Bless You Boys - Game 38: Detroit Tigers at St. Louis CardinalsA detailed list of nope about the Detroit Tigershttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/47585/default.png2015-05-17T23:04:38-04:00http://www.blessyouboys.com/rss/stream/83813762015-05-17T23:04:38-04:002015-05-17T23:04:38-04:00Cardinals 2, Tigers 1: Offense goes M.I.A.
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<figcaption>Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The Tigers' offense went missing in a loss to the Cardinals, but they still took two of three on the road.</p> <p>Despite losing two consecutive games at home to open the series, the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/">St. Louis Cardinals</a> entered tonight's game with the best record in baseball. The <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/">Detroit Tigers</a> missed a chance to sweep baseball's best team in their own ballpark, going 0-for-6 with runners in scoring position in a 2-1 loss.</p>
<p>The Tigers jumped on Cardinals starter <span>Lance Lynn</span> early, scoring a run in the top of the first. <span>Ian Kinsler</span> battled Lynn for nine pitches, then singled to right-center field. Miguel Cabrera followed up Kinsler's hit with a double to the wall, scoring Kinsler from first.</p>
<p>After James McCann threw out <span>Kolten Wong</span> to end the second inning, <span>Alfredo Simon</span> gave up a leadoff triple to center fielder <span>Peter Bourjos</span> to start the third. Bourjos came in to score on a sharp RBI single from Lynn, tying the game. The two starters traded scoreless innings in the fourth and fifth, dancing out of varying degrees of trouble along the way. Kolten Wong gave the Cardinals the lead in the bottom of the sixth with a long solo home run to right field.</p>
<p>After Simon worked out of yet another jam to end the inning, he was removed for a pinch hitter in the top of the seventh. With James McCann on third base and two outs, <span>Brad Ausmus</span> used <span>Victor Martinez</span> as a pinch hitter, his first plate appearance of the series. Martinez popped out in foul territory to end the inning, leaving yet another runner stranded on base.</p>
<p>The Tigers squandered another chance to tie the game in the eighth. After walks to Kinsler and Cabrera chased Lynn from the game, <span>J.D. Martinez</span> grounded into a first-pitch double play to end the threat.</p>
<h5>ROARS:</h5>
<p><b><span>Yoenis Cespedes</span>:</b> He went 0-for-3 at the plate with a strikeout in a key situation, but Cespedes made a pair of excellent defensive plays to make up for it. Cespedes threw out <span>Jhonny Peralta</span> at the plate to end the seventh inning, preserving a one-run deficit for the Tigers.</p>
<p><b>Ian Kinsler:</b> Two more hits for Kinsler, who also drew a walk. Despite reaching base three times in front of the heart of the order, Kinsler only scored one run.</p>
<p><b>Alfredo Simon:</b> It wasn't pretty at times, but Simon gave the Tigers another solid performance with two runs allowed in six innings.</p>
<h5>HISSES:</h5>
<p><b>The offense:</b> There were chances, but the Tigers did not score after the first inning. They were hitless with runners in scoring position.</p>
<h5>STREAKS AND STATS:</h5>
<ul>
<li><span><span>Miguel Cabrera's</span> RBI double in the top of the first was his 17th extra base hit of the year and his 30th RBI, tying him for the American League lead. It was his 1,399th RBI of his career.</span></li>
<li><span>Ian Kinsler had a pair of hits, notching his 18th multi-hit game of the season. He has multiple hits in eight of his past 14 games.</span></li>
<li><span>Yoenis Cespedes threw out Jhonny Peralta at the plate to end the seventh inning, notching his fourth outfield assist of the season. He leads all of baseball with 20 outfield assists since the start of 2014.</span></li>
</ul>
<h5>WIN PROBABILITY GRAPH:</h5>
<p><iframe style="border:1px solid black;" width="450" height="450" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" src="http://www.fangraphs.com/graphframe.aspx?config=0&static=0&type=livewins&num=0&h=450&w=450&date=2015-05-17&team=Cardinals&dh=0"></iframe><br><span>Source: <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/livewins.aspx?date=2015-05-17&team=Cardinals&dh=0&season=2015">FanGraphs</a></span></p>
https://www.blessyouboys.com/2015/5/17/8618665/detroit-tigers-st-louis-cardinals-game-38-recapRob Rogacki2015-05-17T10:32:37-04:002015-05-17T10:32:37-04:00Game 38 Preview: Tigers at Cardinals
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<figcaption>Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>The Cardinals have baseball's best record, but the Tigers are going for a sweep tonight.</p> <h4>
<a href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Detroit Tigers</a> (23-14) at <a href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">St. Louis Cardinals</a> (24-12)</h4>
<p><b>Time/Place:</b> 8:05 p.m., Busch Stadium</p>
<p><b>SB Nation blog:</b> <a href="http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/" target="_blank">Viva El Birdos</a></p>
<p><b>Media:</b> ESPN, <a href="http://detroit.tigers.mlb.com/det/schedule/radioaffiliates.jsp" target="_blank">Tigers Radio Network</a></p>
<p><b>Pitching Matchup:</b> RHP <span>Alfredo Simon</span> (4-1, 3.05 ERA) vs. RHP <span>Lance Lynn</span> (2-3, 3.27 ERA)</p>
<table border="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Pitcher</td>
<td>GS</td>
<td>IP</td>
<td>K/9</td>
<td>BB/9</td>
<td>HR/9</td>
<td>WHIP</td>
<td>FIP</td>
<td>SIERA</td>
<td>fWAR</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Simon</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>44.1</td>
<td>5.89</td>
<td>2.23</td>
<td>0.61</td>
<td>1.20</td>
<td>3.53</td>
<td>4.29</td>
<td>0.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Lynn</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>41.1</td>
<td>11.10</td>
<td>3.05</td>
<td>0.44</td>
<td>1.28</td>
<td>2.40</td>
<td>3.05</td>
<td>1.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>It sure would be nice to have a guy like Lance Lynn. Drafted by the Cardinals in the supplemental round of the 2008 amateur draft, Lynn progressed quickly through the minors until he spent nearly two full seasons at Triple A. He debuted with the Cardinals during their 2011 <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/world-series" class="sbn-auto-link">World Series</a> run, logging some high leverage relief innings (he worked a scoreless eighth inning in Game 7). Lynn joined the rotation in 2012 and has been there ever since, despite the gripes of some Cardinals fans.</p>
<div class="pane sports_data_widget lineup clearfix sidebar">
<h3>Today's Lineups</h3>
<div class="lineup">
<table class="zebra" cellspacing="0">
<thead>
<tr>
<th align="left">DETROIT TIGERS</th> <th align="left">ST. LOUIS CARDINALS</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="td-last td-name">
<span>Anthony Gose</span> - CF</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">
<span>Jason Heyward</span> - RF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td-last td-name">
<span>Ian Kinsler</span> - 2B</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">
<span>Matt Carpenter</span> - 3B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td-last td-name">
<span>Miguel Cabrera</span> - 1B</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Matt Holliday - LF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td-last td-name">
<span>J.D. Martinez</span> - RF</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Jhonny Peralta - SS</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td-last td-name">
<span>Yoenis Cespedes</span> - LF</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Matt Adams - 1B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td-last td-name">
<span>Nick Castellanos</span> - 3B</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">
<span>Yadier Molina</span> - C</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td-last td-name">
<span>James McCann</span> - C</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">
<span>Kolten Wong</span> - 2B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td-last td-name">
<span>Jose Iglesias</span> - SS</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">
<span>Peter Bourjos</span> - CF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td-last td-name">Alfredo Simon - RHP</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Lance Lynn - RHP</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</div>
<p>Why would Cardinals fans gripe about a guy that has averaged 194 innings and a 3.48 ERA in his last three seasons? For one, Lynn has underperformed his FIP by a fair margin in two of those years. In 2012 and 2013, Lynn had a combined 3.88 ERA, but a 3.38 FIP. He has been prone to prolonged rough stretches, such as the one in 2012 when he allowed a 4.96 ERA from mid-June onward (beginning with a loss to the Tigers). He has struggled to get lefthanders out, allowing a .355 on-base percentage and .155 ISO in his career. Those numbers improved in 2014, but have regressed back to career norms so far in 2015.</p>
<p>Lynn's arsenal also doesn't inspire a lot of confidence despite the extensive good-but-not-great track record. Lynn has thrown his fastball over 70 percent of the time in his career, one of the higher usage rates you will see. He upped that rate to nearly 80 percent in 2014 and had the best ERA of his career, though that seems to be due to a slight drop in BABIP and rise in strand rate. Lynn's fastball isn't a mid-90s rocket -- it sits in the 92-93 mile per hour range -- but a long stride during his delivery makes it more deceptive than you would expect. Lynn also features a cutter, curveball, and changeup, but the fastball is his bread-and-butter no matter what count he is in.</p>
<p>My skepticism for Alfredo Simon is wearing thin. After a pair of rough outings for the 34-year-old righthander, Simon bounced back in a big way against the <a href="https://www.twinkietown.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Minnesota Twins</a>, allowing just one run on six hits in 7 2/3 innings. He leads the Tigers' rotation with four wins and a 3.05 ERA, and his 1.19 WHIP is decimal points better than Anibal Sanchez's. Simon has a 2.64 strikeout-to-walk ratio and has continued to limit home runs, resulting in a 3.54 FIP (which also leads the rotation).</p>
<p>Simon had similar numbers at this point in 2014, but there are a few key differences between last year and the 2015 season. The big one -- and my main reason for optimism -- is that Simon has a .285 BABIP this year, which is in line with his career .282 BABIP. Through seven starts last season, Simon's BABIP was .212. He has maintained a solid walk rate through his first seven starts this year, but has allowed fewer home runs and tallied more strikeouts. Simon already has three starts with six strikeouts or more this season, something he didn't do until the All-Star Break last year.</p>
<p><b>Hitter to fear:</b> <span>Matt Adams</span> (.429/.500/1.143 in 8 plate appearances)<br><b>Hitter to fail:</b> <span>Matt Holliday</span> (.188/.381/.188 in 21 plate appearances)</p>
<p>Simon has seen the Cardinals plenty of times over the past few years during his time with the <a href="https://www.redreporter.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Cincinnati Reds</a>, but mostly as a reliever. He made three starts against the Redbirds last season -- all in the second half -- holding them to a 3.44 ERA. Simon gave up 20 hits in 18 1/3 innings, and had 10 strikeouts to six walks. Despite the career 1.34 WHIP, not many Cardinals have had much success against Simon. Yadier Molina and Matt Adams are both hitting above .300, but the current roster is hitting just .220 with a .298 on-base percentage. If you take away pitcher at-bats, that batting average actually <i>drops</i> to .212.</p>
<h5>Outlook</h5>
<p>Lynn's fastball-heavy approach is an interesting matchup with this Tigers offense. Fangraphs ranks the Tigers as the sixth-best team in baseball against fastballs this season. Meanwhile, PitchFX ranks Lynn's fastball as the second-best in the National League, behind only Max Scherzer. The Tigers roughed up Lynn in their only previous matchup back in 2012, but that lineup had more left-handed batters and featured only one player who is still around today -- two, if you count now-Cardinals shortstop <span>Jhonny Peralta</span>. Now more experienced, Lynn should have an easier time navigating the Tigers lineup, but taking two out of three isn't bad.</p>
<h5>Prediction</h5>
<p>Lynn slows down the Tigers' offense and the Cardinals win their 25th game of the year.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;" class="p1"><span class="s1">★★★</span></p>
<p><i>Editor's Note: SB Nation's partner FanDuel is hosting a <a href="http://partners.fanduel.com/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_6819b_970" target="_blank">$100,000 one-day fantasy baseball league</a> today. It's $3 to join and first place wins $8,000. Enter now!</i></p>
https://www.blessyouboys.com/2015/5/17/8615319/detroit-tigers-st-louis-cardinals-game-38-preview-2015Rob Rogacki