FanPost

Andrew's Offseason Plan

Overall Philosophy

It's time to begin the build part of the Detroit Tigers' rebuild, particularly at the major league level. After bottoming out in 2019, the Tigers need to start moving in the right direction by adding to their meager, yet somehow bloated, payroll. However, we must take a realistic and measured approach by factoring in both profitability and competitiveness. While many fans, myself included, may want to immediately add $100 million worth of players to the major league roster, it's better to, as Doc Brown said to Marty McFly, think fourth dimensionally.

What is a realistic payroll for a competitive Detroit Tigers' team? While it is impossible for someone in my position to know specifically, based on the recent past, $150 million for a team that is annually competing for division titles seems reasonable. For a team ready to compete for a World Series title, that number could probably jump to $175 million and the Tigers' organization would still see a healthy profit. But what about 2020? With the payroll currently sitting at about $90 million and the team coming off it's second worst season in history, is there room to add anything at all?

This is where we have to start thinking across multiple seasons. The free agent class in 2021 is weak. Additionally, the Tigers' will see $31 million come off the books at the end of next season -- just in time to sign, who exactly? Does it make financial and competitive sense to have a lot of money to spend when there are minimal assets to buy? No. So we need to start spending this year. With the addition of the right players, the Tigers could have a 2004-type season in 2020 and bring excitement and fans back to Comerica, all while making a decent profit. Additionally, over the next 4 seasons, the organization can add between $20 and $30 million in payroll per offseason and keep that precious balance between profitability and competitiveness.

  • 2020 - $120 million payroll, below average team.
  • 2021 - $120 million payroll (net change of zero after losing Zimmermann and Fielder contracts), average to competitive team (young pitching begins to arrive).
  • 2022 - $140 million payroll, very competitive team (young hitting begins to arrive and produce).
  • 2023 - $175 million payroll, great team.
  • 2024 - $175 million payroll, great team. Miggy's contract comes off the books after this season.

The method to the madness should be to stagger contracts so that every offseason a certain amount of money is coming off the payroll, and therefore a certain amount of money can be added, either through arbitration for our current prospects, or through additional free agent signings. And it all starts right now.

Arbitration-Eligible Players

  • Matthew Boyd: $6.4 million (yes)
  • Daniel Norris: $2.9 million (yes)
  • Michael Fulmer: $2.8 million (yes)
  • Blaine Hardy: $1.8 million (no)
  • John Hicks: $1.7 million (no)
  • JaCoby Jones: $1.4 million (yes)
  • Buck Farmer: $1.1 million (yes)
  • Drew VerHagen: $900,000 (no)
  • Daniel Stumpf: $800,000 (no)

Contract Options

None.

Pending Free Agens

Let them all go.

Free Agent Signings

  • Marcell Ozuna, LF: 5 years, $75 million. MLB Trade Rumors has Ozuna projected to the Giants for 3 years and $45 million, so 2 more years at the same AAV might convince him to come to Detroit. We have nobody with any kind of pop in the lineup, and left field was a particularly weak point of production in an already historically weak lineup. Last year, Ozuna hit 29 homers with an .800 OPS in 549 PA. He also had an 11.3% walk rate, and a 20.4% K rate. At just 29 years old next season, it's reasonable to assume that he will remain productive throughout the 5 years of the contract.
  • Eric Thames, 1B: 2 years, $12 million. Thames would be another good addition to the team at a position of need. He has good pop and a decent walk percentage, even if he does strike out too much. Still, with 25 HR and a .851 OPS in just 459 PA last year, he would be a huge upgrade to our lineup.
  • Drew Smyly, SP: 1 year, $3 million. Smyly was not good for the Rangers last year, but pitched better for the Phillies. He still struck out over a batter per inning, so there's a little something there. Smyly would basically serve as a stop-gap rotation piece until Fulmer returns, likely after the All-Star break, at which point Smyly could either be dealt or moved to the bullpen.
  • Gio Gonzalez, SP: 1 year, $3 million. Like Smyly, Gonzalez is another left-handed rotation insurance piece that could provide possible trade value at the deadline. Not much else to say here, but as we saw in 2019, you can never have enough starting pitching.

That's a total of $27 million added to the payroll for 2020, with Ozuna and Thames both providing significant upgrades to our lowly lineup. Smyly and Gonzalez may both turn out like Ross and Moore in 2019, or they could provide quality innings - it's a total crapshoot, but it seems worth a $6 million investment over a single year. These additions would bring the 2020 payroll to about $115 million, with a total of $37 million in expiring contracts for 2021.

Roster Construction

Here's how the lineup would look with the addition of Ozuna and Thames:

1. Jones, CF
2. Candelario, 3B
3. Ozuna, LF
4. Cabrera, DH
5. Thames, 1B
6. Goodrum, SS
7. Reyes, RF
8. H. Castro, 2B
9. Greiner/Rogers, C

I wish Demeritte would move to 2B, because I would rather play him regularly than Castro, and I think his bat plays much better at second than in right. I also want there to be a place for Demeritte on this team in 2021, and when I blow my entire wad of cash on Mookie Betts next offseason, Travis will be the odd man out. Overall, this lineup is a big improvement over last year, but it still has a long way to go.

The rotation would line up like this:

Boyd, LHP
Turnbull, RHP
Gonzalez, LHP
Zimmermann, RHP
Smyly, LHP

Other pitchers in the mix for the starting rotation would be Norris, Burrows, Alexander, and Fulmer when he returns. The most likely scenario, in my opinion, is that Zimmermann will be released when Fulmer is healthy, and that Norris, Burrows, and Alexander end up in some combination of the bullpen or Toledo rotation.

Speaking of the bullpen, I don't see a whole lot changing here from last year. The team could take a flier on a high-reward type of pitcher in a come back year, as this strategy has worked well for other teams occasionally, but it's so hard to project who that might be. They could also use the first pick in the rule 5 draft to get a promising arm.

The bench is a little better than last year, with Stewart and Demeritte moving out of the starting lineup. I honestly don't know what to do with Stewart, as he really doesn't have a position on this team. He could platoon with Ozuna, but I don't want to take Ozuna out of the lineup that often, as he will likely be our most productive hitter. Again, I would like this lineup so much better if Demeritte would switch back to 2B, where by all accounts he was quite good defensively. We may still need a third catcher, but preferably someone with some defensive versatility - it may not be a terrible idea to offer Hicks a minor league contract to come back. Other bench candidates would be Dixon, W. Castro, Lugo, and Stokes.

Conclusion

This team still sucks, but it sucks less than 2019. The lineup, bench, and rotation are all deeper, but we're still looking at a top 8 draft pick, which, let's be honest, isn't all that bad. I didn't make any trades because there's nobody whose value is high enough to trade, in my opinion. The important thing is signing Ozuna, who could be a key part to increasingly competitive teams in 2021 and beyond. Overall, we've managed to keep the payroll at an acceptable level, while also both building for the future and fielding a more competitive team in 2020. Like the 2004 team, I think this roster could push toward 70 wins next year. Unlike the 2004 team, there are actually a lot of promising players (especially pitchers) who are close to contributing to the major league club, and who could become real difference makers in 2022 and beyond.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the <em>Bless You Boys</em> writing staff.