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2023 40 Man Roster Decisions

By on Sep 12, 2022, 10:29pm EDT +

I am going to try and give a complete detail of the 40 man roster status as of 9-12-22, and who I see as potential non-tender players, and who I see as likely players to be added to the 40 man roster prior to the Rule 5 Draft.

40 Man Roster as of 9/12/22

Name Type Active Age B T 2023 Salary Eligible FA Potential Non Tender
Daniel Norris Pitcher Yes 29 L L FA Yes
Tucker Barnhart Position Yes 31 L R FA Yes
Drew Hutchison Pitcher Yes 31 L R Arb I believe
 Yes
Jose Cisnero Pitcher Yes 33 R R Min Yes
Jeimer Candelario Position Yes 28 S R Arb Yes
Victor Reyes Position Yes 27 S R Arb Yes
Willi Castro Position Yes 25 S R Min Yes
Luis Castillo Pitcher Minor League 27 R R Min Yes
Bryan Garcia Pitcher Minor League 27 R R Min Yes
Angel De Jesus Pitcher Minor League 25 R R Min Yes
Josh Lester Position Minor League 27 L R Min Yes
Brendon Davis Position Minor League 24 R R Min Yes
Ali Sanchez Position Minor League 25 R R Min Yes
Zack Short Position Minor League 27 R R Min Yes
Miguel Cabrera Position 10-day 39 R R $32M
Tarik Skubal Pitcher 60-day 25 R L Min
Spencer Turnbull Pitcher 60-day 29 R R $2.15M
Casey Mize Pitcher 60-day 25 R R Min
Kyle Funkhouser Pitcher 60-day 28 R R Min
Beau Brieske Pitcher 60-day 24 R R Min
Rony Garcia Pitcher 60-day 24 R R Min
Jake Rogers Position 60-day 27 R R Min
Austin Meadows Position 60-day 27 L L Arb
Alex Faedo Pitcher 60-day 26 R R Min
Andrew Chafin Pitcher Yes 32 R L $6.5M Player Option
Jonathan Schoop Position Yes 30 R R $7.5M Player Option
Eduardo Rodriguez Pitcher Yes 29 L L $14M
Javier Baez Position Yes 29 R R $22M
Eric Haase Position Yes 29 R R Min
Harold Castro Position Yes 28 L R Arb
Joe Jimenez Pitcher Yes 27 R R Arb
Gregory Soto Pitcher Yes 27 L L Min
Tyler Alexander Pitcher Yes 27 R L Min
Will Vest Pitcher Yes 27 R R Min
Jason Foley Pitcher Yes 26 R R Min
Garrett Hill Pitcher Yes 26 R R Min
Alex Lange Pitcher Yes 26 R R Min
Kody Clemens Position Yes 26 L R Min
Daz Cameron Position Minor League 25 R R Min
Elvin Rodriguez Pitcher Minor League 24 R R Min
Joey Wentz Pitcher Yes 24 L L Min
Matt Manning Pitcher Yes 24 R R Min
Kerry Carpenter Position Yes 24 L R Min
Ryan Kreidler Position Yes 24 R R Min
Akil Baddoo Position Yes 23 L L Min
Spencer Torkelson Position Yes 22 R R Min
Luis Garcia Position Minor League 21 S R Min
Riley Greene Position Yes 21 L L Min

The Tigers have 9 players on the 60 Day DL, who must be transferred to the 40 Man if they are under contract at the seasons end. The Tigers have 2 Free Agents Daniel Norris, and Tucker Barnhart, and I am assuming Drew Hutchison is also, but Baseball Reference says he is Arb Eligible.

That means the Tigers will have 48 Players on their 40 Man Roster, 39 active and 9 on the 60 day DL, with 2 expiring contracts. Assuming that Drew Hutchison is immediately non-tendered the Tigers need to reduce their 40 man by a minimum of 5 players to get to 40. I have identified the players I think are non-tender candidates. This list is 11 players.

Below are all the players who are subject to the Rule 5 Draft. I am not 100% sure regarding the 2018 International signings status at this point, but based upon my reading from MLB.com, the player must be assigned to a team to start the clock, and I do not believe they were assigned to a team, until 2019 meaning they are not Rule 5 Eligible until next year. This would include among others Adinso Reyes, and Jose de la Cruz. I have included their 2022 minor league stats, and I have rated their likelihood of being protected and/or selected by another team.

Initial Season Player 40 Man Probability G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR TB RBI SB CS BB IBB SO GDP HBP SH SF E
BB% SO% BA OBP SLG OPS BABIP
2018 Parker Meadows Lock 121 527 462 78 125 24 7 20 55 16 2 51 100 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 223 12 5
9.7% 19.0% 0.271 0.343 0.483 0.826 0.300
2019 Andre Lipcius Lock 119 493 407 62 113 30 2 12 54 12 3 76 79 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 183 12 5
15.4% 16.0% 0.278 0.394 0.450 0.844 0.315
2016 Wenceel Perez High 94 407 356 63 105 23 10 14 66 18 5 42 61 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 190 5 3
10.3% 15.0% 0.295 0.369 0.534 0.903 0.317
2017 Dane Myers Moderate 115 458 426 61 115 20 2 24 73 21 4 19 126 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 211 7 9
4.2% 27.5% 0.270 0.312 0.495 0.807 0.327
2019 Bryant Packard Moderate 81 329 301 52 78 15 2 7 51 24 3 15 55 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 118 2 8
4.6% 16.7% 0.259 0.307 0.392 0.699 0.292
2019 Jake Holton Moderate 116 496 404 70 105 19 3 13 69 5 5 72 94 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 169 18 17
14.5% 19.0% 0.260 0.391 0.418 0.809 0.308
2019 Andrew Navigato Moderate 106 438 388 66 101 21 2 15 49 13 4 28 79 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 171 9 14
6.4% 18.0% 0.260 0.326 0.441 0.767 0.285
2016 Jacob Robson Low 53 179 151 21 29 9 2 3 17 13 4 28 67 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 51 0 0
15.6% 37.4% 0.192 0.318 0.338 0.656 0.321
2016 Brady Policelli Low 29 59 51 14 10 1 1 2 4 0 1 7 16 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 19 2 1
11.9% 27.1% 0.196 0.305 0.373 0.678 0.242
2017 Dylan Rosa Low 54 176 154 22 30 3 0 9 21 3 1 19 83 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 60 3 1
10.8% 47.2% 0.195 0.284 0.390 0.674 0.328
2018 Eric De La Rosa Low 62 227 200 32 44 10 2 3 18 10 3 15 79 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 67 2 10
6.6% 34.8% 0.220 0.304 0.335 0.639 0.342
2018 John Valente Low 68 212 191 24 52 7 2 1 20 7 2 17 23 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 66 3 1
8.0% 10.9% 0.272 0.330 0.346 0.676 0.304
2019 Cooper Johnson Low 28 110 94 7 15 3 0 1 4 0 0 13 36 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 21 2 3
11.8% 32.7% 0.160 0.282 0.223 0.505 0.246
2019 Corey Joyce Low 81 333 264 49 64 11 3 9 36 7 5 51 69 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.8 108 4 15
15.3% 20.7% 0.242 0.390 0.409 0.799 0.291
2018 Kingston Liniak Zero 37 128 107 17 21 6 0 2 11 1 3 21 26 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 33 3 0
16.4% 20.3% 0.196 0.328 0.308 0.636 0.241
2016 Jimmy Mojica Zero 29 82 71 11 18 1 0 1 4 2 0 9 22 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.7 22 1 2
11.0% 26.8% 0.254 0.354 0.310 0.664 0.354
2016 Frank Veliz Zero 32 103 90 10 18 3 1 2 7 0 0 10 32 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 29 2 2
9.7% 31.1% 0.200 0.291 0.322 0.613 0.286
2017 Alvaro Gonzalez Zero 51 173 146 21 27 10 0 3 18 0 1 20 53 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 46 4 6
11.6% 30.6% 0.185 0.306 0.315 0.621 0.264
2017 Carlos Irigoyen Zero 35 101 95 8 17 4 1 0 8 2 0 3 45 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 23 1 2
3.0% 44.6% 0.179 0.218 0.242 0.460 0.333
2017 Yoneiry Acevedo Zero 27 73 62 14 12 1 0 0 3 5 0 10 23 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 13 0 1
13.7% 31.5% 0.194 0.315 0.210 0.525 0.308
2017 Adonis Figuereo Zero 22 62 50 5 6 2 0 3 9 0 2 10 23 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 17 2 2
16.1% 37.1% 0.120 0.290 0.340 0.630 0.125
2017 Iverson Leonardo Zero 47 174 152 20 35 7 1 5 25 6 2 16 37 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 59 4 3
9.2% 21.3% 0.230 0.310 0.388 0.698 0.265
2017 Eduardo Valencia Zero 56 203 177 24 42 7 0 6 25 1 0 22 40 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 67 5 2
10.8% 19.7% 0.237 0.325 0.379 0.704 0.273
2017 Jose Reina Zero 42 155 135 21 34 11 0 1 19 8 2 15 41 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 48 1 3
9.7% 26.5% 0.252 0.335 0.356 0.691 0.351






























































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































40 Man Probability W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF WHIP BA OPS BAbip H9 BB9 SO9 SO/W 3 True Outcome % BB % SO %
Reese Olson Lock AA 8 6 0.5710 4.15 25 24 0 0 0 0 115 107 61 53 14 36 0 159 4 0 11 488 1.243 0.242 0.7 0.34 8.4 2.8 12.44 4.42 36.27% 7.38% 32.58%
Sawyer Gipson-Long High H-A, AAA 10 8 0.5560 4.34 24 23 0 0 0 0 118.1 112 59 57 14 25 0 117 7 1 4 490 1.158 0.246 0.7 0.3 8.5 1.9 8.9 4.68 28.16% 5.10% 23.88%
Adam Wolf High AA 5 3 0.6250 2.74 32 11 4 0 0 3 85.1 74 27 26 6 37 0 88 6 0 6 367 1.301 0.231 0.7 0.3 7.8 3.9 9.28 2.38 27.25% 10.08% 23.98%
Austin Bergner Moderate AA, AAA 5 5 0.5000 3.07 24 23 1 0 0 0 105.2 79 39 36 16 40 0 111 1 1 7 432 1.126 0.202 0.7 0.24 6.7 3.4 9.45 2.78 29.63% 9.26% 25.69%
Andrew Magno Moderate H-A, AAA 2 2 0.5000 2.58 50 0 26 0 0 12 52.1 35 18 15 1 32 0 65 3 0 6 222 1.28 0.189 0.6 0.28 6 5.5 11.18 2.03 31.08% 14.41% 29.28%
Chance Kirby Moderate AA 8 3 0.7270 2.63 28 20 0 1 1 0 123 87 39 36 13 28 0 109 4 0 3 480 0.935 0.197 0.6 0.23 6.4 2 7.98 3.89 26.25% 5.83% 22.71%
Zac Houston Moderate AA, AAA 2 6 0.2500 5.48 43 0 12 0 0 4 47.2 42 34 29 9 35 2 81 7 0 2 225 1.615 0.231 0.8 0.36 7.9 6.6 15.29 2.31 44.00% 15.56% 36.00%
Nolan Blackwood Low AAA 1 1 0.5000 4.36 39 0 10 0 0 0 43.1 47 23 21 9 17 0 34 2 0 2 191 1.477 0.275 0.9 0.3 9.8 3.5 7.06 2 23.56% 8.90% 17.80%
Billy Lescher Low AA, L-A 2 1 0.6670 4.68 39 1 6 0 0 1 42.1 39 22 22 3 12 0 45 5 0 2 175 1.205 0.248 0.7 0.33 8.3 2.6 9.57 3.75 30.29% 6.86% 25.71%
Keider Montero Low H-A 7 7 0.5000 4.51 25 25 0 0 0 0 103.2 100 60 52 12 37 0 101 11 0 4 447 1.322 0.253 0.8 0.31 8.7 3.2 8.77 2.73 27.74% 8.28% 22.60%
Carlos Guzman Low H-A 9 6 0.6000 4.16 25 23 0 1 0 0 106 90 56 49 11 34 0 89 7 3 4 433 1.17 0.233 0.7 0.27 7.6 2.9 7.56 2.62 24.71% 7.85% 20.55%
Angel Reyes Zero H-A, L-A 3 2 0.6000 3.99 30 3 12 0 0 1 47.1 36 24 21 4 22 0 36 8 0 4 204 1.225 0.208 0.7 0.24 6.8 4.2 6.85 1.64 23.53% 10.78% 17.65%
Matt Walker Zero H-A, L-A 3 2 0.6000 4.02 25 7 4 0 0 0 53.2 53 27 24 4 25 0 53 2 0 2 227 1.453 0.266 0.7 0.34 8.9 4.2 8.89 2.12 25.99% 11.01% 23.35%
Ted Stuka Zero H-A, L-A 1 3 0.2500 9.11 26 0 3 0 0 0 27.2 28 29 28 1 34 1 30 4 0 8 145 2.241 0.272 0.8 0.36 9.1 11.1 9.76 0.88 24.83% 23.45% 20.69%
Michael Bienlien Zero H-A, L-A 3 3 0.5000 4.19 35 0 9 0 0 2 53.2 56 29 25 7 30 2 59 3 0 6 248 1.602 0.26 0.8 0.33 9.4 5 9.89 1.97 28.63% 12.10% 23.79%
Wilmer Fenelon Zero L-A, ROK 0 0 0.0000 11.6 10 0 2 0 0 0 7 11 13 9 2 9 0 11 2 0 10 46 2.857 0.314 1 0.41 14.1 11.6 14.14 1.22 32.61% 19.57% 23.91%
Cleiverth Perez Zero ROK 2 1 0.6670 6.27 14 2 3 0 0 1 18.2 20 16 13 1 6 0 16 1 0 2 84 1.393 0.26 0.7 0.32 9.6 2.9 7.71 2.67 21.43% 7.14% 19.05%
Max Green Zero Disabled List 0 0 0.0000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Zack Hess Zero Disabled List 0 0 0.0000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Drew Crosby Zero Restricted List 0 0 0.0000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%







































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































In my mind there are 3 players that are virtual locks to be placed on the Tigers 40 man, as they are a virtual lock to be selected by another team (95% + Probability)

Those 3 are 1.) Parker Meadows, 2.) Andre Lipcius, 3.) Reece Olson.

I have identified 3 players that have an high probability of being placed on the 40 man roster or of being selected by another team. (Greater than 50%, but not a lock to be selected)

Those 3 are 1.) Wenceel Perez, 2.) Sawyer Gipson-Long, 3.) Adam Wolf

I have identified 8 players that I would describe as moderately likely of being selected as a Rule 5 pick (I would say less than 50% chance)

Position Players - Dane Myers, Bryan Packard, Jake Holton, Andrew Navigato

Pitchers - Austin Bergner, Andrew Magno, Chance Kirby, Zac Houston

The remaining players I have identified as low or no chance of being selected.

I believe that there are potentially 5 players who will likely be added by the Tigers (Meadows, Lipciius, Olson, Perez, & Gipson-Long), and that the Tigers will risk that Adam Wolf, and the moderately likely players will make it through the Rule 5. These players do not have to be added to the roster until December.

As I noted above, by the end of the World Series the Tigers will need to reduce their 40 man roster by 5 players to allow the 60-Day DL players to be placed on the roster. I believe the most likely 5 will be Zack Short, Brendon Davis, Luis Castillo, Ali Sanchez, and Josh Lester

So if the Tigers choose to protect all 5 of the players Rule 5 eligible players I have identified above, then they will need to non-tender 5 more of the 11, so in total 10 of the 11 non-tender candidates I have identified above. Assuming no trades happen with these or any other players, the most likely of those will be

Jose Cisnero (he 34 all next season, and spent most of 2022 on the IL)

Jeimer Candelario (he made $5.8 million this year and will get a raise up to approximately $7 million)

Angel de Jesus (He will be 26 next year, and pretty far down the RH RP depth chart)

This leaves 3 players, and 2 of these have to be traded for a non-roster player or non-tendered or one of the 5 players I identified above will have to be exposed to the rule 5 draft.

Victor Reyes - Victor is a limited player, good BA, but doesn't walk or have power, projected future slash line of BA .268, OBP .298, SL% .381, OPS .679, and is a mediocre outfielder.

Willi Castro - Willi is much like Victor, though he can play the infield, albeit poorly. His future slash line is BA .246, OBP .298, SL% .378, OPS .671. Basically they are the same offensive profile and neither is a very good outfielder, and Castro is NOT a MLB infielder.

Bryan Garcia - Garcia will be 28 next season, He had a very nice, albeit lucky 2020, a terrible 2021 (bad luck was not the issue in 2021), but he has had a solid 2022 season, both at AAA and with the Tigers. After spending his entire college and professional career as a relief pitcher, he has remade himself into a starter, and actually was fine in that role.

Feel free to offer what feedback you have.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the <em>Bless You Boys</em> writing staff.

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