Bless You Boys - 2019 Bless You Boys Tigers prospect rankingsA detailed list of nope about the Detroit Tigershttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/47585/default.png2019-03-04T12:30:00-05:00http://www.blessyouboys.com/rss/stream/179544032019-03-04T12:30:00-05:002019-03-04T12:30:00-05:002019 BYB Tigers Prospect #2: SP Matt Manning
<figure>
<img alt="SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/MaUPStOE5qU0ZKW3IEW5KugsBZI=/0x0:3894x2596/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/63169425/1001825396.jpg.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>After a rocky first year as a pro, Manning made huge strides last season.</p> <p id="3MNQMV">Matt Manning had a very exciting 2018 season. For a fanbase looking for reasons to believe in the future, he was certainly one of the big ones. The intimidating right-hander pitched his way across three full season levels of minor league ball, and improved just about every facet of his game. Casey Mize is going to draw the attention early this season, but it has to be emphasized that of all the Tigers’ collection of good pitching prospects, Manning is the youngest. He may well prove to be the best, as well.</p>
<p id="rQigvR">Things weren’t necessarily so rosy this time last year. In Manning’s first full season as a pro, in 2017, the <a href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/">Tigers</a> had held him back in extended spring camp, and Manning was erratic when he eventually got back on the mound for live action. Even the high velocity heater was in question as Manning worked on mechanical adjustments amid the many challenges of a teenagers’ first season as a professional athlete. Always a high-risk, high-reward selection, the risk was a little more evident to a hopeful fanbase by the time the season ended.</p>
<p id="B4bMhj">Late in the season, Manning did start putting things together with a series of fine outings for Class-A West Michigan. Still, it was a little more clear that Manning was as raw as expected, and not at all immune to the risk attached to a prep pitching prospect. An oblique injury at the end of camp in 2018 was a worrisome beginning to his sophomore season. However, Manning shrugged it all off with his characteristic focus, and in the end, the late start just made it easier to manage his innings.</p>
<p id="25pAGP">As soon as he returned to the mound in late April, Manning made it clear that all the hard work was paying off. He surpassed expectations by dominating both A-ball levels and reaching Double-A Erie by August. A strong trio of starts for the SeaWolves put the capstone on an excellent year of development that now has Manning looking well ahead of schedule. </p>
<h3 id="8N1ZvP">Background</h3>
<p id="hZzy0s">Manning’s background is probably familiar by now. The son of former NBA player, Rich Manning, he was a fine high school player who declined a scholarship to Loyola Marymount to enter the major league draft. Manning didn’t begin taking pitching that seriously until his junior year, but when he did, he quickly opened some eyes. </p>
<p id="Qi7kF5">By his senior season, reports of Manning approaching triple digits and flashing the makings of a good breaking ball had scouts filling the seats for his starts, and while he didn’t bother much with the showcases, the word got around quickly. He was pretty unanimously pegged at a top 10 pick in the 2016 draft. The Tigers selected him ninth overall, and he immediately became one of the key focal points of their attempt to build up the farm system and produce a future contender.</p>
<p id="8Z05w7">Thus far, Manning has seen little but success, despite the early mechanical issues. He’s racked up 262 strikeouts in 198 innings of work as a pro, while issuing just 83 walks. Manning holds a career 3.36 ERA, and didn’t miss a beat in three Double-A starts in August. He tossed 117 <sup>2</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> innings in 2018, and has generally been healthy and durable, sustaining his velocity deep into games.</p>
<h3 id="gj7dQq">Strengths</h3>
<p id="eEZ75U">Manning’s size and athleticism are his two most obvious strengths. Standing 6’6, and looking a good deal bigger and stronger than his listed 190 pounds, he’s displayed balance and coordination rarely found in a pitcher of his stature and age. Manning’s long limbs produce an exceptionally long stride and superb extension toward the plate, but with enough balance and control to locate the ball pretty well for his experience level. He already maintains his velocity deep into games, and probably still has room to add muscle to his rangy frame.</p>
<p id="qYwld4">Manning’s fastball typically sits between 93-95 mph now, with the ability to touch 98. The odds are fairly good that he’ll find a little more in the tank as he continues to develop physically. He just turned 21 in January, and is still younger than the college players who will be taken in the draft this coming June. </p>
<p id="BtEpKk">At times, Manning has had the fastball straighten out, or even cut on him as the Tigers tinkered with his mechanics, but he had much more consistent movement on it in 2018. His extension makes the velocity play up well beyond readings on the radar gun, and for the most part, Manning looked to be competing with himself more than with hitters until he hit Double-A ball. When he’s thrown strikes, he’s been absolutely dominant. It’s a plus fastball already, with a good likelihood of being even better than that as he gets stronger.</p>
<p id="vSLnRI">A hard curveball with tight spin and a bit of tilt remains Manning’s sole breaking ball. According to FanGraphs, it features pretty prototypical spin rate, but better than average velocity. The extension and angle Manning gets on it makes it play even a little better than its basic vital signs. He grew much more comfortable with the pitch as the 2018 season progressed, and was showing a consistent plus curveball by the time he reached Erie in August. </p>
<div id="lUI02w">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Here's that Matt Manning curveball I was talking about from two nights ago. 82 mph, about as good as of hook as you'll see <a href="https://t.co/vsvFHd4ApC">pic.twitter.com/vsvFHd4ApC</a></p>— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) <a href="https://twitter.com/kileymcd/status/1033382523097833472?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 25, 2018</a>
</blockquote>
<script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div>
<p id="R9Vgr6">Manning’s changeup is the offering that has lagged behind, but even there he showed progress last season. He still telegraphs it a little by slowing his armspeed, but he was much more confident in his command by late summer and was throwing the change more liberally. Manning has experimented with both a circle changeup, and more of a split-change grip, but at last report had settled in with a fosh grip which gave him quality fading action. Typically he was sitting around 86 mph with the change, which is a bit less velocity separation from his fastball than is optimal, but with some refinements, the making of at least an average future changeup are in place. Again, his fastball velocity and extension should help it to play up as he improves.</p>
<h3 id="udP2UN">Weaknesses</h3>
<p id="s82TvW">There is still work to be done, of course. To that end, there is a <a href="https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2018/09/05/detroit-tigers-give-prospects-matt-manning-beau-burrows-enticing-taste-big-league-life/1202541002/">particular change to his delivery</a> that has been suggested by Tigers’ pitching coach, Rick Anderson, among others. Manning’s long stride forces him to collapse too much on his lead leg, inhibiting hip rotation and not taking full advantage of his height. It’s also a less stable platform to throw from, possibly hindering him from locating as consistently as possible, particularly down in the strike zone. </p>
<p id="sO8jaf">If Manning can shorten his stride a little bit, and post up taller on his lead leg, the benefits may be far-reaching. He should be able to rotate his hips with better speed and efficiency, possibly producing extra gas with less effort from his upper body. That position is also more stable than the deep knee bend Manning currently throws with, which could help his command and consistency. Finally, it would get him throwing more on a downhill plane, taking full advantage of his height and long arms. He doesn’t need to go all the way to the straight lead leg of <span>Noah Syndergaard</span> or <span>Tyler Glasnow</span>, two tall power pitchers Manning is often compared to, but finding a comfortable middle ground between them and his current motion will be something to watch for in 2019. </p>
<p id="WdxJUo">At this point, Manning’s command continues to need work. He locates pretty well at the top of the zone, and to either side, and will pitch aggressively inside. The breaking ball will still get away from him from time to time, but we saw a lot less of that as the 2018 season progressed. Overall he was getting much more consistent movement and velocity, and really looked to have dialed in his release point, moving much more fluently between the wind-up and the stretch. Improving at locating the ball down, and otherwise continuing to refine his command, will be the tasks this season.</p>
<p id="z15urN">Finally, Manning lacks a pitch that moves away from right-handers. This isn’t a pressing issue, as with continued improvements in command, Manning already has the ceiling of a frontline starter. However, developing a slider or cutter along the way would really tie his entire repertoire together. </p>
<p id="LQ9SHt">Manning can already pair high fastballs with his curveball, but his fastball is actually a power sinker, with FanGraphs recently reporting an average spin rate of 2150 rpms, less than major league average. A slider or cutter typically goes better with the sinker, particularly as Manning improves at locating the ball down in the zone. That probably won’t be a priority this year, but developing a pitch that moves in on lefties and away from right-handers could eventually be the final piece of the puzzle if Manning is to fully max out his ace potential. </p>
<h3 id="5DIC6M">Projected 2019 team: Double-A Erie SeaWolves</h3>
<p id="5Vo609">Manning has already made three starts at the Double-A level, and they went well, so it’s easy to forecast his home for most of the 2019 season. Like most young pitchers, the likelihood is that he’ll run into some adversity against older and better hitters this season. After the huge jump he made in 2018, it’s possible that he’ll need a season to consolidate those gains before taking the next step. </p>
<p id="mIYPCZ">However, only small refinements are needed to get him to the point where he’s ready to tackle the major leagues, and it will surprise few if he throttles Eastern League hitters without much issue. In such an event, he’ll reach Triple-A Toledo this summer, and while the Tigers would probably like to take things slowly, may be primed to force his way to the show sometime in 2020.</p>
<div id="kxEUw4"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.2493%;"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/lwMQ7Afqysw?rel=0" style="border: 0; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute;" allowfullscreen="" scrolling="no" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media"></iframe></div></div>
<p id="MImO8u"></p>
https://www.blessyouboys.com/2019/3/4/18244800/detroit-tigers-matt-manning-mlb-pipeline-scouting-reportBrandon Day2019-02-26T11:00:00-05:002019-02-26T11:00:00-05:002019 BYB Tigers Prospect #3: IF Isaac Paredes
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/vvzM8x0LV4-odgxJ3sGMtbCgLm4=/0x0:5184x3456/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/63123846/IMG_2839.0.jpeg" />
<figcaption>Jay Markle/Bless You Boys</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The hard-hitting infielder has an advanced bat, but carries some baggage with him as well.</p> <p id="dNlLDh">Despite his status as probably the <a href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/">Tigers</a>’ best hitting prospect, infielder Isaac Paredes is just now becoming a familiar name. He wasn’t one of the big ticket arms the organization has acquired in the first round of recent drafts, and he didn’t come over with the fanfare—or the baggage—of the <span>Justin Verlander</span> deal. Yet Paredes has done nothing but hit to an extremely precocious degree since his acquisition, and he may be primed to storm the major leagues as early as September of 2019. In a system lacking in high-end positional prospects, he’s quickly risen to the top of the pecking order.</p>
<p id="opUSX0">Astute prospect watchers were intrigued when the Tigers received Paredes and third baseman, <span>Jeimer Candelario</span>, from the <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Cubs</a> in July of 2017. For less than half a season of <span>Alex Avila</span>, plus a year and a half of closer <span>Justin Wilson</span>, the Tigers appeared to have the strong side of the deal, and that opinion has been born out thus far. <span>Candelario</span> was a nice, major league ready addition. However, it’s the hard-hitting teenage shortstop who was the real point of interest.</p>
<p id="iW8dFx">Unfortunately, as Paredes’ body has developed and his skill set has progressed, opinions on his relative tools and their projections have started to diverge. On the one hand, everyone really likes his stick. On the other, he’s filled out his 5’11 frame so rapidly that it’s called into question the long-term prospects for his athleticism. </p>
<p id="0NaKda">We’ve seen Paredes make leaps into numerous top 100 lists over the past year, and he did nothing but produce across two advanced levels for his age in 2018. Yet we’ve also seen more sobering reassessments since the season ended that should put the brakes on hopes of a star in the making. The impression among many seems to be that he was something of an early bloomer, calling into question whether he really has as much ceiling remaining as his age would lead you to expect. The resulting impression is of a young player who should produce at the plate, but whose liabilities may hold him back enough to cap his ceiling well short of our hopes.</p>
<h3 id="iIvZ3Y">Background</h3>
<p id="vMk8JT">Paredes hails from Hermosillo, in Sonora, Mexico. The Chicago Cubs <a href="https://www.thecubreporter.com/isaac-paredes/0">signed him for 850K back in 2015</a>, and he rewarded them with his advanced hit tool in rookie ball. He came to the Tigers organization as an 18-year-old shortstop after tearing up full season A-ball for the Cubs. In 2018, he erupted, graduating quickly from the Florida State League to reach Double-A Erie by mid-July. Paredes didn’t miss a beat at the promotion. In fact, he caught fire with the SeaWolves and mashed his way through the final seven weeks of the season in extremely impressive fashion for a 19-year-old, particularly one playing the shortstop position.</p>
<h3 id="A9TLvR">Strengths</h3>
<p id="6Ayb51">This part is pretty simple. Isaac Paredes is a hitter. FanGraphs posits a plus future grade on his hit tool, and there is general agreement that it should top out as at least above average. He doesn’t strike out much, can take his walks, and is capable of doing substantial damage at the plate. Most of his home run power comes to the pull field, but Paredes hits a lot of balls hard in the air—though with too many pop-ups currently— and does so without compromising his discipline. </p>
<p id="FxjzI7">In 2018, Paredes cracked 12 home runs in 347 plate appearances for the Lakeland Flying Tigers, which is pretty prodigious power in a tough hitting environment. And while the sample is only 155 plate appearances in the Eastern League, he posted an .846 OPS mark there which would’ve placed him fourth in the whole league had he qualified. Numbers like those had his stock on the rise all summer long. Heading into 2019, the Steamer projection system expects that Paredes would already post a 93 wRC+ in the majors, close to league average.</p>
<p id="0r85bF">To back up his bat, Paredes also brings solid hands and a quality throwing arm to the equation. All along, forecasts have predicted a move to second or third base, and that seems certain now. Still, a bat like that, from a player who plays on the dirt, is a very nice piece to have, particularly in the key area of weakness in the Tigers’ farm system.</p>
<h3 id="kgpuH3">Weaknesses</h3>
<p id="vfLKkz">Most of Paredes’ downside is wrapped up in his physique. Weighing in officially at 225 pounds, he’s thickly built and has already more than filled out his 5’11 frame. The Tigers reportedly have been<a href="https://www.freep.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2019/02/24/detroit-tigers-top-prospects-anthony-fenech/2962699002/"> displeased with his conditioning</a> since acquiring him. That size, and the decline rather than improvement in his athleticism, has also served to undercut projections. Unlike other highly regarded teenage prospects, Paredes doesn’t really have room to grow. Instead, he needs to show commitment to getting leaner, quicker, and stronger instead. </p>
<p id="DBxEJT">When he arrived from the Cubs’ organization, one of the notes on Paredes was that he probably wouldn’t stick at shortstop, but possessed reasonably good instincts and reactions for a stockier middle infielder. Future success at either second base or third seemed likely. But even those minor notes of optimism have faded a bit as concerns about his size and conditioning have grown. </p>
<p id="B4nkU7">For example, FanGraphs had him graded as both a current and future 40 grade runner, one full step below average, in their mid-year tool grades in 2018. But in their most recent reassessment, his future grade is actually projected to decline from its current level. This is the kind of footspeed that usually heralds a first baseman or designated hitter candidate.</p>
<p id="XAUqju">The bright side, is that Paredes is young enough to reverse this trend. His innate talent and hitting intelligence are obvious, and the flip side to all these concerns, of course, is that there is plenty of room for improvement in an area that is, to some degree, within his control. But it’s a pernicious issue that extends even to forecasts for his future power production. Based on his track record thus far, you’d expect above average power grades. Instead, many observers are taking a wait-and-see approach while forecasting only average future power potential. </p>
<p id="fcL5hL">If he can make strides in the right direction, we’re likely in for a fun season from him, and a renewed sense of optimism about his potential. If not? He still retains a good chance to be a fine major league hitter, but presumably one who is closer to his developmental ceiling in the rest of his game than was hoped. It may also prove tricky to find a positional home for him in that scenario. Much like <span>Christin Stewart</span>, for example, Paredes is on track to have his obvious value at the plate dragged down by poor speed and limited defensive utility.</p>
<h3 id="EIdpgt">Projected 2019 team: Double-A Erie SeaWolves</h3>
<p id="PDRJOR">Paredes spent only about a month and a half in Erie late in 2018, so it’s easy to forecast a return this season. However, it wouldn’t take too much of a hot start to have him ready for the jump to Triple-A Toledo by the time summer officially rolls around. But as discussed, the bat isn’t really the issue here. The Tigers seem to be planning a full-time move to second base, and while <span>Dawel Lugo</span> is in a holding pattern at Toledo, Paredes will be the priority. If he comes out of spring camp in better shape than we saw last season, the Tigers are likely in business and Paredes isn’t too far from a major league debut. If he doesn’t, the Tigers will have to re-evaluate how he fits into their future plans.</p>
https://www.blessyouboys.com/2019/2/26/18236913/detroit-tigers-isaac-paredes-scouting-report-byb-prospect-rankings-listBrandon Day2019-02-25T18:15:00-05:002019-02-25T18:15:00-05:002019 BYB Tigers prospect #4: OF Daz Cameron
<figure>
<img alt="Minor League Baseball: Arizona Fall League-All Star Game" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/oCNmrX0UJnPinj5ix5mwVRAnMBc=/0x0:4350x2900/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/63121920/usa_today_11690771.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A strong showing in 2018 has vaulted Cameron into our top five.</p> <p id="QhM1t4">It wasn’t long ago that we last gave prospect rankings for the <a href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/">Detroit Tigers</a>’ minor league system. Back in July, <a href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/2018/7/5/17525852/detroit-tigers-prospect-rankings-midseason-2018-casey-mize-franklin-perez-matt-manning">things panned out much differently</a> than this time around. The team’s “big five” pitching prospects dominated the top of our list. That’s great and all — it’s nice to have five high-end pitching prospects in a single farm system — but the relative lack of position players was a tad disappointing. After all, starting pitchers only play every five games.</p>
<p id="xetyer">Enter outfielder Daz Cameron. Acquired from the <a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/">Houston Astros</a> in the <span>Justin Verlander</span> deal, along with right-handed pitcher <span>Franklin Perez</span> (<a href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/2019/2/20/18213333/detroit-tigers-2019-prospect-franklin-perez-scouting-report">No. 5 on our list</a>) and catcher Jake Rogers (<a href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/2019/2/15/18222483/detroit-tigers-prospect-rankings-scouting-report-jake-rogers">No. 8</a>), Cameron impressively flashed his bat, glove, and speed at three different levels in 2018 to vault himself to fourth on our list heading into the upcoming season.</p>
<h2 id="wj0se0">Background</h2>
<p id="PkPkFy">Cameron, who turned 22 on January 15, is the son of former major league outfielder <span>Mike Cameron</span> — he of 278 career home runs and 50.7 career fWAR — and has been a highly-touted prospect since his high school days. Jeff Luhnow’s Astros liked Cameron so much in the 2015 <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb-draft">MLB draft</a> that they selected him with the No. 37 overall pick and paid him a hefty $4 million bonus, well above his $1.6 million slot value.</p>
<p id="Hr5Zip">The Astros allowed Cameron to get his feet wet in 51 rookie-ball games in 2015, but his development temporarily slowed in 2016. He only played 40 games between two levels, and struggled mightily at Single-A Quad Cities. He broke out in 2017, however, as he posted a 128 wRC+ in 120 games at that same level while mashing 14 home runs, stealing 32 bases, and providing above-average defense in center field.</p>
<p id="xqrqPj">That impressive 2017 performance was enough to place Cameron at No. 7 on our <a href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/2018/3/13/17108654/daz-cameron-detroit-tigers-scouting-profiles-2018-byb-prospect-7-justin-verlander-trade">2018 top Tigers prospects list</a>, but his another great year moved him into our top five and <a href="http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/25877678/keith-law-top-prospects-2019">onto the national radar</a>. Cameron started the 2018 at High-A Lakeland. After posting a 110 wRC+ in 58 games, the Tigers promoted him to Double-A Erie. The move paid off; at Erie, Cameron posted a 134 wRC+ with five home runs 12 stolen bases, and an 11.1 percent walk rate. From there, Cameron was moved up to Triple-A Toledo, where he struggled in a short 15-game stint. Despite that little speed bump, Cameron finished with 42 extra-base hits in 126 games. He was also impressive in the Arizona Fall League, with a .903 OPS in 20 games.</p>
<p id="zgQWB9">All in all, Cameron has posted two consecutive strong seasons in the minors, and now finds himself on the doorstep of the major leagues.</p>
<h2 id="1uCYFD">Strengths</h2>
<p id="XRyGya">There are many strengths to Cameron’s game. Let’s go one tool at a time, following FanGraphs’ scouting grades on Cameron from mid-2018.</p>
<p id="tvwyJe">Cameron’s hit tool isn’t fully developed — FanGraphs only has it at 35 at present, with a 55 Future Value (FV) — it could ultimately help land him a starting job. His .285 average at Double-A Erie is an encouraging sign, and his eye has also improved at every stop up to Toledo thus far; his 11.1 percent walk rate at Erie was the best he has posted to date.</p>
<p id="ptFM7U">Cameron’s power, meanwhile, is largely untapped. FanGraphs gives Cameron FV grades of 50 for in-game power and 55 FV raw power, but his current in-game power is well below average, at 30. This is the one tool of his that hasn’t produced a lot of results to date. Sure, he had 42 extra-base hits in 2018, but he only hit eight home runs, down from 14 at Single-A in 2017. Hopefully, Cameron’s power will increase in 2019, as the raw grades suggest that it is there.</p>
<p id="FpwniH">Though the bat is still a question mark, Cameron’s non-hit tools are strong. He has above-average speed, and has shown it off by swiping 56 bases across four levels of minor-league ball in the past two seasons. His above-average fielding grade and average throwing arm have kept him in center field throughout his time in the minors. General manager Al Avila called Cameron “the future center fielder of the Detroit Tigers” in an <a href="https://www.freep.com/story/sports/columnists/jeff-seidel/2018/08/02/detroit-tigers-daz-cameron/880472002/">interview this past August</a>. He will need to hit to earn that moniker, but his glove is already good enough to stick around as a fourth outfielder.</p>
<h2 id="NjYtZF">Weaknesses</h2>
<p id="3GuSuU">You might have noticed that Cameron does not have a single 60-grade tool. He has all-around solid skills, but as of now, he is a master of none. If he doesn’t hit, his glove and speed are not enough to make him a starting center fielder in the big leagues.</p>
<p id="3YoZAA">Let’s talk about that hit tool for a second. At every stop, Cameron has posted respectable batting averages (.250 or higher) and wRC+ figures (110 or higher). But as mentioned, he has also struck out at high rates, including a 28 percent strikeout rate in 58 games at Lakeland. His batting average has also been supplemented by very high batting averages on balls in play (BABIP). Cameron posted a .323 BABIP at Single-A in 2017 before posting a .366 BABIP in both High-A and Double-A in 2018, so there may be some luck behind his numbers. If Cameron can’t hit consistently, that would impact his power, which has been lacking throughout the minors despite him hitting well.</p>
<p id="TmAKZO">But don’t be disheartened. Should his hit tool mature, Cameron will be a very solid major league starter with or without power. There’s a reason FanGraphs named Cameron their <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa874736&position=OF">number two prospect in the Tigers’ organization and their No. 42 prospect overall</a> midway through 2018. That said, they recently bumped him down to their <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa874736&position=OF">#107 prospect in baseball</a> on their 2019 list. He definitely has earned his status as a high-end prospect, but he’s not the next <span>Ken Griffey Jr.</span>; nor should we expect him to be.</p>
<h2 id="JWo4vC">Projected Team: Toledo Mud Hens</h2>
<p id="G0xFNt">Cameron has some unfinished business to attend to at Triple-A Toledo. He posted a disappointing 53 wRC+ in 15 games there last season. His strikeout rate was rather high, and not just in Toledo. It dropped from 28 percent in High-A ball to 23.5 percent at Double-A Erie. He will need to polish this, and several other aspects of his game before challenging for a big league job. Don’t expect to see Cameron with the Tigers much, if at all in 2019, but don’t be surprised if he is in the running for a starting gig this time next year.</p>
https://www.blessyouboys.com/2019/2/25/18212659/detroit-tigers-prospect-rankings-scouting-report-daz-cameronZane Harding2019-02-20T13:00:00-05:002019-02-20T13:00:00-05:002019 BYB Tigers Prospect #5: RHP Franklin Perez
<figure>
<img alt="MLB: Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/GYiF_MjzO1RyzC7wNkPhW8sZh1Y=/0x0:2803x1869/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/63083497/usa_today_11272304.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The young right-hander is undoubtedly talented, but 2019 is a big year for him.</p> <p id="8Lp0Io">Much of the prospect ink spilled on the <a href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/">Tigers</a> behalf over the past year has been dedicated to players like Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Isaac Paredes, Daz Cameron, and Jake Rogers. It’s been somewhat easy to forget that Cameron and Rogers were secondary pieces in the <span>Justin Verlander</span> trade to the <a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/">Houston Astros</a>. The headliner of the Tigers’ acquisitions in the deal, right-handed pitcher <span>Franklin Perez</span>, endured a host of injuries in 2018 that turned it into a lost season. As a result, our top-ranked Tigers’ prospect from a year ago now checks in at number five.</p>
<p id="j7a0pO">In recent years particularly, the Tigers have been cautious with young players, shutting down prospects like Kyle Funkhouser and <span>Spencer Turnbull</span> for long stretches because of issues with elbow and shoulder inflammation, respectively. That care paid dividends in 2018, as both were relatively healthy, able to compete a full slate of innings and showed improvements in their command. However, both pitchers are in their mid-20’s, with plenty of work and experience already behind them. Franklin Perez is a different case, and so it will be interesting to see how the Tigers handle the talented young hurler this season.</p>
<h3 id="vTcViH">Background</h3>
<p id="p5BCvt">Franklin Perez was a 17-year-old Venezuelan third baseman working out at the Carlos Guillen Baseball Academy <a href="https://www.freep.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2018/02/11/detroit-tigers-franklin-perez-houston-astros/326144002/">when the Houston Astros </a>took a liking to him. They identified his true potential as a pitcher, and signed him for a million dollars. Perez rewarded his new club by developing rapidly into a hard throwing young starter with a precocious changeup and advanced control. Two years later, Perez had already made a successful jump to the Double-A level when he was dealt to Detroit. </p>
<p id="ZALD7b">After so much smooth sailing, perhaps a setback year was inevitable. </p>
<p id="3vsV5g">The Tigers only got a brief look at Perez last March before he suffered a lat strain that kept him on the shelf until June. Unfortunately, that return was short-lived, as Perez quickly succumbed to shoulder inflammation which led the Tigers to shut him down for the rest of the season. Perez encamped around Lakeland this offseason in an effort to improve his flexibility and functional strength with the Tigers’ training staff. If that decision pays dividends for his health, Franklin Perez is going to be back on the fast track to the major leagues.</p>
<h3 id="lC7R93">Strengths</h3>
<p id="BGoJoz">The first thing you notice about Franklin Perez is that he is a fairly imposing individual. Still listed at 6’3, 197 pounds, he’s a good deal bigger than that now, with huge legs, a powerful, muscular frame, and solid athleticism overall. His size and lower body strength are exactly what teams look for in a starting pitcher, hoping for durability and easy gas. That durability took a hit in 2018, but there are plenty of reasons Perez was<a href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/2018/3/25/17158728/detroit-tigers-2018-top-prospect-franklin-perez-scouting-report"> BYB’s consensus number one ranked Tigers’ prospect</a> this time last year. </p>
<p id="FkyOfj">Perez has a powerful motion off the rubber, but doesn’t have to overthrow to sit 93-95 mph out of a high arm slot. He’s also capable of reaching back for a little more when he wants it. That arm slot has its pluses and minuses, but it produces enough downward plane that Perez can get groundballs low in the zone, while still regularly working at the top of the zone with the heater. It provides some deception, but makes it tougher to really get substantial horizontal break on any of his offerings.</p>
<p id="jt3NgE">That arm slot, combined with good extension and arm speed, does add to the deception of Perez’s changeup. He’s shown advanced feel for the pitch since he was a teenager, and has confidence in it as a primary secondary offering. The changeup has good fading action, and if he can build on its consistency, Perez should take a plus changeup to the majors eventually.</p>
<p id="pzHWWN">The better of Perez’ two breaking balls is the curveball. The curve packs good spin and looping, 12-to-6 break, and again the pitch seems to pair well with the fastball and changeup. It’s not a high-end curveball, but it’s average with a chance for more, and Perez showed pretty good command of it prior to missing most of 2018.</p>
<p id="2Q4LaW">Finally, while most young pitchers are held back by their command above all else, Perez has always been precocious in that department as well. Not only does he throw strikes, but when last seen in a groove back in 2017, Perez was locating three pitches down to both sides of the plate, and changing hitters’ eye level by going upstairs with the heater. If he can come out strong in 2019 and recapture these attributes, Perez is actually pretty close to a major league ready pitching prospect.</p>
<h3 id="BWwWL7">Weaknesses</h3>
<p id="TLVIyA">We can sum these up fairly simply. More than anything else, Perez needs to stay healthy and start building up his innings workload again in 2019. He spent the whole offseason in Florida to continue training at the Tigers’ Lakeland facilities, which is a good sign for his devotion. While he didn’t suffer any major injuries last year, the shoulder inflammation he dealt with has to be the key concern. The organization will hope that adjustments in his strength and conditioning, or perhaps a minor alteration to his delivery, can minimize future shoulder issues.</p>
<p id="y14jfE">Tied into those health risks, is the fact that Perez is still young and just doesn’t have that much work under his belt yet. He’s only been pitching for a few years. On the one hand, perhaps that bodes well for his recovery. His body is still getting accustomed to the workload. On the other, some people just can’t hold up to the physical stress of being a professional pitcher, no matter how strong they are. The Tigers have to worry about the latter scenario, while hoping these are just growing pains along the way. </p>
<p id="ZJjfsi">Beyond health, another issue that may hold Perez back is his lack of a quality slider. He’ll flash a good one now and then, but his arm slot just isn’t conducive to developing a really good slide piece. Perez has enough with his changeup and curveball to succeed anyway, but the changeup will really have to reach its ceiling for Perez to reach his. The curveball is solid, but just not likely to be a consistent swing-and-miss offering.</p>
<p id="2dpmix">Finally, if there’s one final flaw in the Franklin Perez package, it’s just the fact that he’s not that far from a finished product. There isn’t a ton of forecasted development left in the tank, barring major and probably ill-advised delivery changes. His motion doesn’t bode real well for major steps in his command, and the breaking balls leave something to be desired. On the one hand this means that his ceiling is limited, and Perez doesn’t really have ace potential. On the other, it means he’s relatively close to being major-league ready, and could surprise with how fast he moves should his body allow it.</p>
<h3 id="HAjCTt">Projected 2019 team: Double-A Erie SeaWolves</h3>
<p id="XVSkIf">Perez has already succeeded at the Double-A level, so while he may get some time in extended spring camp to save his arm and work on a few things, there just isn’t much for him to learn in the Florida State League. The Tigers will probably control his workload pretty tightly, but he needs to face hitters in the upper minors to improve. Look for him to be under strict workload restriction early on, but if all goes well, Perez will spend most of the year in Erie. With luck, he could even reach Toledo on the cusp of his first major league callup by year’s end.</p>
<p id="CzQQMa"></p>
<p id="lWU6V6"></p>
https://www.blessyouboys.com/2019/2/20/18213333/detroit-tigers-2019-prospect-franklin-perez-scouting-reportBrandon Day2019-02-19T14:15:00-05:002019-02-19T14:15:00-05:002019 BYB Tigers Prospect #6: OF Christin Stewart
<figure>
<img alt="MLB: Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/HeYhgwKzxgOSryZFU3skl38XvTA=/0x0:3939x2626/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/63077374/usa_today_11302378.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Stewart has mashed his ways to the major leagues, but will the glove diminish his long-term value?</p> <p id="DPWexw">I have good news, and I have bad news.</p>
<p id="CqrYhX">Let’s start with the good news. If you are dying for a prospect to come up to Detroit and make an immediate impact this season, you’re in luck. After raking his way through the minor leagues, <span>Christin Stewart</span> arrived last September and is poised to start every day in left field for the <a href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/">Tigers</a> in 2019. In just 72 plate appearances with Detroit last season, he was 20 percent better than league-average hitters, according to wRC+, which would have placed him 12th among 28 American League outfielders (had he amassed enough plate appearances).</p>
<p id="abOxlq">Here’s the bad news; Stewart is somewhat of a one-dimensional prospect. He is poised to put up large numbers at the plate moving forward, but he has struggled in the outfield throughout his professional career, and is projected to be a below-average defender in the majors.</p>
<p id="b6zB9n">Nevertheless, Stewart has the best bat of any prospect in the Tigers system, and posted phenomenal numbers at Triple-A Toledo last season. His sharp eye and his power will assuredly catch eyes this year and beyond.</p>
<h3 id="ydVJW2">Background</h3>
<p id="ZiDfJM">Four years ago, the Tigers selected Stewart out of Tennessee with a supplemental first round pick in the 2015 <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb-draft">MLB draft</a>. Since then, the 6’0, 205-pound Stewart has accumulated 1,930 plate appearances in the minor leagues, knocked 51 home runs between his two seasons spent in Double and Triple-A ball, and he has walked at a 10 percent clip or better at every minor league stop.</p>
<p id="QZQ0TI">Let’s stick with these offensive numbers for a moment just to show how Stewart mashed his way through the minor leagues. He posted a 174 wRC+ in Lakeland in 2016 — 74 percent better than league average — a 126 wRC+ in Erie in 2017, and a 138 wRC+ in Toledo last season. He also managed to draw walks at a 12.8 percent clip in Toledo last year. It’s hard to put into words how much of a force Stewart has been in the minor leagues, so it’s easy to see why he will presumably win the Tigers’ starting job in left field in spring training.</p>
<h2 id="lQeB2Q">Strengths</h2>
<p id="IXydrJ">Stewart’s bat is not some well-kept secret. FanGraphs rates his hit tool as below average at present, but with a Future Value (FV) of 50, or league average. That seems fair, as Stewart has only hit .262 in his minor league career. To his credit, he has made some nice adjustments to help create more contact and cut down on strikeouts, <a href="http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018/?list=det">as MLB Pipeline detailed</a>.</p>
<blockquote><p id="Vxpxyj">There will always be some swing and miss to his game, but he did cut down his strikeout rate a touch in 2017 and he does offset the whiffs by drawing a good amount of walks. He has worked on his overall approach and tried to cut down on his swing to allow him to tap into his tremendous raw power consistently.</p></blockquote>
<p id="hWVydF">Stewart’s marquee tool, of course, is his power. Fangraphs grades Stewart with plus potential in-game power, and 65-grade raw power. <a href="http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018/?list=det">MLB Pipeline is not quite as optimistic</a>, but still grades it an above-average tool. Even though his below-average speed isn’t going to help him leg out a ton of triples, expect plenty of doubles and home runs from Stewart at Comerica Park. As <a href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/2018/3/11/17106406/detroit-tigers-prospect-rankings-christin-stewart-scouting-report">our preview mentioned last year</a>, Stewart’s power has primarily been to the pull field, but according to FanGraphs, he did spread the ball pretty evenly in a small sample of major league plate appearances last September (though both home runs were indeed to right field).</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/W8_kH2fl_X0OYSC_5YU5Fw0IGlk=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/13733095/Screen_Shot_2019_02_02_at_5.40.55_PM.png">
</figure>
<p id="5HuLo2">Stewart also has the plate discipline to supplement his power. He drew walks in 12.8 percent of plate appearances at Triple-A Toledo last year, and slightly improved that rate in his September audition in the bigs. All in all, should he continue to hit at close to the rate he has throughout the minors, Stewart should be able to produce a .800-.850 OPS in the major leagues. Steamer already projects him close to that, with an estimated .777 OPS (and 10.2 percent walk rate!) for 2019.</p>
<h2 id="tWJ77E">Weaknesses</h2>
<p id="t05Eeb">It starts and ends with Stewart’s glove. First things first: FanGraphs gave it a 30 on the 20-80 scouting scale. He also only has below-average (40) grades on his arm and speed, which further contribute to his poor fielding. That 40-grade speed will make him a below-average base runner even at his peak, though he didn’t look too bad in limited action last year.</p>
<p id="5wFXaF">Thankfully, while Stewart’s 17-game stint in Detroit painted a doom-and-gloom picture for his future defense — he was worth -5 runs in 17 games, according to dWAR — other scouting reports are a bit more positive on his fielding prowess. In September, John Sickels of Minor League Ball <a href="https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018/9/12/17846270/thoughts-on-detroit-tigers-prospect-christin-stewart">wrote on Stewart’s fielding potential</a>.</p>
<blockquote><p id="TI6cAL">The negative is defense: his speed and arm are below average. He’s worked hard to improve his routes and isn’t a butcher in left field; his error rate is actually quite low, but the lack of natural speed and range limits what he can do. Still, the glove is playable if he hits enough, which he should. His makeup is another positive.</p></blockquote>
<p id="4GUues">That’s a good sign; Stewart doesn’t commit many errors and has put a lot of effort into his routes on fly balls. While he projects to be more of a designated hitter in the distant future, the Tigers will give him every chance to make strides in the field for now.</p>
<h2 id="QsiqEt">Projected Team: Detroit Tigers</h2>
<p id="FRsYPR">Assuming his bat doesn’t go ice cold this spring, Stewart should be the Tigers’ starting left fielder throughout 2019. He will also hit in the middle of the lineup, or in the No. 2 spot like he did last fall. If he can hold himself in the field as well as <span>Nicholas Castellanos</span> does — anything approaching league average would be a huge win — his bat will help him contribute solid value to the team as an everyday player. Prepare yourself for some highlight-reel home run clips in 2019, but his below-average glove will sap some of his value in the years to come.</p>
https://www.blessyouboys.com/2019/2/19/18208134/detroit-tigers-prospect-rankings-scouting-report-christin-stewartZane Harding2019-02-16T20:34:55-05:002019-02-16T20:34:55-05:002019 BYB Tigers Prospect #7: RHP Beau Burrows
<figure>
<img alt="Minor League Baseball: Eastern League All Star Game" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Nt8_Xszo_-mP94hk5cRu550vxLg=/0x0:4670x3113/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/63065149/usa_today_10932329.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Gregory J. Fisher-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>After striking out nearly a batter per inning in Double-A Erie, 22-year-old Burrows may make it to The Show this year.</p> <p id="wAMYBp">Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. “Beau Burrows is a great under-the-radar prospect.” Overshadowed by fellow top-end pitching prospects Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and even <span>Franklin Perez</span> in the <a href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/">Detroit Tigers</a>’ farm system, Burrows has built an impressive résumé while climbing the ranks in the minor leagues without drawing much attention. Entering 2019, Burrows has fallen from being MLB Pipeline’s <a href="http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018">No. 86 prospect</a> to being unranked. Similarly, he has fallen from <a href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/2018/3/19/17133252/detroit-tigers-prospect-rankings-beau-burrows-scouting-report-erie-seawolves">No. 4 on our 2018 list</a> to seventh on this year’s edition.</p>
<p id="RXcN3i">I know what you’re thinking. “Oh, so he must suck now.” Slow down, now. Burrows may not be a Big Baller, McDonald’s All-American, future perennial all star, top-20 future ace type prospect (that’s Casey Mize!), but he is nevertheless a fantastic young pitcher with relatively low risk going forward.</p>
<h2 id="PpOJY9">Background</h2>
<p id="3PCCm9">Burrows has seemingly been in the Tigers’ farm system forever, after being taken 22nd overall in the 2015 <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb-draft">MLB draft</a> (back when <span><em>Yoenis Cespedes</em></span><em> </em>was still on the team). Four years later, Burrows has moved through the minors with impressive results. After pitching 28 successful innings in rookie ball in 2015 and posting a 1.61 ERA and 2.34 FIP there, Burrows pitched 97 innings in 2016, all at Single-A West Michigan. While his underlying numbers for the Whitecaps were not fantastic — he only managed 6.22 strikeouts per nine innings that year — he moved up to High-A Lakeland in 2017.</p>
<p id="qQgeLE">Lakeland was a turning point for Burrows as a pitcher in many ways. He struck out over a batter per inning in 58 <sup>2</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> frames there. He also limited batters to only 1.69 walks per nine innings, resulting in a 1.23 ERA and 2.58 FIP through 11 starts. Burrows earned a midseason promotion to Double-A Erie, where he had his fair share of struggles. He still struck out 8.84 per nine, but his walks skyrocketed to 10 percent. Paired with his strand rate falling from 91.2 percent at Lakeland to 68.6 percent in Erie, and his ERA inflated to 4.72 over 76 <sup>1</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> innings for the SeaWolves that summer.</p>
<p id="Ynuv4a">Burrows’ high 2017 ERA at Double-A Erie led him to spend more time there in 2018. Over 134 innings there this past season, he posted a 4.10 ERA and a 4.03 FIP. His 0.81 home runs allowed per nine innings in Double-A Erie in 2018 was the highest of his career to date, but still an impressive figure considering the offensive prowess of the Eastern League. Additionally, he struck out 8.53 batters per nine (solid) and walked 3.76 per nine (a more worrisome number; more on that shortly).</p>
<h2 id="HrIM7U">Strengths</h2>
<p id="paAGS3">It’s hard not to love Burrow’s repertoire. Do you like 98 mile-per-hour fastballs? Cool! Burrows has one of those, at times. It sticks more in the 93-96 mile-per-hour range during starts, but he maintains his velocity deep into outings, as we mentioned in an <a href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/2018/12/25/18155642/detroit-tigers-2019-prospect-rankings-top-30-casey-mize-matt-manning-daz-cameron">earlier write-up on Burrows</a>. That fastball grades out as a plus pitch, with 60 Future Value (FV) from both <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa874682&position=P">FanGraphs</a> and <a href="http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018/?list=det">MLB Pipeline</a>. Our friends at <a href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/44380/2019-prospects-top-10-detroit-tigers-prospects/">Baseball Prospectus</a> reported that it slowed down a tick last season, but it should still carry Burrows through plenty starts at the major league level.</p>
<p id="j2Xmra">Of course, any starter worth watching in the big leagues has strong secondary offerings. Burrows doesn’t have a devastating<em> </em>second pitch, but he does have three solid off-speed offerings. Depending on the source, you may hear either his curveball or changeup touted as a plus offering, so that is an encouraging sign moving forward. His slider doesn’t grade out quite as well (<a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa874682&position=P">45/50 FV per FanGraphs</a>), so he probably won’t go full <span>Max Scherzer</span>, but his arsenal is deep enough to slot into the back end of a big league rotation.</p>
<p id="i5z9wZ">One more plus for Beau Burrows has been his health over time. He hasn’t missed any major time to date, and has a clean, easy delivery — though it can lead to command issues at times.</p>
<h2 id="hy7WlI">Weaknesses</h2>
<p id="CxyoWo">Command has not been a big concern for Burrows in the past, but he has struggled a bit since reaching Double-A Erie. He walked 3.89 batters per nine in 76 <sup>1</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> innings for the SeaWolves in 2017, and then walked 3.76 batters per nine this past season. That said, his highest FIP at any stop was his 4.03 mark in 134 innings of Double-A this past year. Even then, Burrows is only 22 years old and did this against hitters that were about three years older than him on average.</p>
<p id="W8B3Ct">Unfortunately, that minor concern became a bit larger in 2018. As mentioned, Burrows walked nearly four batters per nine last season. FanGraphs grades his command as below average at present, with an average (50) future value. Moving forward, that will be something to watch. The issue very well may be his mechanics, which can be inconsistent at times. Burrows is young, and could iron his mechanics out over time, which will be something to watch going forward.</p>
<p id="tGZ55I">Overall, Burrows doesn’t have many other weaknesses right now. This time last year, we wrote that he simply needs to refine his game and be a more consistent player. That still rings true, though he did put up better numbers in Double-A while still being young for the level. Consistency will be the key to whether Burrows works out as a major league starter or whether he gets sent to the bullpen. If he continues to get innings in, he has solid odds of correcting his issues, especially given his young age.</p>
<h2 id="ayFw4Z">Projected Team: Triple-A Toledo Mud Hens</h2>
<p id="E79gUX">While it would be cool for the Erie SeaWolves to roll out a starting rotation with all five of the Tigers’ big five pitching prospects — Mize, Manning, Burrows, Perez, and Alex Faedo — Burrows should start the season at Triple-A Toledo. He is the furthest ahead of his aforementioned peers in his development, and there seems to be no need to give him another season’s worth of innings in Double-A. They still may start him in Erie, but he will almost surely move up at some point this season.</p>
<p id="1aID5Z">Make no mistake, Toledo will be a big test for Burrows. Should things go well, he might warrant a late-season call-up. He will be Rule 5 draft eligible next winter, and could even compete for a spot in the Tigers’ rotation this time next year.</p>
https://www.blessyouboys.com/2019/2/16/18206009/detroit-tigers-prospect-rankings-scouting-report-beau-burrowsZane Harding2019-02-15T14:40:00-05:002019-02-15T14:40:00-05:002019 BYB Tigers prospect #8: C Jake Rogers
<figure>
<img alt="Minor League Baseball: Arizona Fall League-All Star Game" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ukE-5iTzG6zNg3PZpsx5tmepGgQ=/0x626:2778x2478/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/63060744/usa_today_11690770.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Rogers will be one of the best defensive backstops in the game the instant he hits the majors.</p> <p id="kq5jY7">One of the more memorable introductions written for an article on this site was crafted by John Marlatt for <a href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/2016/11/3/13341124/mlb-trade-rumors-free-agents-catchers-matt-wieters-alex-avila">a piece on free agent backstops</a> back in November 2016.</p>
<p id="dXN20y">“Catchers are like toothbrushes,” he wrote. “They are necessary and do an important job, but aside from the really expensive ones that do special stuff, there’s really nothing exciting about acquiring one. Even the ones you spend a lot of money on often make you question if it was really worth it.”</p>
<p id="BUbrSD"><a href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/">Tigers</a> prospect Jake Rogers fits that paradigm nicely. It required parting ways with a future Hall of Fame candidate in <span>Justin Verlander</span> to add Rogers (and two other prospects) to the pipeline. Although one could argue that the trade was a necessary evil for the Tiger at that point, that’s still a pretty expensive catcher. Rogers can do some special stuff, though, and has what is probably the highest floor of any prospect on our top 30 list.</p>
<h3 id="zPHNAi">Background</h3>
<p id="B4heRC">Rogers was a defensive stalwart during his days at Tulane University, but it was obvious from day one that his production as a pro was going to be lopsided. He landed in the third round, taken by the <a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/">Houston Astros</a>. Little more than one year later, he was no longer part of Houston’s organization. He had been exported, shipped off as the opposite end of the deal that added <span>Verlander</span> to a team destined to win the <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/world-series">World Series</a>.</p>
<p id="6hTQ0v">As a member of the Tigers’ organization, Rogers has been a boring prospect, but in a good way. He is still a defensive stalwart, and still has roadblocks to being a productive hitter. He hit .219/.305/.412 in 99 Double-A games. That included a 10 percent walk rate (good), a 27.5 percent strikeout rate (bad), and 50.0 percent fly ball rate (ugly). Even so, he’s a very polished catching prospect getting ever closer to the majors.</p>
<h3 id="YUTyUb">Strengths</h3>
<p id="xSDjnn">It’s difficult to overstate Rogers’ value as a defender, but I’ll give it a shot. A player as keyed in to the offensive side of his game as Rogers is on defense would undoubtedly be rated among the game’s finest minor leaguers. Unfortunately, though, a player’s ability in the field is never as valuable as his contributions at the plate. That makes it harder to come up with ways to describe players who live and breathe by their glove.</p>
<p id="bsFKL9">Nevertheless, we need adjectives somewhere in the article, so I’ll steal one recently employed by <a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-top-100-prospects/">FanGraphs’ description of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s bat</a> — “messianic.” That’s a good way to describe Rogers’ defensive acumen; even if he never hits his weight, he could still be a second tier big-league starter. At the very least, evaluators think he could have a hearty career making his way around the league as a defense-first backup.</p>
<p id="G4CPKW">Rogers puts on a masterclass in poise behind the plate every time he takes the field. His impressive reflexes allow him to handle stray pitches with grace and he is often commended for his ability to stifle runaway balls in the dirt. He is also heralded as an excellent pitch framer, which is a breath of fresh air for an organization that’s given the lion’s share of playing time to poor framers like <span>Alex Avila</span> and <span>James McCann</span> for the better part of a decade.</p>
<p id="HVqK8b">As you’d expect from a catcher so well-regarded, Rogers’ quality arm can keep pace with his stellar glove work. He has all three attributes that scouts look for in spades: pop time, arm strength, and accuracy. It’s a deadly combination, one that served him well in Erie. In fact, he broke the SeaWolves’ single-season record for runners caught stealing in 2018. It’s another plus tool in his repertoire and only adds to the likelihood that he will be a plus defender in the bigs.</p>
<div id="8mpjwe">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Here is the record breaking throw from Jake Rogers as he nailed a base stealer for the 48th time this season, setting the SeaWolves single-season record. He passes Mike Rivera who threw out 47 in 2001. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RoadToDetroit?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#RoadToDetroit</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Tigers?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Tigers</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/_JROG_?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@_JROG_</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/DetroitTigersPR?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@DetroitTigersPR</a> <a href="https://t.co/uv8DOAYxZL">pic.twitter.com/uv8DOAYxZL</a></p>— Erie SeaWolves (@erie_seawolves) <a href="https://twitter.com/erie_seawolves/status/1032697769725763590?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 23, 2018</a>
</blockquote>
<script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div>
<p id="7fTVVk">Rogers is also able to contribute at the plate thanks to some solid power. He has a high-stepping swing mechanic that allows him to put a lot of force into his swings. When he makes contact with the ball, things usually go well. He posted a relatively low 31.4 percent ground ball rate to go along with raw power that borders on plus. He could eventually hit double-digit home runs given a full season of at-bats.</p>
<h3 id="pj2RNj">Weaknesses</h3>
<p id="c4CVMa">That goose-stepping uppercut mechanic that put the oomph in Rogers’ swing also makes it very difficult for him to time out pitches correctly. He always has had a lot of swing-and-miss in his game — remember the high strikeout rate we mentioned earlier? — and that doesn’t figure to go away any time soon. He has always hit at every level... eventually. As he gets promoted and faces pitchers more skilled at exploiting a hitter’s every weakness, it becomes less and less likely that Rogers adapts yet again. </p>
<p id="NENl6w">That is really all that can be said about the weaknesses in Rogers’ otherwise polished game, but it’s unfortunately a disproportionately large part of his profile. It’s possible that a change in approach is coming down the pipe for Rogers. Odds are that his uppercut power swing simply has too many holes to work for much longer. Shifting to a less extreme offensive style could work in his favor. For example, that could be accomplished with a swing that’s a little less noisy, possibly cutting out the KBO-esque high step in exchange for a more understated toe-tap.</p>
<p id="3ij4iD">Top brass may also decide that he just doesn’t have it in him to hit for much more than he can with the kick, in which case, leaving it there would be the prudent course of action. Given his high walk rate and solid power, it may not be worth changing if he can continue to get on base and punish mistakes, strikeouts be damned.</p>
<p id="k3UJQw">Aside from his contact issues, the only thing he doesn’t excel at is running, which is really no surprise. Catchers don’t need to be speedy, though, and they often aren’t thanks to their typically stocky builds.</p>
<h3 id="8Z0Cpk">Projected Team: Double-A Erie SeaWolves</h3>
<p id="qSCZ9W">Despite spending a whole season there in 2019, Rogers hasn’t quite mastered Double-A pitching quite yet. His lukewarm performance at the plate was two percent below league average, per wRC+. While his defense is playable in the bigs already, there’s obviously still work that needs to be done on his bat. Rogers will also be a good influence on the abundance of top pitching prospects that the Tigers will cycle through Erie this year. If he starts the season out hot, it would not be a surprise to see him quickly promoted to Triple-A. For now, though, he will stay with the SeaWolves.</p>
<div id="tiUgGW"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.2493%;"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/_DeR94iJ9cM?rel=0" style="border: 0; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute;" allowfullscreen="" scrolling="no" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media"></iframe></div></div>
https://www.blessyouboys.com/2019/2/15/18222483/detroit-tigers-prospect-rankings-scouting-report-jake-rogersJacob Markle2019-02-12T16:00:00-05:002019-02-12T16:00:00-05:002019 BYB Tigers Prospect #9: RHP Alex Faedo
<figure>
<img alt="MLB: Detroit Tigers-Workouts" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/GIuHlg-MHKfOBGZS6MDWohvD9Lo=/0x0:3587x2391/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/63042934/usa_today_10616830.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Tigers first round pick in 2017 hit a wall at the Double-A level last year.</p> <p id="rUL6yY">Prospect currency is more volatile than the markets, particularly when that prospect is a pitcher. When the <a href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/">Tigers</a> selected Alex Faedo in the first round of the 2017 draft, that decision was pretty well received. Faedo was rapidly installed on many top 100 prospect lists, bolstering the Tigers’ core of good young pitchers. By the time the big right-hander had shown out in leading the University of Florida to a <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/college-world-series">College World Series</a> title that summer, confidence that the Tigers had landed another exciting young arm was pretty high. Unfortunately, Faedo’s first full season of pro ball did not go as planned.</p>
<p id="3hIAmB">It’s too early to call this a decisive year in Faedo’s career, but the fact remains that his loss of velocity and overall stuff was the most striking note from his 2018 campaign. Ups and downs are expected in any young player’s development. However, with pitchers especially, seeing them in a diminished form without any particular explanation is concerning. If he’s going to maintain his status as a part of the Tigers hopes for the future, he needs to rebound in a big way this season.</p>
<h3 id="W51ghu">Background</h3>
<p id="azYkRJ">The baseball program at the University of Florida has positively been a gold mine of pitching talent over the last few seasons. An absolutely dominant career there made Faedo an easy pick for the Tigers when they came on the clock in 2017. His college numbers are dominant — he pitched to the tune of a 2.80 ERA with 10.84 strikeouts and only 0.59 home runs per nine innings. </p>
<p id="L4KKr4">Professional baseball didn’t treat him so kindly, though. He was able to weather High-A without much damage to his surface numbers, but there was also chatter of his stuff having backed up quite a bit during his first few starts. A strikeout rate of just 7.52 batters every nine innings would seem to confirm that, and those voices only got louder as the season progressed. His velocity was more commonly 90-91 mph, instead of the mid-90’s heat he showed in his junior season with the Gators. The slider wasn’t quite as biting. Double-A hitters absolutely teed off on him, launching 15 home runs in just 60 innings of work for the Erie SeaWolves. The strikeouts started to tick back up, but his walks also increased threefold. What was driving these performances?</p>
<h3 id="0S39uc">Strengths</h3>
<p id="b9E8qd">All the things that made Faedo a first rounder are still present, they’ve just been dialed down a little. His main weapon is a breaking ball. It’s a slider with late vertical movement, a pitch that positively ate up college hitters and qualified as one of the best in the nation at the time. It flashed easily plus at its best, serving as his out pitch. Through the power of that electric pitch and a power sinker, Faedo was at one point a candidate to go first overall. </p>
<p id="qp8Mq3">It didn’t play as well in pro ball as it did in college, though. Evaluators still saw an above-average pitch, but nowadays it resides more in 55-grade territory rather than its former easy plus status. That’s still a solid pitch, mind you, one that is polished more than many minor leaguers’ breaking balls and can get strikeouts against high level batters. </p>
<p id="qpEW2j">Faedo’s fastball atrophied in a similar way to his slider after entering the pro ranks. He could never lay claim to high-end velocity. “I don’t really care too much about velo,” <a href="https://www.mlb.com/tigers/news/alex-faedo-gets-feet-wet-with-first-pro-outing/c-267205500"><strong>said</strong></a> Faedo to <a href="http://mlb.com/"><strong>MLB.com</strong></a><strong> </strong>almost a year ago. “As long as I’m getting outs and winning games, I don’t really care about all the extra stuff.” Instead, he worked a plus heater thanks to his ability to manipulate its shape and command the pitch. He didn’t show the same aptitude for the pitch in 2018, though, and it’s grade slipped down to an average level, peaking slightly higher. </p>
<p id="d0oA3v">The organization is still optimistic about the young righty’s future. “I think there’s a lot to like about Alex Faedo,” said Vice President of Player Development Dave Littlefield in <a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheathletic.com%2F805594%2F2019%2F02%2F11%2Fqa-tigers-dave-littlefield-on-casey-mize-expectations-prospects-to-watch-and-much-better-days-ahead%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.blessyouboys.com%2F2019%2F2%2F12%2F18213561%2Fdetroit-tigers-prospect-rankings-scouting-report-alex-faedo" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">an interview </a>with The Athletic. “He’s a great competitor, he’s got a variety of pitches, plus location and plus pitches at times.”</p>
<h3 id="CtfwVm">Weaknesses</h3>
<p id="Gm7STc">After giving Faedo an above-slot bonus of $3.5 million, the Tigers shut him down for the season. He’d been a workhorse for the Gators and pitched deep into the postseason, winning the College <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/world-series">World Series</a>’ Most Outstanding Player award. Unfortunately, he did just exactly what you’d expect a 20-something-year-old alpha male might do with disposable wealth and no one hovering over his shoulder. He showed up to Spring Training looking very rusty.</p>
<p id="Tvw54y">The command that once drew accolades and allowed his whole pitch mix to play up faltered due to a variety of reasons. It’s difficult to overestimate how important it is that Faedo is able to maintain his command, it’s what floats the profile as a starting pitcher. Especially because his fastball isn’t very intimidating on it’s own merit he needs to be able to locate it consistently in order to be effective. The loss of velocity only heightens those concerns.</p>
<p id="ZYZbJp">Faedo has always had some minor fundamental issues in his delivery. He uses a highly uncommon, offtempo slinging motion without much drive and hip speed rotation. It’s not ideal in that Faedo doesn’t get very good extension, and doesn’t use his lower half to generate balanced speed the way you’d like to see. Still, when the whole package is clicking, it works. Hitters may have a harder time reading the ball out of his hand than they would if he utilized a more standard delivery. </p>
<p id="58BvVA">Unfortunately, that asset quickly becomes a detriment when it isn’t working. It gets in the way of his command (drink), may present an increased risk of injury (drink), and stifles the movement on his fastball (drink). There’s a lot of work to be done if the Tigers want to tone down this noisy, complex delivery.</p>
<p id="jR1utJ">Finally, his changeup has fallen out of favor. We speculated in last year’s report that Faedo would benefit from throwing the pitch with more frequency to keep hitters from adapting to his slider, <a href="https://www.freep.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2018/06/29/detroit-tigers-alex-faedo-erie-seawolves/742325002/">which he did in 2018</a>. But despite that increased frequency, it was a below-average pitch that failed to impress. It was once viewed as a future plus offering, so there is projection for the pitch, it just has a longer way to go than we had hoped. </p>
<p id="1etpcu">All tallied, there are a lot of issues to be concerned with. If Faedo’s fastball sits 90 mph, even with good life, there’s even less separation between his secondary offerings, reducing the quality of the overall mix. In that scenario, there really isn’t even a strong relief profile to fall back on. A pitcher with a good-but-not-great slider and little else to offer is going to be hard pressed to provide any value at the major league level. So while this is only year two of the Faedo experience, the pressure to turn things around is going to be very high for him heading into spring camp.</p>
<h3 id="hbIyb1">Projected Team: Double-A Erie SeaWolves</h3>
<p id="xXPOg3">Unfortunately. Alex Faedo isn’t looking the part of the high-floor, slider-monster the Tigers were hoping for. He’s got a fight ahead of him to work his way through the upper minors and recapture the status he once had as one of minor league baseball’s better pitching prospects. There’s still a chance that he reaches his ceiling of an durable mid-rotation starter, but pitching in a major league rotation looks much less like a slam-dunk than it once did. He hit a wall in Double-A, so that’s the logical starting point in 2019. Detroit will give him every chance to succeed as a starter, and that rebound will have to begin in a SeaWolves uniform.</p>
<div id="eYBRtA"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.2493%;"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/MD2xiipcPag?rel=0" style="border: 0; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute;" allowfullscreen="" scrolling="no" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media"></iframe></div></div>
<p id="ySsqsz"><em>h/t J. Chipman for the video</em></p>
https://www.blessyouboys.com/2019/2/12/18213561/detroit-tigers-prospect-rankings-scouting-report-alex-faedoJacob Markle