The Tiger’s season is coming to an end and with all the enthusiasm and potential upgrades coming, it made me think how Spencer Turnbull’s injury will change some things this off-season. Based on what he accomplished this season and the way he was throwing, he was a solid number 3 or 4 starter. Additionally, he along with Manning were possible trade pieces to get another big bat or a SS. Now, Al Avila will have to think twice about if he will trade some of his young pitching for a bat or a SS. Sure, there are SS’s available in this off-season but the top few are going to very pricey and no matter how many times Chris Illitch says he is going to spend, I just do not see this guy spending 250 to 300 million.
Looking at the 2022 Starting Pitchers:
Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal are locks!
Tyler Alexander deserves a shot, Willy Peralta deserves a contract to come back.
Big Question Marks: Kyle Funkhouser and Michael Fulmer-Can either start? Do either want to start?
Matthew Boyd was already a question mark coming into the season and the surgery has made it even more difficult for the Tiger’s to evaluate. The staff loves him and he’s a great club house guy but have they seen enough?
Minor League Hopefuls: Joey Wentz and Alex Faedo-both coming off injuries and the off-season will be a light one for both. Even if they both come back healthy in 2022, are they really going to be given a shot to start? I think both have to spend another year at AAA and build up their arm strength.
I have written here before that I strongly belive Justin Verlander is coming back, wants to come back and the Tigers want him back. I think this is a match and I think they can get him on a 3 year deal and 50 or 60 million. He gets to retire a Tiger and wouldn’t that be awesome if he came back and they won the World Series in 2024? However, if JV gets a QO from the Houston Astros, that would make things much more difficult and he might just go back for one more year since Houston still has a powerful team. CBA might eliminate QO’s and compensation so this is still an uncertainty.
Free Agent Pitchers:
Marcus Semien, Robbie Ray, Max Scherzer, Eduardo Rodriguez, Marcus Stroman, Kevin Gausman, Noah Syndegarrd, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander
Tiger’s Committed Payroll 2022 is under 45 million and 32 million of that is Miggy.
The Tiger’s have so much money that they could give 2 or 3 pitchers 30 million a year and still have plenty of money to spend. Max Scherzer is staying in LA but not the Dodgers. The LA Angels will give Mad Max a 4 year 160 million contract and try to win it all with Trout and Ohtahni. I can’t see Clayton Kershaw leaving the Dodgers but the Yankees could make a run at him. Noah Syndegard is a boom or bust signing because of injuries but the Tiger’s could make a run at him and get him on a short contract. The big Comerica Park does have some intrigue for pitchers coming off of injury. Robbie Ray we had once and traded him before he ascended up but I like his game and I would rather have him than Boyd any day of the week. Marcus Stroman, Kevin Gausman, Eduardo Rodriguez are all interesting possible additions.
The Spencer Turnbull injury created a need for an additional pitcher that they most likely needed to pursue and now that the managment has repeatly stated they will spend, we can only sit back and see what that truly means. A wish list would be crazy because it will never happen so I will choose to look at the most likely scenario for the Tigers pursuit in free agency. I see a Justin Verlander return IF IF IF he doesn’t get a QO. If he gets a QO, Tigers would lose a high draft pick because they are OUT OF THE BOTTOM 10!! They will probably finish 12th so signing FA’s will have consequences. UNLESS the CBA changes things regarding signing FA’s. Personally, I hate the current system. They penalize teams in the middle of the pack trying to spend more and get better. I like the NFL system where they reward you extra draft picks if you lose quality Free Agent. I think teams that sign FA’s should not lose picks and just reward teams that lose the player a sandwich pick between the 1st and 2nd round or 2nd and 3rd round depending on the tier of player. Additionally, reward them with more international money (of course this might be moot because they may have an international draft created by the time the new CBA gets rolled out).
Lastly, Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene seem likely to start the season in the MLB because they both know they have a legitimate shot at it and will work extremely hard in the off-season to get their bodies ready for the spring. Al Avila said there woudl be no service time manipulation but if either do not come out of the gate swinging, they could end up at AAA to start the year. I think Al Avila secretly wants them to be just "okay" so he can have an excuse to send them back down but he will never admit it. The dark house and extreme underdog is of course is Ryan Kreidler. What if he pounds out an Akil Baddoo spring training?
Who is gone? Niko Goodrum, Jose Urena, Julio Tehran, Ian Krol, Derrick Hollland to start the list and I am sure there are more that will not be re-signed even for a AAA depth spot.
Good Off-Season-signing a top SP, a depth SP, Short Stop Bad Off-Season-Willie Castro is our starting SS or 2b in 2022
The Tigers could add 100 million dollars per season for the next three years for a total of 300 million this off-season but I am thinking they spend 40 to 50 million per season for a total of 120 to 150 million over the next three years. I am doubtful they give anyone over a 3 year contract unless they actually land a big SS which will cost them 250 million over the next 6 to 8 years.