodgers. Rodgers' second half of the season at Erie makes him the obvious catcher of the future, but that future isn't likely to begin at the beginning of 2019. McCann's 59 OPS+ and lack of framing skills won't cut it. On the plus side, he hit right-handed pitchers better than lefties this year, as his numbers against lefties collapsed.

McCann is another Tiger who stopped hitting in June, managing only a .344 OPS for that month (and never really recovered). Maybe he is hurt -- he can't really be this bad.

Other options aren't ideal. Hicks can hit, but isn't a great catcher, Greiner is unproven (although I like him and he's hit well in streaks) and Rodgers needs at least a few more months in the minors. Catcher might be a place for a free agent.

DH -- some combination of Cabrera, Castellanos and Stewart should keep the DH position filled.

Bench candidates: Rodriguez, Hicks, Greiner, Mahtook, Robson, Alcantara, Lugo, Castro,

The Tigers are likely to stay roughly the same at First, Short, Right, Third and Catcher. They are likely to improve at DH, LF and Second (no Machado). They are likely to be worse only in Center, with possible upside coming in the form of Robson and Cameron later in the year.

If they can sign a free agent catcher who would hit decently, or if Candelario shows that the first half of the season was the real Candy, the team hitting will be much better.

This won't be a good offensive team. They are likely to score fewer runs than average, maybe a lot fewer. But they almost have to be better than this year. That's room for optimism, right?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the <em>Bless You Boys</em> writing staff.