FanPost

A way-too-early look at the 2020 Tigers roster

With the draft behind us and the heart of trade season looming in a few weeks, this is a good time to look ahead to the Tigers 26-man (don't forget that rosters expand starting next season) and 40-man rosters for 2020. Here are the key drivers for changes between now and next spring:

  • July trades
  • Free agents leaving
  • Players needing Rule 5 protection
  • Arbitration players who are tendered contracts (or not)
  • Other minor league players who warrant promotion
  • Free agents to fill day-to-day 2020 needs

July Trades

We are all assuming that Nicholas Castellanos and Shane Greene will be traded over the next month. While there's a case to be made either way, I'm going to go ahead and assume that Matthew Boyd gets traded as well. It appears that the return for Nick won't include anyone who will factor into the 40-man roster in the near future. We can probably also assume that Greene and Boyd each return at least one player on the current 40-man or needing Rule 5 protection next season -- if not two. I'm going to assume that we need to allocate three spots for them. (Ideally, they are traded together for a package with two quality 40-man players and lower non-40-man players.) We'll know soon enough.

Arbitration Decisions

There are a number of arbitration decisions that the team will need to make early in the off-season. For a rebuilding club, a player reaching arbitration means two things. First, they will begin to cost the team a little more in salary. The raise is well deserved and often below market rate, but they do start to cost a little more. Second, these players are inching their way towards free agency and offer less team control.

Michael Fulmer, Matthew Boyd, Daniel Norris, and Shane Greene qualify for arbitration again and will obviously be tendered contracts wherever they are playing. That leaves Daniel Stumpf, Buck Farmer, John Hicks, and Blaine Hardy. Stumpf, Farmer, and Hicks seem pretty certain to not be retained. My guess is all three guys find their way onto minor league deals with a good shot at being used at the MLB level during the season -- perhaps even with Detroit.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Blaine Hardy will be non-tendered as well. Last fall, we were all pretty surprised when Alex Wilson was not retained for 2019. (Actually, I asked a few people if Wilson might be non-tendered a few days earlier and didn't trust my instincts when I was told no. I'm sticking to my guns this time.) Hardy fits the same mold as Wilson did a year ago. He's quite useful on a major league staff, but most teams aren't going to go out of their way to make room for him. Competitive teams are aiming higher and rebuilding teams value control. That's why teams aren't clamoring to trade for him now. My guess is he'll sign a minor league deal with a very good chance he'll crack the major league roster -- just like Alex Wilson did.

Everyday Needs for 2020

This team does need to find some way to survive through next season by piecing together 26 guys who can survive on an ongoing basis. Looking through the roster...

  • Outfield: I have a hard time making a solid case for signing a free agent to factor into the outfield at all. They'll have Christin Stewart and JaCoby Jones and a whole collection of guys who can stand in.
  • Infield: There are so many players who can play multiple positions that I can't make a strong case for a veteran free agent there -- at least not yet. We'll see where we stand six months from now. There's certainly room for a veteran first baseman to help push the team in the direction of contention in the future, but I'm not sure that's a 2020 need.
  • Catcher: With only Jake Rogers, Grayson Greiner, and John Hicks available at the moment, I wouldn't mind seeing the team go out and grab three or four catchers on minor league deals going into spring training and opening up a competition for two major league spots. Hicks could easily be one of those guys if re-signed after being non-tendered. Should we plan on signing a major league free agent from the start? It's tough, but I don't think so.
  • Starting pitching: 2019 should prove to us that you can't just count to five starters and move on. Assuming Boyd is traded, that leaves Michael Fulmer who won't be 100% by Opening Day, Jordan Zimmermann and Daniel Norris who have their share of injury history, Spencer Turnbull, and newcomers Casey Mize and Matt Manning. There's a cadre of pitchers in need of Rule 5 protection who are currently starting as well. Still, I'm thinking one solid veteran. A second one, a swing-man perhaps, wouldn't be the worst thing if there's room.
  • Bullpen: This season's bullpen is certainly ready for a serious remodeling. The question is whether those new players will come as free agents or from within the organization.

Prospect Additions

It should go without saying the Casey Mize and Matt Manning will warrant addition to the 40-man roster even though they aren't Rule 5 eligible. Isaac Paredes also jumps out as a potential pre-Rule 5 eligible promotion to Detroit. There's an argument to be had that they might not get that spot until a few weeks into the season, but I'm going to gloss over that for the time being.

Here are the players that will be Rule 5 eligible currently in Toledo or Erie (per Roster Resource) with their most recent rankings on MLB Pipeline.

  • Daz Cameron (5), Beau Burrows (6), Kyle Funkhouser (10), Jake Rogers (11), Logan Shore (15), Jake Robson (16), Bryan Garcia (18), Danny Woodrow (19), Anthony Castro (21), John Schreiber (22), Derek Hill (23), Zac Houston (24), Jose Azocar (29)
  • Kody Eaves, Daniel Pinero, Tyler Alexander (added 7/3/19), Spencer Watkins, Joe Navilhon, Paul Voelker, Trent Szkutnik, Cam Gibson, A.J. Ladwig

Yes, the MLB Pipeline rankings are way out of date, but we can re-assess based on their updates and news from elsewhere. For now, it's a reasonably good place to start. I'm going to just assume that players are retained in that order. I thought about trying to tweak beyond that, but that's a substantial rabbit hole.

Making the Tough Calls

None of these decisions are made in a vacuum. They are all made keeping in mind how one decision might effect all of the others. It's a constant balancing act. The other tricky thing is that they aren't made with the timing that you would probably prefer. You need to protect players from the Rule 5 draft before you know who you might be able to pick yourself. And non-tender decisions happen even sooner. You don't know for sure which free agents will be available until the very end.

Here's how I go about putting all of this together.

Below is a table that puts all of these decisions in one place, regardless of timing. On the left side are all of the players who can be removed from the roster. We start with the four players who are free agents (the remaining free agents are on the 60-day IL and don't count against the 40-man already). They are followed by the players who are likely to be traded and then the guys who I think are most expendable on the roster. I've done the best I can to put them in order from easiest to lose to toughest.

The column on the right is players that can be added. We start with the most obvious decision -- adding Michael Fulmer as required during the off-season. Again, I've done the best I can to put the most important roster additions first and then on down the line.

As is the case with rebuilding clubs, this isn't just about prioritizing the better player and immediately cutting the weakest one. Age, player control, and future development all come into play. Protecting players from the Rule 5 draft comes in as well. So, where do you slot a guy like Isaac Paredes who doesn't require protection yet alongside others who do like Logan Shore and Jake Robson? Paredes is clearly more exciting long-term and closer to the majors, but Shore and Robson are both great examples of the type of player that teams look for in a Rule 5 pick.

At the top of this list, the decisions are really obvious. Yes, you use the spot opened by Jordy Mercer leaving in free agency to put Fulmer on the roster. Duh. Of course, you release a guy like Ryan Carpenter to make room for a guy that you just traded for in Boyd/Greene deals. A little lower, you release Austin Adams to make room for Casey Mize even though Mize doesn't need Rule 5 protection. Yeah, you make that move. Clearly.

Soon, things aren't as obvious. Do you non-tender Blaine Hardy so you can protect John Schreiber? Yeah, I think so. But, that isn't as obvious. Who gets bumped so you can make a Rule 5 pick? What if that ends up being Dawel Lugo? No, Lugo isn't setting the world on fire, but we've seen how often Rule 5 picks really work out. Maybe you don't make a Rule 5 pick -- or don't completely commit to holding on to them if you do.

Eventually, the decisions end up being much easier. There's no real pressure to protect a player who isn't in the Tigers Top-30 from the Rule 5 draft. And that's a good thing, because the player who gets bumped to make room is someone you don't want to lose.

Players to be Removed,
Most obvious first
Players to be Added
Most obvious first
MLB Free Agents -- 4 spots
Nicholas Castellanos (traded 7/31)
Gordon Beckham
Bobby Wilson (outrighted 7/30)
Jordy Mercer
Michael Fulmer (60-Day IL)
Beau Burrows
Kyle Funkhouser
Jake Rogers (added 7/30)
(Boyd not traded)
Shane Greene (traded 7/31)
Trade return: Travis Demeritte (added on 8/X)
Trade return #2
Ryan Carpenter Trade return #3
Zac Reininger Vet Starting Pitcher
Drew VerHagen (selected 7/24/19) Grayson Greiner (60-day IL 7/24/19)
Austin Adams (outrighted 7/10/19
Trevor Rosenthal (selected 7/15/19)
Casey Mize
José Manuel Fernandez
Tyler Alexander (transactions on 7/3/19)
Matt Manning
Jose Cisnero Logan Shore
Daniel Stumpf (arb) Jake Robson
John Hicks (arb) Bryan Garcia
Buck Farmer (arb)
(should have been much lower)
Danny Woodrow
Ronny Rodriguez Anthony Castro
Blaine Hardy (arb) John Schreiber
Victor Reyes Isaac Paredes
Dawel Lugo 2019 Rule 5 pick
Sergio Alcantara Derek Hill
Harold Castro Zac Houston
Sandy Baez Jose Azocar
Eduardo Jiménez Vet Reliever
Vet Catcher

Reactions

So, where do we go from here?

  • Right off the bat, this highlights the need to evaluate all of the players who are currently on the extended roster. I'd want to make them all duke it out for spots on next season's roster. The organization's view of these players needs to be finalized before the end of this season. The last few months of the season are going to be critical.
  • But, with all that in mind, it's also pretty clear that the Tigers 40-man roster will certainly include the bold-face names in the organization who are ready (Mize, Manning, Rogers, etc). There's more than enough room. Below them will be a lot of fringe MLB types trying to prove they have a future beyond 2020. Maybe none of them move forward at all, but I'd say it's more likely there's another Niko Goodrum or Spencer Turnbull in that bunch.
  • Unlike coming into 2019, I'm not bending over backwards to find veteran players just to get through the season. Yes, there's certainly a need at starting pitcher and there's an argument to be made for catching help. But I'm certainly not looking to make room for the next Jordy Mercer.

Additions:

  • It isn't that crazy that the Tigers could have the second pick in the Rule 5 draft... and not use it. They'd have to be convinced that the guy they could pick would be better than the guy they risk losing by enough that he would be worth a 26-man spot all season.
  • Depending on who won't be added to the roster, it might be worth dangling one or two of them in trades. Maybe they are worth a similar guy in who is a year or two behind them. Maybe one of them is worth a competitive balance draft pick.

Where would you draw the line? Who is the last player to be added to the roster? Do you prioritize players added or removed in a meaningfully different order than I did?

Let me know in the comments.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the <em>Bless You Boys</em> writing staff.