As of Sunday, the owners and the MLB Player’s Association still seem bound for a lockout of players and a total halt of transactions and activity at midnight on December 1. That’s a lot of pressure on one’s holiday shopping, and several teams went on a pre-emptive spree over the weekend.
The biggest move came out of nowhere, as the Texas Rangers kicked off the free agent market for shortstops by inking Marcus Semien to a seven-year, $175 million pact that will make the former Oakland Athletic’s shortstop, and Toronto Blue Jays’ second baseman, a Ranger through 2028.
The 31-year-old Semien posted enormous full season campaigns in 2019 and 2021, averaging about seven WAR by FanGraphs’ calculation. His defensive skills translated well to the second base position in 2021 with the Blue Jays, but seems bound to move back to the shortstop position in 2022. Unless they go and sign Texas native Trevor Story as well.
The Rangers followed that up Sunday night by apparently agreeing with former Colorado Rockies starter, and one of our more popular free agent targets here in Detroit, Jon Gray. Per Jeff Passan of ESPN, the deal is for four years, though the final terms were not available as of this writing.
I am hearing that Semien is willing to continue at 2B if Rangers sign another SS. As you know, they've met with Trevor Story and that might be the best financial fit at this moment. https://t.co/n6i3tv5t8L— Evan Grant (@Evan_P_Grant) November 28, 2021
Jon Gray’s deal with Texas is for four years, sources tell ESPN.— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 29, 2021
Good for Marcus Semien as far as getting paid in full and beyond. Gray should be a nice addition as well. However it’s a bit odd what the Rangers are doing here. They won 60 games in 2021. Their farm system is flush with good depth pieces, but there isn’t a blue-chipper in sight. A team that appears years away from contention thought signing the oldest available free agent infielder into his late 30’s was the move. Presumably there’s more coming, and the Rangers could theoretically spend another $100 million this offseason if they want to, but whether that means Trevor Story or not, it’s still extremely difficult to see them competing in the AL West any time soon.
It was only a few minutes after the Semien bombshell when the Rangers made their next signing, but in this case it was just for a part-time corner outfielder in veteran Kole Calhoun. Between Semien, Gray, and Calhoun, that’s a big day, but still leaves the Rangers a long way from looking like a likely contender. FanGraphs has a breakdown of the Semien deal for your reading pleasure. Good luck, Rangers. At least ownership there is spending money.
Rangers in agreement with free-agent OF Kole Calhoun, source tells @TheAthletic.— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) November 28, 2021
Another little talked about team got into the mix on Sunday, as the Miami Marlins signed former Tigers outfielder Avisail Garcia to a four-year pact. The 30-year-old outfielder is now five years removed from his 4.2 fWAR 2017 campaign, and that production proved unsustainable. Over the last few seasons he’s been roughly a league average performer, so the Marlins paid in full here to lure Garcia down to Miami. They also went on to ink starter Sandy Alcantara to an extension, which was generally expected to happen.
They’re also rumored to be fishing for another big catch, with Miami native Nick Castellanos posited as a possible next target. However, the San Francisco Giants and Philadelphia Phillies are much more attractive landing spots and also rumored to be in on Castellanos in anticipation of the DH coming to the National League next season.
Don’t get to say this often, but big day for the Marlins. Total of $109M in commitments to free-agent outfielder Avisail Garcia (4 yrs., $53M) and right-hander Sandy Alcantara (5 yrs., $56M, per @CraigMish).— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) November 29, 2021
Outfielder Avisail Garcia and the Miami Marlins are in agreement on a four-year, $53 million, a source tells ESPN. @CraigMish was on top of it.— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 28, 2021
Marlins are another team with some money to spend, and they shore up an outfield that has been a big deficit in recent seasons.
The next in line was former two-time Cy Young winner, Corey Kluber, and it was the Tampa Bay Rays who pulled the trigger. On Sunday they inked the 35-year-old Kluber to a one-year deal with a guaranteed base salary of $8 million, but with incentives that could add up to $5 million more for a possible total value of $13 million.
In keeping with Rays tradition, they avoid any long-term commitments here, and because they’re the Rays, presumably they’ve got a plan to get the most out of Kluber. The veteran right-hander’s fastball is seriously diminished from his prime years, but he started throwing his curveball and changeup more in 2021 and gave the New York Yankees 80 innings of quality mid-rotation production.
Kluber deal with #Rays could be worth up to $13 million if he stays healthy and pitches a full season. Guaranteed salary, as @Joelsherman1 1st reported, is $8 million— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) November 28, 2021
The next big deal wasn’t a free agent signing, but rather an extension. The Minnesota Twins locked up their oft-injured, but extremely talented, center fielder, Byron Buxton on a seven-year extension worth $100 million. The deal has a full no-trade clause for Buxton, and will keep him in Minnesota until his mid-30’s. In just 61 games played in 2021, Buxton hit 19 home runs, posted a 169 wRC+, all while providing his usual brilliant defense in center field.
Buxton deal with Twins, per source: Seven years, $100M. Full no-trade clause.— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) November 28, 2021
Finally, around 9 p.m. ET on Sunday night, one more big deal was announced. The Toronto Blue Jays, who already watched Steven Matz sign with the St. Louis Cardinals, and may lose ace Robbie Ray in free agency, made a big move of their own. They inked veteran right-hander Kevin Gausman to a five-year deal worth $110 million.
The soon-to-be 31-year-old posted the best season of his career with the San Francisco Giants in 2021, after breaking out during the shortened 2020 season. He put up 192 innings this year, with an ERA of 2.81 and a 3.00 FIP. That’s not a bad price up front for a Blue Jays team that desperately needs to get its pitching right while the likes of Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., Bo Bichette, and other young talents are still cheap. Adding Gausman now has them in pretty good shape.
We’ve gotta say, the Tigers’ deal for Eduardo Rodriguez is looking better and better all the time.
Kevin Gausman, 30, is coming off a superb 2021 in which he struck out 227 in 192 innings with a 2.81 ERA. His market was hot, and he winds up with a Toronto team that already has Jose Berrios, Alek Manoah and Hyun-Jin Ryu in its rotation. The Blue Jays are built to win now.— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 29, 2021
Meanwhile, the Angels, still in dire need of rotation help after adding Noah Syndergaard on a one-year deal, picked up another inexpensive but decent option, who also plays a bit of outfield.
Free-agent pitcher Michael Lorenzen and the Los Angeles Angels are in agreement on a one-year deal worth around $7 million, pending physical, according to sources familiar with the situation. Lorenzen is going to be in the Angels’ rotation.— Robert Murray (@ByRobertMurray) November 29, 2021
What does this all mean? Well, let’s just say the consensus is that Monday will be wild. Certainly there are probably teams and agents that would prefer to wait for the new CBA. However, for players, the idea of waiting until February or even March to find their new team, forcing their spouse to move the household on short notice while they hurry off to a new camp, is probably a pretty un-appealing option. Add to the mix a Mets owner in Steve Cohen who has vowed to do everything possible to make his club a winner, and now a Texas Rangers’ team with plenty of payroll space and an apparent fit of madness under way, and you have the recipe for a wild ride over the next few days.
Expect some holdouts, as the top free agents remaining may be willing to wait, but you can also expect a huge flurry of signings as teams and players rush to get deals done in time for their medical evaluations to be completed in advance of the expected lockout.
Sure seems like the industry has decided that today is the soft/informal deadline to get deals done to ensure physicals and whatnot are all completed prior to December 1.— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) November 28, 2021
Max Scherzer, at least, is rumored to be set to make his final decision prior to the lockout. So look for an announcement on him on Monday. The Mets apparently have a huge offer on the table. Hard to imagine either team in LA offering this much.
The Mets have a multi-year deal offer of more than $40 million on the table for Max Scherzer; might be $45 million. So we could be looking at a possible 2-year, $90 million deal. Is it enough to sway Max Scherzer back East?— Doug Rush (@TheDougRush) November 29, 2021
In case you missed it last week, here is Eduardo Rodriguez’s introductory press conference with Detroit media. General manager Al Avila and manager A.J. Hinch had a few interesting comments, apart from all the usual feel-good fare.
Matt Boyd’s good works
The next two days are going to be very interesting in the life of Tigers’ starter Matt Boyd. As he rehabs from surgery on a tendon in his elbow, not a ligament, that will keep him out of action until at least May, the lefty’s future in Detroit is hanging by a thread. Estimated to receive $7.5M in arbitration, and with those arbitration figures due to be exchanged by Wednesday, the Boyd’s will presumably be looking for a new home shortly. The Tigers may have considered a short, inexpensive deal to keep Boyd around and see how he recovers from the surgery, but they’re not going to offer him that arbitration figure, and it sounds like the two parties aren’t going to find common ground here.
Can confirm: Barring a last-minute change, Tigers will non-tender Matthew Boyd by Tuesday night's deadline. The two sides talked about a deal but couldn't reach an agreement. @cmccosky first.— Jason Beck (@beckjason) November 29, 2021
In the meantime, Boyd and his wife Ashley, who runs the foundation, continue their good work in building safe houses in Uganda to combat child trafficking. Boyd announced last month that the project had completed three more homes on land they own in the country. The big lefty has been a bit of a frustration in terms of his performance for the Tigers, but in more important matters, the Boyds appear to be most excellent people. We’ll miss them and wish them well if this is indeed the end.
Around the horn
The wonderful David Laurila has another fascinating pitching interview at FanGraphs, this time with Milwaukee Brewers prospect, and part-time knuckleballer, J.T. Hintzen. Also at FanGraphs, Hall of Fame guru, Jay Jaffe, explores the Hall of Fame case for Todd Helton.
Mike Axisa of CBS Sports MLB, takes a look at the Seattle Mariners deal to acquire second baseman Adam Frazier from the San Diego Padres. And with the Tampa Bay Rays signing shortstop Wander Franco to a huge long-term extension, R.J. Anderson takes a look at which of the best young players in the game could be next, and also what the pressure of the lockout means for the game’s free agents.
Meanwhile our former managing editor Kurt Mensching has a post over at Motor City Bengals discussing Chris Ilitch, and the potential for him to build or damage his own legacy as an owner this offseason.
Baseball is awesome
The first blast of snow has now swept the Great Lakes region, sending us lurching toward the hibernation portion of our calendar. Right about this time every year, I need to see some baseball and reflect on the season past. Kudos to the creator for this fine highlight reel from 2021 to help warm you up.